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DataNerd

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Everything posted by DataNerd

  1. DataNerd
    Pena has been a worse version of Arraez in the low minors. Makes a ton of contact, no pop. Main difference is that Pena has long periods where he is hitting .240 while Arraez never hit below .298 at a level with more than 100PAs.
  2. DataNerd
    Neto is a great player (better than I think most of the comments currently have) and is only 25, but the prospects at SS are a huge strength so I don't like trading assets to make that better (and don't want to trade Houston/Culpepper when we are a game under 500).
  3. DataNerd
    I would be shocked if he is up by the end of the year. He needs consistant PAs and doesn't need to be added to the 40 man. Also with a potential lockout and very little upper minors experience, he is a guy I would want to be playing next year. On the call-up, he was insane in A+ in Jun, with a 193 wRC+ and a 24BB%/10K%, .408/.537/.592 triple slash. His July AA numbers weren't at that level--only a 164 wRC+.
  4. DataNerd
    Barr showing why some people were really high on him going into the draft. He gets a ton of spin on the ball and is only 20. Didn't throw a single changeup which is a bit concerning, but there is plenty to like.
  5. DataNerd
    He has 45 PA this year, and in SSS the BB/K is much better than last year. Good players have stretches this long where they are negative players.
  6. DataNerd
    100%. In-Zone contact rate of 78%, 26th percentile in AAA. Mashes fastballs and changeups when he connects, but is atrocious against breaking pitches.
  7. DataNerd
    The FSL as a whole has been successful on 76% of their SB attempts, so Lackey was above average game 1
  8. DataNerd
    We definitely would take back the Varland trade right now, but we are way ahead in the Jax trade and the Duran trade is up in the air (Tait looks much worse, Abel much better). I'm happy with what we got for those 3 as a whole, and I'm not sure there was a way to know that Varland would break out while Jax would regress.
  9. DataNerd
    Really the only thing that Jenkins is really struggling with is he doesn't pull the ball in the air much. This makes him appear worse because you have a bunch of AAAA guys who are able to pull the ball against pitchers who aren't good enough to sniff an MLB bullpen that inflate the run environment making high average-low power hitters look worse.
  10. DataNerd
    Probably a little high on the price for what I would like (although that is probably more due to me being high on Agbayani), but it's a solid move. Being this early in the deadline, we definitely targeted Minter for some reason, hopefully that works out.
  11. DataNerd
    With Adley on the IL currently, their 2 catchers have wRC+ of 36 and -13 for the season. Rogers' 61 is an upgrade, but there is no way this is anything more than trying to get someone not atrocious.
  12. DataNerd
    Beck is the type of guy that we should be going for as a throw in. He's 27 and questionable if he can stick at RP, but our BP depth is nonexistent so we have innings to see if he can figure it out.
  13. DataNerd
    Yankees don't want Larnach. They have a left-handed DH, 2 left-handed starting OF and Judge who will never be benched in the playoffs. They are desperate for guys who can hit LHP, which Larnach absolutely can't do. It's also why they really want Jeffers because he can DH against RHP when he isn't catching.
  14. DataNerd
    Educated guesses, maybe totally off.
  15. DataNerd
    If we trade a non-Jeffers catcher, my money is on Alex Jackson. Someone will view him as a cheap backup improvement, and we can find a replacement in the offseason pretty easily for him.
  16. DataNerd
    Issue is there is only 54 games left, so even if we improve the talent level to be a .600 team, we probably still have a 25% chance to not make the playoffs, likely don't get a first round bye and then have only a 60% chance of winning the first round. Even become elite would give us a bit worse than chance odds at making the ALDS. Baseball is too random for the best team to win in this short amount of time.
  17. DataNerd
    No way would I be willing to pay the cost. He's a 4-5, and getting another guy like that for next year isn't a good use of resources (Ryan/Pablo/Bradley are all in front of him, with Abel/Prielipp having much more upside). I'd rather go for the rental equivalent of Hancock who we won't have to pay near the price for.
  18. DataNerd
    We could empty the prospect pool and not make the playoffs. Going all in when you are .500, have an above-average farm system and a youngish team is not a wise move.
  19. DataNerd
    I'm not that close to doing it now with the Ks, but if he hits like this he has to start next year in A+ even with a 25+ K%.
  20. DataNerd
    Hard to tell if this is their actual stance on Jeffers, or if it's just smokescreen season. You have the leverage of a QO/comp pick to try to get the Yankees/Rays not only to bid against each other, but against us keeping him as well. Or we deal Alex Jackson for a 6th inning guy.
  21. DataNerd
    Probably requires a 3 team trade, since NYY/TBR are pure buyers. Should be plenty of teams that would love to trade a reliever for prospects as the 3rd team.
  22. DataNerd
    I'm a light buyer, getting a couple of bullpen arms and a rental starter that's mainly for insurance (we are 2 SP injuries away from having to start either Gallagher/Klein, and Prielipp might not be able to continue to start in Sep). Probably sending out Jeffers since that will help get some solid BP arms without spending much prospect capital and since the league is short on C and RHH he probably requires an overpay on the trade charts.
  23. DataNerd
    They would likely be paying about all of this year's salary and half of next years with us giving them a prospect outside of the org top 100, so it's essentially 1/10, with the potential for an extra year if he bounces back enough to be able to go 180 IP next year. Not sure I would be that interested, but we aren't breaking the bank for him
  24. DataNerd
    If you look at fWAR, Larnach is at 2.1 and Bader was at 2.0 when traded (BR uses DRS for defense while FanGraphs uses statcast which causes the difference). Bader did get a value bump because he could play CF, but I think Larnach will get more than the Bader did, with the caveat that Mendez is more highly valued now than when we got him.
  25. DataNerd
    We signed Caratini as a FA in the offseason because the league wasn't giving him the contract we thought he was worth. I'm not sure that a team is all of a sudden more excited about Caratini now when he looks to be pretty much the same player he was the last 2 years.
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