MeleMouth

Good points and list, except Ryan should be traded.

Add Kremer, a #5 starter, to those three middle relievers and they collectively pushed in two white chips.

In terms of talent, the 2024 collapse was worst by a lot. The 2026 team overperformed its talent in the first half, giving the mirage of a good team, but even then their last winning record was 12-11, so it's not like expectations of great success ever should have been realistic. However, none hold a candle to 1977: Rod Carew hits .388 to win MVP, Lyman Bostock finishes #2 in AL BA, Larry Hisle leads the AL in RBIs, in first place for 66 days, last on August 16 at 68-51, ends the season fourth in the AL West, 17 games back, winning their last two games to finish 84-77,

All teams play different players at different times for different purposes over a 162 game season. "Getaway" days were a tradition for many years where, at least once a week, someone other than the starters played. That wasn't trying to lose - that was managing your assets for the long term success of the season. Some of us are fine with and even wish for some sacrifices now for long-term sustainable success. If you consider making any kind of sacrifice to be "tanking," then that's fine, but treating every game or series as must-win has produced a series of disappointing seasons for the Twins.

Between Hoffman, Gomez, Morris, Banda, Raya, Funderburk, and Nance, the Twins think they already have the basis for a "decent" bullpen in 2027. Paying $10+ million for a reliever usually works out badly. This year, perhaps at least half of the relievers making $8+ million would not have been "decent," and the Twins can't afford such risks. Minter's a fine pitcher, but he's actually an example on how spending on relievers isn't a great idea: the "value" he has produced this year is calculated as being $8 million less than his $11 million contract. Many relievers at his rate actually produced less "value." If the Twins want to be competitive, then they need to prioritize spending elsewhere. However, if they decide to rebuild and if that rebuild will include a bunch of inexperienced starters from whom they expect limited innings, then I might agree with you that they should try to strengthen the bullpen.

Clemens adjusts to address his deficiencies, does whatever the team asks, and just runs around the bases after hitting a home run instead of making ten different gestures and whoops: which more talented player does that NOT sound like?

Let's see where he's at after about 40 times putting the bat on the ball, unless his contact rates start to plummet. If his exit velocities, barrel or squared up rates, and contact rates are trending up, let him continue. Otherwise, yes, back to AAA to work on skills, not results.

Why would they want Minter as a free agent? They're already paying Hoffman $7+ million next year. With all the other positions that need upgrades, it's hard to believe the Twins would want to pay a second reliever around or more than $10 million. Further, if they do want Minter, they just have to offer him more money than anyone else. He's not going to take a deal from a team that offers him less than the Twins just because the Twins used him less at the end of the season. Same with Bradley: if before or during next season they offer him a good deal for the next four or five years, he's not going to turn it down because he didn't pick up a win at the end of 2026 due to choice of relievers. They all know it's a business. If their feelings got hurt as easily as you suggest, several other things would have derailed their careers long before any of us ever heard of them.

I can't think of a prospect ever who got to keep a job in perpetuity without performing well.

Wow. You really think these guys have never thought that winning was the goal of playing sports? Or that playing young players for development instead of veterans for wins might warp their behavior for the rest of their careers? Sorry for the snark, but like for like.

Nothing against Minter, but the only reasons to pitch him now would be either if you want to try to get to 78 wins instead of 74 or you don't want to overuse anyone else.

Right now the Twins are on track for the 10th or 11th draft pick and actually don't have much in the minors that could contribute at the beginning of next year, except Raya in the bullpen, ERod if they let him and clear room in the outfield, and Rojas if they clear room in the rotation. Both ERod and Rojas would be swaps who are unlikely to be much better than the current player in the spot. That's about the worst outcome possible when a team is trying to compete: finishing way out of the playoffs, but too high for a premium draft pick; and using up most of your prospects while not gaining additional assets for the future. Of course, improvement from Culpepper and Jenkins should be expected in 2027, and perhaps also from Bradley and Abel. But they are also going to lose their catcher, perhaps the most valuable player in 2026, without an equal replacement, and who knows about their centerfielder, who was an MVP candidate in the first half, but has been delaying major surgery for two months since then in the hope that he could hobble around for five innings in the playoffs. Note: all three teams that traded major league players to the Twins at the deadline in exchange for prospects have won more games since the trades than the Twins have. That isn't a slam on the players, but is a bad mark against management, which misread the situation and then executed their plans poorly. Also, in case anyone is wondering: Ryan Sprock, the catching prospect who was traded for the not awful but nearly needless Nance, who has had only had one clean full inning since joining the Twins, hit .307/.410 OBP/.553 SLG in A+ for Toronto, for a .963 OPS and 150 wRC+.

I don't have a big problem with Shelton. This team's record is not his fault and maybe a tiny bit to his credit. However, for years the Twins have been an "old friends" home, where they overvalued continuity and familiarity with the organization. They could really use a shake-up with some clashes of opinions. Now, I don't think that'll happen, because that's never how Pohlads run their businesses, and too much clashing can be an even bigger problem - see Vikings "Triangle of Authority" - but the Twins need someone of authority who can come in and tell them the truth of what they might be doing wrong, including to the owner, without worrying too much about whether people don't want to hear it. Maybe Joe Madden would fit that need.

This year, they didn't "collapse." They regressed to their talent level, which they had exceeded during the first half.

Looks great! I hope it happens.

I gave alternates - hit better than Roden or show something special in your skills. Loud outs would be great, as would good strike zone control, but Jenkins hasn't shown either yet. You are right that it's too early to make a final judgment, but it's not too early to become concerned. For example, max exit velocity is something that stabilizes relatively quickly. Right now, the only players on the 2026 Twins with lower max EV are Fedko, Arcia, Outman, and Gonzalez. All are gone or will be soon. General exit velocity stabilizes a little later, but not too late. Right now, the only Twins below Walker are Arcia, Keaschall, Outman, and Gonzalez. Keaschall has a much better contact rate. The others are gone or should be soon. Contact rate stabilizes relatively quickly, also, His contact rate is similar to Kreidler's and Buxton's, but Buxton, as we know, hits the ball really hard. Jenkins has not. Even Kreidler has better hard hit rates, barrel rate, and exit velocities. (Gray, Lewis, Fedko, Outman, and Wallner are below them.) I'm not looking for results, I'm looking for him to display skills. Finally, of all fan bases, Twins fans should be among the first to be done with this "it's all going to work out" mantra. Actually, one possible comp is 2015 Byron Buxton, who had similar barrel, hard hit, and contact rates at age 21 with poor results. He approached sub-par the next year and had a pretty good year the year after that, although it was largely driven by all-world defense as his offense remained below replacement level. After missing most of the next season with an injury, Buxton then had his first above-average year on offense the following year, in 2019 when he was 25 and missed another half-season with an injury.

Jenkins' bat speed is about league average. HIs contact rates and hard hit rates are low.

That's changing the goal posts. I said he should hit better than Roden, and your response is that you perceive he runs and fields better. (BTW, FanGraphs rates Roden better than Jenkins on the bases this year, although I agree with you that Roden was disappointing in the field, especially after he was hyped last year as a possible back-up center-fielder.)

Judge had a 104 wRC+ after his first 11 games. That is not "pretty bad." Trout did start off similarly to Jenkins, but he was called up at age 19 directly from AA. (And the Angels should not be an example to follow.) Besides, one or two or three examples of someone doing well ignores the hundreds of examples of someone not doing well. Finally, I don't know how clearly to say this: I still think Jenkins can be quite good, although there should be no expectations that he will become as good as Trout or Judge. His problem is that he looks overmatched right now. People seem to incorrectly interpret every comment that "Jenkins does not look good" as "Jenkins is not good."

Not at all, but I'd like him to hit better than Alan Roden, and at least show something special, like bat speed, the ability to hit the ball hard, or control the strike zone.

This is true, but it's a cliche based on survivorship bias. It's like saying I know of a guy who became a multi-millionaire by day trading in his underwear. Even though one person did it and became one of the greatest players ever, many more also did it and have been pretty much lost to history. Also, there are other differences between Mays and Jenkins (and just about everyone else). 1. Mays' performance in AAA before his call-up was a couple of superlatives better than Jenkins'. 2. Like Jenkins, Mays hit a homer during his poor, but it was off Warren Spahn, one of the greatest pitchers in the league, instead of a position player. 3. Mays was already an incredible center-fielder and his manager may have been ahead of his time in valuing fielding. Jenkins isn't bad, but he isn't incredible. 4. It's been several decades since I read books about Mays, but if memory serves, he was hitting the ball well during his slump. He did have a rough first week, but by the middle of his second week, after some advice from the manager, he started ripping off several two hit games. Jenkins hasn't been hitting the ball well at all. We are now in the middle of his second week, so hopefully he starts ripping. 5. Mays had much better contact rates, but comparing 1951 to 2026 on this stat is unfair.

So you are going on his pedigree. I absolutely do not know everything about a player, and I still think Jenkins can be a very good player, but we can see when a player is really struggling, well beyond normal growing pains. To use your word, I also think it's "naive" to not consider that Jenkins could top out at Dylan Crews, a supposedly can't-miss player who was drafted #2 in the same draft when Jenkins was taken #5. To use your words, "baseball is hard." I'm not sure how to assess Jenkins' performance in AAA. He was outstanding the last four weeks, but he was just OK before that, and Roden, Royce, Wallner, and Sabato, among others, have all had outstanding runs at times for St. Paul this year, which means results may not be predictive. Right now, he's struggling at choosing which pitches to swing at, and when he does swing, he's not putting much into it. Those are two major changes he needs to make to be successful, and one big change at a time is hard enough, especially at the major league level. If letting him continue to flail is what the team decides is best to continue his development, then I hope for the best. It seems like a really risky strategy, however.

I'm not sold on Jenkins' skills right now, but where do you see that he has a long swing? Measures show that it's actually on the short side. Of 22 players who have hit for the Twins this year, he's tied for 9th shortest.

Fair enough. It's not so clear that the skills he demonstrated in his last four weeks in AAA were locked in, however. This is looking like a huge jump for him.

Do you mean I'm bad at evaluation because I am evaluating Jenkins based on his performance instead of his pedigree? Tell me: if Jenkins had been a sixth round pick, how would you rate his performance so far with the Twins? Also, upon what basis should we expect he will be better than Dylan Crews or Evan Carter have been the last few years? I still think Jenkins can be good, but he looks overmatched at best right now. His contact numbers, hard hit rates, and measures of other skills are all poor. On his last strikeout, his bat speed was below that of a major leaguer. And remember that his poor stats are inflated by getting a homer off a position player. If your best response is to criticize someone with whom you disagree, you should consider whether your own argument is relatively weak.