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Richie the Rally Goat

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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat

  1. Richie the Rally Goat
    agreed, just kind of iffy...
  2. Richie the Rally Goat
    Romero won't be full season in the bigs next year. His most innings pitched has been 90 last year. Assume health that puts 120-130 at most this year. 140-150 next year.
  3. Richie the Rally Goat
    ahh the Euphemisms! Nothing so invigorating as a Gap/Fit analysis where we tip toe around the Issue to find Best Practices and Innovative Resources. It's just like The Office and my office!
  4. Richie the Rally Goat
    Romero's career high for innings in a season is 90 set last year. He's got 85 innings so far in '17. I doubt he's still pitching in September, but he could get a few relief appearances for the Twins in August.
  5. Richie the Rally Goat
    Snepp! It feels like a very long time since I've seen you in the forums. Good to hear from you
  6. Richie the Rally Goat
    or that Colon can't be the DH
  7. Richie the Rally Goat
    theres always interleague. At Dodgers July 24, at Milwaukee in August Fantastic Video Dave!
  8. Richie the Rally Goat
    what? We can't statistically say he's done?
  9. Richie the Rally Goat
    the metric being discussed in the thread is XFIP, not FIP. There is a subtle difference discussed below. Trying to predict ERA makes no sense. Why would fielding INDEPENDENT pitching predict ERA that is a fielding DEPENDENT stat? The purpose of the metric is to predict pitchers performance independent of the defense behind them on an ERA scale for easy comparison to a widely available metric. FIP uses actual home runs given up. Since home runs per fly ball vary a lot in small sample, XFIP uses league average home runs per fly ball rate against the pitchers fly ball rate. On a league wide scale, home runs per fly ball increases the sample size large enough to stabilize. I do agree that statistical changes are the interesting part of the game. However isolating the variables is the only way to predict outcomes. Isolating defense from run prevention gives us a better picture of the pitchers effect on the game. In this case Santiago is really interesting. The ongoing correlation of lower than expected homeruns to fly ball rate might lead one to believe he has a skill. It also might lead one to believe he's been lucky. SIERRA has some promise, I plan on doing some research. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/xfip/
  10. Richie the Rally Goat
    its on the ERA scale. It tried to predict how well a pitcher pitches regardless of defense
  11. Richie the Rally Goat
    at 70.1 inning pitched this season, we haven't even hit that threshold so agreed, the 6.13 xFIP is not exactly rock solid, but directionally does hold some value. However the quote earlier was career xFIP. Santiago has 785 career innings = 5.01 career xFIP that seems to hold some weight.
  12. Richie the Rally Goat
    ever? Think that little of the FO already? The point was, there's other options than Vargas and Park.
  13. Richie the Rally Goat
    Mauer is signed thru 2018. It's very possible Brent Rooker takes over 2019. If he or another in house option isn't available/ready, a Mike Napoli type is usually available. I'm not worried about Vargas/Park. Time to get Granite a taste of the bigs. Can never have too much ML talent
  14. Richie the Rally Goat
    agreed, xfip has its flaws, disagree on utility. Can you tell me that pitcher's ERA would not be impacted by an outfield defense of Josh Wiilingham, Sam Fuld/Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia (2014) relative to Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler(2017)? Is that not a valuable information set to try to parse out?
  15. Richie the Rally Goat
    i missed the part regarding Gladden's opinions regarding constitution of a good pitcher. Sorry. Kinda confused why Gladden's opinions would be relevant, but analysis done independently would not.
  16. Richie the Rally Goat
    His Career ERA is 4.00 and his career XFIP is 5.01. it appears his ERA has been positively impacted by things outside of his control.
  17. Richie the Rally Goat
    I do not believe there are only two ways to analyze a situation. There are many ways to look at situations and sometimes it's ok point out flaws as a to-do list. I always prefer the here's the issue: here's my proposed solution approach.
  18. Richie the Rally Goat
    I think Berrios' failure in 2016 led to his success of 2017. Berrios hadn't really failed previously. He's shown the fortitude to overcome that failure. I think that fortitude is an important soft skill required to make that early jump viable. As a person by person trait, some people have it, and others don't. It seems the FO saw that fortitude in Jorge, and in Romero, to where they thought, if they stretch those guys further than they are ready, they will respond positively and make the adjustments and put in the work to realize the goal. I do like the idea of stretching many of these double A pitchers to get the youth movement started. It will also provide a mechanism to pull the whole "supply chain" of minor league pitching forward. The Twins need to develop depth behind Jorge, Romero and Gonsalves in a hurry.
  19. Richie the Rally Goat
    that line of thought is why Terry Ryan is no longer GM. Starters 6-7 need to be as good as 5, and 8-10 need to be knocking on the door to the bigs. That is the kind of depth required to keep your rotation stocked year in/year out and win World Series
  20. Richie the Rally Goat
    It isn't semantics when the teams that use the fewest starting pitchers use 8, and the average is 10.5. Your best hope is to use fewer starters than average. At 9, you are still locked in to players who are equated with stuff you flung at a well. Right now pitchers signed for the Rotation of 2018 are Santana Berrios Hughes May And the prospects we've been relying on for 8-10. So need to find 4 starters and 4-5 relievers for 2018? No problem
  21. Richie the Rally Goat
    in 2015 and in most seasons, the fewest number of starters a team uses is 8 and the average is 10 to 11. If those guys are 8,9,10 you ARE counting on all 3. Sucky part about signing guys like Tepesch and Gee is they don't usually have options, which is why they are available to begin with.
  22. Richie the Rally Goat
    I don't think you can count on all 3, might not hurt to try to trade for or sign some AA and AAA depth pieces too
  23. Richie the Rally Goat
    agreed, but Phil Hughes and Glen Perkins were never going to be ready in 2017 at all. They had to replace those two with high quality pitchers. Abject failure by the FO there. Every other bad break and failure of pitching this year, I agree, "hind sight" and "let's see what we got" are very valid arguments for how the FO operated.
  24. Richie the Rally Goat
    the post was promote Romero to AAA then (edit) release (end edit) Pino - you and I are not making the same assumptions. I feel that the pipeline to the bigs needs to be pulled through to jump start some additional replacements. They need to develop more younger talent this year to avoid repeating 2017's rotation caravan of scrap heap cast offs. 28 pitchers used and only a couple of them are "prospects". This has been year 6 of this mess. Gotta get the prospects through the pipeline more experience at higher levels, including high A pitchers experience in AA.
  25. Richie the Rally Goat
    i didn't realize he's on the DL. He's not the issue with the Twins, however the pipeline to the bigs needs to have a higher number of 5th/6th starter (Rosario/Jorge) types and higher upside types, and fewer org filler types. He's not the issue, but the DFA scrap heap needs to be improved upon
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