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MeleMouth

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Everything posted by MeleMouth

  1. MeleMouth
    As the theme of the article states, Buxton has been a very good player and his current contract has proven to be a great value. But signing a regularly-injured guy going who is into major hip surgery to an extension two years before from the end of his contract at $20 million a year for his ages 35-38? Sorry for direct criticism, but that is a ridiculous clickbait idea. Circle back in July 2028 to see how he's doing and what he wants.
  2. MeleMouth
    When they decided not to bring back Sonny Gray and not to add anyone better than Trevor Richards to a competitive team, they were admitting that, as structured, they weren't going to be competitive with the best teams. At that point, they should have gone full steam ahead for a different structure and traded Ryan, Lopez, and anyone else who would bring back good future assets (not Outmans or deep minors pitchers with a less than 5% chance to ever have 1.0 WAR), instead of listing at sea the last few years. If they had done that, they could have been very good next year.
  3. MeleMouth
    Reasonable thoughts. In particular, this is definitely a 70-80 win team by talent (before losing Jeffers and assuming Buxton comes back healthy) and they need to raise the talent level to where Clemens is not the #3 hitter and they do more than play "competitive baseball," a metaphor for not being good enough to win and not being bad enough to get a large infusion of talent for the future. I'd add only that Baseball Savant ranks Clemens higher than Lewis in Fielding Run Value at 1B, although neither rates very high. Because Houston is on his way (fingers crossed), the Twins should keep Clemens at 2B, instead of signing or trading for someone to hold the job on a long-term basis, and try to upgrade elsewhere.
  4. MeleMouth
    Buxton's contract goes through 2028. I've never heard of a team telling a player who was their first-half MVP before getting injured that they weren't going to sign him again a year and a half in advance of the end of his current contract. Let's see how next year goes for him, and perhaps even the first half of 2028. One other thought: this team wouldn't have been in position to have a disappointing second half if not for Buxton's great first half.
  5. MeleMouth
    July - August - September - [Year] wRC+: Lewis - 99-93-85-[92] Larnach - 135-64-132-[119] Clemens - 118-86-185-[114] Clemens is also a more valuable defender. Someone else posted a chart showing Clemens as second in WPA. The numbers don't support your constant criticism of Clemens. I guess you could say Lewis was the most consistent, but being consistently sub-100 isn't good. (I'm still waiting to hear that he's been playing injured.)
  6. MeleMouth
    You can have it, gratis.
  7. MeleMouth
    I am learning nothing about baseball from these exchanges.
  8. MeleMouth
    TBH, there's more possible benefit from losing than from winning.
  9. MeleMouth
    I hadn't thought about it, but that isn't a bad idea.
  10. MeleMouth
    Maybe Scott Boras will want to engineer a change of scenery trade for Lewis.
  11. MeleMouth
    Ump's got to toss a Cleveland pitcher after three HBPs in four innings.
  12. MeleMouth
    A little break might be good for him.
  13. MeleMouth
    Since July 1, Royce's wRC+ is 94. All those "Royce is back!" thoughts in June have dissipated. His hard hit rate during that time is 39.6, lower than his full-year, including his bad start. Maybe he's got another injury. We all know the talent is there, but . . .
  14. MeleMouth
    The first big issue is his rehab. The first 6-8 weeks (depending on severity of injury) of rehab can be critical, and they probably couldn't have waited much longer before the end of an 8-week rehab period came after the beginning of the lockout. As far as resuming baseball activities, his availability next year would definitely be better if he had surgery two months earlier, but maybe they're expecting dates to slide, making it less important.
  15. MeleMouth
    Depends how you define "top end." Top 20? Probably not. Top 40? Maybe. Top 60? Yeah, probably, especially if you don't count guys on the IL.
  16. MeleMouth
    The effects of waiting were (1) risking further injury; (2) pushing back return to full capability after rehab for two months; and (3) maintaining a self-image of "we're battlers who will do anything if there's a chance to make the playoffs."
  17. MeleMouth
    And in other surprising news, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead.
  18. MeleMouth
    Yeah, I guess none of Falvey, Zoll, Baldelli, Shelton, Pohlad, or Pohlad are boomers. Correa wasn't a boomer, either, but it seemed like he was willing to give hard truths to Royce. I don't think that more assertive coaching is generally a good thing, and that style could be one reason Billy Martin rarely held a job for long, but you need all styles for the range of personalities on a team, and Royce in particular needs someone who can break down his "I'm so awesome" unwillingness to change.
  19. MeleMouth
    There is a third factor, also. Culpepper has the job right now and, just like Houston, his development is not finished. Houston won't have to beat out the Culpepper of today; he'll have to be better than the Culpepper of tomorrow. If Culpepper becomes a plus defensive shortstop with a good bat, there will be good reasons not to change him from his position, unless Houston becomes a superlative defensive shortstop with at least an adequate bat.
  20. MeleMouth
    Maybe the hope(?) for fans would be for the Twins to lose a few more so they don't feel any need to continue playing Bell and Larnach.
  21. MeleMouth
    It would be a big mistake to take Mendez over ERod. Mendez doesn't hit the ball hard or field well. He would end up being a left-handed Austin Martin, but without speed and with worse defense. I'm not big on AAA stats, but his 88 wRC+ with a .385 SLG over the last two months requires some explaining before he should be taken seriously as a prospect. Sometimes it seems like the Twins prioritize more highly the guys they traded for, as if management is somehow more invested in that player. IMO what the Twins should have done with Mendez is, like Wallner, trade him at the deadline for an interesting lower level pitching prospect.
  22. MeleMouth
    Clearly not all of them. :)
  23. MeleMouth
    This thought may be a misconception. Good stats at AAA against lesser pitchers don't mean as much anymore. What is much more important is quality and frequency of contact. The data we have about Wallner's quality of contact in AAA is that he's OK, but not great, but Wallner's frequency of contact in AAA remains sub-standard, even though his raw skills allow him to frequently go yard off lower quality pitches. Also, and this is me projecting, but I'm hopeful that the Twins' reluctance to bring Wallner back is partly due to their deciding not to roster bad fielders any more. So net-net, despite his good HR and SLG stats, what the Twins could see with Wallner is decent but not great quality of contact, poor strike zone control, and possibly even worse defense. Previously, the Twins were good with that profile, but now it actually could be a good sign that they are backing away from it. Wallner should have been traded at the deadline for a Class A pitching prospect, kind of like how the Twins traded Julien, or be converted to pitching.
  24. MeleMouth
    I am not a Lewis fan, having never liked playing or working with someone who carries himself like he's the best, but then regularly failing to do things that smart players and team guys do and not performing anywhere near as well as his talent suggests he should or the big shot way he presents himself. However . . . If they let Royce go, there is no clear answer on the roster to replace him with; and He's still very talented and not costly. If they replace Shelton or anyone on their coaching staff, it could benefit everyone to get an old school coach who will give Royce tough love and hard messages instead of the constant boomer parent affirmation and glass half full excuses he's used to. It would be kind of like how, in the movie Moneyball, the Billy Beane character gave the David Justice character a hard dose of reality to take him down a peg or three.
  25. MeleMouth
    That's 9 pitchers who have started in the MLB, but only three or four have proven they are or still are MLB caliber starting pitchers, and one of them is coming back from his second TJ.
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