Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

DataNerd

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    58

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by DataNerd

  1. DataNerd
    He's a guy who sneaks into the top 100 for me, and I think that the industry as a whole underrates guys who were recently drafted. Houston was ranked 15th by MLB, was drafted 16th and got the 16th highest bonus, so it's pretty safe to view him as the 15-16th highest guy in the class. If we look at the current MLB Top 100 prospects, there are 13 guys from the 2024 draft top 30 (which wasn't particularly strong), as well as Burns/Kurtz/Caglianone/CamSmith who are no longer prospects but would definitely be top 100, and Moore would be a maybe. So 17-18 guys make the top 100, so a guy taken 16th should be towards the end of the list. There will likely be some growing pains as he learns to be more of a contact hitter in the pros (he sold out more for power at WF, which worked there but won't in pro ball), but he'll probably get the contact rates up. I'd easily put him above Rojas/Hill/Prielipp, and would have above Abel before ST.
  2. DataNerd
    Big year for Soto. His 2024 numbers besides the ERA weren't that bad, FIP was basically league-average. Only 60% of runners LOB, .365 BABIP aren't numbers you would expect to repeat. He was significantly better his 3 starts in CR last year, and if he shows he can do that for a full season he could easily be the top pitching prospect.
  3. DataNerd
    Bailey Ober, Zebby Matthews, Cole Sands, David Festa all were later guys who are going to be a big part. Jax and Varland were as well. Being able to put together an above-average pitching staff (which we would have if we didn't trade away the bullpen) without spending high draft picks or big FA contracts on pitchers is a great showing of our pitching development. The reason we are bad is because we don't spend money we had a stretch of 5 years where our first round picks were Larnach, Cavaco, Sabato, Petty (traded for Sonny Gray, let go in FA), Lee. We have had good pitching development.
  4. DataNerd
    Definitely a boom/bust guy, but at this point there are no sure things and this spot seems about right. He has a lower chance of making it than everyone ranked above him, but he similarly has a better 90th percentile outcome than anyone ranked below him.
  5. DataNerd
    DeBarge started out at CR looking like a potential top 100 guy, and by the end of the year was horrible (34:40 BB/K in April/May, 13:43 in Aug/Sep). He can rocket back up the list if he returns to how he was in the first half, or plummet if he repeats his second. Mendez can hit, but can't do much else. He may be a 1B, and will need to turn raw power into HRs for that to possibly work. Probably have Ellwanger slightly higher than the rest of the list, not because of him particularly but that draft picks seem to be underrated entering pro ball. I know already that I'll disagree with where Houston is ranked
  6. DataNerd
    There is a good chance they will need to address it next year, but they addressed a short term need, and we'll have a much better idea in a few months what we are needing at the position. It's plausible that a Caratini/Jackson duo would be fine for a year while waiting for Tait, or both could tank and we are looking at Caratini as the backup and needing a starter. I'd rather address the problem when we know what the problem actually is
  7. DataNerd
    He looked dominant yesterday. The fastball was up 3mph from his AAA average, slider up 1.5mph with 150rpm higher spinrate. Completely fooled Austin Riley on a changeup. Major question on how many innings he can throw, can he last a full year as a starter, and if he can throw strikes, but the stuff is legit.
  8. DataNerd
    Agree with most to keep him as a starter for now and reevaluate in a few months. If he doesn't show progress, it's fine to move him to the pen, but he's close enough that improving a secondary or a tick or two on the fastball could make him a solid starter.
  9. DataNerd
    I don't think they are going to lose a ton of value by keeping him until July, and baseball is a lot more unpredictable than many people here are acting like it is. We went from 59 wins in 2016 to 85 in 2017.
  10. DataNerd
    Main reason the drop isn't as much is because models like our pitching depth, and so the innings that were going to Lopez at a 3 WAR rate got moved to Bradley/Matthews/SWR/Abel who are going at a 1.5 WAR rate.
  11. DataNerd
    1. Using monthly defensive numbers is not a great analysis unless you are thinking that a guy was hurt. Even yearly they tend to have wild changes year to year. 2. While he is coming off of his worst defensive season (from Statcast RAA), he was still 2 runs above average and had a 100th percentile sprint speed. Really am wondering if this is actually a decline in ability, or a focus on staying healthy by not taking unnecessary risks.
  12. DataNerd
    After a terrible 25 for him, 26 isn't looking much better. For both him and the team, would be great if he could bounce back.
  13. DataNerd
    He had a .227 BABIP last year (career .312). Don't buy that he is going to get near his 3.18 ERA that he had last year. Last year had a 12.7 BB% and is 9.9% for his career. His 2024 was much better under the hood, so there is definitely hope that he can limit the walks and be a solid pitcher. But it's not that hard to see why LAD wasn't willing to ride with him again.
  14. DataNerd
    No team is looking at BBTV to evaluate players, but it is a useful initial tool because often fans don't value players the way that teams value them. If you look at all of the deadline trades we made last year, they all were roughly the same value on both sides. Odorizzi was coming off of a year where his walk rate jumped significantly and the Rays thought that he was damaged goods.
  15. DataNerd
    If HOU is going to trade Parades, they probably want most of their value to come from a corner OF, not a backup C. If we are going to trade Jeffers, a 3B with 2 years of control would not be what I'm looking for either.
  16. DataNerd
    It's definitely not a good system, but the question becomes what do you replace it with? Baseball has a much longer and larger developmental system than any other US sport, and players often take 2-3 years before they become above-average, so whatever system needs to encourage teams to develop young players by getting excess value out of the ones that succeed.
  17. DataNerd
    With the depth we have, he's an easy St Paul guy. Gives him more opportunity to develop the sweeper in a low-stakes environment, which would really help him against RHH (he had a 26K% against LHH vs 18% for RHH). It has the velo/spin to be a plus pitch if he can locate it and tunnel the fastball off of it.
  18. DataNerd
    1. There is no way the Twins make the Jax trade if they didn't view Bradley as a starter. 2. Bradley is younger than SWR, Festa, Zebby, and even Prielipp. Only half a year older than Abel/Morris. He's younger than Ober/Ryan were when they made their debut. He had some issues last year, but the trajectory of his first 2 years had him looking like a potential star. He's easily the #4 starter for me.
  19. DataNerd
    See what he does in spring training (assuming that he isn't DFA'd before then). Fastball is legit, could be a weapon if he gets fixed, but likely doesn't make the team.
  20. DataNerd
    He hasn't hit the number of HRs (or have the exit velo to suggest that he will develop it) that you would need out of a LF/RF to be a top 100 guy. The bat looks legit, but without a lot of HRs/BBs and likely being negative-value defensively, it both limits the upside and also has the concern that he'll hit .260 but not do enough else to be a starting OF. I don't have him as a top 100 guy, but as a 101-200 guy. Would not be shocked if he becomes a good player, but it's hard to see him as a great one.
  21. DataNerd
    Elite exit velo without horrible whiff rates. Belief that the power will start translating more to HRs as he ages (which isn't uncommon).
  22. DataNerd
    Really think Culpepper is the most underrated guy in the system. Solid BB/K/HR numbers, a legitimate chance to stay at short and likely a plus defender at 3B/2B otherwise. I have him closer to Jenkins than to whoever the org's 3rd prospect is.
  23. DataNerd
    He also doesn't have the ability to spin a curveball. Shame because the command/changeup are legit
  24. DataNerd
    Ohl does not have an MLB fastball, and it's hard to make a changeup work when hitters aren't worried about the fastball. Adams does, and if he can improve a secondary option he could be a part of the bullpen. He'll probably start out in AAA even if we don't sign another player, so there probably won't be a decision made on him until a month or two into the season.
  25. DataNerd
    For all of the questions about what does Lee do well, he has a strong in-zone contact rate (56th/215 min 400PA, 75th percentile). And while he is certainly not a great defender, he isn't a black hole there either. For all of this talk about bat speed, the R^2 between bat speed and wRC+ for 2025 is 0.09. It is far less important than a lot of people here are acting like it is.
×
×
  • Create New...