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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    You can stop ranting now because removing Berrios had nothing to do with Analytics, at least not in the same sense as Snell being removed. The science which prompted this move is medical science. In other words, he was removed because of risk of injury. It would have been a different story had they been even a month into the season and he had a handful of 100 pitch starts.
  2. Major League Ready
    You have a habit of implying management is stupid based on an assumption for which you offer no validated as in this case. I can think of two very specific instances. Your constant harping on the subject made wonder if your position had any merit so I researched it myself. The first one was you insisted the team should sign a high-end FA starter even if it was rather clear the team was not ready to compete until at least the following year. Turns out that those starters have a horrible track record after the first year of the contract. The second one was basically that our organization was too cheap the sign the very top International Free Agents. As it turns out, the 3-4M at very best are no better than the $1M-1.5M draftees. The sample size is modest but the 1-1.5M draftees have actually turned out better in the years I researched. Therefore, the most productive strategy is probably to spread out the international allowance instead of blowing it all on one 16 year old kid. You have a tendency to derive conclusions based on assumption. Then, assume the people (front office) who have far more and far better information than you don’t know what they are doing. If you are going to critique the front office based on poorly formulated assumptions, don’t be offended when called on it.
  3. Major League Ready
    The only other weak link is Sano. 7 of 9 is pretty darn good. Ignoring Arraez will play there part-time while also ignoring they brought in Donaldson last year and Simmons this year might be a little pessimistic, especially given they already have great defense in CF and RF.
  4. Major League Ready
    Most incisive post ever made on TD!
  5. Major League Ready
    Don’t you think we should let them play the first game before determining it's a disaster? Might want to wait a month or two. You might even want to wait until the end of the year and see if they were able to successfully transition Rooker / Kirilloff or Larnach into LF while bridging the gap between Rosario and his successor. Production anywhere near Rosario will be a net positive considering the savings allowed us to sign Simmons. Might also want to consider that MLB is littered with less than celebrated players that were traded with less than 1,000 ABs and then became league average or above. I would bet some Dodgers fans cursed Turner and Muncy getting playing time when they first came along. The Ray’s and A’s have managed to compete despite very limited financial resources by spotting and acquiring this type of player. I will consider it a big win if we get a combined wRC+ of 100 from a LF platoon. Rosario’s wRC+ is 98 in his last 1,000 ABs. Cave’s is 103. Garlick really struggled like many others last year but his wRC+ was 114 with the Dodgers in 2019. So, 100 seems very reasonable. Anything above that is probably better than what we would have got out of Rosario. To do this while transitioning to Kirilloff / Larnach / Rooker would be great execution.
  6. Major League Ready
    I could see Rooker / Kirilloff / Larnach co-existing quite easily at some point. I likely won't be until next year but the three of them splitting duties between LF / RF / 1B & DH could work nicely. Maybe the FO is attempting to manage the current roster while setting the stage for the future.
  7. Major League Ready
    The context in which I used “finite” is that there is a realistic limit. In this specific context, it means retaining Rosario meant foregoing one of the additions that cost approximately $10M. We don’t need to know the exact number to determine what is reasonable to expect. Would you expect spending to go up if revenue increased by $30M? Of course you would. Yet, you expect spending to remain the same when revenue is sure to go down. In other words, you refuse to acknowledge we have needed to forego signing a free agent or a combination of free agents that totaled roughly $10M. The problem is you concoct a financial justification by adding up the subtractions and don’t consider the reality that spending goes down when revenue decreases. You also never accounted for the increases which totaled roughly $12M.
  8. Major League Ready
    5 games according to Fangraphs
  9. Major League Ready
    I have no problem with your preference for making personnel decisions based on sentiment over substance. That’s your prerogative and I would have absolutely no issue if this was your message but that’s not been your message. Your message has been that the front office is filled with morons because you insist that the best result for the club consists of moves that no other front office would make or in Escobar’s case refuse to make.
  10. Major League Ready
    A platoon of two LH batters? You did not think that one through. Baddoo would probably not even been invited to spring training. Even if he had been invited and showed as well as he did, the team would not have jeopardized his development by throwing him in at the ML level when he has never played an inning at AA.. AT an absolute minimum they would have had him play at AA for a good portion of the season. Then, if Buxton was hurt he MIGHT be brought up but the list of guys that make it to the MLB level with less than a full season at AA is very small and those guys killed it every step of the way. Rosario made $8M as an ARB-2. You are assuming a cost at least a couple million less than projected. . There is no way they were getting him for $8M. So, who are you eliminating. Happ and Robles or Simmons. I guess passing on Cruz would have been an option as well. If you ignore the team has a finite amount of money which allows you to ignore the equation is Rosario / Cave vs Garlick / Cave and Simmons, it's plausible to argue they should have kept the Rosario / Cave combo.
  11. Major League Ready
    You put a lot of stock in spring training because absolutely nothing about Baddoo's history suggests he is remotely ready to play at the ML level. He has not played an inning above A+ where his numbers were mediocre. Garlick's OPS at AAA was over 300pts higher than Baddoo's A+ OPS not to mention Garlick proved quite competent with the Dodgers in 2019. Granted it was a small sample size but any FO of a team hoping to compete that would start Baddoo should be run out of town on a rail. The Twins gambled that no team would carry a player all year that has never player an inning above A+. Of course, it remains to be seen if they roster him all year or return him.
  12. Major League Ready
    The logic here could be as simple as they think MLB pitchers are going to abuse him with breaking stuff. Therefore, the team decided to implement a plan that will allow him the best opportunity to overcome this weakness. I would think he knows if he is prone to breaking balls. If properly presented, Rooker himself, while being disappointed, might just see such a plan as the best way for him to have a successful MLB career.
  13. Major League Ready
    I recall the same rhetoric with Berrios. Many here insisted he was ready or even that he would immediately be as good as anyone in the rotation. Of course, he struggled even after being held back longer than many here suggested was needed. We are 1700 miles away seeing a few Abs on TV. We have no knowledge of what is going on in workouts. The team is gathering information from the entire staff and spending hours contemplating their options. So, when you said early in this thread, "people tend to talk with way more certainty about these kinds of moves than is warranted", I thought to myself ... that's an understatement.
  14. Major League Ready
    Even the Dodgers with their enormous revenue look for these types of players. Max Muncy was released by the A’s and Justin Turner was released by the Mets. Muncy produced a OPS+ of 161 his 1st year with the Dodgers. Justin Turner’s low OPS+ was 121 over the next 7 years with 3 years above 150. Finding these diamonds in the ruff is an enormous boost to any team. That's why smart teams give these guys a shot.
  15. Major League Ready
    The Whitesox are going to be very good. I would be real happy with winning the central by a tie breaker.
  16. Major League Ready
    Over his last 1,000 ABs, Rosario had a wRC+ of 98. Jake Cave had a wRC+ of 103 during the same time period and 572 ABs. Cave’s defense is better and I would guess Garlick will be about the same, maybe even a little better given how often Rosario throws to the wrong base or airmails the cutoff man. I think a platoon of Cave / Garlick has a good chance of being an upgrade. The even better news is that Kirilloff and/or Larnach should being in those positions and producing well above average for the next 6+ years. I think there is a good chance Cave is traded sometime this year.
  17. Major League Ready
    This has been my take as well. They can take this approach and the worst case is they use Rooker to transition to KIrilloff/Larnach. Best case scenario is we come up with our own Justin Turner / Max Muncy. Garlick's history reminds me quite a bit of Turner. His breakout year was his age 29 season. He went from below average to posting a wRC+ of 123-158 over 7 seasons with 3 years in the 150s. You can't come up with these guys if you never give them a chance. BTW ... I was pulling for Rooker but I saw this one coming. I am guessing Rooker's homework assignment is going to be Taxi squad pitchers throwing him breaking balls.
  18. Major League Ready
    If you really believe you have a better idea on every deal there are only two possibilities. Either they don't have a clue or you don't have a clue.
  19. Major League Ready
    I follow now and agree! I am hoping we finally have pitching prospects that will allow us to get some post season production out of pitchers who are prospects at the moment like some other teams have done the last couple years. A great rental would be nice too.
  20. Major League Ready
    Can you name a team with the Twins revenue or less that has post season success as a result of signing an elite starting pitcher in free agency? Charlie Morton is the only guy I can think of and that was a very modest contract in comparison to a normal FA deal for an impact SP. Might even say it was a bargain. Of course, it helps that Morton had an significant preference to be in Florida. Perhaps more to the point, if we look back at post season success or even getting to the post season, developing pitching has been by far the most determinant factor for mid or small market teams or even for large market teams. The difference is the large market guys can sign 3 elite SPs and still have the Twins budget leftover. The most realistic strategy for teams outside the top dozen in revenue is a deadline trade for a rental.
  21. Major League Ready
    Clevinger, Bauer, and Carrasco were traded while they had enough control to get a return. The Twins have 3 option years after the 5 year guarantee. They could keep him for 5-6 years and still get a return so I really doubt they would trade him after only 2-3 years. If the new slider has the impact we hope, the only way he gets traded is if we have enough young talent that letting him go is not an issue. That would be great situation!
  22. Major League Ready
    I hope at the end of this deal he has collected the max. That would mean he performed well for the team for the next 8 years.
  23. Major League Ready
    When you have half the revenue of the very top teams and there are several teams with $100M+ revenue advantage .... Competing absolutely REQUIRES getting more productivity per dollar spent. It's an absolute mathematical certainty so it just astonishes me that people bitch about bargain shopping.
  24. Major League Ready
    This FACT should be the end of any debate. Anyone who would argue the decision to let Rosario go presumes to have a superior understanding of Rosarios value in comparison to every organization in the league. It's not a bad thing that fanaticism elicits some irrational moments but to harp on endlessly in the face of the highlighted reality is absurd.
  25. Major League Ready
    It's more scientific than just assuming to know the relationship between spring training stats and in-season effectiveness. I found it interesting. Thanks for going through the effort.
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