Hosken Bombo Disco

The Twins might really like Gordon. Not an unreasonable position. I don't think Jay should be much of a consideration, though he is a lefty and has stuff, so maybe he could be?

On Monday, Rhett Bollinger of MLB wrote that the Minnesota Twins are still more likely to upgrade their pitching rotation for 2018 through free agency than by trade. And on Tuesday, MLB Trade Rumors reported off of a 1500 ESPN tweet that pitchers’ agents were getting the sense that the Twins (i.e., Derek Falvey and Thad Levine) were putting off talks until Yu Darvish announces his decision to sign. Reading between the lines, one can interpret these reports to mean that the Twins have not been in much communication with free agent pitchers waiting to sign contracts this offseason. But does an absence of communication mean that the Twins are failing to communicate? A story Thursday in the New York Times (h/t dougd) suggests that Levine is one of the more skilled baseball executives in using alternative means to communicate (such as text messaging) with players, agents, or other major league personnel. "...today, we negotiate hundreds of millions of dollars of contracts and make massive trades without ever picking up the phone and speaking directly with one another, let alone meeting face to face,” Levine said. “You kind of learn the personalities of guys—who needs a phone call, who can do it on text, who prefers emails, who likes to be lighthearted. "The art of the negotiation has almost been trumped by the art of communication." This makes the news that the Twins have not met in person with Darvish much easier to take. Meanwhile, back in December, the Twins were reportedly offered Gerrit Cole in exchange for prospects Nick Gordon, Zack Granite, and Tyler Jay, according to the news site Pirates Breakdown. https://twitter.com/pbcbreakdown/status/940390540998250497 Many Twins fans, including myself, liked this trade idea. (See here, here, here, or here —and the proposals offered by Twins fans in these threads were actually not far off the mark in terms of value.) The stat we know as WAR is not how we evaluate pitchers during the season, but it can be a good, broad gauge of general value. In terms of fWAR, the two sides of a Cole/Gordon/Granite trade match up well. Fangraphs projects Cole to provide 3.8 fWAR in 2018; let's add 3.8 fWAR more for 2019. That makes 7.6 fWAR for the final two team-controlled seasons of Cole coming from Pittsburgh. How much fWAR will the Twins prospects provide? The 2017 midseason KATOH+ projections estimate that Granite will contribute 6.8 fWAR through his six team-controlled MLB seasons, while Gordon will accumulate 6.3 worth of fWAR across his six seasons. Throw in a generous 2.0 fWAR for Jay as a relief pitcher, and the total contribution of the prospects coming from the Twins is 15.1 fWAR. In such a Gerrit Cole trade as proposed above, the Twins would trade away a future 15.1 fWAR in exchange for Cole’s 7.6 fWAR as a starter for the next two seasons. That looks unequal, but posters on the Dozier trade discussion threads last winter found that MLB-for-prospect trades often lean heavily to one side in this way. A risk premium on the speculative nature of unpredictable prospects, perhaps. In any case, the barstool argument in favor of the trade may be more effective than the mathematical or financial analysis. Gordon and Granite are good players, but their production can be replaced. The Twins have Jermaine Palacios and Royce Lewis playing shortstop in the minors behind Nick Gordon, and have Jorge Polanco and other capable shortstops on the Major League team already. As for Granite, I would not count on him getting enough playing time to contribute much fWAR anyway, the maturing young Twins outfield being what it is. And the bottom line is the Twins badly need starting pitching in 2018. Now compare Cole to Darvish. Fangraphs projects Cole for 3.8 fWAR in 2018, while Darvish is projected only for 3.6 fWAR in 2018. Consider that Darvish’s contract will fetch more than $20 million per season for each of the next five or six seasons; Cole will not earn $20 million over the next two seasons together. Moreover, Cole might be motivated to pitch his best in order to increase his value in free agency following 2019. Through the quiet offseason to this point, and assuming Pittsburgh is still interested in a trade, Cole has looked like a solid alternative to Yu Darvish, maybe even better. Cole is younger and will not tie up salary beyond 2019, and might even present a July trade opportunity for the Twins if the 2019 season goes sideways. Beyond 2018 and 2019, the success of the Twins will depend on their ability to develop their own starting pitching. Darvish might help win some games in future seasons, but those wins will cost a lot of money, and possibly at the expense of extending one or two of the Twins young outfielders. Levine’s "negotiation" with Darvish this winter has put me at ease somewhat. Levine's knowledge of Darvish from their days in Texas suggests to me that the Twins are not concerned about Darvish’s health, nor his motivation to pitch after he signs this nine-figure deal. And a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow; figure on that annual salary at the end of Darvish’s contract to not look so bad as it does now, once those latter years finally arrive. I still prefer a trade for Cole, combined perhaps with a signing of Alex Cobb. But if the Twins really do sign Darvish — and my gut gives them a better than 50/50 chance at it — I imagine I will be amazed, thrilled, and fired up for the 2018 season. Such a signing will instantly put Minnesota almost on par with most other teams in the American League, and will give them a dependable arm for the next several seasons. But it's Darvish’s decision to make. If Levine has misjudged Darvish and Darvish chooses to sign with another team, and other subsequent options fail to break for the Twins, the Twins would find themselves going into 2018 without the addition of a single starting pitcher. For a young, talented team that made a strong run in 2017, this would be quite a blow. To borrow a great metaphor from another TwinsDaily poster in another thread, the Twins are playing a game of musical chairs, and if Darvish signs with another team, the Twins might find themselves without a chair when the music stops. Let's hope the personal relationship and commitment Thad Levine and Yu Darvish have together is real. My gut tells me it is.

It will be interesting to watch what happens. Mauer is a great fielder. I would let him play here as long as he wants and is effective, but for a low salary and year to year.

all season long, I remember predicting he was going to "come back to earth." Never did - egg on face. Maybe he's just a really, really good hitter.

I realize you only linked to the article and didn't necessarily endorse it (all of it) but I'm curious about what you (or anyone) think of this snippet: "Supporting Bissen should be easy, and right now, that’s the best we can do. But if it comes to turning against the Twins, I know that will be hard for many. But remember, if you don’t, you’re saying that powerful men can do whatever they want, and that violence against women is okay."

At this point I would prefer 4 years of a Cobb contract to Darvish. Years 5 and 6 of a Darvish contract scare me, those will be the first years of a possible Berrios and Buxton extension. A trade would be better still and the Twins have the minor league pieces for one.

Thanks for clarifying. I also thought you laid it out really well in the other thread. It's near impossible to address all aspects of this issue thoughtfully, in just a single essay or blog post. It's bigger than any one of us.

I appreciate your story. I was writing a confused reply with a lot of thoughts and interrelated questions but might be better to focus on just one. I don't think "what the Twins knew" is a question for another day. If the Me Too movement really is about smashing the male-dominated power structures and exposing abuses like these, then the Twins as a team need to be penalized sharply to be made an example of that MLB will not tolerate any such abuse going forward. If a person is not on board with sanctioning the Twins in some way, then that person is not really on board with this movement. That's how I see this. Thoughts?

I tend to agree. I was playing around with a Sano-Archer trade possibility on another thread a couple weeks ago and wrote that I thought the Rays would say No. Good pitching is just so valuable and Sano still has some maturing to do (as a player or otherwise). And the Rays simply aren't as motivated to trade as, say, Pittsburgh seems to be.

In two more years, I think Berrios might be as good as just about any of those free agents! However the rest of the Twins 2019 rotation figures to be a complete unknown at this time. I am still a David Price fan and maybe he will accept a smaller contract at that time to play for a smaller market than Boston. When the All Star game was in Minneapolis, Price spent his All Star break just bumming around the Twin Cities prior to his team playing the series at Target Field after the break. Maybe the quality of life here could appeal to him (hey, wouldn't hurt to ask).

Sure, but if the client is interested in dragging this out until January, there's no point in going hard at him in November.

I was posting this on another thread but will post it here. By the way, welcome! I saw in the other thread how you want to blog and you would have a lot to contribute with your background. Anyway, I am very much a proponent of a trade (for a starter) rather than signing Darvish. I have been doing some digging for a blog post I wanted to do myself, about trading our prospect(s). The long and short is I think prospects -- any prospects below the top Mauer/Harper/Trout/Bryant/Buxton/Alex Gordon no. 1 or 2 level -- they are overrated, not to say bad players, just too much projecting of greatness that doesn't materialize. I have always felt this and now even more so. I think Nick Gordon will develop into a regular player with a couple good seasons here and there, but I think trading him for two years of Cole would be a good gamble to take. the Moneyball strategy of trading a good prospect is that you do not have a declining Darvish on the books for $20 million a season when it comes time to extend Buxton and Berrios. There is a load of talent in the AL coming up right behind the Twins (Boston, Houston, White Sox) and the Twins window with this core might be now, not three years from now. I am ok with the cheap signings they have made thus far if it is backed up by a trade for an established starter. There's my long winded response, which blogs are good for.

but, I think they are seriously pursuing him. Or, maybe they think they are seriously pursuing him. Where we agree is I don't think Darvish is their best option, dollar for dollar.

Been pretty quiet with the Darvish rumors. Maybe Darvish is deciding on which salad dressing to try at his next front office dinner meeting? Or has he even decided which team's front office to meet with next?

Interesting data. Half serious question -- will Castro put down a sign for delivery slot, as well as pitch type?

Zach Duke. I don't see the upgrade over anyone currently fighting for a spot but I hope he works out. I assume they will keep it stretched to an 8-man bullpen again, which I have as: Rodney Duke Kinley Rogers Hildenberger probably Busenitz +2 more, out of Moya, Pressly, Duffey, Hughes, Mejia (might start, though that is shaky). That leaves 3 starting spots in the rotation to fill, 2 if you give Gibson a spot (likely).

How often did the Twins put Adrianza in the outfield, Gimenez at first, or go without an extra pinch hitter or pinch runner last year, because Haley was taking a Rule 5 roster spot and only pitching in a handful of games? Asking for a friend.

Thanks for the clarification. I am leaning towards "not interested" in Darvish, especially if he wants to drag this negotiation out through mid-January. Sounds like Gerrit Cole could be acquired for less, and sooner, and Berrios might be better than Darvish after a couple more years anyway.

Either that, or they feel they are out completely. (which imho could be a blessing)

LENIII says the Twins know that if they want to sign Darvish, they will need to offer him the biggest contract in team history. ("Club record offer" is how he describes it.) Does he mean in terms of total dollars? Mauer signed for 8/184 in 2010. Early estimates for Darvish were around 6/140, but if Darvish is demanding close to $200 million, at that price we gotta let him go somewhere else and not let the door hit him on the way out, right?

Nothing special about Pineda; just give us whichever broken armed guy is left over

Well, that's a little different. I think the Twins still have the advantage. (though would still prefer a trade for a guy like Cole than tie up 100MM for the next half decade)

So.... Cubs exploring free agent market? Heyman for the win!

Still a great post:

awesome. Thank you!