MeleMouth

A little context: the team changed what it valued after about a month or two. They started the season with their traditional priority of power with little care about defense or contact, and that switched around mid-May. Most defensively poor players saw changes around then. Wallner then went to St. Paul and remained a power-only guy, but his contact and defense remained poor and his power wasn't anything special. His xWOBA in St. Paul was .309, which is very similar to Ben Ross. Wallner should move to the bullpen.

The CBA can't change "everything." A more even playing field will improve the odds, but over time teams that make better decisions will outperform regardless of economic environment.

Theme: "Don't trust the lack of process."

And then his arm blew up.

Not something to think about now. They need to first put together a really good team before worrying about who's going to pitch multiple lefty relief innings in the playoffs.

And for failing to negotiate with Jeffers two years ago when he was cheaper. When teams let it play out, sometimes the money works out, sometimes it doesn't.

Best case outcome if they sign Bednar and Morejon would be to change 2027 from 75 wins to 79-80 wins.

The Twins will be fine with Jeffers accepting the QO. They wouldn't have offered to him if they weren't. A one-year overpay for a position of need isn't the worst thing. A bigger issue for people who want the Twins to upgrade the bullpen through free agency is that Bednar and Morejon also got QOs. The Twins should be loath to give up draft choices for signing a free agent, especially for a position as variable as reliever and could cost $15-$16M apiece per year for several years.

He's probably going to be available again sooner than later as teams claim players and then try to sneak them through waivers.

Based on mostly bringing back the same gang, except trading Larnach and Ryan for prospects and adding Drew Millas from WSN in a minor trade. Jimmy Crooks from StL could be a back-up target. This is highly unlikely to be anywhere near the Opening Day roster and I am likely to change my mind, also, so these thoughts are valid only for a short time. No large dollar free agents are being signed, but the 2027 team should approach the weak free agent market opportunistically, particularly for OF, 1B, and P. "Keep your powder dry," said Oliver Cromwell. "Wait for the opportune moment," said Captain Jack Sparrow. Large dollar free agents this year are unlikely to meaningfully change the short-term trajectory of the team, whereas they would lard up the payroll of future teams that have a higher potential with expensive, declining veterans, making it harder to add to those teams. Hopefully those future teams will have a smarter front office that can take advantage of their opportune moments. Lopez is moved to closer. If he thrives in the role, he will be traded at mid-season. Fandom and "liking" a player does not impact decisions that should be made for the betterment of the team. It's not a thrilling roster if you want "hope," but it is a roster that gives the Twins a more honest chance to have a better future. C: Victor Caratini ($7.00M) 1B: Royce Lewis ($5.10M) 2B: Kody Clemens ($3.60M) 3B: Brooks Lee ($1.00M) SS: Kaelen Culpepper ($1.00M) LF: Alan Roden ($1.00M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Walker Jenkins ($1.00M) DH: Luke Keaschall ($1.00M) 4th OF: Emmanuel Rodriguez ($1.00M) Utility: Austin Martin ($1.00M) Utility: Ryan Kreidler ($1.00M) Backup C: Drew Millas ($1M) POS: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) SP1: Mick Abel ($1.00M) SP2: Zebby Matthews ($1.00M) SP3: Dean Kremer ($6.50M) SP4: Connor Prielipp ($1.00M) SP5: Taj Bradley ($4.50M) RP: Jeff Hoffman ($7.25M) RP: Pablo Lopez ($21.50M) RP: Tommy Nance ($1.20M) RP: Marco Raya ($1M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($1.00M) RP: Travis Adams ($1.00M) RP: Andrew Morris ($1.00M) RP: Bailey Ober ($6.90M) POS: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) Payroll is 29.96% under budget

Of free agent relievers signed in 2026, Matz had the 15th highest AAV @ $7.5M (13th if you count only relievers signed to be relievers). It's up to you whether you call that "expensive" or "high priced." It's definitely less than the eight figures people are bandying about for pitchers like Bednar, Morejon, and Minter. Also, to be clear, I said "pitched in the playoffs," not "worked." In 2026, Matz had 0.0 fWAR and -0.7 bWAR. He pitched in the playoffs because the Rays brought him there, not because he was a crucial part of their success. The Rays got a lot more out of the $925,000 they paid for free agent Cam Booser (0.8 fWAR, 1.1 bWAR).

I would be happy with the trades you proposed, but why do you think the other teams, particularly PIT and ARI, would accept them? How many games do you think this team could win? Without large break-throughs from at least two of Lewis, Jenkins, Culpepper, and ERod, it seems like another 75 win team. If you think Bednar and Morejon would combine for another 5 wins, then it could an 80 win team, but if it's a 75 win team otherwise, why spend big money on relievers? Are you sending Abel to St. Paul? Why trade for Bernal and Davis?

I've posted a bullpen that kind of includes a rotation. Maybe hitters are yet to come. Have you posted a roster?

Ryan for Ramirez + is interesting, but it looks like Alcantara strikes out more than ERod, so one of them would have to go. Maybe get another prospect, such as Cade Townsend, a pitcher, instead. There are lots of possible trades for Joe Ryan. Perhaps Atlanta would trade Didier Fuentes. Tyler Stephenson is a bad defensive catcher. The Twins should get only good defensive catchers, especially if they are going to go with a younger rotation. Filling the catcher spot is going to be hard.

If they want to do this, it could be more cost-effective to take a salary dump from another team that will pay some of the contract. Good starting pitchers are always available mid-season. If they are in contention, they could get a better deal at that time.

Random review: in 2022, the Phillies signed the third and thirteenth highest AAV contracts with big name relievers to upgrade their bullpen. Between Corey Knebel ($10M) and Brad Hand ($6M), they got 0.3 fWAR. That year's #1 AAV (Braves-Kenley Jansen @ $16M) and #2 (Angels-Raisel Iglesias @ $14.5M) did pitch pretty well, although the vast majority of Iglesias' good results occurred only after he was traded to the Braves mid-season. The Angels were aggressive that year and also signed the #4 AAV, Aaron Loup, @ $8.5M. He was also a bad value, at 0.3 fWAR.

Coach Thomas was a really nice guy. At Dick Siebert's summer camp, Coach Thomas showed campers where the all-you-can-drink pop was and he was a patient and soft-spoken instructor.

"We haven’t seen many everyday catchers hit free agency recently; last year we had J.T. Realmuto, who re-signed with the Phillies for three years and $45 million, which would be a bargain price for Jeffers." https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7730027/2026/11/02/mlb-free-agent-ranking-2026-2027-tarik-skubal/

Agreed, but chances should be supported by data. That's the difference between people who make money in Vegas and those who don't.

Way too early to give up on Diaw. He was drafted as a very raw player. At a slightly older age, William Contreras was breaking into the majors, where he was a bad defensive catcher for a couple of years, even though Contreras had much more experience at catching. What we should be monitoring isn't Diaw, but the Twins program for catcher development. It was supposed to be good in the early Falvey years, but other teams poached all of the initial development coaches. Diaw is only going to be as good as his instruction, and a similar limit will apply to Lackey, Tinney, and Tait.

You need to be careful about overvaluing walks and OBP in the low minors. Sure, Jimenez got a lot of walks, but he made contact in A+ at the same rate as ERod in AAA while actually having a higher swinging strike rate. In the AFL, he has 10 K's in 16 AB's. Those are big warning signs that he could really struggle as he faces better pitchers. As a catcher, the offensive bar is much lower, so it doesn't rule him out, but it greatly lowers room for error. In addition to greatly improving his contact, he'll also need to greatly improve his defense while maintaining his offensive power in order to be considered a possibility to be a major league catcher.

What-ifs should include Bob Allison, Jimmie Hall, and John Castino. Allison was a Rookie of the Year and three-time All-Star whose career was shortened and damaged by an undiagnosed neurological disease, Ataxia. He had successful years into his 30's, but hindsight asks wonders what he could have been if he had had better health. Hall was third in voting for Rookie of the Year and a two-time All-Star whose performance against lefties cratered after he was beaned in the face, with his productive career basically ending before he turned 30. Castino was also Rookie of the Year and had a few years of being a fan favorite despite terrible back pain, but saw his career ended after a disk fusion in his sixth year, at age 29.

OK.

Maybe Trevor Larnach could get an OK catcher in exchange.

It's harder when you don't look beyond the next month or you're frequently reacting to the owner's latest feelings.