MeleMouth

Pitchers improve on various timelines. Zack Wheeler has more than 45 fWAR, but he didn't fully establish himself until he was 28. (And before you say Wheeler's different because his issue was injuries, (1) note that he had control problems before he was injured, and (2) ask yourself if you would have posted a complaint about 27 year-old, 0.2 fWAR Zack Wheeler needing to go to the bullpen because he hadn't shown he could handle being a starter.) Rojas has two options left. 2027 isn't "pivotal" for him, nor is his development in 2027 "pivotal" for the Twins, because they have several other options for the rotation.

It's an organizational effort, but treating the "pitching coach" as a mechanic and not as an important shaper of organizational strategy and processes would be a surprise to coaches like Carl Willis, Kent Schrom, and Wes Johnson, and it would be huge surprise and disappointment if the Twins aren't asking Reith to bring some of Tampa's strategies and systems to Minnesota.

The topic being discussed is whether there is a timing imbalance between the Twins' pitching and hitting prospects. Similar risks of injury or failure to reach a ceiling apply to the top position player prospects, such as Jenkins and Culpepper.

In 2028, hopefully, Abel and Prielipp will be in their third years in the big leagues and hitting their primes. Bradley will have settled into being a solid above-average pitcher, and at least one of Rojas and Matthews will have become at least a solid #4. 2028 would also be a reasonable year to expect Jenkins, Lackey, etc. to start becoming above-average players. I agree that the organization needs more talent, especially high-end talent, but I don't see the same timing imbalance.

So you're saying when they bring in a new pitching coach from a team that has a better system for developing pitchers they should not have him change their system for developing pitchers? If you bring in someone you think is great but ask him to do it the way you've always done it, he'll be no better than the last guy.

The wish to extend Lopez gets said a lot, because he seems like a good person and, when healthy, he's been a very good pitcher. However, he's going to need approximately a 4.5 fWAR season this year for the value he's produced under his 4-year deal from 2024-27 to equal the amount he's been paid. He's coming off his second TJ surgery. Gerrit Cole, a better pitcher, just produced 2.1 fWAR in his first year after his first TJ, and Spencer Strider, also a better pitcher, had 1.0 fWAR in his first season after his second TJ, before tailing off to 0.1 fWAR in his second year back and being talked about by Atlanta management as possibly losing his spot in the rotation for next year. Shane Bieber, also a better pitcher, has produced a total of 0.4 fWAR in the two years since returning from his TJ. Perhaps the best recent return from TJ was Jacob DeGrom's 3.4 fWAR in the first year back after his second TJ, but DeGrom also is a superior pitcher - Lopez exceeded 3.4 fWAR only once in his career . Perhaps Pablo can produce better than Cole, Bieber, Strider, or DeGrom did in their first years after returning from TJ, but a gambler would need long odds to take that bet. It's almost impossible that he'll come anywhere near the approximately 4.5 fWAR needed to make his current contract breakeven for the Twins. Therefore, despite how awesome he's been, without knowing a lot more about his recovery, it would be unwise for the Twins to enter into another multi-year contract with Pablo Lopez, particularly at anywhere near the $21.75 million they're going to pay him in 2027. P.S. A salary cap might really hit salaries for pitchers, because of the risk from tying up a large percentage of allowable payroll in a player who could spend a lot of time on the IL or lose effectiveness quickly.

Yes, they don't want to go into 2028 with just these five pitchers as they are today, but that doesn't mean that issue needs to be solved in the next 12 months. Get back to us in the winter of 2027-28, after we've seen how these 5 guys are doing, how pitchers in the minors are progressing, and who's available in free agency and by trade. Also, it seems impossible to say today that these five guys would be a bottom 10 rotation in 2028. Many teams have no or few starters today who will be under control then. For example, all of Tampa's current starters will be gone. On the other hand, for $57 million, Toronto can count on Dylan Cease and Jose Berrios, plus for a few million more they will have Yesavage, Francis and Arrighetti. It's hard to sit here today and project that the Twins five, who were arguably worse in 2026, will still be worse in 2028.

The Twins should not trade one of their best trade chips for a guy whose ceiling is 3 WAR, just had a bad year by underlying metrics, and is probably already on the downswing of his career.

You don't know Bo.

None of the four teams in the 2026 ALCS or NLCS had all of their current starters in line two years ago. In fact, a large percentage of their starters were acquired within the past 3 to 15 months and at least three of the best other pitchers, Misiorowski, Henderson, and Messick, had a lot of doubt about them at this time in 2024. Worrying about the 2028 rotation at this time is useless anxiety, especially when you have five good internal candidates who have pitched in the majors already, plus several other candidates in the lower minors, and have many larger problems to solve before being a truly competitive team.

Another old saying. . . the fish rots from the head. I really hope the front office isn't sitting around thinking, "We got all these guys and gave them a bunch of chances, why do they keep letting us down?"

This is a made-up issue, but congrats on using a good imagination to keep coming up with content. The Twins already have five potentially decent starters for 2028 without doing anything. If the team is good in 2028, they can pick up an ace in the winter or summer trade market and move everybody back. Six of the ten pitchers with the most fWAR in the 21st Century and five of the top 10 since 2017 were mid-season trade rentals, including future Hall of Famers Scherzer and Greinke twice. Also, there are usually affordable starters available in free agency, some of whom end up providing 3 or more WAR. Pitchers are always subject to unforeseen injury, and the odds that any particular pitcher will get injured go up - sometimes a lot - as time goes on. Making any kind of trade now to buttress a pitching staff 18 months from now would be one of the biggest team-building mistakes possible. Similarly, signing a long-term contract with any of the current pitchers would have a good chance of working out as poorly as the long-term contract with Pablo Lopez has.

What's your evidence that Lee has peaked?

Tampa has a better pitcher development system, which a AAA coach would have been deeply involved in. In fact, his success is probably more due to the system than Tampa's success is due to him. I would hope the Twins would have him redesign their whole pitching development system. Not firing someone doesn't mean the team doesn't want to improve.

Picking Jenkins and Lackey has nothing to do with strategy. They were, respectively, the fifth and third overall choices in drafts that had five and three top prospects. If they really prioritized defense, they would have picked Jacob Wilson instead of Jenkins. Culpepper and Houston could have been BPA, but a bunch of 2d and 3d rounders in recent years are weak on defense and the organization as a whole has downplayed defense until the second half of this year. The 2026 Twins started with fielders who ranged from well below average to terrible at 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, LF, and RF, and their main C was bottom quartile. Even the once-great CF is now average at best. Changing to prioritize defense in the middle of the year wasn't part of a strategic plan, but instead was necessitated by widespread failure. On an organizational basis, it's a reach to say they changed their strategy based on two first round picks in four years.

He was incredibly lucky in July. 8.7 K/9 vs. 6.1 BB/9 is really bad, but his month was saved by unsustainable luck in a small sample of hard hit and barrel rates, along with a season high in LOB rate, a career low in FB rate, and a rare 0.0% of FBs turning into HRs. His xFIP and xERA were about 3 runs worse than his ERA. These things balance out over time. Interestingly regarding Gomez, his overall 5.79 ERA for the second half is very close to his 5.82 xERA for this period. So, yes, his record was good in July, but warning lights were going off for a bunch of things under the hood.

Prielipp had a very good year for a rookie who did not have many minor league innings because of injuries. There is also good reason to think he will be better in the future, especially if he can get more movement on his fastball.

I hope to be wrong, but Gomez looked like the clock struck midnight around June 30 and he turned back into a pumpkin.

Changed their strategy four years ago, huh? Evidence is spotty. In the last four drafts, they've still been using a lot of high picks on power over contact hitters, many without a plus defensive home. In 2023 they didn't need a strategy in the first round, because they took Jenkins, and they also took Keaschall who has excellent contact (although poor defense) in the second, but they also drafted Winokur (OK power, poor contact, maybe some defensive hope) in the third round. In 2024, Culpepper was probably a good pick, although he has contact and defense yellow flags, and they also took Debarge (OK contact, sub-OK hit tool, OK power, no plus defensive home) in the first round and Amick (power, no contact, poor defense) in the second. Diaw in the third is a project. He appears to have very good contact and may become a very good defensive player. In 2025, Houston has great defense (!) with what looks like good contact, but they then took Young in the second. He's like Joey Gallo, except with less power and with worse defense and even worse contact. Additionally, their prize trade acquisition among position players was Tait, a catcher who has power, but poor defensive skills and bad contact. In 2026 Lackey was an obvs first pick, so no strategy applied, but Tinney (whom I like) in round 2 is again a classic power over contact hitter without a defensive home. Of the players they actually selected in the past four years, not counting the automatic choices of Jenkins and Lackey, only Houston is close to being a likely good contact, good defense player, with hopes for Diaw and Culpepper, and perhaps dreams on Keachall's defense. Further, strategy applies to development as well as player selection, and there is little evidence that they are helping players improve their contact skills. In 2026, Cedar Rapids and Wichita had terrible strikeout records, even with Houston and Diaw, so if they changed their overall strategy four years ago, better contact would have shown up at those levels by now.

These are good points, except for thinking he's "ruined his legs." Lewis has played most of the past two years and this year looked like he regained much of his athletic ability, so his injuries do not appear to be the limiting factors they once were. Note that this year he set a career high in steals and had his best analytics scores for speed and baserunning. Also, when people are starting to write him off, it's hard to say that it's too early for a post-mortem, much less a pre-mortem, which is basically asking "if he fails, what would be the cause(s)?" It's much more valuable to figure out why something or somebody might fail before it happens, so you can prevent it, than to do it after the fact.

There are probably no players who might get a qualifying offer from another team that the Twins would be interested in signing, so you could greatly shorten that part if you just listed the possible players.

The case for Bell would start with his being 1st in producing runs above average and an above-average clubhouse guy. However, his wRC+ and WPA were both mediocre.

To be clear: Royce Lewis bears plenty of responsibility for his failures, but if he fails with the Twins the ultimate responsibility will be with the Twins. The Twins have failed Royce Lewis much more than Royce Lewis has failed the Twins.

The Twins have been locked into a failing strategy of prioritizing power over defense and strikeouts. They are probably now seeing the error of that strategy and are going to prioritize contact skills and defense. Unfortunately, they are late to that party, as shown by the teams playing in the ALCS and NLCS. Knowing the Twins, their late pivot to the styles currently being played by TBR/CLE/MIL will happen right before those teams find another competitive advantage for the Twins to be late to. Who knows, maybe the next competitive advantage will be to prioritize power over contact.

It's no coincidence that Bauers has played for all three of the Rays, Guardians, and Brewers, nor that he put it together this year. He's exactly the type of player that all three of them have done well with over the years - skilled, but needing some adjustments to his mental and physical approaches. My guess is that the Brewers or Rays or even the Dodgers would love to add Royce Lewis at a discount to his ability. I don't care for how he conducts himself, but he's also exactly the kind of player that they turn into much better players. Some team is going to get Royce to take the outside pitch to right field and to have a more humble and honest self-dialogue; it would be great if it could be the Twins.