MeleMouth

The guy who's first in OPS among qualified hitters on the team should not be getting so much scorn.

If fans really want to influence things to get a quicker settlement, particularly if they are pro-player, they should start boycotting all of the games immediately, including the playoffs. Player salaries are guaranteed, so they won't lose any income, but owners would take a big hit.

That's why I said the "main problem" with Lewis is . . . That said, I could live with his "I'm Mr. Wonderful" persona if he hit like a star.

The main problem with Royce isn't that he has bad skills; he in fact seems gifted. The main problem with Royce is that bad pitchers and good pitchers can get him out by pitching to his weaknesses, such as outside, and he refuses to adjust.

"Don't give me data that conflicts with my beliefs."

I have evidence; you have claims and suppositions. Look it up: exit velocity and maximum exit velocity (Jenkins is below all qualified hitters other than Kwan and Arraez) stabilize pretty fast, although, yes, probably at least twice as many PAs will be required. Certainly, we can hope that the game slows down for Jenkins and there are many reasons to think it will, but - generalized claims aside - he's struggling now.

This is a new one - a guy in his first full year of playing who's hitting .300 with a 133 wRC+ in AA will be a "bust" if he doesn't make the majors next year before he's even eligible for the Rule V draft. Also, 11 first round picks from 2024 who played college ball haven't debuted in the majors yet, including two of the top ten choices, and only four second-round picks and only one third-round pick total have debuted.

Another criticism without evidence. What is the point? It's clearly not that Jenkins is going to help the team make the playoffs, which was the point just a week or two ago. Or is it that his statistics would be better if we just assumed K's were actually doubles?

Criticism without evidence is pretty lame. Since you think you know so much about "reliever market value," why don't you tell us how many teams pay $7.25 million to a 7th inning guy? Then, tell us how many of those deals are good. Only 31 relievers total (including Minter and Hoffman) make as much as $7.25 million.

The Twins will pay Hoffman about $7.25 million next year. That's a much higher salary than the Twins should pay for a 7th inning reliever.

I used to work with a guy who played for Jacques Lemaire, the Hall of Famer who was the first coach of the Wild. Lemaire emphasized the importance that his players "work hard" AND "work smart." Just working hard on its own doesn't mean much, but apparently we are supposed to be enthused by it, even though we have seen little evidence of "work smart" from the Twins. Instead, nearly all moves seem to be based on a strategic window that looks at most two weeks into the past and one week into the future. Working hard without working smart is just thrashing without a plan, which rarely leads to success. The sum total of all of the evidence of "working hard" contained in this article appears to be a year in which the Twins chose to work hard to *achieve* a record projected to be 77-85, while also sacrificing opportunities for future teams to succeed. Yet, despite the fact that this year was mediocre and raised the chances that future years also will be mediocre, we continue to get blue sky spin about how great everything is just about to become. (Just to note: since Falvey took over, the Twins have one of the worst playoff records in MLB, even though they benefit from playing in the AL Central, which makes it easier to make the playoffs. Their record is even worse if you go back to the opening of Target Field in 2010 or the resumption of baseball after the last work stoppage in 1994.) Personally, I'd rather see the team give a clear plan that includes plenty of losing, instead of seeing a team without a clear plan that repeatedly claims that success is just over the next hill, as long as we stay optimistic about a frequently changing handful of anecdotal dreams.

A magical conversion of K's into doubles would be great, but Jenkins is currently making contact with the ball only about as often as Jake Berger, while hitting the ball so softly that his exit velocities are close to Steven Kwan's, which means that the conversion could be pretty far away, because to get more doubles he needs to hit more balls and he needs to hit them much harder. For further comparison, Austin Martin has rarely appeared to be an offensive force, but even he, during his first month in the majors, had exit velocities appr. 4 MPH higher than Jenkins and contact rates about 17.5 basis points higher. This year, Max Clark, perhaps the player most often compared to Jenkins, has numbers very similar to Martin's debut month, which were, again, much higher than Jenkins's. Culpepper has higher exit velocities and contact rates. The much-scorned Alan Roden had much higher numbers this year, also. Absolutely, Jenkins is 21 and there is every reason to think he's going to become much better. Maybe these growing pains are exactly what should happen and he will work through them, but for now they suggest he is overmatched in the majors.

FanGraphs rates Diaw's speed at 50, which is slower than many top CF prospects, but other CF prospects in their top 100 are also rated at 50, including Walker Jenkins. It's not a question of cherry-picking stats or saying whether he's good at stealing. He's a raw talent who is supposed to be improving, which he is. Further, the main point is that stolen base totals, particularly for raw players in the minors, is an unreliable metric for assessing a player's speed. Lou Brock would often say that he wasn't the fastest player on his team. If a player isn't trying to steal, that means at least as much that he doesn't feel confident in his skills other than speed, including the abilities to get a jump and not get picked off. It may also mean that the coaches don't want him to. It's all pretty moot for now, because he's primarily focused on being a catcher. Diaw was drafted as a raw prospect and this is the first year he's been able to play most of the season. He may become great or he may not be any good, but the paint's still really wet. However, if you need to conclude now that he's too slow to play CF, have at it.

The arguments were the opposite - that failing to promote Jenkins hurt the team's chances to make the playoffs. Now, if we want to say he needs an adjustment period, that's fine, and in fact I agree. I would do the same for ERod. It's just funny that two weeks ago the arguments for promoting him were to help the team make the playoffs and now the goal posts are changing.

"Walker Jenkins sure has a lot more swing-and-miss in his game than anticipated. It probably is too soon to bench him, but it sure would be nice if he could make some good contact ahead in the count." This was also his issue when he first got to AAA last year. The thought that he could come up to the majors and immediately be a star without an adjustment period was always based on hope and not reality. This doesn't mean that he's bad, but it does suggest that keeping him in AAA would have been a good idea.

In AA this year, he has 11 SB's against 2 CS's. His earlier stats were not as good, but those could be due more to inexperience than lack of speed. I mean, maybe he truly isn't that fast, but we might not be able to read much about his speed from his caught stealing numbers.

In the Texas League this year, 10 of the top 60 hitters in terms of highest percentage of swinging strikes have played for Wichita (of 128 players with a minimum of 180 PAs). Kendle, who has *struck* my interest, is among them, although he is much closer to #60 than he is to #1. While noting that Houston and Diaw are among the 10 lowest in the league, such a large group at the top makes wonder if grip it and rip it is the team's strategy? (Seven Kernels are in the top 60 in the Midwest League, out of 211 with at least 100 PAs. There is overlap among the Surge and Kernels players with high swinging strike rates. Only three Mighty Mussels are in the top 60 in the Florida State League, out of 154 with at least 100 PAs. Believe it or not, Quentin Young is just sixth highest in the league.) Further on Kendle: he has the best BABIP in the league and only decent contact numbers (for each ten times each of them swings, Kendle makes contact one fewer time than either Houston or Diaw, but one more time than Billy Amick), suggesting that some of his success is due to luck, but he is also #4 in line drive rate, at a very high 31.7% (caution: Texas League this year has higher rates than other leagues), so his success might also be due to frequently making very good contact when he does connect.

Diaz's option for 2027 has vested at not too high an amount, so it's hard to see TB letting him go. Arraez is great and I hope he cashes in this winter, but between Culpepper, Clemens, Lee, and Houston, the Twins hope to be in decent shape at 2B and SS for the next few years. Where would Arraez play?

This year in MLB, Liam Hicks is the catcher with the best plate discipline who is low on power and doesn't throw out many attempted steals. Diaw is age 22 in AA; Hicks had a similar AA season at age 24. Diaw's age 22 stats are actually mostly better than Hicks' age 24 stats, except that Hicks had better success against the run game. Being equivalent to Hicks would be a great outcome for Diaw, and there is potential for more.

Luke is a nice ballplayer, but the long-term plan for him should probably be that he's a key piece in a trade that brings back a solid player, e.g., Arraez for Lopez-plus.

He's a ballplayer. We project good qualities to players, particularly ones who are telegenic and play with grace like Hunter, but we would be better off not assuming any good or bad qualities about them as people.

If only Lewis could learn to hit the outside pitch to right field like Culpepper just did.

Pickings will be slim in free agency for back-up catchers. After Carson Kelly, who may get more money than we expect, the top choices may be the not-too-exciting group of Heim, d'Arnaud, Hedges, Sanchez, and Rogers. I would hope they sign another Jackson or Pereda for St. Paul, so that neither Cardenas nor Cossetti are the emergency catcher. Consideration should be given to having Lackey leap ahead of Tait.

If I had to put together a bullpen as part of a team in 2027, I'd much prefer Acton at $800 thousand over Hoffman at $12.67 million.

Based on history, I expect Buxton to be a good to very good player when he is healthy and plays, but to miss a lot of games. The median outcome for his surgery is probably that it will not affect him materially, but he will be a year older and need to adjust to a long layoff, which sometimes takes him longer than the average player. Based on those guesses, I expect him to be an asset to the team and once again worth his contract, but agree with you that the high likelihood that he will miss a lot of games and possibly have recovery issues would make it a mistake to rely on him to be the leader of a successful team.