Dman

I've been a little to slow to come around on Rooker mainly because he has only played one complete season since he has been in the org. HIs K rate is tad over 30% combined but in the dreaded 40% range at AAA. You start getting into that 40 percent range and you are approaching 50% of your at bats are automatic outs with no contact so that is concerning to me. Granted in a very short stint in MLB ball he only K'd at a 25% rate but that was only 19 at bats I believe and once pitchers load up on the breaking balls which seem to be his kryptonite I am still concerned. I will say he has been good for about 900 OPS at every level except AA where he still had a solid 800 OPS and I think he played through injuries that year and it was the only year he came close to playing the whole season. So those 900 OPS's all come with a small sample size warning even his stint in MLB. I am not particularly down on the bat as he has light tower power and a pretty solid approach from what I have read but he will always be a liability in the field as well so his playability seems limited to me. He is a good DH candidate and I don't know if he is horrible at 1st base but it seems like he would give up less defensively there. I know Sano is there already and his bat is bigger and athleticism better as well but keeping Rooker in the outfield will eventually bite the team IMO. Tom has always been Rookers biggest cheerleader and I want to see Rooker succeed as badly as everyone else does I just see some things that make me less certain than others.

I hope we can hang onto Hamilton. He seems like a guy with decent stuff. I think the Twins might be able to help him be successful but you never know. Given the way things have gone the Twins seem to think Gibaut has the most upside as he is the only reliever waiver wire they have kept on the 40 to this point.

Looks like they finally put Hamilton on waivers as Seth predicted. I wonder if he makes it through or not. I guess Gibaut is the last waiver arm standing so they must like him best.

And yet there is enough fan support that there are 30 teams in baseball. Sure some people are bandwagon jumpers. Sure wins increase attendance but a decent amount of fans follow their teams through think and thin. If you are a true fan of the game you don't even need to root for just your own team to enjoy the baseball season. There are other great players and great teams to watch as well.

I was a huge fan of this pick when the Twins made it. He has been young for the level his entire time in MiLB. The main issue I have is his K rate. I thought that with that Elite curve they said he had in high school that the K's would be there. Out of Sands, Windor, Canterino, Duran and Balazovic, Enlow has been the pitcher I have been the least excited about at least to this point. I really, really want to be a believer but he needs to show a dominant stretch at some point to make me truly believe. I am hoping this is the year he puts it all together and makes me look silly for doubting him. If he does develop the Twins seem to have several promising young arms for the rotation. Something I don't think we have ever seen in this organization before. Granted most of them do need to work out and that is far from a sure thing but it is nice to dream on more than one or two guys.

Not sure what to think. They don't have enough left fielders so are grabbing more? I mean I guess I get it the guy looks like he is about to break out at the MLB level and all you have to do is give up another waiver claim to get him but at some point they are going to need to trade some left fielder depth. I can see why they would like him better than Wade with the power numbers but I thought getting the roster down to 6 outfielders was a good idea. Oh well I wasn't overly enamored with Waddell either as I think we have better guys in system then him anyway so no real lose there IMO. If Garlic works out great if not no big deal either.

I agree with you about those guys and again it makes me wonder why this FO doesn't take pitchers earlier in the Draft. Maybe the hit rate is too low on pitchers taken early I don't know but extra pitching to trade is the best currency in baseball to have. I can see why this FO doesn't want to trade away their top pitching talent as we finally might have a few guys ready to work out and the rotation has too many FA's in it at this point. It would help to have low cost young talent come in and help but at the same time why don't they invest more in guys that look like high end pitchers in the draft? especially in the supplemental round.

I think you are being obtuse about unpredictability. What makes it fun is that a team with an under 500 record can beat a team way over 500 on any given day. A player can start with 2 strikes and end up drawing a walk or hitting a home run etc.. etc. If based on players you could predict accurately what would happen (i.e. the Twins were going to lose all their games and Yankees will all of theirs or this player will strike out every time) Would it be any fun to watch? If it was predictable there would be no reason to watch because you would already know the result. You watch because you don't know what will happen. Sure I can agree that if a prospect drops a few spots it is no big deal, heck guys that aren't even at the top of prospect lists sometimes turn out better than those that are. But again my point stands there is also no harm in arguing why you think X player player should be ranked here or there. While I generally agree with your assessment of improvement it doesn't really work when it comes to how prospects are graded. Prospect lists are attempting to capture the likely potential of players at all levels of development and put them in a list top to bottom. Let's say batting average or OPS was your "ultimate measure then players in the GCL with a .998 OPS would be better than a player with an .830 OPS in AAA ball. That wouldn't make sense because the level of competition is so different. Stats only tell us so much and we can't rely on just those to help us predict the odds a player becomes great or a star. They don't give us the snapshot we are looking for which is with the players I have today at all levels what do I think their outcomes look like based on the skillset they have. Like every site they are looking at a players tools as they are today and where they project them to be when ready for MLB. If I take a power hitter that is slow, has a poor arm, poor eye and is K prone with my first pick the odds I am getting a good future player are low. If I take player with less power, who is above average runner, above average arm and etc. that player has a better chance to be a difference maker. The same goes for ratings even though this guy is 18 he has five tools and the potential to be better than guys who have been in the system longer and doing well, a Guy with only 3 tools lets say. The potential for five tools might be there but will that particular player reach it? We don't know, we never know (uncertainty) but at least he starts with the tools to make it. The further the player goes up in levels their potential becomes lower and their skillset higher. The higher they get the more certain we become of where their skills are going to land. That is why players that are almost ready to jump to MLB might be lower than an 18 year old in A ball on prospect lists because they might have sky high potential while the other player at AAA has lost most of their potential and they are the three tool player that they are. Prospect list are just educated guesses based on previous performances of other players and how tools translate to MLB. There is nothing certain about them but what I mentioned earlier stands it can be fun to discuss and dream they become great players for your team.

Yeah with no Elizabethton short season this year there is going to be a high level of competition for those A ball spots to start the year. To me there seems to be a jam up in A ball for 2nd base and SS positions. With Javier and Severino having injured or bad years and needing to repeat A ball will there be room for Holland and Julien or Prato or Santana or Tademo? There are going to be some tougher decisions to make this year. The Twins took a ton of pitchers in 2019 and there won't be room for all of them in A ball either. Good players are going to just have to play against each other I guess. The GCL will be no picnic either as there are tons of young guys that could use the challenge like Urbina, Diaz, Aguiar, Baez, and Rosario and that doesn't even include the guys they will be drafting in 2021. Competition levels will be higher than ever before for spots in levels. I don't think systems will have room for late bloomers anymore. Independent leagues might end up with some pretty good talent to pick from at some point. This year is going to be very interesting to watch.

If they truly believed Cave was the better option they wouldn't have bothered to even bring in Broxton with an opt out. Caves UZR in centerfield is negative -1.9 meaning his defense is below average there. Broxtons is 9.7. That is a huge difference defensively. Not Buxton level defense but better than anything the Twins can offer currently on the 26 man. The bat is a different story as it seems to have been essentially a black hole most of his career. Nobody survives staying in the Majors with a 40% K rate, nobody. He will have to fix that to get back. If Broxton can't get his swing in decent shape then they could be better off with Whitefield taking over as he has wheels and if Broxtons swing remains the same can't be much worse. the only issue there is that Whitefield isn't on the 40 man either so that could be problematic if they needed to keep him on the 40 man or if they expose him to getting claimed. Celestino could work as well but would they really want to burn his options this early? I doubt it. Thus Broxton who is expendable could work. If Buxton stays healthy there isn't much need for Broxton at all but what are the odds he stays healthy an entire season since he hasn't done it yet, I would say low. While Broxton is not a sure thing he'll get a chance if he shows improvement with the bat. If he can't make contact then I guess both parties will have to look elsewhere.

I followed Sands fairly closely last year and am a huge fan. I feel like he just attacks guys and dares them to hit his stuff. I know he has had some minor injuries but golly gee whiz he is fun to follow. If he can continue that type of production at AA and AAA look out he could be crazy good. Urbina is off to a great start and has the look of a star in the making but has a loooong way to go yet. Here's to hoping his bat continues to translate up the levels. I know it is a small sample size at the end of a long season but call me somewhat unimpressed with Wallner. The K rate is concerning and I don't feel like he dominated the lower levels that a good bat should dominate. I'm not saying he is horrible just that I have my concerns. Rooker surprised me. I thought he might be lost in the Majors but he was same hitter as he was at AAA. He has a big bat. I don't love him in the outfield but when Cruz is gone, if he ever is gone, Rooker seems like a decent replacement. I love what Celestino did at the end of A ball but A ball is not the true test. High A is the true test. I am curious to see if can keep things going as he moves up. If he can wow what a find. He and Buxton can probably share time if it comes to that or they can move him all over the outfield and improve the defense. He has a way to go and I hope he makes it because he could give the team great depth. There are some very good players in this mix it is just hard to say if they can pick up where they left off.

From what I read I believe the knock on Maeda is that he became less effective as the season wore on, thus the reliever role. It isn't often that a season is only going to be 60 games so I am not sure what to think just yet. Since we don't have a huge budget having a top of the rotation starter for the money he makes might be the biggest benefit the Twins got in the deal. It is incredibly hard to find a pitcher of his quality for the price commanded for the years of control. I don't see Graterol getting worse unless he ends up injured in a significant way so it is not like the Dodgers got robbed but trading a starter for a reliever usually makes it hard to win a trade. I think if Graterol reaches elite status as a reliever and the second round pick works out then the trade is closer. I think you need to look at this trade in greater context though. The Dodgers weren't concerned about "winning" this trade. They had guys to fill his spot and needed to put Price on the roster to help facilitate the Betts trade. If you add that in then the Dodgers came out just fine by getting one of the best players in baseball. I also wouldn't discount the second round pick. The Dodgers have been pretty darn good at identifying arms that can transition to MLB. I am sure they did their due diligence on the guys arm and they wouldn't have picked him in the second round if they didn't think he would make it. Friedman rarely loses a trade and I wouldn't bet against him on this one either, but even if he does lose this trade in the end he came out ahead with Betts and got something for a guy he felt they didn't have room for anyway. In essence from his perspective he has already won the trade as with the moves he made they won a World Series but yes in a vacuum this trade looks like a good one for Minnesota as well.

I don't know what to think of Ober with a fastball under 90 MPH and yet the K rate is crazy good and it has always been good. Fangraphs can't come up with a profile like his that has succeeded in MLB. Maybe he can do it maybe he can't but we need to find out soon as I believe he will be 26 in July. I have been disappointed in Miranda for a while now. I agree with what you have to say but it needs to show on the field hopefully this is the year. I don't know what to think about Solarie. I know they grabbed him for his hit tool and if he can play 2nd and left field that is good by me. I read somewhere that some scouts don't see the bat translating to MLB. I guess we will know more after this year or next but taking a guy with a good eye and good contact can't be a bad thing can it? I'll let other drool over Rortvedt. I think he is solid behind the plate but would like to see a better hit tool. Maybe this is the year? Colina has a plus slider but I believe the fastball lacks movement. I know it was just one shot in MLB but I am not sure the fastball will play there. He has had a lot of success and reliever seems like the best spot for him to succeed so hopefully he finds what he needs to be elite out of the pen. I like all of these guys but another year to evaluate should better help see where they are and whether they can make it or not.

He has an opt out so if the Twins don't use him He can cut the cord. I agree with those that say he is injury insurance. If Buck stays healthy we really don't need him but even if they need him for a couple of weeks I think they can find room on the 40 man. They aren't going to, and essentially can't keep, all those waiver claimed pitchers on the 40 man past this year. They brought in Waddell, Gibuat and Hamilton to see which of them works out. They aren't all going to make it unless maybe they appear better than Collina who essentially has the same stuff or Chalmers who has had trouble throwing strikes . They also will likely at some point this year or next need to add Cantrino and Sands and if Windor is as good as advertised they might want to add him as well or maybe finally Rijo if he has a better year. Larnach, Miranda and Vallimont would have to be added next year if they prove themselves this year. The waiver wire guys will have a lot to prove to stick around. I think if Broxton isn't a complete waste at the plate in the spring and we have a need he will be on the 40 man. He is the perfect defensive replacement for Buxton and if he fixes his stroke just a little isn't that far off from what Buxton has given us offensively to this point anyway. It might hurt a little but they can carry him if they need to and he proves he is worthy.

I am hoping that Will Holland can find his stroke and prove he should have been a 1st round draft pick in 2019. We really could use another up the middle prospect with speed that could move fairly fast. So hopefully he has a good year. Out of this list I am the most excited about Windor. He had a really, really good first full season in A ball and if that velocity increase is for real I have a really good feeling he could be a mid rotation starter. So far most all of it is hype but hoping he shows he is ready to back it up. I haven't been hearing a ton of buzz about Chalmers but I am a big believer in him as a reliever. Would be nice to hear that his change up is improving and that his fastball gained more movement but I haven't heard a thing so really waiting to see how he does in an extended season of work. I got to watch Spencer Steer in Beloit and he looked good at the plate although he did go 0 for 3 that night. Nice eye at the plate, good hard swing, he looks like a hitter but he'll need to be better to make it. For pitcher I am betting on Windor to make the most movement on this list and I am going out on a limb and saying Holland for the bat, stolen bases and defense to move him up the rankings. Let's see if those other guys can prove me wrong.

Caring about sports in general is a foolhardy exercise. There is no real value in it other than bragging rights and yet it is a billion dollar industry with millions of fans. Great prospects create great teams and while we can't predict with great accuracy who will work out it is fun to watch, measure, guess and predict who might impact the major league club. If it is something you don't enjoy that's fine. You can foolhardily watch the Twins win and lose in 2021. We enjoy watching the games because we can't predict what will happen. We watch prospects and hope they will make our team better even if we can't predict who will or won't make it accurately. Rankings are superficial, they are in all sports and yet we like to read about them and talk about them. I think the same applies with the foolhardy ranking of prospects. It is just fun to see what everyone thinks and why.

Yeah I agree with your analysis but you also have to remember that stat watching can give biased results. I remember a lot of us myself included discounting the pundits about Gonsalves because he had a decent ERA and good strike out numbers but after seeing him live he looked much more like the number 5 projection they gave him than the 3 or 4 most of us had him at. If Durans numbers improve at the higher levels his MLB projection will change along with it. If you look at his WHIP while it isn't horrible he does seem pretty hittable yet. He'll need to be more dominant than he has been to make it IMO. Maybe this is the year he changes people minds about him not having the stuff to be a top of the rotation starter. I hope so as I am banking on him being a difference maker.

Nick that was a great article absolutely loved it! Very well written. I totally agree with you as well. The luster has worn off for all of us but you can't keep a ball player like Willians down for long. I think he bounces back and I too like his versatility for this team. If there are injuries he is a great player to plug in. I am still a believer. I just love what he brings to the game. I admire that despite his physical limitations he can play the game at the highest level. He might not be a superstar but he is an inspiration to many of us. He's had some tough times but this guy is a fighter I think he finds some of that magic again this year. Can't wait to watch him play.

Not sure I can agree with you on Lewis. None of the players ahead of him have 5 tool potential he is the only one and prospect lists are based on potential not stats. I agree his hit tool is suspect and he might not be a 5 tool player in the end but he is only 22 with only one bad year so far. I think it is too early to have him that low. Surprised by your Kirilloff, Larnach switch but I can get behind it. I know Kirilloff's bat is "special" but having a good eye and making pitchers work is a very important if underrated skill to have and Larnach has it. I think I still like Kirilloff slightly better as I think he has the better power profile but I can see your point. No one has put Jeffers that high mainly based on potential but I agree catchers who can hit and defend are rare and should be treated as the special commodity they are. Two is a little high for me but again I can see it so not that big of a deal for me. I was more disappointed than you with Wallner. Granted he hasn't had much time to prove himself but I am questioning the bat a bit right now. I wouldn't have him this high yet but it is such a small sample size I could be wrong. He has the arm for right but is still a bit of liability defensively there since he doesn't run that well so that brings him down some for me. Power is his calling card but the bat needs to be special to be in this territory IMO and I am not sure it is just yet.

Yeah I did hear the FO believes Chalmers can start and they might know best but he is a pitcher that has had high WHIPs pretty much all the way up and that's not good for a starter. He has already had TJ surgery once so I don't think I would push it. Fangraph's has him as a reliever and I think the Twins should keep him as a reliever. I mean they already have Balazovich, Duran, and Canterino on the rise with Sands and maybe Windor not far behind with starter type arm's that haven't needed TJ to this point. He has never pitched over 60 innings in a season to date why tempt fate? Chalmer's is a potential elite pen arm and I think he is best suited to that role. Ober is technically a starter and has the WHIP to be one but almost no one at the MLB level throws as slow as he does with any success. He is a control artist that teams would likely catch on to the third time around if not sooner. He has also complained about how his body feels after pitching and he has been hurt pretty much every year. Again Fangraphs has him pegged for the pen and I tend to agree. He has a variety of pitches that could make him good to elite out of the pen and isn't exactly young turning 26 this July. I think the pen is the most likely place he finds success and they need to figure out if he can be successful at the higher levels or not as he is taking up a valuable 40 man spot. I would hope the Twins would put both of those players in the roles their bodies are most acclimated for and give them a chance to make the MLB sooner rather than later.

I think that list looks pretty accurate. I agree Thorpe has the inside track on a spot as he is a lefty without options. Ian Hamilton looks very interesting and like someone who could help this year in low leverage situations. I think he has good enough control that we could see him this year. I wouldn't sleep on Chalmers and Ober as they are not not on the 40 man just to take up space. I know Chalmers has control problems but if we are expecting the Twins to fix Anderson then they should be able to help Chalmers who has a good fastball and elite curveball. Ober is a long shot but he has had some very good results in the past. He actually has good control and could leap frog all the other guys with control problems if he continues to have success with his repertoire of pitches.

Cruz did the right thing by waiting to see if the NL got the DH. He was right to try and get the Twins to give him two years as he just gave them two years of outstanding production. If I was in charge of the FO i probably would have bent for the two years. The FO came out OK on this one only because they had a solid plan B. Although I think that plan might have back fired if they lost Cruz but I guess we will find out this year when we see if Cruz continues to Cruz or regress. It is the best outcome the FO could have gotten IMO and if Cruz does well this year I think this works out well for him as well as there will be big bidders for his services once the NL has the DH likely next year. So Kudos to both sides I think in the end they both will get what they wanted.

Personally I don't think it will be Tortuga. If they have injuries his versatility is too nice an asset to remove. I don't remember who said it but someone on the board mentioned it and I agree that the Twins don't need three relief pitcher Slider plus pitch waiver claims on the 40 man. One of them needs to go. Colina and Chalmers are essentially the same type of pitcher as those three so there is plenty of redundancy there. I think it will be Gibaut or Waddell I have no idea who they like better Waddell looks more like a normal pitcher but from what I read Gibaut supposedly has wicked spin on his slider. IMO it really needs to be one of those guys.

That is crazy money and the Dodgers have a crazy good team. Looks like they don't want the Padres to catch them.

Of all the waiver claims stat wise this one is the best one this year. At least this guy can throw strikes and his low WHIP means he doesn't walk many and doesn't give up tons of hits. I wonder why other teams ahead of us didn't want to pick him up? Too many full 40 man's? IMO I think this was a decent pickup for a change.