MeleMouth

One game is definitely not a trend, but tonight's loss to the Padres did not change my mind that the keys to success for the rest of the season will be (1) the bullpen, (2) hitting by Jeffers, Larnach, Clemens, Keaschall, and Bell, and (3) a starter being adequate or better; and that success should not depend much on either getting something from Buxton or seeing Lewis continue his recent hot streak. Unfortunately, although the hitting was fine and the starter was quite good (and neither Buxton nor Lewis did anything of value), tonight the bullpen failed to lock it down.

Lewis was very good in June, mediocre in July, and is even better so far in August. You are absolutely correct that continued good fortune for Royce Lewis would definitely help the Twins succeed. It would be great if it does, but relying on his success to continue is a riskier factor for success than the others I described. Here are reasons to be cautious. First, you can't just look at results and project them out. With Lewis there are underlying indicators that we shouldn't expect a continuation of his hot streak. Among other things, he's getting the vast majority of his results from inside pitches, and, in August, unsustainable luck on balls in play, well exceeding anything Rod Carew ever did over a season, so regression here is about as sure a bet as you can get. Even with this good fortune, however, his isolated power, even in his en fuego August, would be only about 40th percentile among qualified hitters if he could do that all year. Contrast it to his ISO during his golden days of August/September 2023, which was more than .100 higher, with much more normal luck on balls hit into play not turning into outs. August 2026 Lewis is achieving results with a lot more luck and lot less power. If his all-time high luck on balls hit into play regresses, his ISO will sink lower. Also, unless he can do better with outside pitches, his success will continue only as long as the league doesn't change how it pitches him. Even in his good August, his rate of chasing well exceeds league average, while his rate of contact when chasing is well below league average. If I know this, it's probable that the whole league knows it and will adjust. Further, Royce has been a source of disappointment several times over the last few years, so unless you can point to something in him that has positively and permanently changed, a downturn would be reasonable to expect. Finally, if a downturn does occur, I'm not sold that someone who tends to respond to challenges by reminding himself how awesome he is and saying things like "I don't do slumps" has what it takes to promptly face up to his problems and make adjustments.

The top two factors can't be health and good performance by two guys who haven't been healthy or performing well, and the third top factor can't be continued good performance by an odd dude who's just starting to hit well. You have to assume the first two guys will continue to be spotty and the third dude, who's getting away with poor plate coverage, will see his performance return back closer to what it has been. Here are suggested alternate factors - just to make the playoffs. 1. Lock-down bullpen. The team's biggest work this year has been to improve the bullpen. If this team is going to sneak into the playoffs, it's because they were able to get out to a lead in enough games and the bullpen locks the door. 2. Good hitting by Jeffers, Larnach, Clemens, Keaschall, and Bell. Jeffers, Larnach and Clemens are going through rough patches, but you can find positives in their data. If they can resume hitting how they were through mid-July, that would help a lot. Similarly, if Keaschall can maintain his new gear or even something a little below, and Bell could be similar, that could provide additional runs. 3. Three or four starters to be adequate or better. The Twins' opponents from here out have a below .500 strength of schedule. The Twins don't need the Dodgers rotation to beat them. A decent staff should give them a good chance. Who it's going to be is the challenge. Bradley looks pretty good, but Ober, Prielipp, and Matthews all look like #5 starters at best right now. Kremer has put up good results since the trade, but underlying data is a little scarier. Here's where Ryan's return could help, because even if he doesn't return to his All-Star level, mere adequacy could do the trick. 4. Of course, any gains from Buxton and something from Lewis approaching his current streak would help, but a plan based on health for Buxton and continuing a hot streak by Lewis is really a plan based on hope instead of strategy.

Important points. Bell has been a decent addition and the team has outperformed, but no, this team is not going to the World Series (all predictions guaranteed or your money back), and in pursuit of seeking to squeak into a wild card series or win a weak division with a sub-.500 record they lost opportunities to strengthen future teams that could have better chances to go to the World Series.

Since German Marquez and Chris Vallimont are starting their games tonight, we are safe to expect that Nelson Cruz and the rest of the Bomba Squad will rake in theirs and Taylor Rogers will come in to close it out.

As noted by the OP, Bell is one of the main additions to the team this year, to which I would add it is a team that is outperforming expectations and has a better tone than last year's team, even before the fire sale. I'm glad you agree that Bell is a quality person or at least a good teammate (we have almost no idea what he does in his private life). When something like a team's tone is better, the team is performing better, and a new member of the team is a good and supportive teammate, it can't be proven that his conduct made the difference, but circumstantial and observational evidence suggests that he may be making a positive effect. My own career and athletic experience gave me many examples. I'm not aware of any math connecting culture or quality of a person or even a locker room to success. I also, however, would not mock the concept, unless "chemistry" or culture is used to explain a series of decisions that are otherwise suboptimal, nor do I feel qualified to make rules for others of what "there needs to be" regarding their opinions, with the possible exception that opinions should not be based on clear factual errors. Following your logic, a team would never change its manager because it wanted a new tone in the dugout, because they wouldn't be able to prove it makes any difference. Nor would it ever seek someone to provide veteran leadership, such as Andy MacPhail did when he traded for Don Baylor and Terry Ryan said he was doing when he brought back Torii Hunter. You're right that fans don't know as much as MacPhail or Ryan about the locker room or players, but fans have a right to their opinions on the issue.

Glad you'll defer. Deferring to other posters instead of making personal attacks is a nice way to behave.

I like Josh Bell and think the article missed another of his contributions this year, because he has been an outstanding locker room guy, kind of a 1B to Shelton's 1A in terms of supporting the other players. However, we need to be careful not to overstate his hitting value. He currently has a 110 wRC+. Among 137 qualified hitters, this places him in a tie for 68th, which is the median among qualified hitters. Now, that isn't bad, but it's not incredible, either. The potential good news is that Bell has been a much better hitter in the second half of the last three years, including being practically elite in 2024 and excellent in 2025, with his Statcast data being elite in 2025. Although he's actually not hitting the ball as hard this year, that pattern seems to be repeating, so we can hope that it continues.

In case you were wondering, Randy Dobnak has 7 starts and 2 wins this year. You know who the two wins were against.

"A 20-year-old at AAA with an OPS of .800 is very exciting, a top 10 global prospect. A 20-year-old at AAA with nearly a .900 OPS is a guy to consider calling up." This article lays out the pros and cons well and ably contrasts it to Culpepper's promotion, but Jenkins turned 21 in February, before the season started.

He looks like an excellent athlete with somewhat raw skills and has already shown some mental skills. It's too early to be too positive or negative, but there are reasons for optimism. The biggest caution is that strike zone control has been a concern since the Twins got him, not just since he was promoted, and now that he's in the majors he needs to improve quickly.

Hilarious! And Tristan Gray hit two bombs yesterday, so there's that.

To exhaust the comparisons of Morneau's and Jenkins' situations, here are two final facts. 1. Dougie was traded on July 31, 2004, about 7-1/2 months BEFORE Jenkins was born. 2. That's more of an amusing fact, but it's relevant because a comparison between the situations should apply data that would have been applicable to the decision-makers of each era. We shouldn't compare OPS to OPS, because decision in 2004 usually didn't consider OPS. What they did consider was slugging. And in 2004, Morneau was slugging .615 in AAA, while Dougie was slugging .363 in Minnesota. It was quite hard for Twins management at the time to rationalize keeping Morneau and his extremely rare slugging on the farm while Dougie was producing like a 1970s bat control middle infielder. Nuf said.

There may have been issues particular to Mientkiewicz, also. It sounded like he wasn't, shall we say, very "welcoming" to young Mourneau. To move him out of the locker room, the Twins accepted an OK A ball pitcher in return. To get back to the topic at hand, Dougie wasn't nearly as valuable as the players Jenkins would replace.

Among reasons not to promote Jenkins now, this is an important, less-discussed issue. The Twins have basically been snake-bit with the health of their top young players when they come up to the majors. From Joe Mauer to Byron Buxton to Alex Kirilloff to Royce Lewis, they have a bad streak of injuries. Because of the possible lockout next year, this risk is even bigger, because the last thing anyone would want is Walker Jenkins to become injured soon after coming to the majors, go into a lockout, and have to rehab on his own and not play baseball next year. Certainly, that series of facts may not come to pass, but they shouldn't be hand-waved away as not being risks for a team with the injury history of the Twins and a player with the injury history of Jenkins. I might feel differently if we thought this team was one player away from being a force in the playoffs and we were more certain that Jenkins would come up and rake right away, but even with Jenkins the odds the team will make the playoffs will still be well under 50% and the odds the team will do well in the playoffs are much lower, and Jenkins has tended to start slow and need an adjustment period each time he went to a new level.

"Much like Lackey, Tinney has been extremely selective. His swing rate is even lower than Lackey’s, at 30.9%. You could argue that’s too low, especially considering that he’s swinging at fewer than half of the pitches he’s seeing in the strike zone. It seems like both catchers could help themselves by being a little more aggressive on pitches in the zone. That’s obviously easier said than done when opposing pitchers aren’t giving them many pitches to hit, but as they continue to develop and get more professional at-bats under their belts, I’d expect that to change." Tinney's low swing rate in A ball isn't as important as his contact rate, which unfortunately is also low. As players move up in the minors, the ability to wait out bad pitches matters much less than their ability to make contact. Tinney isn't at a find-another-career contact rate in the mid-fifties like Quentin Young, but a sub-70% contact rate of 67.4% in A ball is ominous. For comparison with two rookies who have struggled with strikeouts, Colson Montgomery was at 76.8% in his first taste of A ball and Carson Williams was at 66.3%, almost the same as Tinney, but despite having exemplary defense and playing behind someone who brings very little offense, he hasn't been able to stick in the majors. The Twins have had a weakness for years of thinking they could draft poor fielding power hitters with holes in their swings and convert them into major league hitters. It can happen, as evidenced by Kyle Schwarber (63.6%) and Hunter Goodman (68.9%), but it's rare. Most other power hitters with lots of strikeouts, such as James Wood (78.5%), Spencer Torkelson (74.4% in A+), and Nick Kurtz (83.1%), had much higher contact rates in the lower minors. A couple more for the fun of it: George Lombard, Jr. - 75.4%, Matt Wallner - 66.4%, and Keoni Cavaco - 64.0% (career high).

I'm less concerned about the decision about whether or not to call up Jenkins - although I'm fine with keeping him in AAA - than I am pleased with what seems like an increased level of candor from Twins management. Tom Pohlad seems more candid than Joe, Zoll seems more candid than Falvey, and Shelton is more candid than Baldelli. Previously, it seemed like everyone spoke through cliches and generalities, and you could add Dave St. Peter as the ultimate in saying ambiguous nothings, but now it seems like we're more getting more direct answers to questions. Nobody is ever going to make decisions that are popular and that I always agree with, but if someone is straight with me I can handle it. Certainly, a capable Jenkins would improve the Twins - if and when he's ready - but I suggest to you that candor by management will be a bigger factor in long term success for the team. Further, I suggest that fans will be more likely to stick with the team through tough times if they feel like management is being honest with them.

Not right now, but how about Goryl Of My Dreams?

He thought it would be the whole shooting match.

I struggle to remember a year when the Twins picked up three players at the deadline who contributed at least a little. Most years it seemed they picked up zero players who contributed and some years they picked up players who actually made things worse or brought their own mini-crises with them. In 1987, they got Schatzeder, Baylor, Niekro, and Carlton, and Baylor, and Baylor and Schatzeder contributed in the postseason, but Niekro and Carlton were bad innings-eaters at best. I think this year's deals were wrong for the organization, but am also glad that they are working instead of not working.

This is a well-written article that makes interesting points and supports them with data. Clemens' drop-off is something to pay attention to. BUT - and it's a big but - it is based on relatively small sample size and could also be an example why we shouldn't get either too high or too low based on short-term results. That said, one thing noted by the author was his recent drop in exit velocity and hard hit rates. Again, it could be a small sample size error - his rates in July were fine - but it is also worth watching. Sometimes, players just get tired in August. As an anecdote, August was also Clemens' least powerful in 2025.

Mendez could have brought back a 40-45 pitching prospect. For Larnach, the Twins were of course aiming to get someone who is a good reliever right now, which is a much higher target.

Statements of fact, particularly verifiable ones, are unfashionable these days.

You could be right. I am still thinking (hoping?) that the change happened too late in the offseason for any changes to be material and that bigger changes will happen next year. My bigger concern - and maybe this is similar to your comment about things still being about the same - about the Gray and Jackson moves, along with the trades at the deadline, is that the team is still trying to be two things at once - competitive and rebuilding - which splits their resources in a way that makes it hard to be successful at either.

Twins should have traded Mendez at the deadline for a decent pitching prospect. Twins 40-man has 4.5 left-handed corner outfielders who are either bad or mediocre at fielding: Larnach, Wallner, Roden, and Mendez, with Clemens as a PT, plus ERod with Jenkins to follow. They should have converted at least one into pitching and Mendez was the best combo of youth, hitting well, and being expendable. Mendez was also part of a past regime. Future roster construction should prioritize fielding higher.