mikelink45
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Everything posted by mikelink45
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Front Page: The Future Value of Luis Arraez
mikelink45 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'll take him. In this era the HR stroke is over rated and the batting eye is under rated. He is a disciplined hitter who provides a constant on base presence. In addition, in this era of shifts, who know what a 2B should look like? I will be rooting for Luis for a long time - hopefully as a Twin. -
wins like this are fun and a W is always good, but the workload on an overloaded bullpen is a problem. What would we have done if the limits for September had been in place this year?
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- twins vs white sox
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Front Page: Get to Know Jorge Alcala
mikelink45 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
After the double header with nine RP put in to the games - he better be ready to go. -
The entire league is wrestling with relief pitcher overuse. When Starters only go 5 innings per game - that is 810 innings in a season (162 games) and 1458 innings if they all go just 9 means that 648 innings must go to relief pitchers. Since most go only 1 inning, that 648 appearances would be spread over 8 (on average bullpen arms). That means 81 appearances per arm (every other game). Not sustainable. Stat heads its time to figure out how to apply your data in a way that fits with the human arm and shoulder. If the starters went 7 innings we have half the bullpen stress. Of course if you have what we have left in the rotation we have to double the usage - and next year in September there will be limited call ups.
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- taylor rogers
- tyler duffey
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I have to jump on the list that is still holding back judgment - for at least two more years. This has been a fun year, but I would add that it is not just the Yankees who have joined us in the injury parade - so has the Dodgers and a number of other teams that are not ready for contention. On ESPN they quoted this stat - "According to Spotrac.com, the teams with the most injured list days on the season are as follows: 1. Yankees; 2. Padres; 3. Phillies; 4. Pirates; 5. Angels. The site also expresses this as "$ Spent on DL Players," which has this top five: 1. Yankees; 2. Mets; 3. Phillies; 4. Red Sox; 5. Mariners." NOTE - We are not on the list. And it you look at what they did to fill the holes and compare it to the Twins there is another lesson to ponder. Crisis management is key to success and our squad is crawling to the finish line. Lets see the results before we start worrying about Boston raiding our office - this off season I am more interested in what we will have left of a rotation!
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There is a reason we all say - Damn Yankees - and it is not because of the musical of that title. Their team has caught and is now passing us for the HR title, our two man starting rotation is not on a par with their less than great rotation and if I was in desperate need of a reliever and had both bullpens available I would turn to the Yankee threesome over the Twins. But beyond that the big stage is Yankee stadium. It is intimidating and scares me. I know ancient history is not accepted, past teams do not count, those were Gardy's teams, not Roccos...but I am still nervous, cautious, and not optimistic about this series. Of course, in reality, the only thing I am really concerned with right now is getting through the end of the season.
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I have a hard time reading "That said, there were some positive things to note." I looked at the score, at the runs given up, the walks and all I can say is that Gibson looked good walking to the mound! Sorry, I know health issues are devastating and I have great sympathy for him, but as a Twin Fan this is not how I want to see him used. Nor do I see why Stewart is here and has been given many opportunities all year. With an open roster and the players in today's Minor League Hitter of the Year article as well as the Pitcher of the year before that I cannot see why we do not have the best here and ready to step in. And I do not mean Ryan LaMarre. or Torreyes in the OF, but rather Larnach, Kiriloff... I have tried to think of something classy like the old Boston Braves - Spahn and Sain and pray for rain to cover Berrios and Odorizzi but I can only rhyme it with dizzy! I will add one thing about Pineda - I do not want him back, talk about letting down your team. Such terrible timing and devastating impact.
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- kyle gibson
- jonathan schoop
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Front Page: Twins Acquire OF Ryan LaMarre
mikelink45 replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The Wahoos playoff does not matter to me - only the MLB season. I guess I am heartless, but whoever had been performing well fills my roster. -
I am so disappointed with Pineda that it is hard to be reasonable. The only reality in this post to me is Odorizzi and Thorpe. Then good luck.
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- minnesota twins
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Front Page: Twins Acquire OF Ryan LaMarre
mikelink45 replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I do not like the move. Kiriloff, Rooker, this move has no upside. I know some of you are ok. I am not. This is reminiscent of past dumpster moves. I am not interested in feel good stories at this point in the season. -
Any chance we can face the Orioles and Royals? The Tigers play us to hard. The question is - how many expect us to beat the big guys?
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- houston astros
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What a puzzle and challenge - Berrios - no longer our ACE and annually doing an August Swoon. What happens? Tired? Tipping pitches? Too predictable? Where are all the analytics? We really have to have Berrios in the playoffs. Pineda and Odorizzi will pitch, but they will each go five innings, we need one pitcher to rest the BP with just one or two more innings and Berrios was that guy.
- 28 replies
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- jose berrios
- eddie rosario
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Clearing space - decisions about pitchers
mikelink45 commented on mikelink45's blog entry in mikelink45's Blog
I just cannot imagine these two rivals trading strength to one another.- 9 comments
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- minnesota twins
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Third and last in my series on the conundrums of protecting players from Rule V, getting rid of deadwood, choosing what to do about free agents and lining up trades. The Outfield and Infield had a lot of names and decisions, but nothing like the pitching staff. Here we have our Ace – Berrios – who has worn down in August as an annual ritual letting others that the Ace spot until he recovers – and hopefully he can. Looking at performance is not just a calendar event – we might also look at who he has been suffering against and it is not an all-star group of teams. So, is he an ACE? We have no one else and we still have him under control. So, do we extend him? Putting an Ace in front of him, adding more quality to the rotation would do a lot. Behind him is Pineda, but he is unsigned after this year and we just paid for two years to get one. Do we resign? Will he resign? Odorizzi was an All Star then he stunk and now he looks good but he is a free agent. Do we resign him? Gibson continues to perform as an underperforming pitcher with potential, but he is too old to have potential anymore. Do we resign him. Perez has an option – do we take it? Great start, horrible middle, is he okay now? Not after his performance with against the Tigers! Smeltzer came in and looked good, then he looked bad, and now he looks like a gimmick that might not have a lot of upside – is he in the rotation next year? Thorpe has stuff, he has looked good. He looks like he should be in the rotation next year. Graterol looks and sounds good because we actually have not seen him. Is he a starter or reliever next year or is he a bust? Stewart has been up and down and frankly he looks like a pitcher who has shown us all he has and it is not great. Littell seems to have risen and looks good, but that is as a reliever. Can he start again? Should he? Poppen has some stuff, but is it enough for the MLB staff? The Pen has Rogers on the top – can he keep it up? Romo has been great – do we keep him? Dyson has done well – is he long range? Duffey and May look like they are ready to settle in to the BP. Who do we keep? And Who do we let go? The starting rotation has the most fluidity. Cody Stashak has debuted – did you like what you saw? Who is Randy Dobnak? Is Gonsalves still a prospect or someone who missed his turn? Did Romero get moved to the pen to be moved to the DFA list? Has Ryne Harper had his fifteen minutes of fame? Can Hildenberger come back or was his strange delivery a short-term success? Marcos Diplan is a name that came in a trade but has not grown into a person of prominence. And can Alcala jump to the pen and be a difference maker? That is a long list. We do not know if there will be a trade – we do not know who will DFA nor do we know the trade scenarios. Is Balazovic ready soon? Is there a FA we can afford and attract from other teams? Is there a trade? Must Keep - Berrios, Rogers, Duffy, May, Littell, Thorpe, Graterol Want to keep - Pineda, Odorizzi, Romo, Dyson Say good-bye - Gibson, Perez, Gonsalves, Harper ???? - Dobnak, Stashak, Romero, Diplan, Hildenberger,
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- minnesota twins
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Wow is this productive. In two games we have eliminated both Perez and Gibson as post season starters - who is next?
- 49 replies
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- martin perez
- mitch garver
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In a May 16 article Jeremy Nygaard (TD) wrote, "Classes that will be first time eligible for the Rule 5 draft this November: College draftees in 2016 (Griffin Jax, Thomas Hackimer), prep draftees in 2015 (Travis Blankenhorn, Trey Cabbage) and IFAs in late 2014 or 2015 (Brusdar Graterol, Edwar Colina) This also includes those who were acquired via trade that fit the aforementioned criteria (Luke Raley, Devin Smeltzer, Jorge Alcala, Jhoan Duran, Gilberto Celestino, Gabriel Maciel)." There would be some changes in the list now, but that is a good starting point and you can see how crowded it is.
- 9 comments
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- minnesota twins
- luis arraez
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I started with the outfield as I look at the Twins current 25 man active roster, 40 man overall roster and the crush of players who are on the field, plus those needing to be added to the 40 man and the potential free agents, and possible trade candidates. The current Major league infielders and catchers (who ocassionally move to a base): Cron Schoop Polanco Sano Arraez Gonzalez Adrianza Castro Garver Astudillo Cron and Schoop are FA - do we resign them? Schoop has been terrific this past week, but his performance otherwise has been a lesson in low level excellence and high level disappearance. He just turned that around, but does that convince you to keep him? Cron has been injured a lot and yet he has produced .257 .319 .475 .794. Do we resign him? Those are the first two questions that need to be answered before going ahead. More questions - is Gordon MLB ready? Can he hold up to a full season workload? Is Arraez the 2B of the future or is Polanco moving over since his glove and arm are so often questionable at SS. If Polanco is not at SS who is? Gonzalez is best left to play a little of everywhere and Adrianza had a break out season, but is it sustainable. Lewis is going to AZ, but will he be OF or IF in the future and how soon is he ready? Wander Javier is not ready and still needs to prove himself in MiLB. Will Sano stay at 3B or does he replace Cron? If so, who plays third? Blankenship seems like the only prospect who actually plays 3B - is he ready? Does Garver play more at 1B and if so, who catches if Castro is gone as a FA? Is it Astudillo or will we see Jeffers? Does Kiriloff go to the OF or 1B? Is Rooker even a consideration anymore? Has Larnach passed the others and does he stand in line for 1B? The crystal ball is cracked - this is a mess to sort out. Not too many minor leaguers, but a few important ones. First I predict that we will let Cron go and I feel sorry for him if he is cut two years in a row after productive seasons. Injuries did him in this year. Second I have a feeling Schoop slips away too, but not as positive on this one. I do not believe in the minor leaguers pushing the current infield so I see: 1B - Sano/Garver - maybe Kiriloff by the end of the season 2B - Arraez/Gonzalves - Gordon if Arraez was a mirage this year. SS - Polanco/Adrianza 3B - Sano/Adrianza/Gonzalves and Blankenship by season end if Sano is moved to 1B C - Garver/Astudillo/Jeffers by midseason What do you think? Who do you move?
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- minnesota twins
- luis arraez
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I am pleased with our recent victories, but still remember the previous Tigers/White Sox week and I am not ready to just flip the switch yet. Judging a pitching staff from a dose of Sox/Royals/Tigers/Rangers does not allow me to project against the Yankees/Astros. Just keep doing well Twins and build up confidence.
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Reading the blogs and comments I see a lot of people looking at the outfielders and whether we should trade Rosario for starting pitching, put Jake Cave on the roster for Post Season and how to handle the surplus in the minors. September is a big audition month and a time to give some players a little rest. We have too many players who need to be added to the 40 man and not enough room. Do we trade, do we DFA, do we get rid of players already on the roster? Do we allow free agents to leave? So how do we clear the surplus? As I pondered the Rosario trade idea I was struck with the fact that Eddie is a nice player, but in many ways he his not much above replacement in a league where everyone hits HRs. I see Eddie behind Buxton and Kepler, but trading requires the other teams to value your player as high as you would like them too and I do not see Eddie bringing in the SP that we dream of. Nor do I see Cave as a full time player being better than Eddie - another just above replacement performer - nice but not essential. My thought is that if we want something; the player teams will value highest is Buxton. Buxton has now had 1250 big league at bats and this was his best year, but overall he has hit 237/292/706, His defense is what we really value, but he has to be on the field to provide defense. April 1, 2014 Buxton put on injury list by Fort Myers, and again in Fort Myers on May 11 and July 6. July 26, 2015 on DL (Twins) thumb injury. July 15, 2017 Buxton on DL, groin injury. April 2018 on IL for migraines; May 10 broken toe and July 14 back on IL with left wrist strain. In August 2018 he was on the DL in Rochester with a left wrist injury, in June 2019 he was on the IL with a right wrist injury, July 16 on the IL with concussion symptoms, and again on July 23, concussion again, and August 3 - left shoulder subluxation. He played five years in 388/810 games - 48%. How long before injuries and age remove speed and reduce him to a nice, but not great OF? He is valued by us and many others - if we want a starting pitcher Byron might be the best bait. But do we have another CF? Kepler probably moves there and in two years we would be surrounded by Larnach and Kiriloff and our OF defense would not be great. I cannot see this team extending Rosario and I do not see Cave as more than a place holder. Is there a CF in the system? So I see Rosario going, at least as a FA, Cave as a place holder and Buxton probably still here, but a good trade bait. I see Larnach and Kiriloff coming up, I see Rooker going somewhere else and I see Wade as never more than a fourth OF and probably playing for another team - maybe Gardy would like him in Detroit.
- 4 comments
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- outfield
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