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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    Then you should want a lot fewer teams. Expanded playoffs means nobody has a good chance of winning. In a 14 team playoff the favorite ends up at around 10% chance to win it all. The worst playoff teams would have about a 5% chance to win. Play 162 games, win 90 and your reward is a 1 in 14 chance to win it all (7%). That's about the same chance as any NCAA team that makes the Sweet Sixteen. For the NCAA in the past 32 years 8 times had two #1 seeds in the championship game (25%) [equivalent to MLB division winners] 5 times the #1 ranked overall team won the championship (15%) 2 times had no #1 seed in the Final 4 (7%) [equivalent to MLB all wild-cards]
  2. DJL44
    They probably would. That's why the players wanted less revenue sharing and a higher luxury tax. Some teams will spend money and others are content to suck and make money. Nothing is going to convince Pittsburgh to spend money. If there is a minimum payroll they'll fill the roster with other team's bad contracts (if they're injured even better) and get paid by the rich teams to do that.
  3. DJL44
    Both sides benefit from shorter games with more balls in play but they haven't seemed to figure that one out.
  4. DJL44
    Why would the average pay at DH be significantly higher than the average pay at any other position? They can play rookies at DH just like they do everywhere else.
  5. DJL44
    No, they'd walk out in September (assuming the continued negotiations were fruitless) so they got paid for the season but the owners wouldn't get the playoff dollars.
  6. DJL44
    If they open camps the players under contract would show up and the owners would have to pay them. Opening up spring training camps would be the owners caving, not the players. This is a lockout, not a strike.
  7. DJL44
    Yes, it is exactly that simple. I think I'll buy a team tomorrow.
  8. DJL44
    Baseball teams have much more parity than you think. This isn't like the NBA. Bad teams routinely win 3 game series against good teams. .500 teams routinely win season series against the best teams. The biggest advantage you'll see is about a 60% chance to win a playoff series. A 14 game playoff will have the top 2 teams making it to the World Series about as often as that happens in the NCAA tournament.
  9. DJL44
    The minimum salary sets the floor. If anything MLBPA started too low.
  10. DJL44
    Why do minor league baseball players need $50,000 a year? They only play 6 months, isn't $3000 a month enough? Double-A players are already making $2400/month plus housing. That's probably where single-A should start with Double-A and Triple-A at $3000/month plus housing but $8300/month seems excessive.
  11. DJL44
    If they get 14 playoff teams you'll never need to worry about competitive balance again.
  12. DJL44
    The situation that had me yelling at the TV was during the World Series. Ozzie Albies was up and hitting lefty. He only hits .237/.295/.454 from that side of the plate. They moved the fielders to the right of where shortstop normally covers; left side of the infield is open. He's a pretty fast baserunner. All he had to do was drop a bunt to the left side. Nope, grounded out to the second baseman. If you're a power hitter who normally posts 1000 OPS then do your normal thing. If you struggle to break a .750 OPS and they give you a base hit, take it.
  13. DJL44
    Power wins ballgames. The only way baseball will "tire" of the strategy is if HR are harder to come by. Until then they'll try to build a lineup of 9 guys who hit 30 HR.
  14. DJL44
    I agree, 2B has become much less demanding than 3B. P/C/SS/CF/3B/RF/2B/LF/1B Second base stays ahead of LF because they have to be able to turn the double play. One consequence of the universal DH is average defense at 1B and LF will increase slightly. The 15 worst fielders who could hit well enough to play those positions will move to DH. They will be replaced by 15 players who field better than them.
  15. DJL44
    Very unlikely. Modern batting averages are too low to sustain a .400 OBP. 10th best OBP in MLB during 2021 was .375. Anything above .370 is excellent.
  16. DJL44
    Surprised to see no votes at all for Danny DeAndrade. Guess we can call him a sleeper.
  17. DJL44
    That's where the outfielders will come from
  18. DJL44
    If he strikes out less he will also walk less. Some of those strikeouts are coming on close pitches in 3-2 counts. If a pitch is on the corner and is only called a strike 50% of the time a batter will have a .500 OBP on that pitch. Take it and don't swing.
  19. DJL44
    They own quite a bit of that media so they're pretty sure their spin will make the papers.
  20. DJL44
    Fangraphs called Miranda a 2B and compared him to Ty France. The defensive demands at 3B are higher now than they were 10 years ago due to increased defensive shifting. It is almost a "second shortstop" position now 2022 Top 100 Prospects | FanGraphs Baseball.
  21. DJL44
    If he doesn't end up at SS long term I think 3B is a good fit. With the shift we are seeing more expected from defense at 3B and less at 2B.
  22. DJL44
    I'm pretty sure they won't miss Nick Gordon if they sign Trevor Story. Gordon probably passes through waivers unclaimed.
  23. DJL44
    A #2-#3 starter would be worth as much as an average 3B or more. If the top pitching prospects are #2-#3 starters they should be ranked ahead of Miranda. If they aren't as valuable as an average 3B then the team is going to have a rotation full of #4 starters. That's bad. That means they shouldn't expect to contend any time soon.
  24. DJL44
    If the prospects ranked below him can't meet the "legit good starter" bar then this pitching staff is in serious trouble.
  25. DJL44
    I compared him to 35 year old Josh Donaldson
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