Major League Ready

I think there is a reasonable chance that happens because as you mentioned the WCS is he goes back to the BP. It's a lot easier to come up with a good BP arm than a top of the rotation starter. That said, I could see them not wanting to mess with success.

They could get better than a "decent reliever" with the salary saved but I am with you. How about a good RP and invest the $8.5M elsewhere? I would be OK with a good prospect of any kind (especially a catcher) and invest the $8.5M in pitching.

I am part way there with you. They had something like the 2nd most time lost to injury in the league. However, I still never believed this team was a serious contender. More pieces have emerged but I still think they are a fringe contender with Correa. So, It comes down to how the front office projects Lewis. He is not as valuable at any other position. Houston is a very well run organization. They were basically faced with the same scenario. They chose to go with Pena and invest the $35M elsewhere. Of course, Houston is a bigger market with more revenue. Even the Yankees, passed on the big SS class last year. I bet theyb do the same this year because they have a couple great SS prospects. It's simply more productive to invest elsewhere when a team has a young player ready to take over a position. I was so disappointed when he got hurt because we were perfectly set-up for him to transition this year knowing Correa would opt out. I see a Lewis / Lee left side of the infield in a couple years.

Since we "jettisoned" Rosario he has been below replacement level. Please enlighten us as to how it was a mistake to jettison a replacement level player. The premise we would have a shot at the post season had we kept a guy that performed worse than the players that replaced him is ridiculous.

I just prefer to be optimistic. Tatis Jr. was not highly thought of and was acquired for a veteran pitcher who performed horribly after the trade. I am far more interested in what Julien is doing today than when he was drafted. BTW ... I was listening to the MLB network and one of the big name prospect guys was being interview by Grant Paulson. I thought it was Calis but I don't remember. It could have been Mayo who did the article Jorgenswest linked above. Paulson asked who the guys he was going to be watching among those who were not already well because of their draft position. The first name out of his mouth was Eduardo Julien. Point being he is showing that he has a legit chance in the eyes of those who evaluate players for a living. So, I am going to enjoy his current success and be happy we got a guy that last that has a shot rather than presuming he will fail.

How many were drafted after 539 that went on the have good / productive careers? The fact that this specific draft pick has not done well is not relevant unless no players drafted that late went on the be productive players.

That's not how it works. They have X dollars to spend. In other words, they have a budget based on revenue like every other business or just as any responsible adult has a spending limit based on income. They will no doubt discuss Correa and any other player requiring a huge contract. Pohlad will certainly ask Falvey it is wise to spend 25% of their budget on one player (140/35). It's one thing to do it for a year. It's entirely different to commit that percentage to one player for 8-10 years. It's not a Twins thing and it's not a Pohlad thing. Teams are very reluctant to spend anywhere near 25% of their budget on one player.

Wouldn't that basically be the same team we have this year plus a RH outfielder? Would Mitch Hannigar makes this team anything close to a contender? I am hoping for a more significant change.

f course it all depends on the return but now is the time if we can get a decent return. I like the idea of signing Haniger to get a RH OFer. We have Larnach / Wallner, and Kirilloff from the left side. I like the odds of filling the role between the three of them. I am still ticked off they took Cavaco is team of Corbin Carroll who debuted this year and would be the perfect complement to this team given Buxton's injury history. He had a wRC+ of 133 in his 1st 32 games and he is a great defender. We would be in a great position to deal Kepler had they drafted Carroll.

The answer is not a SS that is so horrible at the plate that he is below replacement value when both offense and defense are combined. The answer is the best player in aggregate. Didn't you complain Larnach was going to be horrible too? He was just fine. Miranda had a small sample size at 3rd but I honestly don't recall him costing any runs at all in the time he played 3B. I do recall him driving in the most runs on the team. Iglesias would be a decent move to bridge the gap to Lewis. His net production would be better than Simmons and he could fill a utility role thereafter.

I can't tell if you are kidding. I was a big fan but his offense has become so bad I just don't want to watch that all year. His wRC+ was 27 and his WAR was negative. How would this be a good idea?

No, they don't have all those great players and retaining (not adding) Correa is not going to make them anywhere near as good as those other teams. Lewis or Brooks doing a good job replacing him and spending that $35M on players like Cruz that produce nearly as well for 40% of the money is how a mid market team can compete. You listed the most players for Houston the team that let him and George Springer go. It's all about producing the Correa / Springer / Valdez / Bregman / Alvarez, etc. Then, spending on free agents matter retaining Correa or signing big free agents means nothing if we don't build a great core from within.

My memory might be off but I recall quite a few people who insisted we got worse at 3B and Catcher. I think their hope (the FO) was basically to break even on the short-term production (talent) and get rid of Donaldson's contract. I think Mark G has the grade about right. B+/A- for 2022. However, 2022 is not likely the best part of this trade. They are now in a FAR better position for 23 than they would have been keeping Donaldson. In 2024 the benefit is likely an additional $8M they would have paid to cut him.

The Cardinals average about $75M more in revenue as compared to the twins. They have done a great job acquiring the right "big names" with the huge revenue of the biggest markets. So, give them credit but they can cover a couple big contracts with the incremental revenue they have beyond the twins revenue. In other words, if the Twins had another $75m in revenue I would be saying they should sign Correa.

I agree it was not the problem. However, that type of production is also not a solution. He produced 7 Fwar the last 5 years of his contract. This organization must invest much better than that if we are to be successful.

If you look back at my post, I specifically noted small and mid market teams. Pretty sure NY is not a mid market. The Braves are also a very large market and a team friendly deal to Acuna to a prearb player has no relevance in comparing the type of contract being sought by Correa.

The productivity per dollar spent on the Mauer contract does not promote success. It is very difficult for Mid market team to build a dominant team with that high a percentage of payroll invested in one player. They kind of had to do it with the hometown hero but the investment and subsequent production from Mauer is not an example of success which contradicts mid market GMs avoiding these contracts.

I like your plan better than my own. Polanco is not ideal at SS but it's a great way to bridge the gap until Lewis or Lee take while giving Arraez an every day spot in the lineup. Of course, a much better BP.

What the article does not cover is the examples of teams in similar markets that have been successful signing a mega contract with a similar player. The reality is that it never happens. In other words, none of the GMs of teams with similar revenue have believed signing such a player was in the best interest of the team. Are they all wrong? We would be a better team next year with him but we be a better team in 24 and for several years thereafter with Lewis or Lee at SS and $35M invested in pitching?

I gave absolutely no significance to Henriquez and Megill. Simply said they gave us reason to hope. You are not interested in an accurate account and you can't say all you care about is what transpires at the ML level and then refuse to give the organization credit for making something happen. You consistently frame everything in whatever way allows you to bitch about the front office and proclaim to have a better understand then they do as to what should be done. If that were true, you would we working in a front office somewhere instead of proclaiming your wisdom here.

I don't care how they acquire the talent. They gave up nothing and got something substantial. Duran graduated in a big way. Jax looked like nothing and became something. Ober displayed a higher ceiling. Varland and SWR demonstrated they are likely to be part of the future. Moran looks like something. Therefore, something of significance happened. You are only interested in finding a way to complain, not what actually happened.

IKF was not very good this year. I would rather take my chances with Martin at SS. At least that move has some upside potential and long-term benefit if it works out.

I originally had Rodon at $27.5M. Obviously, the number of years will play into the AAV but it would not be surprising if he ended up getting above the $25M I project. The $27.5M I had originally may have been a better estimate. I had the same general thought as Squirrel. However, for better or worse, they put some of their eggs in the Lopez basket. He did not perform but it's reasonable to expect better next year. Then, there is Winder. There won't be a spot for him in the rotation in this plan so he takes a BP spot. Plus, Alcala will be back. I was being optimistic he will be back and performing well. I was thinking there was still room in the budget if Alcala was not looking ready. Another consideration is can Moran command the strike zone. He could be really good. It's probably smart to give him that opportunity.

Very little happened? I look at this in terms of what did they establish and how many do they have in the pipeline that moved forward in terms of establishing they are legit prospects. Put a different way, how many guys stock improved. Let’s start with what players established themselves as MLB pitchers. Starting Pitching – Ryan proved he was for real. Ober established himself but also demonstrated there is reason to believe he has a higher ceiling than we thought. He developed a new slider that sure looked like it’s going to change his trajectory. Relief Pitching - Duran is a great high leverage RP. Jax established himself as a solid BP piece and we should remember Alcala will be back next year. I would not describe establishing 4 new pitchers as very little but it’s not everything I hoped for either. The emergence of Varland / Winder and the development of SWR is also something. No, they have no established themselves at the ML level but they sure looked legit. It will be huge if they are ready to take over the spots vacated by Gray and Mahle next year so that’s actually lining up nicely. Henriquez / Megill and Moran also gave us reason to believe they could contribute. All of this does not equate to “very little” IMO.

I start by signing Rodon. Maeda is either moved to the BP or traded. Sign Andrus to a 1 year deal he can’t refuse. (Whatever that is) Trade Kepler and/or Urshela if the return is good. This plan assumes Kepler is traded and Hannigar added. Fulmer or Rogers signed for the BP. I used $7M but I really don't know what Rogers gets after an up and down 2022. 2023 140,000,000 Starters SALARY OPT 1 Carlos Rodon 25,000,000 2 Sonny Gray 12,000,000 3 Tyler Mahle 8,500,000 4 Joe Ryan 700,000 5 Bailey Ober 700,000 Depth: Varland / SWR / Paddack / Dobnak Relief Pitchers 7 Jorge Lopez 3,000,000 8 Jhoan Duran 700,000 9 Jorge Alcala 700,000 10 Griffin Jax 700,000 11 Caleb Thielbar 2,000,000 12 Josh Winder 700,000 13 Fulmer or Rogers 7,000,000 Megill / Stashak / Sands / Moran / Sisk Catchers 14 Ryan Jeffers 700,000 15 Gary Sanchez 8,000,000 Infielders 16-1B Alex Kirilloff 700,000 17-2B Jorge Polanco 7,500,000 18-3B Jose Miranda 700,000 19-SS Andrus / Lewis 12,000,000 20 Luis Arraez 700,000 21 Gio Urshela 9,000,000 Depth: Martin / Julien / Holland / Williams Outfielders 22 Mitch Hanigar 10,000,000 23 Byron Buxton 15,000,000 24 Trevor Larnach 700,000 25 Nick Gordon 700,000 26 Celestino or Wallner 700,000 X Sano Buyout 2,750,000 X Paddack 3,000,000 TOTAL PAYROLL 130,850,000 93.5% (6.5% under budget)