Jham

Duffy featuring a change up today? Or are those curves that aren't biting?

Agreed. I think most people who wanted him sent down was for defense or discipline.

The reports from many minor league scouts was that he couldn't stick at 3rd as well. He's already been moved to the "easier position" so I'd be less patient. Mauer to 3rd will never happen. Mauer to DH and Sano to 1st is more likely in my mind at some point. The argument that Sano can be an average defensive 3rd basemen but couldn't play first with a bigger glove and fewer configurations makes my head spin. This is probably going to be extremely unpopular, but I'd consider extending Plouffe for something like 2 years $12mil. He would probably take FA over that, but you never know. It would give us the ability to turn Dozier for prospects or hopefully pitching. This gets Polanco in. I could roll with Sano, Plouffe, and Mauer on a rotation at 3rd/1st/DH. I can roll with Polanco at 2nd and Esco at short. I can roll without Park, Vargas, ABW3, or Palka. None of whom are better than Plouffe. Sort of boring, but you get your ideal infield minus Dozier plus Polanco if he Sano works out, and a cheap veteran 3rd basemen if he doesn't.

Who's tearing him down? Who's hating? He's a fantastic player, but far from complete. People disagree on the best way of managing his talent, and if it's not straight up let Sano do whatever he wants, its hating? If I said Mackenzie Alexander should have stayed at Clemson, picked off 3 passes next season, won another ACC Championship and BCS bowl appearance, and been the 1st corner off the board in 2017 instead of entering the 2016 draft and going in the 2nd round, am I a hater? Do I have less belief in his talent? There are posters in this thread (Brock) who are comparing Sano to Miguel Cabrera. The implication is that if a Sano is not a top 10 hitter all time, fans will never be satisfied. Can our logic extend the other way? That if we don't believe Sano is as good a hitter as Cab or Trout or Pujols, that doesn't mean we think he's a garbage player who needs extended AAA at bats or an attitude overhaul?

So there seemed to be a little confusion as to my post. I'll clarify. I was in the camp that questioned Sano's attitude while slumping and working to improve off last season's "take the league by storm" debut. I'm also on the record as saying that I would not send him down, that I think a couple benchings would send an adequate message, especially since his production still helps the team, even if it's somewhat short of our lofty hopes and expectations. I'm cautioning those who think a good weekend suddenly means the light's on and Sano will stop over-extending counts, or laying off down and in and high and hard. Or that this is somehow proof that Sano doesn't have a weight/defense/attitude/hitting approach/swing problem. It's a good weekend from a player we know has the talent to carry a team in spurts. Does he have the professionalism, work ethic, heart, and concentration to carry a franchise for a decade? He probably has the talent to do so, but even his skills need development to get to that point. Finally, if the talk of demotion was meant to send a message, it certainly appears that it worked without having to send him down. Like many young players, I think a lot of it comes to dedication and attention to detail, especially in August and especially when you're in last place. We had a whole thread discussing how to motivate and discipline Sano without upsetting him or having him push back. Extremely difficult when he's one of your best players and vital to our future. It looks like maybe the right amount of finesse was used to get Sano's attention without sending him down and without upsetting the future of the franchise. Of course, like I said, it was just one weekend, but by appearances, whatever strategy was employed, by luck or by grace, seemed to work.

It was a single weekend in which he may have been playing for his roster spot. Let's see if he can put in the work to sustain that success. Hopefully he won't need the threat of demotion to get him going anymore. Message sent and heard!

I thought the same thing, and did consider a line-up shift in which no one is humanely executed would be a slight positive despite the relative unlikeliness of the alternative...

I'm holding bullish on Gibson right now. I don't know what his trade value is, but I like his chances more than the chances of his probable return. Also, why would any team intentionally downgrade their rotation in order to obtain Vargas and ABW3? No team is going to trade a number 2 for quantity of return. Including Dozier, Buxton, Sano, or Kepler would be our only real shot. Projects and upside may return a piece, an expensive mid-rotation guy, or a bottom rotation type. But what's the point? I'm more in favor of some prospect swappage at this point to try to get some guys that are a little further away. We could also get a back up catcher. Perhaps Palka for a Chris Herman type.

Is it safe to say that Kohl Stewart's stuff will never translate into strike out ability? He showed a little glimpse, the way Gibson showed a glimpse last year, but really, he seems pretty highly ranked in prospect lists but the lack of K's would indicate a fairly low ceiling as he gets closer to the big leagues, I would think.

Mostly agree. Technically, Mauer's OPS is more accurate the further we go. Since both numbers are percentages, the larger the sample size, the more curve's shape should plane out. BOTH hot streaks AND cold streaks (and everything in between) are already factored into the number. His prior cold streaks have already diminished the effect of his recent hot streak, and therefore been considered. The only way to improve the accuracy as a predictor is to increase the sample size. If we recalculated his OPS over say the last 2 seasons we'd probably have a much better indication of what type of hitter Mauer is now. Which is to say, despite the recent power streak, the safe money is on Mauer's 2016 and 2017 OPS being well below .800.

Uhhh... is there a race relations problem in the clubhouse I'm not aware of? No reason to keep Plouffe? 1, it's possible he's a waiver trade option. 2. It's possible we try to trade Dozier this offseason, move Polanco to 2nd, and do not feel sure Sano can be an adequate 3rd basemen. 3. We may be able to extend Plouffe for cheap (hometeam discount, injuries, Sano leverage, low 3rd base market,etc). I'm not going to risk the rebuild and chance of contention next season by pushing all-in on Sano at third. We can always non-tender Plouffe this winter if we decide we'd rather keep Dozier. I just can't see keeping both or losing both.

So I asked this question in the game thread the other day, is Chargois better than Michael Tonkin? We burned through all of Tonkin's option years bringing him up when he wasn't ready but had "nothing to prove" in the minors. If he's not better than Tonkin, is Chargois being moved too slowly or too quickly? He's burned option year 1 for 1 appearance at this point... If Chargois isn't better than Tonkin, AND he's the best reliever in the system... are we moving guys up too slow, or does it just seem that way because we don't have actual elite prospects in the pen to compare to, and the major league squad is so dysfunctional that it's hard not to get anxious. In short, I think the overall hope and plan with college relievers is that you can advance them quickly. But then you have to draft the right ones, which we haven't. Hopefully we hit on one in the near future and the discussion will be less hypothetical.

Reported by Fangraphs in 2014 Fastball: 50 / 55 Slider: 40 / 45+ Changeup: 50 / 55 Command: 40 / 50 Future Value: 40 I would think his results would indicate a step up in some of these ratings or development of another pitch. I remember reading his fastball had hit 97. That would indicate he's already met or surpassed his projected fastball rating. It would be interesting to see if the numbers have been retooled at all, particularly that Future Value. He's got a big 6-5 frame. I have no idea what his delivery is like.

And I was actually 1/3rd serious...

Who's better, Chargois or Tonkin?

Will Byron Buxton ever be as good as Raji Davis?

So can I go dig out my broom now?! Dozier!!

His aaa numbers appear solid. I dunno. Power numbers aren't usually flukey without artificial inflation. Seeing Santana go from being a super solid left handed hitter to horrible is just odd. Now this year he's better again from the left. Since this is a Sano thread, and most want Sano to get every chance, it does seem odd that so few want to see Santana given the same opportunity even as a super utility. The age thing has swayed me. At 25, it's too early to give up on him.

I still haven't received a great answer on this, but if Santana's great season was mostly BABIP, where'd the boost in power come from? 27 Doubles 7 triples and 7 HR in 430 at bats... You're not at all curious to see if that can re-emerge? Really only 2015 was horrible, and he had a weird reversal of form, particularly from the left side that was not BABIP attributable. His splits have began to come back this season. It would be weird to suffer through his miserable 2015 only to cut him a month before rosters expand in 2016 after watching him improve somewhat... Close call. Sort of like Arcia. I'm fine either way. Sano needs to stay up for now. It's too early to be sending messages. Other teams' FO notice messages too if it ever comes down to needing to trade Sano.

Santana hit 7 HR in his rookie season, on pace for 10+ over a full year (no BABIP involved). Since then he's hit like 3. Most players develop more power after their rookie year. Something went haywire. I think his switch hitting splits reversed as well, or something odd. Anyway, I'm not sure what it is. I also did not realize he is only 25. It does seem odd to give up on the upside we saw a few years back, but he's really done nothing to warrant a guaranteed roster spot. I sort of think he's playing because a) he's playing relatively well; and he could fit the bill of a potential waiver wire pick-up and could develop a little trade value. I actually think he'll be waived when Plouffe comes off the DL.

Santana has been moderately playable the last month or so. But I think you've hit on a big problem for this group in general. So called scholarships for big prospects and big contracts have hurt this team. I think it started with Joe Nathan rolling in to spring training out of shape, throwing 85, telling everyone it was ok, then throwing 94 come April. That's fine for Joe because that's (supposedly) what he needed, but that mentality became the norm for all vets. Special treatment for veterans and prospects not based on actual ability or health or anything sends a horrible message that it doesn't matter how hard you work or how well you actually play, so long as your old and adequate or highly touted and adequate. I would like to ask those with more knowledge of the situation, who was the leader of those Kernals/Miracle/Snappers/Lookouts squads when Buxton and Sano were on the rise? Based on their personalities, I doubt it was either of them. AB3 maybe? We need someone these kids will listen to and follow. Moli isn't him. Mauer isn't him. I doubt Dozier is him. Hunter is gone.

I'm not sure how to send a message to Sano. I'm not sure whose opinion he respects in the clubhouse. I don't know if any of the players have enough clout to keep him in check. I don't think sending him down is the answer, but I'm not positive it's not. I'd play out the year at DH, with occasional days at 3rd and 1st, where I ultimately believe he'll end up, and if I don't see some improvement, I'd send him to winter league to work on D and having a better plan. He's been swinging at breaking balls in the dirt with 2 strikes, but letting thigh high fastballs go by to open his at bat. I'd let him know that if he opted out of Winter Ball, and came into camp out of shape again, he may start the year in Rochester. Vargas, AB3, Palka, are out of options. Park is probably a major leaguer. I believe Sano has 1 more option season.

http://s2.quickmeme.com/img/f8/f8b00ba3e591b374cea868927f8512ee45d6f5ed3ff4198f2e3d3a0101f24a24.jpg

I like Avila as a stop gap, but I'd role with Zuke again if need be provided we have a legit defensive catcher on the roster as well. In our organization, that's probably Stuart Turner I would think...

If we keep winning, it maybe stay their the rest of the season!! I'll be huddled up with the rats and ants watching Kepler hit bombs!