Jham

So yeah, assuming no injury or pass through waivers, he's likely a super 2 with arbitration eligibility in 2018. I would guess he's substantially better than Wimmers now, but will he be better than Shaggy, Reed, and Burdi such that we would rather have him than a player with the flexibility of 3 option years? A lot of times you want that last reliever to be able to go up and down. I don't know if Pressley's got options, but I think Tonkin will have to demonstrate that he's an actual asset to the pen and not just a guy out there.

I didn't realize I could only keep one... I mentioned that if I was another team, I'd consider taking a flyer on Wimmers. I leaned against it for the Twins. Tonkin has had a rocky beginning to his MLB career. I do not care to look when he'd be arb eligible, but it seems like he's had some significant service time. Others have questioned the leverage of Tonkin's appearances this year. If he keeps performing like this, he's a lock for the 25 man, let alone the 40 man. If he Casey Fien's his way down the stretch, I'm not sure the Twins have much more patience.

Wimmers wasn't protected last year, and he's a former number 1 who appears to be near MLB ready in the pen, and would be an easy addition for a team. I'm not sure if his upside has dropped to low-leverage reliever, but I would think he'd be adequate in that role making a waiver claim more palatable for a team that still harbors hope for his former upside. I don't think the Twins protect him, I'm not even saying I'd protect him, but he'd interest me if I'm another team. Yorman Landa, Tonkin, DSan, and Pat Dean are all on the 40 man and also on my watch list. I'd consider exposing any or all of these players come the end of the year.

Echo the need for a rule change for international fa. Or at least make the claiming team reimburse the signing bonus to protect the team. Harrison passed through last year. Thorpe is likely to be returned or bring back a trade offer. With starting depth at his level being an organizational strength, he, like hu last year become slightly expendable. That can change quickly, but it's not like I'm willing to bet on Thorpes elbow and shoulder either.

The first few pages of this thread were Santana bashers. I saw the highlight of his triple, it went oppo off the top of the score board in right. That's serious pop. I know a lot of posters blame the babip for his drop off. I think the precipitous drop in power, especially from the right side, had more to do with his decline than luck. Something in his approach changed. But he's trying to drive the ball again. He was a once well thought of prospect. He played a good short today and hit a ball where very few utility players can. The kid has more tools than Arcia. I hope he reemerges. He takes a lot of abuse but has worked hard to stay with the organization. It's not too late for him.

Wait, is your idea to trade Nolasco for almost nothing, eat a bunch of contract, then sign another Nolasco? Serviceable staying pitching doesn't sign 1 year deals. Pelfreys do. If we're not sure young arms are ready, Milone is about as good add you can hope for, and everyone wants to trade him too.

I guess my main concern is that if we see big jumps from Buxton and Sano and we've surrounded them with minor leaguers and stock piled even more prospects from outside the organization, and we've wasted several of their best years. Then things go really well, and those prospects start to pay dividends just in time for Sano and Buxton to both want their money. IF Sano and Buxton are as good as we hope, then we may not be able to afford one or both by the time we get the "rebuild" built, and we'll think, man if we just could have gotten those two kids some help... IF they're not good enough to build around now, then we're fools not to consider trading them in a full rebuild. Otherwise, we're banking on the guess/hope that they will slowly turn into MVP candidates 3 or 4 years from now which sounds a lot like the current system except we're replacing "veteran stopgaps" with "youthful stopgaps" which probably takes any hope of a "get lucky" contending year out of the picture for no apparent reason other than frustration and a borderline delusional belief that above average AAA talent years will somehow become MLB All-Star talent if allowed to take enough lumps. Summation: If Sano and Kep and Bux are franchise players, it won't take 3 years to build a winner. If they're not franchise players then we are very unlikely to compete before they become expensive and less tradeable, and they should not be untouchable now. I don't see how surrounding the core with inexperience as they enter their primes does anything to move us forward. So I'm a big fan of Polanco, but I can't say that I expect he'll have a better career than Dozier, or that he'll be better than Dozier next year or the year after. I'd like to see him hit for a bit more power, which I think he can. I won't trade Dozier while Polanco has options and I won't trade Dozier simply because Polanco is almost out of options.

Then I'd argue it's not a total rebuild. If those 3 are untouchable, we should surround them with talent and try to win. If they're not good enough for that, then they shouldn't be untouchable. I was in the no one is untouchable with this mess group, but I'm now willing to bank on this core and give them a shot. Although I'm very concerned that the core isn't good enough.

A true rebuild would probably mean trading Sano, our biggest chip, buxton, who still has value, and Gibson. I'm not ready to blow things up that badly. It seems super obvious that the plan was to sign some big free agents to the pitching staff to stabalize things until may, meyer, duffey and Berrios arrived. The failure want relying on Hughes, or Nolasco, it was relying on unproven arms to take their place. Of course, that makes the vet signings look even worse. I don't think it was a bad plan. Bad result for sure. I'm willing to see if this young core can developed into a winner before blowing things up. Ryan is taking steps. Why blow anything up now that we are just seeing kep, bux, sano, and soon berrios? Can we at least see if they can put a season together next year with more team than individual goals?

I remember that. O'Day hadn't given up multiple runs in an inning all season, and we put up 3 unlikely ones. May came in and got a big K, and Jepsen lit em up in the 9th. May to Jepsen looked like it could be something special, for a moment in time...

Regardless of the ultimate result, restructuring 1/4th of the roster to accommodate a somewhat pedestrian veteran shortstop on half-a-year turnaround, seems pretty shortsighted. I'm on board with the no-such-thing as a bad 1 year deal though. And I'm not sure Park won't eventually be an asset. I'm guessing we could trade him to Anaheim or Seattle today.

One thought, if our extended future isn't much brighter than our current state, doesn't that say just as much about our next wave of talent as it does about our current roster? Personally, I don't blame Hughes, or Plouffe, or Mauer, or Jepsen. We're stinking awful because we were built on Kepler, and Sano, and Buxton, Rosario, and Burdi, and Reed, and Berrios, and Meyer, and May, and Gibson, and to a lesser extent Arcia, Hicks, JR Murphy, D San, Polanco, and Josmil Pinto being serviceable to all star. Gibson, May, and Sano have been serviceable to good, but most of the others are borderline unplayable. That's a huge list of talent that's failed, failing, flailing, or otherwise not met expectations. And unlike a lot of other posters, I do not think that playing them all at once will make them a playoff team in 3 years. I think we're seeing a perfect storm of prospects who will struggle to ever live up to the hype. Many should have been traded before bombing in the MLB. I hope our plan isn't to just assume these prospects are our future, trade off or release everyone else and hope for the best. We've ruined a lot of trade stock by holding (hoarding) prospects too long. We have to look to get better through trades of veterans if possible, trades of prospects where we have an advantage, and smart signings of free agents. If things are really that bad, we need to trade Sano and Gibson who both figure to be too expensive to keep by the time we get good, and may be at peak value now, with little service to 90 loss clubs. They're the only guys I see bringing much return unless Berrios can come tear it up for a month. Personally, I think we can be competitive as early as next season, but maybe I'm still buying into the prospect hype... Dozier and Sano would have to be All Stars, we have an opportunity to jump up big time at catcher, our outfield might not hit, but may not let a ball drop, and Berrios, Gibson, May, Duffey and Santana could still be a decent rotation. Bull pen is relatively easy to upgrade through trades, promotion, or free agency. Two prospects jump up and say Gibson and May have career years, and who knows. Unlikely, but who knows.

Solidly entertaining post.

Last year first half: 1.92 BB/9 (primarily as starter). Last year 2nd half: 2.37 BB/9. This year 3.38 BB/9. Maybe he just found more command as a starter, but I don't think he'd ever been under 3.9 BB/9 as a minor league starter. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6398&position=P That's why I feel confident betting the over on 2.02 which led to average starter production, and why I'm concerned that his success, if you can call it that, as a starter was a mere flash in the pan. I'd put him back in the rotation to see if he has made some adjustment that has harnessed more control, but again, I'm not willing to bet on it, and in fact, I'm willing to bet heavily against it.

Put May in the rotation and we can put a $1000 wager on whether his BB/9ip will be O/U 2.02 the rest of the season or 2017 too. You have to cover the over bets. His walks were way down at the beginning of last year. He either found control or he had a spectacular run of feel and rhythm that wasn't likely to last (and didn't). Aside from a ridiculous year in avoiding walks, his production as a starter was only so so. He improved greatly out of the pen. What would his production as a starter have looked like when his walks went up to the 3.38 it's at this year? Probably a lot like his production this year. Pretty poor.

Interesting concept. My thought is that there would be a positive correlation toward the latter scenario, but I don't think the results would tell you much. Getting 1 hit in 4 at bats for .250 average (last year's league average was .254) is likely to be almost neutral for wins and losses based on being so close to the league average without looking at average wins per team. Going 0-4 in any particular game probably correlates slightly with a loss, certainly more so than a 1-4 day. Going 0-4 might mean you met Chris Sale, but even Sale gives up hits. If you went 3-4, you probably did not face Sale, you probably faced Nolasco. You're more likely to beat Nolasco than Sale. You might go 0-4 against someone in the middle, you might go 3-4 against someone in the middle. But 1-4 doesn't tell me much. Thus my hypothesis is slight correlation toward multi-hit games, but only because your probably not the only one hitting well when you go 3-4. (correlation vs. causation).

My sneaking suspicion is that May is an average to above average bull pen guy. A good 7th - 8th inning type, but not a lights out closer. I have real doubts about his ability to be a serviceable starter. He's like a more wild version of Scott Baker. Walks aren't the only issue, hittability is a big problem when he misses his spots. That said, I would like to give May one more chance at starting. I'm not committed to that position for all of 2016 and 17 like many posters seem to be. For instance, I wouldn't feel comfortable trading Santana or not picking up Millone's option in order to bank on May's health and success. And Santana and Millone aren't great. I have never heard of anyone blaming going to the bullpen for an injury. If May is blaming the short turn arounds, he either lacks durability, is lacking in preparation and recovery work, or has poor trainers. Perk's labrum aside, there doesn't seem to be an issue with training. I think it's pretty universally accepted that starting is more strenuous on the body and arm than pitching out of the pen, so I don't buy that excuse for poor performance.

I would guess you're probably right. I'm not sure what more TR could really have done without making it look like we were punting after putting together a decent season. I'm willing to see if he makes any changes in scouting, player development, and rebuilding now that he has an excuse to do so without public backlash. Time to bring back the Get to Know Em t-shirts maybe...

That's the ugly truth about this season: there aren't a lot of "right moves" to be made. Most of the moves designated as priorities are "cross our fingers and hope for the best" moves. Hopefully Rosario will prove he can work an at bat. Hopefully May can be a healthy and effective starter. Hopefully Buxton will improve with preparation at AAA. Hopefully Sano can play 3rd... Maybe I'm gun shy because of all the losing and letdowns, but I'm not sure many of these moves matter. I'm not one who is a strong believer in needing tons of MLB experience in order to be successful. I think there are different ways to bring a prospect along. No one way will work for each player. If the solution to Buxton not being ready is more AAA time, then the solution to X player, Shaggy for instance, not being ready may or may not be MLB pressure. I think the latter scenario works better on teams with more veteran talent. I think our #1 and only real priority should be not panicking because of this year's results and continue to be patient and focus on 2017. Consider that TR may have thought this team wasn't going anywhere and that they over-achieved last year. He would have been highly unlikely to go after a big name FA reliever or veteran outfielder, exactly what happened. He also could not embrace a total rebuild (nor would that have been wise before seeing how quickly our young talent can develop). As such, TR may have viewed this season as a season of patience. If so, we need to continue to be patient. If not, TR probably should go and that should be priority 1.

I think you just made my point. Dozier's a lot closer to a "dollar" than Polanco. You propose trading Dozier's $1 for more .$25s AND hope that Polanco turns into a $1? Polanco better be a $1 with $2 upside if you're going to go and make a decision to move away from one of your only decent players. My assumption is flawed? Dozier is under contract for another couple years, and another extension isn't that out of the question. You might say that seems like an expensive waste if you have a younger Polanco waiting in the wings, but if he's not better than Dozier, the team would still be worse and you've saved what? The Pohlads a few bucks? If you think Polanco can outperform Dozier or come close to his level over the next few years, fine. But that seems unlikely to me. And I really like Polanco, like more than Kepler even. If he really is better than Dozier, he'll force his way in, and we can trade Dozier later this season, next season, or whenever. I'm not sure the Twins aren't penciling him in at 3rd for when the Sano at 3rd experiment ends up like the Sano in right experience.

Ok, use which ever qualifier you want. I just picked All-Star because it's one word and most people have a decent concept of what that might entail. Will he be a top 5 corner outfielder? Will he be a top 10 finisher in MVP voter? Top 10 in OPS or WAR or something else difficult to replace.

Yeah, I mean if Buxton hits the end of his options and hasn't improved... It has nothing to do with sample size, more to do with roster construction. I don't think you can really compare Buxton to Arcia on a number of levels, upside, defense, speed, etc that would make a player valuable even if he hit like Arcia. I just don't get your comparison at all I guess. I never compared their sample size did I? fMaybe we should have signed Arcia to an extension just to make sure we didn't miss out? If Buxton and Kepler aren't significantly better than Arcia, then I'll be very disappointed. Perhaps he should have played more the last few years, and even this year, but he did nothing to earn it, and I still think that you get better efforts from everyone when the best player plays (ie no scholarships based on contract, youth, or options).

Sort of assuming the posters know who will be the better player, when the team will be relevant again, and that the young players will actually be good players or better than the guys in front of them. I'm actually advocating for making tough decisions based on some projection. But it has to be smart and not just based on age. Polanco is unlikely to be as good as Dozier over a career. Odds that Kep ever makes an all star team? I just don't want a youth movement that ends up in 3 years being set up for another youth movement with our currently young players "blossoming" into flawed arb eligibles with little trade value. I'm willing to part with players who have value on the market and risk getting burned if it means we're at least trying to accumulate more rostered talent or better prospects.

See, I view this as a necessary part of the rebuild. We have been beyond terrible at cutting losses and moving on from failed prospects. If it means we're making a hard decision to go with kep ros bux and gross, then this is a positive step. Good luck to ozzie, one of my favorites despite his recent struggles. Hopefully there is more decisive trimming to come.

This thread is pretty interesting to see the similar debates around the league as to the move without all the Danny Santana grandstanding clouding the decision. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/06/twins-designate-oswaldo-arcia.html 7 or 8 days into the DFA, and no claims or trades? Could Arcia go unclaimed? Would that be good or bad? I sort of think Ryan was exposing Millone and now Arcia to waivers because he thought teams might try to move up the waiver order and trade for them. If no one claims them, great, we hold on to Arcia with no 40 man issues... of course that means that players who aren't even the worst players on our team aren't even worth rostering on any other team. No wonder Grossman looks good in comparison...