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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    Lot's of people on this board were hoping he might fall to the Twins from the very beginning of the Mocks this year. He has been too good this year to fall to 8. If he did fall out of the top 5 it would be almost impossible for MIami not to take him at number 6. He would be an elite fast moving bat that can play 2nd or third at likely a plus level. That is exactly what Miami needs and there is a chance he falls to 6 but I can't see him falling further than being Miami's dream scenario pick. Even the Cubs would likely want him. If he was one of the top 7 to fall to the Twins it would be an easy call even though we already have a glut of 2nd/3rd baseman type players. The bat is just too good to pass up.
  2. Dman
    Have you looked at Wander Javier's splits for June and July? June .278/.374/.506 so far in July .333/.447/.600. I know you have always been a believer and right now he looks like the player everyone hoped he could be. Good batting average. Very nice OBP. Hitting for power and supposedly plays good defense. He is slightly old for the level right now but if he keeps this up he still has a chance to be a difference maker type of player. AA is the real test but those are very encouraging numbers the last two months. He still needs to remain consistent and hold those numbers but maybe just maybe he is a late bloomer that eventually puts it all together.
  3. Dman
    That could end up being a pretty accurate top 10 of the draft. Berry has pretty much been included in the top 8 of most mocks since the beginning of the year so would not be surprised if the Twins took him there. Still hoping and or thinking the Marlins might grab him at number 6. He is a switch hitter with power and a fast mover which is just what Miami needs. Seems like an almost perfect value and need to me but who knows what they think. The Twins have a glut at 1st base and DH so not really a need and no need for a fast mover to one of those positions either. It isn't the best fit for the Twins IMO but he still might be the best all around bat available at 8. If you believe in best available and that hit tool is the most important tool then Berry might be it. Cross would still be in the mix there as well since he can play defense so might be the likely play for Minnesota. I still think Neto has an outside chance. I know his potential lack of power will likely not meet the Twins model but a 6% K rate has to perk their ears up as contact is so key for success and the lower the K rate the better the odds for a higher batting average. He also should be able to stick at short a position of need in the system. I wouldn't mind taking a chance on Jett Williams who is rising up boards. He might take longer to get there but he would stack in nicely with the next big wave of hitters the Twins have coming up.
  4. Dman
    I just mentioned the other day that Povich needed to be more consistent. Walk fewer guys and give up fewer hits. I guess he must have read my post or maybe just wanted to shut me up. At any rate that was a heck of a performance and I am back on the bandwagon again. When he is on he is one awesome pitcher. Too many good hitting performances to comment on all of them but wanted to say Carlos Aquiar had a big night for Fort Myers going 4 for 4 with a HR. He is listed as a center fielder but not sure what kind of speed he has. If he can stick in center he is one to watch as he has power and seems like he can hit. He is aggressive at the plate right now and a very SSS but someone to dream on if he can stick in center as the Twins don't have a ton of depth there. Also nice to see Urbina back and am hoping for good things with the bat from him as well. A very good night on the farm for lot's of players hope these young guys can keep it going.
  5. Dman
    I don't love the low average but I think you have to remember Buxton has been playing through injury and is still one of the better players in baseball. I think this Graphic from Gleeman should summarize the value of what Byron brings versus someone like Arraez who has the best batting average in baseball.
  6. Dman
    Yeah I don't disagree. His WHIP is up and K's are down. His ERA looks real good but FIP and xFIP say it is smoke and mirrors at this point. The issue is though the contract is structured for a starter, He has always been a starter. When you do incentive laden contracts and don't follow through in good faith then nobody wants to sign incentive laden contracts with that FO\Club. The Twins have always operated in good faith I don't see that changing in this scenario. They are operating in good faith with Buxton as well. I guess if his performance level falls to his expected FIP rate then maybe the Twins have a case to try and change course but with Archer having a decent 3.08 ERA he seems to be holding up his end for the most part. Yeah he needs to go longer but when you do contracts like that there has to be a little dance around those incentives. I think if Archer can continue to do what he is doing he can find a 10M or more per year contract as a starter. He hadn't done much of anything in the past few years and is still on track for his 9.5 Million incentive laden contract for this year. He would have to be lights out in the pen to get that as a reliever and I don't know how he would fare coming out of the pen. I think he is who he is with plenty of warts but somehow he has made things work more often than not this season. We will see if that holds or not.
  7. Dman
    I don't disagree and if the Twins were willing to change the reading of the contract from starts to just appearances I am guessing all would be well on that front from a money standpoint. As things stand you can see the Twins have done everything they can to give him starts and so far have barely pushed him over the 9 outs threshold. They are holding up their end of the bargain in good faith so far. I assume they will continue to and hope Archer can start getting to 5 innings or more from here on out. I think given the walks and inability to go five innings he looks much better as a pen arm but he leaves a lot of money on the table if he gives up now. He is playing for a contract next year as well so I don't think a reliever role will go over well with him. I think he is a starter unless he does get a season ending injury. It also looks like with the 9 outs per appearance language they thought about piggy backing him so while that doesn't completely solve the problem it does provide for some flexibility in how they use him.
  8. Dman
    Yeah I don't know if Archer would be inclined to move to the pen given the incentives in the contract unless the Twins were willing to amend it. According to ESPN's Jeff Passan, the team reached an agreement with right-hander Chris Archer on a one-year, $3.5 million contract. The deal can reach as high as $9.5 million with performance bonuses "based on games started or outings with nine or more outs." The way I read that is If in the bullpen he won't be starting games and if they don't let him go three innings from the pen it is going to be hard for him to get 9 or more outs per outing. The Twins need to and will operate in good faith to allow him to reach those incentives that is why I think Archer to the pen is a long shot.
  9. Dman
    Yeah I am probably over exaggerating the few more memorable failures or success's as you said but still it is the way I feel. It probably isn't rational but this darn game defies all logic a good portion of the time anyway so yeah you are probably right more than likely just random luck. I know in some of the games we lost to lessor pitching we hit balls hard they just didn't fall in or or go out. Sometimes things just don't work out. At any rate I know not to take a good team like the Brewers for granted. I hope the bats are hot and the pitching great but who knows what will happen until they play the game.
  10. Dman
    I love that you write about the draft so I am not complaining at all. We all want him to fall to us but being at 8 is a tough spot this year IMO.
  11. Dman
    I have a bit of bad feeling going into this series. What Tom forgets is that this years Twins team has been great against good pitchers and struggled against lessor pitchers far too often. These teams have been pretty evenly matched in recent years and with the Twins pen being so vulnerable makes this series far from a slam dunk even though the Brewers are not throwing their best pitchers out there. It all looks good on paper but will have to wait and see how the Twins perform. Winning both games would really help with the White Sox coming to town. With Cleveland and Chicago beating up on each other right now winning these games could be huge.
  12. Dman
    I just don't see Parada making it to the Twins. Even if he slipped past Washington he would be a dream pick for the Marlins and probably the Cubs as well. A catcher who is likely a fast mover because the bat will be advanced would be hard to pass up. Seems like a pretty safe pick as well with the good eye at the plate. We can dream but the odds are long that he makes it to the Twins.
  13. Dman
    Two amazing players that deserve to be there. I mean if the current leader in batting average can't make the team something is wrong. Buxton a bit more of a surprise for me but probably shouldn't be. His talent on offense and defense is elite and he is a great teammate. I love watching him play and he will be a lot of fun to watch in the All Star game. Both guys have worked really hard to get there but have to love that they included the entire team, coaches and players in their success. The support from both obviously is a difference maker to them. Congrats to both men on being two of better players in baseball and making the All Star team.
  14. Dman
    That is a good question. I could see the Twins sending Celestino down as he has options and is a right handed bat and they can use Gordon in center to sub for Buxton at least short term. Still even if they find room on the 26 man who can he replace in the lineup? When the Twins face Lefties they can use Urshela at 3rd, Miranda and 1st and Garlic in the DH spot as he mashes lefties. When the pitcher is a righty they have Arraez or Kirilloff at 1st and DH with Gordon or Kirilloff in left. I guess they could maybe use Sano in the DH spot more but there might be better hitters for that spot and it would mean Buxton and Correa wouldn't DH anymore so his bat better be productive. He needs to come up hot and stay hot to stay in the lineup and the Twins will lose some flexibility just putting him on the 26 man but they can do it.
  15. Dman
    I like Isola the best out of that group as he could have a really good hit tool that can translate. Not sure about his defense but Seth says solid so I will take his word for it. Haven't seen Isola in a while though so I assume he is injured? Still he has the most potential to be at least a number 2 catcher IMO. Hamilton is a bit of a streaky hitter. There are times it looks like he might be dominant and then he falls off. Still I think he would be a solid 3rd catcher. Personally I haven't been a huge fan of Camargo's all or nothing approach. I think his aggressive approach stops working as he move up but maybe he has better bat to ball skills than I realize although his K rate tells a different story. He was having a nice year until injured but I think he is more a wild card than a sure thing. I am coming around on Winkel. The Twins must think the bat will play as they paid him way over slot in the draft. So far he is a little old for the level and just OK with the bat but this is his first year so hard to say at this point but hopeful that he can be a solution.
  16. Dman
    The things I like about Povich are his K rate and that he is a solid lefty pitcher. While he has held his own at High A to this point there do seem to be signs of him falling off. His WHIP has been rising giving up more hits and walks means there is more to work on IMO. I like that the Twins pushed him to High A as I think he was up for the challenge. He is the best lefty I have seen in the Twins system probably ever and Hajjar is right there with him. Just hope he can keep refining his stuff to be even more unhittable.
  17. Dman
    Not that I have been watching the DSL that long but I have to agree there generally is not much home run action at that level. This kid must be something to watch. No way they move him to the FSL this year but I sure hope they do next year. If the BA and power are there, no reason not too. Also nice to see Mercedes performing as advertised. Taking three walks so good plate discipline, hitting well, stealing bases. Only thing he hasn't done is hit for power. He has a nice build and power is generally the last thing to come unless of course you are Jose Rodriguez. At any rate good to see some of those picks performing well right out of the gates.
  18. Dman
    Festa has far and away been the most consistent starting pitcher in the system this year. Would really like to see them move him to AA after the all star break to get acclimated to one of the toughest levels for a pitcher. That would put him in good shape to possibly be a difference maker next year. I like Povich and it has been a solid year but he does seem to go off the rails sometimes. Not sure why that is. Still I could see the Twins moving him up to AA as well keep him at high A. Again if they push it sets him up better to be a lefty option next year if needed\warranted.
  19. Dman
    Wow! his latest mock could be the shakeup you guys were talking about. Marlins could legit use a fast moving College bat as they are starved for offense. Berry could/should be a fast mover and is an offensive dream player. If they get a discount to boot that would make a lot of sense for them. Not so sure what the Cubs might do but if that is the way the things shake out Parada is an excellent offensive catcher with power and would be a good get at 7. He should be a fast mover as well. Still they could just as easily take Collier there. Hard to say but maybe the Twins get what they need at 8 yet. Even if the Cubs took Collier instead of Parada having an offensive catcher drop to the Twins would be just as good and maybe even a better scenario. The Twins can afford to wait for Collier to develop as they have a lot of offense at the top levels as it is. It would be a really good fit if that is what happens.
  20. Dman
    Most of the guys on that list did pretty well at the MLB so they have that going for them. They both have great season's and deserve the honor. Congrats to both players.
  21. Dman
    If he was there this would be a no brainer for me. I would rank him top 5 with the other high school players ahead of him due to greater position flexibility. He and Johnson would be essentially tied IMO. The odds of him making it to 8 are astronomically low. Someone that young doing what he is doing as far as hitting, plate discipline and to some degree power make him as close to a sure thing as you are going to get. Guys that perform that well, that young have a lot of all star upside as well. If he fell to 8 they better grab him.
  22. Dman
    Let me second that. I too like Sands in the pen and it seems hard to believe he could be much worse than Duffy or Pagan. At any rate I just don't see him holding up as a starter. He gets some rest gets back in the lineup does well then wears down again rinse, wash, repeat. I still think he has the pitches to get outs, but I think the pen is the best spot for him.
  23. Dman
    Count me in as conflicted on Neto vs Williams as well. Williams runs better but Neto has the better arm they both have good contact skills. I see Neto as the faster mover and more likely to stick at short but the extra speed Jett brings is nice to have in the back pocket as well. Even with an average arm Center could work for Williams. Revere had a below average arm and made it work. Not ideal but it can work. Hard to say who will end up better with the bat and OnBase skills but it would be hard to beat Neto's numbers. still Williams is three years younger so he has time to catch up. I think if you want the better option to stick at short it is Neto but if you want that speed and possibly elite bat maybe it is Williams. Tough call but that is what the Twins get paid the big bucks for.
  24. Dman
    Totally agree Doc. I am getting seriously worried about Detroit and their pretty much lock down pen. They get their young starting pitchers back next year and I think they are going to be tough next year. I love Ryan but was disappointed that he got ahead with 2 strikes only to give in with a walk or hit too often. Just the emotional me coming out. Yeah not overly serious on asking Jeffers to strike out but like many other just felt like he would hit into the double play and of course he did never giving our best hitter a chance. I mean if he hits a home run there I am like Jeffers is the greatest. He just hasn't been that great at the plate and like many others I felt a pinch hitter there in the 10th made sense. Sometimes things go your way sometimes they don't. You can just see that if this pen was better this team could look really good.
  25. Dman
    First let me say Thank You to Detroit who swept Cleveland in a four game series. At least we are not the only ones in the division that have trouble with the Tigers. Ryan needs to find that put away pitch or he is destined for more games like this. Pagan will not survive the season, he has negative value at this point. Megill has to be more careful with 2 strikes. He gets out of that inning without giving up runs and that game is ours. Jeffers don't try to be a hero at least have the decency to strike out so that Arraez gets one last chance to drive in the runs. Why they didn't pitch hit for the black hole bat in the 10th inning only the spreadsheet knows. Another winnable game lost by the pen who gave up 6 runs, 6. They gave up more runs than the starter. Just have to wait this out until the deadline I guess but we could be up 10 games in the division if the pen could hold leads.
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