Major League Ready
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Everything posted by Major League Ready
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It very difficult to create excess value paying free agent prices. Milwaukee understands that a team with 1/2 the revenue of other teams needs to create twice as much production per dollar spent. Berrios has produced 1 WAR per 13.7M so far. His salary goes up substantially the next two years so it probably gets worse. How much additional value would they have created had the traded for Tolle?
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Joe Ryan has already gone through the Jose Berrios crossroad. Berrios was traded when his value was high. Joe Ryan is already a long way down the road of less value. The similarity between the two is that the Twins did not get the value they should have for Berrios and almost certainly will not get the value they should have out of Ryan.
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The NBA has restrictions. The NFL does not. perhaps MLB should take note and follow the NFL example so that they don't create the issues to raise. Maybe it makes sense to have different rules for the floor than the ceiling.
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You are making the assumption that the new system is not transitioned. That makes no sense because it would potentially lead to the problem you mention and many more. The big budget teams would have to discard several players. It would be chaos. I hope the league and the MLBPA are not that inept, Even if they were that inept, it would not be hard to work around. For example, the Twins could give Jeffers 4/75 paid 35/35/5/5. They could extend Pablo for 3 years with 80% paid the first they year. They could make a similar offer to a 1B. What would be the penalty if a team was under the floor? What if there is a provision that money is paid to the players retirement fund or split among all of the players within $250K of league minimum? Teams would not be forced to enter terrible contracts.
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This would be absolutely fantastic. What a total game changer this would be.
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- carlos correa
- sonny gray
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Riverbrian’s 2027 Payroll Blueprint:
Major League Ready replied to Riverbrian's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
No. I am pretty disenchanted and therefore just not giving it as much thought. I am just disgusted because I think the organization absolutely could not have done a worse job of managing assets over the past couple of years. They could have been really well-positioned had they managed in the model of Milwaukee or Tampa. I also think Tom Pohlad's no half measures and we are dedicated to putting a winner on the field is just a bunch of BS. How can you make that claim and continue to slash payroll. The models for success were on display this fall. He not only proved he does not understand those models but he also did a 180 in the midst of a rebuild which is the definition of incompetence. I never thought ownership was a big problem but I certainly do now. Having said all this ... I think my roster would conceptually be very similar to Riverbrian. -
Riverbrian’s 2027 Payroll Blueprint:
Major League Ready replied to Riverbrian's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I like it. I hope Tom Pohlad will back up his statements in a meaningful way. I will have to see it to believe it. I don't believe they will spend unless the CBA requires it. -
I just hope it's over $50M.
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Because it burned Falvey once? No!!! I don't know that I would go so far as to "bail on the concept entirely". However, high dollar RPs has been the worst free agent investment in baseball. If they had everything else they needed to be a true contender, it might still make sense but that's not the case.
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There is a famous saying... Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it It's one thing to say we should not avoid trades or free agents because some don't work out. It's quite another to avoid the type of acquisition that fails at a far greater rate. Choosing the strategy that has the greatest rate of failure does not make much sense. We also have shing examples of successful strategies for low revenue teams. We can't say we support the theory of following their practices and then completely ignore how these teams built rosters. Sometimes we have to recognize it may take more than one year to be a true contender. When they demolished our BP, they set course on a path that was going to take a couple years to rebuild.
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I agree there are always opportunities to trade someone like Larnach or Ober / Kremer. Those players are not bringing back a player likely to be an impact player. However, the teams we keep talking about manage to find value. We thought Megill had no value and the Brewers found a closer on a WS teams. Their best opportunities to trade for really good prospects were Ryan, Lopez, and Jeffers. They managed that as poorly as possible. Who do you think remains on the 40 man that has significant value that would not be trading a year or two now for the chance to build a sustainable team?
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Very little about baseball or roster management has certainty. It's quite possible to have a substantive conversation without certainty as long as we acknowledge the uncertainty. We don't need certainty to understand the Twins had assets with value to trade and they managed to squander that value about as badly as possible. We don't need certainty to compare the way the Twins manage assets to the Brewers / Rays, and Guardians. We don't need certainty to understand the Twins have failed to put a contender on the field and that is in part due to their inability to create value as Riverbrian has pointed out.
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- ty france
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Completely agree. The team was in a very different place last year. I wrote a number of times that they were very well positioned to shake up the roster and build a contender in much less time than it normally takes. What could have been had they stayed on a rebuild path and made some wise decisions. They are part way down that path today. Keaschall looks like a building block and a few rookies gave us some hope they are part of the next core. The difference for me is that they have this cluster of starters that will be free agents next year. I have been saying for a couple years that they needed to address that situation because losing 3 SPs to free agency in one year is bad asset management. Now it's even worse with Kremer. They needed to trade either Pablo or Ryan for a SP that could replace them.
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I did not see a team ready to "make a serious run at this thing". Not unless they are willing to add $75m to the payroll and I don't see that happening. I am hoping they quit playing for this year and start managing their assets with building a contender in mind. Had they done this in the past, we would have Tolle and others for the next several years. That would be better today and have stability in their rotation for the next several years.
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How many players from the Brewers / Rays were acquired by trading meaningful prospects? These teams rarely trade meaningful prospects. Their success has come from doing exactly the opposite. It does happen, they traded 4 guys who have done nothing at the ML level for Yehlich but that was a long time ago. He is there now by virtue of an extension and he was replacement level this year.
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This MIGHT make sense if they were trying to tweak a contending roster. That's not where they are presently. They need to build a sustainable roster and Goldsmidt is not part of that solution.
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What really jumps out to me is that 30 of the 52 players from their rosters were acquired via trade. It's not like these teams are drafting that much better than the Twins although they are drafting better athletes that can play defense and run the bases. Your point about the "ruthless renewal" is where Milwaukee, Tampa, and Cleveland have gained a big advantage over the Twins. These team occasionally will trade for an established player but the vast majority of the trades are for unestablished players. Tampa does not have players that were productive this year that were acquired as establish players. Milwaukee has Contreras although he was not all that established having had one 2 war season before being acquired. Yehlich is replacement level player at this point so it's not as if that trade was impactful in building this WS team. He has averaged 2 WAR over the last 7 years. These team's were built by trading for prospects and many of these trades are exactly what fans rail against. If we had acquired Trevor Megill instead of having traded him away, many would have called it dumpster diving. They traded away a Cy young pitcher and had the best record in the league the next year. We kept Ryan and Jeffers when we were a below 500 team.
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Thanks for taking the time to make that post. I was thinking the same thing but thought to myself that it would take a lot of explanation so I just let it go. Let me add that we often scoff at some of the practices of the Brewers / Rays / Guardians. We might say that Megill was dumpster diving. Martinez was a 1 year $9M deal. The Rays traded Adames to get Rasmussen when he was just getting started was not yet established. These teams don't really draft any better than the Twins. However, they do a lot better job of acquiring young / unestablished talent. Money definitely matters but the point to be taken from you here IMO is why are we obsessed with spending when it's simply not feasible for the Twins to spend like teams in the top 10 in revenue. Many of us have been saying for a few years now that the Rays / Brewers & Guardians have shown us quite clearly what needs to be done. The Twins have chosen to ignore their example. That has never been clearer than this last year when the Twins managed to minimize the value of their tradeable assets.
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Brewers Payroll From Spotrac. More than 1/3 of their payroll went to the injured list or dead money. Our problems were deeper than Lopez going down and paying $10M of Correa's salary for Houston.
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Falvey had a different idea and apparently stood his ground. Zoll could have done the same and then we would be talking about the next guy willing to take that job. This owner, despite knowing jack s#i! about building a baseball team, demanded a direction be taken. Had he backed that up with spending, perhaps there would have been somewhat of a case. There only other option would have been to empty the farm system to bolster a bad team which would have been even dumber than reversing course in the middle of a rebuild. If your boss insists on an incompetent plan, the person executing it may or may not be incompetent, but the root of the problem is the owner insisting on a really bad plan.
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I think the biggest question they need to answer is are they going to manage their assets in a manner that promotes building a contender or are they going to place the emphasis on the immediate term. They could do a little of both. For example, if they invested in the BP, those assets are very tradeable at the deadline. That position is also the least predictable.
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Those 3 teams had a total of 41 players that produced 1.5 WAR or more (1.2 for RPs). Of those 41 players, there was one free agent and one player that was acquired as a somewhat established player. They did not spend wisely. They drafted and acquired prospects and developed them and there were a couple well executed extensions of young players (Rameriz / Chourio) very early in their careers.
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I want to see them sold at this point as much as anyone. However, I don't think the Pohlad's are going to be convinced to sell in a hurry so that a "saavy buyer" can cash in on a valuation that is on the verge of a very substantial increase. I would be more inclined to believe their desire to sell diminished when they figured out the league was headed for more revenue sharing. I think they are bad owners but I don't think they are stupid.
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I don't see it happening until the CBA is completed. There looks to be a real push for significantly more revenue sharing. Of course, this would significantly increase the value of the teams that are on the receiving end of that sharing. If you are a seller, waiting it out could mean a much bigger payday.
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My first post had a typo. If you look back, the premise of that post was if they "invest in a 1B". I meant to say Culpepper goes to 2B.
