Major League Ready

No. I measured payroll against total revenue to show what percentage of revenue they spent. The ratio speaks for itself and the increase in payroll speaks for itself. Payroll did not go up by the entirety of the BAM money. We don't know what other expenses BAM may have been used to fund. What we do know is that you are ignoring the fact that it existed when you insist there is no reason to reduce payroll from the 2023. Level. Obviously, between BAM and TV revenue it makes perfect sense. The $267 in revenue came from Statistica. Is this hard fact no. Is it a reasonable source? Yes. There are also other sources reporting very similar numbers. I then added $13M suggesting this seemed like a reasonable assumption for them to increase expected revenue. They mighty have forecasted no increase. I was just trying to make a reasonable assumption.

The data I compiled only goes back to 2000 (see below0. I used 90 win seasons as a measure. The Royals won a WS but they have also been the worst team in the league in terms of win record and 90 win seasons so I would not use WS wins as the only measure of success. There is no question that spending is advantageous. However, you are focused on the wrong variable. Is it willingness to spend that prevents all of us from spending another $50K/year on a better house/automobiles/ vacations or is it income. The variable that dictates signing expensive players is not willingness to spends, it's revenue. The reality is that the likelihood of any team in the bottom half of revenue winning the WS is far lower than teams in the top 10. More importantly, savvy moves that produce more for less are the only way teams with less revenue can possibly be successful. Yet, a whole lot of people are focusing 90% of their attention on acquisition sources that have produced 20% of the WAR generated by 90 win teams outside the top 10 in revenue. Win % 90 Win 1 Yankees 0.579 13 2 Dodgers 0.563 13 3 Cardinals 0.554 13 4 Braves 0.545 12 5 Red Sox 0.545 13 6 Giants 0.521 8 7 Angels 0.521 7 8 Oakland 0.518 10 9 Cleveland 0.516 10 10 Astros 0.513 8 11 Phillies 0.508 5 12 Blue Jays 0.503 3 13 TWINS 0.502 6 14 Mariners 0.499 7 15 Mets 0.499 4 16 Cubs 0.498 5 17 Tampa 0.497 9 18 White Sox 0.494 4 19 Brewers 0.493 5 20 Rangers 0.491 6 21 Nationals 0.486 5 22 Dbacks 0.484 5 23 Padres 0.474 1 24 Reds 0.471 3 25 Marlins 0.468 1 26 Tigers 0.464 4 27 Rockies 0.462 3 28 Orioles 0.453 3 29 Pirates 0.447 2 30 Royals 0.436 1

You know I have been saying the same thing about Farmer. I just can't see them moving him because of his flexibility and his career OPS of .825 against LHP. Then, I looked up Goodrum just for kicks. His lifetime OPS against LHP is .816. They are almost the same against RHP as well. The two are very similar players so I could see it happening if there was a good place to put the dollars. What if this made Soler possible? Of course, we could make a case that their career stats don't necessarily reflect what we should expect in 2024. I think Farmer is definitely the better bet but it's an interesting twist.

Yes also covers the Nets and Liberty. Therefore, operating costs are spread across three teams. I assume the Timberwolves and Links have contracts that can't be broken.

You are among a very tiny minority that recognized the BAM money. I forgot about it in my first cut. Then, it was brought up on one of the MLB radio shows long before we heard payroll would be cut.

Boy, does this hit the bullseye. If we understand that the Twins have to produce 2 WAR per dollar spent for every 1 WAR produced by the top market teams, the prerequisites to success are very apparent.

The estimate below for 2025 includes arbitration increases. The total is $120M. With 11 arbitration eligible players, that number is going to jump substantially in 2026 if some of those arbitration players perform. It could be another $15-20M. You are also making an assumption that revenue grows. It has not been growing and it's very possible TV revenue will actually be less going forward. The variable that nobody is acknowledging is that they had $30M in BAM money last year. We can't just pretend that the record spending in 2023 was not a product of that $30M windfall. They had $267M in revenue for 2022. If they forecasted a $13M increase od 2023 plus the BAM money, their forecasted revenue would have been around $310M so their $156M payroll makes sense. The BAM money is gone and TV revenue might be a touch less going forward. At 50% of revenue the budget is more likely around $140M unless attendance goes way up. Another $20M on free agents would project 2 additional wins. I doubt that boosts attendance. 1 Pablo Lopez 21,750,000 2 Joe Ryan 1,500,000 Arb-1 3 Bailey Ober 1,500,000 Arb-1 4 Chris Paddack 7,500,000 5 Matt Canterino 770,000 Relief Pitchers 6 Jhoan Duran 1,600,000 Arb-1 7 Griffin Jax 1,500,000 Arb-1 8 Brock Stewart 1,500,000 Arb-1 9 Cody Funderburk 770,000 10 Jorge Alcala 1,500,000 Arb-3 11 Matt Canterino 770,000 12 Josh Staumont 1,500,000 Arb-3 13 Justin Topa 1,700,000 Arb-2 Catchers 14 Ryan Jeffers 4,000,000 Arb-2 15 C. Vazquez 10,000,000 Infielders 16 Alex Kirilloff 2,500,000 Arb-2 17 Edouard Julien 770,000 18 Brooks Lee 770,000 19 Carlos Correa 33,333,000 Utility Players 20 Willi Castro 5,000,000 Arb-3 21 Royce Lewis 770,000 22 Luis Severino 770,000 23 Austin Martin 770,000 Outfielders 24 Trevor Larnach 770,000 25 Byron Buxton 15,142,857 26 Matt Wallner 770,000 TOTAL PAYROLL 119,225,857

What is the source of the $138M figure. Spotrac estimates $108M with $10M in dead money to Dozier. Fangraphs (last segment that gives totals below) estimates $114.8M. They have a total of $100M which includes the dead money to Dozier plus prearb salaries so can someone explain where is this $138M coming from? Description 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 $ due for potential buyout of Adam Frazier $2,500,000 $ due for buyout of Hunter Dozier $1,000,000 $ due for potential buyout of Chris Stratton $500,000 $ due for potential buyout of Salvador Perez $2,000,000 Estimated Payroll $114,784,571 $48,707,071 $15,707,071 $19,707,071 $30,707,071 $35,707,071 $35,707,071

They had 1 1/2 good seasons. in the past two decades. The rest of the time, they have been among the very worst team in the league. I actually have the records for every team form 2000-2022 in a spreadsheet. I have not entered last year's data. The Royals literally have the worst record (.440) in the entire league over that period and exactly one 90 win season. The Twins have the 11th best record and six 90 win seasons.

IDK if Texas was banking on it but the biggest improvement in their team was the addition or improvement of 5 prearb position players.

I knew I was missing someone.

Castro can hit RH but that does not make him a suitable to go against LHP. His career wRC+ is 91 vs LHP. Last year it was only 82. He was far better (121) from the left side. A RH outfielder would take ABs from Wallner or Kirilloff who has a career 77 wRC+ and Wallner has been far worse. Somone like Jorge would be a huge improvement to the lineup when replacing Kirilloff or Wallner.

I said the exact same thing last year. Maybe it was 72-92 if I recall. This year I think the floor is higher. I think the range is 80-90.

I am a little fuzzy on where you are coming up with these numbers. According to Spotcast, Kansas City's projected Total Payroll is $108,167,477 not $138M. Why are you comparing the Luxury Tax Payroll instead of using the projected payroll total. I guess I am asking why the Luxury tax number is a better representation than their actual payroll. Royals Payroll

This is a huge year for our pitching pipeline. Maybe that's true every year but it seems like we have nobody we can be real confident in but several guys with enough talent to be impactful. Canterino and Prielipp have top of the rotation stuff but can't stay healthy. Could they finally get over the injury bug. Festa / Raya / SWR / Lewis / Culpepper and Ohl have shown well in the lower levels but need to show at the higher levels before we can get too excited about them contributing. Hopefully Bowen earns his place among these promising prospects. BTW ... I think Ohl might surprise some people.

My money is on Alcala and Staumont being in the BP with Varland in what Ober's role was last year.

The Duran to SP angle is really interesting. The additions of Topa and Jackson open that avenue but I think it's a bit of a longshot. Bullpens play a bigger role in the playoffs than they do in the regular season. That said, I would welcome it because it would be a lot of fun to watch and they can always put him back in the BP if it fails. The 40 man management and the potential for other trades very soon is also has my attention. I will be checking MLB trade rumors often this week. I think a trade for a RH outfielder is as likely as a trade for starting pitching.

I totally understand where you are coming from and I was one of the minority that did not want to trade him in June last year. However, we just can't make any mistakes with muti year deals. Correa, Buxton, and Lopez represent $70M/year for the next several years. Plus we have a bunch of guys hitting arbitration next year. There is also a decent chance E-rod is ready by the 1st half of next year. Now, if he ends up playing like he did the last half of 2023 for the next 4 years, I will regret not signing him. I just don't have much confidence that happens.

Over their careers, Ryan has average 1/4 if an inning more per start than DeSlafani. Ober has averaged .11 inning less per start..

Door number 3 (not signing him now) has some reasonably good outcomes as well. One, he has a good year and they give him a qualifying offer. They either get him on a one-year deal or get a comp round pick. Two, he is Max Kepler of 2021-22 and we would rather not have a long-term contract. Three, he has a good year and they pay him a little more than they would now. The dark horse, Larnach takes off, Wallner goes to right, Larnach to left.

There is a giant hole in your strategy. You don't have to count on them but how do you get to year 4 if you never give young guys an opportunity and you are never for giving them an opportunity. You are also completely ignoring what’s going on around the league. Most teams disagree with you and are not only giving more young players an opportunity, but they are also pushing them to the big leagues faster than ever before. Texas won the WS with a couple rookies and 3 prearb players playing important roles. Evan Carter came up for the last 23 games in a neck and neck playoff race. He had the highest wRC+ on the team during that time and was huge in the playoffs. Another rookie (Josh Jung) produced 2.5 WAR in 122 games. Jonah Heim had played in 222 games prior to the 2023 season. He produced 4.1 WAR. Leody Taveras had played in 182 games prior to 2023. Ezequiel Duran had only played in 58 games prior to the 2023 season. It’s a fairly reasonable assumption the Rangers don’t win the WS without these young players. That’s 5 position players in case you were not counting. Baltimore won 101 games. Their 40 man roster had 14 prearb players. Not only were they very good. They are now positioned to be an elite team for several years. Perhaps most important, and I know I am repeating myself but the only absolute prerequisite for the Minnesota Twins to build a contender is to produce major league talent. It is a mathematical certainty that they have to produce 2X the WAR per dollar spent to compete with the top revenue teams. Producing excess talent also allows for key trades like Pablo Lopez. Not only does it provide the trade capital but producing young talent also allows them to sign the extension that resulted. I just don’t think you are paying much attention to the rest of the league or some basic realities of the revenue disparity in the league.

Are you suggesting the best way to build a roster is to acquire players after they have 3 years experience?

The odds of a 38 year old declining are also significant, especially after coming off an up year when he was not good the previous 3 years. This is not like investing in a 30 year old veteran with a great track record. Your stance on young players is well-established here. The problem with your strategy is that all teams but especially teams outside the top 10 in revenue have absolutely no chance of building a contending roster without the majority of the team being in their first 6 years of service. The next most impactful strategy is extending key players. A failure to develop young players for teams anywhere near the Twins in terms of revenue all but guarantees failure or mediocrity at best.

Santana's contribution could be greater than Gallo if he is used primarily against LHP. Gallo was forced into service because of injuries. Santana might be too. I think the biggest risk is that he performs more like 2020-2022 than 2023. I am really indifferent on this move. I see the logic but tend to agree with Nick and others who suggest we would be better off not clogging up the 26-man and giving the ABs to young guys that could provide long-term benefit.

He talked about working on a couple of other pitches in his interview with Seth.