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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    After that trade I'd be content to just acquire the rest of the Reds rotation at those prices. Sign me up for Mahle and Castillo.
  2. DJL44
    There is a non-zero chance Peguero has a better career than Petty.
  3. DJL44
    The draft lottery seems like a solution in search of a problem
  4. DJL44
    So is the split change his best pitch or his 3rd best pitch which he is afraid to throw?
  5. DJL44
    This is an obvious no. They're trying to win enough games to keep the fans buying tickets until the Vikings start training camp. Profit is maximized by finishing 5th-8th in the American League.
  6. DJL44
    Injury-risk players are going to slide right out of the first round. You can always go over slot but now you can only go down to 75% of slot. Better to grab those guys in the 5th round or lower. Also, doesn't this mean that there is less flexibility signing players for way below slot? Top 300 players is anyone selected in the top 8 rounds. Is the 'top 300' ranking before or after the draft happens?
  7. DJL44
    I like this trade. The Twins trade a 1/2 time player for a full time starter at shortstop, plus they get a live arm as a sweetener. The Twins get the younger player who is better at defense at a position that is a gaping black hole in the organization at the upper levels. Yes, they should be looking for a backup catcher for depth but a catch-and-throw guy is not hard to acquire. People may be disappointed that this means the Twins are 100% out on Trevor Story but honestly, you never believed that was going to happen, right?
  8. DJL44
    I'd love to see them buy out K-F arb years and lock him up to age 30. He's a great candidate for an extension coming off a relatively low base salary.
  9. DJL44
    I'm not sure the A's are going to do that anymore. They are going to receive revenue sharing money now after being excluded in the last CBA. That should provide them enough resources to keep their entire roster.
  10. DJL44
    From Kubatko: “The minor league minimum salary for players signing a second major league contract or with prior big league service will increase from $93,000 in 2021 to $114,100 in 2022, $117,400 in 2023, $120,600 in 2024, $123,900 in 2025 and $127,100 in 2026.”
  11. DJL44
    It would be a very Twins strategy to play for the 14th spot when there are only 12 playoff teams.
  12. DJL44
    I don't understand penalizing a team for being bad two years in a row. Most teams that are bad are bad two years in a row. It takes time to improve the roster of the worst team in the league. Some of the teams accused of "tanking" just suck. It wasn't intentional.
  13. DJL44
    I think I figured out the problem with the Pirates analytics department
  14. DJL44
    That's because it's nearly impossible to draft and develop well enough to win if you never retain any of your talent when it gets expensive. Plus, none of your talent is going to want to sign as a free agent because they'll be doomed to losing for their whole contract. Not really a compelling way to attract fans. "Be patient and we might get lucky once every 30 years! We're going to suck in the meantime so you might want to buy an extra beer at concessions for the next decade." Right. Revenue sharing means you don't need fans anymore. That's kind of the root of the problem.
  15. DJL44
    But for those 20 years you couldn't describe the Royals as "trying to win". Sure, they'll take a shot if the stars align and they accidentally get lucky once every 20 years. In the meantime they'll go through the motions and cash checks. Free agency wins may cost $8M each on average, but every team is getting enough revenue sharing money to add 10-12 wins by that metric. If you save up two years worth of revenue sharing money you can buy 20 wins on the open market. Every team is within 20 wins of contention.
  16. DJL44
    I'm going to call BS on the Pirates "never" being able to compete through payroll. There are plenty of teams who are able to compete with a $100M payroll. That number is affordable for any team in baseball. There are a lot of things a team can do with a marginal $75M.
  17. DJL44
    Any data from baseball games themselves is open source. If there is additional data it must be from practices - Rapsodo and Blast Motion, etc. How much practice time is being spent on data generation so the analytics team can have something to do at work? I'm saying for the Pirates the whole analytics department is irrelevant. They can finish 57-105 with no analytics team at all. Why spend $20M on analytics and finish 61-101? It's still last place by a country mile. That's like a business hiring a bunch of people to analyze the market for new products and deciding not to pursue any of the opportunities. Why do the analysis if you aren't going to act on any of the information? Just cut the department.
  18. DJL44
    I think the large market teams are quite happy with this arrangement. "We'll pay your team expenses as long as you don't try to win and ruin our playoff revenue." It sucks for the players when you don't have 30 teams trying to win. It sucks for free agents because their market is smaller. It sucks for the players drafted by those teams knowing they'll never win unless they manage to reach free agency and get signed by a team who is actually trying. The crazy part is some of those rich teams are so bad at knowing how to win (ex: Angels) that they can't do it even with a huge payroll advantage.
  19. DJL44
    Hundreds seems wasteful. What is the 201st analytics guy going to tell you that the 200th guy couldn't? All the Statcast data is available to everyone. There are only so many ways to run a python script on that data. The Pirates won't even spend an extra $20M on player payroll but I'm supposed to believe they're spending that much on an analytics department? How much analyzing does it take to say "we're not spending any money"?
  20. DJL44
    That comment makes it easy. Carl Pohlad and his two kids. Nobody else could afford to put their faces on a mountain.
  21. DJL44
    A typical analytics department is more like a dozen guys. The teams pool their money to get the data. You don't need hundreds of guys analyzing the same data. The Braves are publicly traded so they have to open their books. The Braves Made Some Money in 2021 | FanGraphs Baseball
  22. DJL44
    There are 8 players on the Pirates payroll who aren't making the minimum. Of those, only 4 are making above the $4M average MLB salary. One of those player was suspended and doesn't actually get paid. They're about $18M above minimum payroll. They get roughly $250M in revenue sharing cash.
  23. DJL44
    Rickey hit nearly 300 HR.
  24. DJL44
    Isn't that what they've been doing since the last CBA?
  25. DJL44
    MLB teams are fantastic tax shelters and great ways to extort municipal governments for cheap land to develop. That's what the owners care about. The baseball team tied to all of those tax advantages is mostly a nuisance. A significant number of team owners no longer care if their team ever wins anything. They would love to break the union and bring in scabs from the independent leagues at $50,000 a piece. They are convinced none of the fans would be able to tell the difference. The fans they're targeting are the obnoxiously wealthy and compulsive gamblers. They'll make baseball as culturally irrelevant as boxing and horse racing.
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