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DataNerd

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Everything posted by DataNerd

  1. DataNerd
    My heart wants the ace upside of Flora, but my brain says that a bat is the smarter pick. I'd be happy with any of the top 4, and going with an underslot move that isn't one of them would just be outsmarting ourselves.
  2. DataNerd
    Not sure what else Quick needs to show in Ft Myers. Sinker at 96, Changeup that misses a ton of bats, Curveball at 2800 RPM and missing bats, cutter that looks solid. Making a good argument to be the #2 pitching prospect behind Prielipp, and maybe a T100 guy sometime this year.
  3. DataNerd
    His fastball is hard for guys to hit hard, but it is not a bat-missing pitch. Even without adjusting for a higher AVG than xAVG, his fastball has been more valuable than it was last year. He needs to get either his slider or split-finger back to being a pitch that guys can miss on. Won't be a quick fix, but he looks like a guy who could really benefit from a Sweeper or messing with the Curve to make it a chase pitch rather than sneaking it for strikes.
  4. DataNerd
    Yeah. It's weird to have a guy who is not chasing bad pitches, making a ton of contact when he swings, having high exit velocities but yet still having a bad batted ball profile, but that is where he has been this year. It's a bit impressive to have a 90th% EV at the 99th percentile for AAA hitters and only have a 0.068 ISO
  5. DataNerd
    There is a reason that Bowden isn't working for an MLB team
  6. DataNerd
    Some really good pitching performances. Unfortuately there seems to be a statcast issue, so don't have any data for Prielipp/Rojas/Quick, but based on the results it's looking good. Hill needs to throw strikes. Definitely not giving up on him, but he might be behind Prielipp/Rojas/Quick right now.
  7. DataNerd
    In 25 he threw his change/curve/sinker 21% of the time in MLB and 12% in AAA. It is currently at 35% at AAA. His change is now called a splitter so it may be a different pitch, and it is currently getting 3 inches more armside movement then his change was. Curveball is 4mph slower and is moved to being more of a horizontal pitch, while last year it was mostly vertical movement. The curve is missing more bats, while the splitter seems about the same Not all good news though, the fastball whiff rate went from 24% in AAA to 10%, slider from 40% to 32%. Really needs to get the velo back to where it was.
  8. DataNerd
    He's 24 and in his 3rd season at AA. Hit .212 and .219 his first 2 years
  9. DataNerd
    Between his slider and cutter (which I think both are the same pitch, but MLB list them seperately) Moring got 11 whiffs on 20 swings and 29 pitches. If he can get the fastball up to average 95+, the fastball/slider will play in MLB. He's easily in my top 30
  10. DataNerd
    Nope😉
  11. DataNerd
    Really curious on how hard he is throwing. The sweeper looked like a legit pitch in FM in 24 (2750 RPM, 39% whiff rate) but the fastball was only 92. Didn't have great movement either, but if he can get it up to 96-97 in relief he could be a middle reliever.
  12. DataNerd
    Winokur/Amick/Young, all no.
  13. DataNerd
    Lots to like with some of the new talent, but on the other side I am panic-selling my Quentin Young stock. 15K in 24PA is extremely concerning, and he doesn't have a single game without 2Ks.
  14. DataNerd
    It means a lot for Moring, since he never showed this in college. 5.49 ERA, 61BB/94K in 100IP, and the Big West isn't the pinnacle of college baseball either. I'm assuming that along with better control, he made some improvements to the stuff over the offseason.
  15. DataNerd
    I wouldn't have Bell nearly as high as Law has him. Medical issues and hasn't demonstrated game power in college. Not in the same tier as Emerson/Lackey/Flora, and Falvey never passed on the top tier player at the top of the draft, so I'm not expecting Zoll to either. With how different those 3 players are to each other, wouldn't be surprised they just took the one who will sign for the least money to spend on later picks.
  16. DataNerd
    Yes, after the Rays released him and he played a bit with us in 22. Was horrible.
  17. DataNerd
    The amount of concern that people had for Houston having a horrible BABIP in 46ABs in CR last year was insane (and completely ignoring the 54ABs in Fort Myers). He Hit .270 in A-A+, and the K% was below 20% at both levels.
  18. DataNerd
    Moring has a massive up arrow next to his name after this showing. Fastball averaged 93 with 20in of IVB, and he's really young for a 3-yr college guy only currently being 21. If he can add a couple of ticks, he could have an above-average fastball. Also, he's from UC Santa Barbara, same as the top college pitcher Jackson Flora. Foreshadowing? Probably not
  19. DataNerd
    I'm not able to quickly look up players who played at multiple levels, but Kendall George for LAD stole 100 bases. A lot of minor league C don't have MLB-caliber arms
  20. DataNerd
    I'm not in favor of the strategy the way you put it, but you don't need to do that to have money to spend around when you pick at the top of the draft. Last year, the Mariners saved 700k picking MLB Pipeline's #2 player at #3, and in 2024 the A's saved 1.37M picking the #4 at #4. Right now, the draft is looking like Roch at 1-1, then Emerson/Lebron/Flora/Lackey, meaning the Twins will have the choice of 3 of the second group. If you sign the guy you want for #4 slot value, that would save 750k, which would be enough to move #43 to #32. Could easily take from other places in the draft to get it into a top 30 slot if that was the direction they wanted to go in
  21. DataNerd
    Flora has an elite fastball (not quite the speed that Skenes had, but has better movement for whiffs), similar to Chase Burns who went 2nd overall in 24' and is currently starting for the Reds. Flora doesn't have a secondary as good as Skenes slider was, and he also isn't nearly as built as Skenes was. So not at Skenes level, but if he was he wouldn't be making it to #3
  22. DataNerd
    Another low-cost reclamation project arm. Makes sense with the open roster spot, but probably more likely to be cut than promoted.
  23. DataNerd
    Watched on milb.com. He had a nice scoop on a poor throw by the 3B.
  24. DataNerd
    Cavaco never had a K% below 30%, and he was at 38% in rookie ball after he was drafted. Houston was 19% between Low-High A (and was lower at High A). He had a .488 BABIP in A, then a .162 in A+ in about the same sample size each. With Houston, the concerns on the bat are that he doesn't get to much power, but the hit tool was fine.
  25. DataNerd
    When people do grades, they are often considered to be 1 standard deviation per 10, so saying that a guy is a 70 would be saying they are projected to be in the top 5% of all MLB hitters. It's too hard to project guys to be at that level when they have never faced MLB pitching and are still 7 years away from their prime. MLBPipeline has 1 70 hit grade and 2 65s. belonging to the #2, #5. and #9 prospects in baseball
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