MeleMouth

Finally, an article about an actually good reliever that also discusses his pitch quality! Thank you! The Athletic's Jim Bowden predicted 3 years for Morejon at $14 million a year. The Twins should definitely be in on that. Bowden's numbers are iffy, however, but even more would be OK. Having a good bullpen - and good catchers - will be helpful for developing young starters. If he's good and the Twins aren't, trade him in July.

You're way overselling Rortvedt. Yes, he is probably better than Jackson, but he's also at best a #3. Tampa saw him have his best year and then went out and got two better catchers. Rortvedt is a fine defensive catcher, but we'll probably quibble about the definition of "very good." In 2024, his biggest season, his Def rating was 14th of 27 catchers with at least 700 innings. He was 17th in Defensive Runs Saved and 12th in Fielding Run Value, at 2 runs above average. These are pretty mid results. If he were "very good," he probably would have gotten more than 84.1 innings this year, but he was basically catcher #4 for both the Mets and the Dodgers. You say he had quality AB's with the Dodgers, but his wRC+ was -3 (yes, minus), and his Statcast numbers weren't much better. He would be OK if the plan was to have a decent defensive backup receiver for the beginning of the year, until Diaw is ready or someone else becomes available. The only way he - or Jackson - should be part of an ongoing plan is if the team expects 2027 to bee a transition year in which they want to work on their pitching, which would be OK as long as the plan isn't another kind of "competitive transition" Frankenstein. Note that 2024 - Rortvedt's best year, for Tampa - was a transitional year for the Rays.

The issue is that it's not just Bauers vs. Lewis. It's whatever Milwaukee does to unlock hitters like Bauers and Vaughn vs. whatever Minnesota fails to do to unlock hitters like Lewis. Three suggestions to start: 1. Learn to take outside pitches to right field. (Maybe the biggest change he could make, because once pitchers learn they can no longer easily take advantage of him, he'll get more pitches in his wheelhouse.) 2. Focus on getting the barrel on the ball instead of optimizing your swing for home runs. 3. Stop complimenting yourself publicly and adopt a humble "this is what I need to do to get better" self-dialogue. Milwaukee and Tampa would probably work with Lewis on these changes. Will the Twins?

Great article with good suggestions, but the headline is wrong: the Twins' biggest organizational weakness is decision-making. Analytics and scouting will not overcome delusions, mis-set goals, or bad decisions, such as (1) making plans based on ambiguous statements that show that reaffirming an exalted self-image interferes with accurate judgment, like "go big or go home" braggadocio; (2) thinking the 2026 team had a real chance to make the playoffs; (3) defining the goal in the first place as being good enough to make the playoffs; (4) not trading veteran pitchers like Lopez and Ryan and players approaching free agency like Jeffers in order to refresh the talent pipeline, in complete contrast to teams like Milwaukee and Tampa that have sustained winning on a higher level; (5) falling in love with your analytic decisions, like always seeking the platoon advantage because some computer said that wRC+ tends to be higher for the average plate appearance, while ignoring team-building and player development needs as well as real world evidence that the algorithm isn't working; (6) when deciding to trade, trading away every good player in one function, instead of making strategic trades*; (7) thinking you're so awesome that you can easily replace the entire function you just ripped out wholesale; and (8) tending to hire people with whom you're familiar and who will tell you you're awesome. This list of organizational obtuseness is not complete. *Better scouting would probably improve the quality and health assessment of the players received in trades, which the Twins seem to lose from 2/3 to 3/4 of the time.

Not much says "we're going to start paying attention to the little things" less than paying a lot of money for a reliever with terrible control. His pitch quality is also down, with his fastball 1.5 to 2 MPH slower than it was from 2022 to 2025, rating below average for the first time in years, and his second pitch, his slider, also rating much worse this year. This year, his 4-seamer resulted in a 121 wRC+ and his slider was 113. Not a guy to sign, much less give a big contract to. But this article doesn't discuss his pitch quality at all. Instead, it's yet another "let's sign this guy we've all heard of who used to be good" article that contains only superficial, well-known facts.

"Rortvedt is . . . far superior" is a bit of a stretch. We have actual results for guidance. In 2024, Rortvedt and Jackson split catching duties for Tampa on a basically platoon basis. Rortvedt got more playing time, probably because of the platoon split, and put up better numbers, although defensively their ratings weren't that different and Jackson did much better with stolen bases. It was, by far, Rortvedt's best year. Either way, however, Tampa wanted to upgrade from both for 2025, so they brought Danny Jansen in and traded for Nick Fortes mid-season, at which time they flipped Rortvedt and a couple other players to the Dodgers for another catcher, Hunter Feduccia. As a post-script, on August 3 this year, the Dodgers traded for both Rortvedt and Feduccia, who shared the position for a while after that.

Four bold predictions: 1. The Twins will be the first team to announce a partnership with an AI company. 2. Tom Pohlad will stop idolizing himself in his public statements. Bonus points if Royce Lewis discontinues, also, and if most of his other statements aren't attempts to shape a "good guy" narrative. 3. They will realize they need to tear it all down and start over in players, strategy, and development processes, focusing on a window when Jenkins and Lackey are projected to be reaching stardom. 4. At least three relievers who are better than Jay Jackson will be signed in free agency. At least two will NOT be names that have been mentioned frequently during October speculation.

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"The team, they would soon learn, had agreed to pay Belfi $1.8 million after his 16th birthday. It was a deal Carmona had negotiated without consulting Belfi or his parents. It was also a handshake agreement that skirted Major League Baseball’s rules that bar teams from signing players younger than 16. Every year, all 30 major league teams reach preacuerdos, or early deals, with hundreds of Dominican prospects — a practice they make little attempt to hide. (The Diamondbacks did not respond to a request for comment.)" "But in two and a half years, the $1.8 million Belfi was promised would be almost all gone. Carmona received $630,000, which represented his 35% commission. But more than $950,000 went to someone who had no hand in teaching Belfi how to play baseball. His name is Santo Caraballo, one of the most notorious moneylenders profiting from Dominican baseball. His business partner is a national hero and, 10 years after his retirement, still a commanding figure within Major League Baseball: David Ortiz, known universally as 'Big Papi.'" "Major League Baseball has known for years about early agreements and the predatory industry that has grown around them. Even though it has a formidable economic and political presence in the Dominican Republic, it has done little about either. It has never publicly warned or penalized a team for making an early deal, and its attempts to educate families about moneylenders have been ineffectual." https://www.propublica.org/article/how-dominican-republic-baseball-factory-traps-players-mlb-santo-caraballo?src=longreads

Lowe would be a Falvey February special, when he would shop for bargains among the leftover free agents who want to start spring training on time. If at that time the Twins need his skillset and they can get him for a 1 year deal at low cost, then, sure, that would be fine. But if it's a strategy to sign Lowe for [reasons], then it would confirm once again that no level of quality among the on-field, player development, or analyst staffs will be sufficient to overcome the poor decision-making of the Twins organization.

Jake Bauers (past teams Tampa and Cleveland) in his age 27 season had 9.9 BB% and 34.9 K% in 272 plate appearances with an 88 wRC+ and -1 outs above average at first base. Royce Lewis in his age 27 season had 7.5 BB% and 25.5 K% in 509 PAs with an 85 wRC+ and -3 OAA at first base. In each of the last three years with Milwaukee, he increased his walks and decreased his Ks, although it didn't come together until this year. Now, after years of disappointment, Bauers led Milwaukee in wRC+ and could get at least $15M/year for multiple years for his age 31-34 seasons. Note that Milwaukee's second highest wRC+ this year came from Andrew Vaughn, after years of disappointment, whom they got for Aaron Civale (past teams Cleveland and Tampa). Lewis, after a few years of disappointment, will probably get about $4 or $5 million for his age 28 season, with basically a team option for his age 29 season. If the Twins sign someone like Bauers and let Lewis go, it is likely that a team like Milwaukee or Tampa will be happy to sign Lewis, after his years of disappointment. Lewis will be a free agent for his age 30 season, and there probably won't be many players more motivated to put it together before reaching free agency. Milwaukee and Tampa find lower-cost players who need one or two changes to thrive, but the plan for the Twins seems to be (besides sourcing talented relievers whose full value they can't figure out how to unlock before they become All-Stars or go to the playoffs and World Series elsewhere) to find higher-cost players whose skills were unlocked by another system, instead of unlocking those skills themselves.

So, to be clear, you are advocating for Ryan to listen to a voice different from what the Twins are telling him, and that voice is a Twins legend the Twins bring to spring training to talk to the pitchers?

Shannon Stewart, 2003. The best deal since then was probably Sergio Romo, 2019. This year's trades were probably third best among the Twins' deadline acquisitions in the 21st Century. NOTE: I thought and still think all 2026 trades were, but still consider them the third best. The deadline deals made by the Twins look even more meager when compared against deals made by serious non-wealthy teams who won the World Series recently: 2015 Royals - Johnny Cueto, Ben Zobrist; 2023 Rangers - Aroldis Chapman, Max Scherzer, and Jordan Montgomery. Even the Twins' mid-season deals that failed, such as for Capps, Mahle, and Dyson, were for a much lower caliber of player than what the Royals and Rangers acquired.

The Twins' new "approach" with Joe Ryan should be to approach all the other MLB teams to see what they'll trade for Ryan this winter.

2019 team was 3rd in overall non-pitcher WAR, based on being 3rd in offensive rating and 1st in isolated power, but it was also 24th in defensive rating. Falvey greatly improved the Twins' analytics, but when you start from a flawed premise, especially a simple premise (we will overpower everyone) that other teams can strategize against, the best analytics in the world in support of that premise won't make a difference in the W-L. The 2019 team lost in the playoffs 0-3, being outscored 23-7. It wasn't just Dobnak's fault and it shouldn't have been proof of concept.

Even though I started this, I have to say that each team gets some right and gets some wrong. That's why I called the Liberatore-Larnach-Turang picks an anecdote instead of a deeper proof of the differences between the teams. One difference that I suspect is real, but for which I haven't found proof, is that for some reason Tampa and Milwaukee don't suffer as much as the Twins when their draft picks don't pan out. That may be because Tampa is better at trading players they picked and Milwaukee does better at international signings. A strategy of taking players who are good at defense and helping them improve their hitting may also be more certain of producing at least some value than a strategy of drafting mashers and trying to make their defense better. Maybe it's a coincidence, but maybe it's not, that Tristan Peters, the ChiSox's rookie surprise this year, who had very good defense and decent offense, was drafted by Milwaukee and played AAA last year with Durham.

Statistics back you up. In 2026, TBR was #2 in defensive runs saved, with 87, and MIL was #5, with 62, whereas Twins were #28, with -36, which basically means that the Twins' defense cost them about an extra 100 runs this year. Twins as a team gave up 797 runs, vs. 650 by TBR and 618 by MIL, so well more than half of the gap could be due to the Twins' worse defense.

Maybe, but it would have been close. The Twins were 7 games behind the ChiSox, so this scenario would require some combination of Lopez in the rotation and the 2025 bullpen to be worth 7 wins. It's not clear where the wins come from adding Lopez to the rotation and backing out the starters who were acquired. 2024 Lopez was worth 3.1 fWAR; 2026 Bradley was worth 2.8 fWAR and 2026 Abel was worth 0.6 fWAR. It's also really hard to wave a magic wand and base projections, whether forwards or backwards, on getting good health from pitchers who have had one TJ and missed a lot of the previous year with a forearm strain. Let's just say that the swap from Lopez to Bradley/Abel are close to a wash, but recognize that the 2026 rotation could have been without all three but for the bullpen fire sale. The 2026 bullpen was worth 1.6 fWAR. The league-leading Padres got 8.9, so theoretically at least seven wins were possible, but it would be a lot to expect a combination of Duran, Jax, and Varland - in their 2025 roles - would have been worth that much. The 2024 Twins bullpen was worth 5.7. It might have been possible, but close, for the team to get six or seven additional wins if they had the previous year's bullpen. "Possible, but close" is different from "likely." Also, even if they had made the playoffs, with or without Lopez, they probably would have done no better than the ChiSox did, beating Houston in the Wild Card, then losing to Cleveland in the division series.

Thanks for this article, but it just skims the surface of draft-related differences between Minnesota and these teams, much less other issues. Here's one anecdote for you. It fits some of the stereotypes of all three teams. 2018 Draft: #16 - Rays take Matthew Liberatore, whom they flip two years later for Randy Arozarena, a trade that mystified people at the time; #20 - Twins take Trevor Larnach; #21 - Brewers take Brice Turang, who was considered to be a good middle infielder, but not nearly the hitter Larnach was.

A lot of well-known relievers whose stats in the last year or two are similar to Minter's are going to be available, including many whose 2026 comp were much lower. Relief pitcher may be the deepest position in this year's free agency, so the Twins don't need to pay premium prices, nor should their 2027 team merit paying premium prices for relievers. FanGraphs values Minter's last three seasons at $2.7 million - total for the three years, or $900 thousand per year. Minter will probably go for more than that, especially because that number isn't adjusted for the substantial parts of 2024 and 2025 he missed, but the Twins should pass if it gets much more than $5 million. Past injuries are the best predictor of future injuries, and above $5 million, that's a risk the Twins will not be able to afford, even if Pohlad raises the budget. If they need a reliever at mid-season, relievers like Minter will be available. If you really want to pay a free agent reliever the amounts bandied about in these comments, look at others like Morejon, Loaisiga, Kittredge, or Phillips.

Austin Martin is not a primary topic of planning. He keeps his job until someone better comes along, at which time he could be sent to St. Paul or even dropped from the 40-man. All planning should be about finding that better player. Until that better player comes along, little to no energy should be spent on trying to trade Austin Martin, because the return would be small.

I used to think that about politics, also, but several years ago I watched a documentary about the 1968 Nixon-Humphrey campaign, and, accustomed to modern political discourse with an emphasis on the "dis," was surprised by the amount of logic and coherent ideas that were communicated by both candidates and particularly by Nixon, who for years has been considered to be the poster child of the lying, deceitful politician who uses voters' fears to win election. A documentary will contain only excerpts, of course, but it was surprising how much higher was Nixon's amount of calm logic in comparison to what is seen today. It's certainly not zero to one, where things were pure and now they're corrupt, but today's levels of lying, fear, and hate in politics are unprecedented in our lives. Another example would be how Ford lost a lot of votes in the 1976 election with a slip-up that sounded like he was understating the level of Soviet control over Central and Eastern Europe. That would be a cute nothingburger in the deluge of intentional misstatements today, such as how voters completely ignored a 2016 statement about Putin by a candidate in 2016: “He's not going to go into Ukraine, all right? You can mark it down and you can put it down, you can take it anywhere you want.” Getting back to baseball, maybe that style can win election in politics where you don't have to prove the validity of what you say, but sports gives prompt feedback and while hype might sell a few tickets for a while, intelligence and hard work are going to beat hype at least 99 times out of 100. One more story: the Brewers are currently up 1-0 in the World Series, but just last year their owner was criticized for saying it was not his job to deliver a World Series. He faced backlash for that statement and perhaps the backlash caused him to increase payroll from $123M in 2025 to $142M in 2026, but the key point is that an owner of a team that was regularly making the playoffs did the opposite of hyping his team's chances. Instead, they kept doing the work to put a good team on the field, going to the NLCS last year and the World Series this year - after losing their exalted POBO and highly-regarded manager, and trading several of their best starters and relievers*. *NOTE: Milwaukee didn't trade ALL of their starters or relievers; just the ones who were getting expensive that they thought could bring back top prospects.

Increasingly, messaging is about manipulating people's feelings instead of giving them information that will help them better decide for themselves. Maybe that's politics, where decisions can be made by popularity instead of by a method to prove which ideas are better, and people increasingly vote by deciding which side they hate least. I would argue that's one of the greatest weaknesses of our current system - how people are given things to "feel" instead of information to know - but that's a different topic than sports like baseball. In sports, ideas can actually be proven, at least to a much greater degree, by wins and losses. There is certainly an element of luck, but over time that becomes smaller. To my knowledge, no championship has yet been won by hype. Hype can occasionally persuade a good player to sign with a team when that player might not have otherwise considered that team, but that's uncommon. Hype doesn't hit, catch, or throw the ball. Hype can be a little more helpful for fan communication, but even then, it doesn't work very well, at least judged by the Twins' slide down the MLB attendance rankings. People like winning first, but in the absence of winning, they will support a team that looks like it's working on a plan that they understand, but if you just give them a bunch of hype, cheap beer, and frequently-changing plans that were pretty ambiguous to begin with, they'll just tune you out. You can put together a few people who like to tell themselves they are awesome, like Royce Lewis and Tom Pohlad (the Star Tribune regularly showed a picture of the two of them grinning with self-satisfaction at each other, like trust fund bros whose parents bought them matching off-road jeeps to drive between their fraternity and their internships with their uncles downtown), and then everybody in their organization feels like they need to participate in the self-glossing, but at the end of the season hype becomes worthless and we can see who has a below average weighted runs created stat and a losing record, despite all of their big talk. And, in politics, I guess I wish someone would tell us things are hard, instead of an increasing number of politicians acting like things can be fixed simply and often in one day, often by just hating and punishing their neighbor-enemies more, while the deficit keeps exploding and things actually seem like they get worse instead of closer to being fixed. It's been demonstrated that easy, optimistic solutions are about as rare as unicorns, yet people seem to want them more than ever.

I'm tired of big talk, especially from someone who doesn't even have details about what he's confident about. "I don't know how it''ll play out, but I'm confident that we're going to be good" is malarkey. Actions are much more truthful. To paraphrase Teddy Roosevelt, speak softly and go get a couple of big sticks.

That makes sense to me, but it is unclear to me how he can have confidence that they will be able to get players that will make them competitive (definition of "competitive" is unknown) next year without knowing the players or their cost. Rortvedt - sure, sounds good, if he's better than Alex Jackson.