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NYCTK

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Everything posted by NYCTK

  1. NYCTK
    And what about the other 31 seasons? No one is really discussing lower expectations for Kepler. We're just pointing out the fact that a mid tier prospect becoming a 20 WAR player is a very good outcome actually, and anyone disappointed is completely unreasonable. You're allowed to be disappointed with particular moments, or at-bats, where he failed to come through. Absolutely. That's part of being a fan. But if you're taking a look at his Twins career and come away with the conclusion that he didn't live up to your expectations, I'm sorry, but you're a bad fan and you will always be disappointed. Perhaps you should go cheer for the Dodgers.
  2. NYCTK
    They can DFA Tonkin again. He loves it.
  3. NYCTK
    Having a Lefty reliever isn't really that valuable in today's game like it was 20 years ago. Sure, many players do have drastic splits, but you still gotta pitch to two other players. Just get the best pitchers on the roster, arm be damned.
  4. NYCTK
    This series is like It's A Wonderful Life, but if Clarence visited Potter and is trying to get him to jump.
  5. NYCTK
    woo I love to cheer for a baseball team to save money on the margins in arbitration.
  6. NYCTK
    Just comparing it to the AL West, it's pretty clear the AL West has the best team, and the AL Central has the worst team. We can debate about the nuanced rankings of those other 8 teams, but those two facts are pretty solidified. I'd probably argue the AL West has the two best teams of the 10. Last season, the AL Central was better, and did beat them in the season series 87 - 72. But I'm more so discussing 2025. The AL Central, collectively, was very healthy and didn't lose much to unexpected injury, whereas the AL West was significantly less lucky. The AL Central "lost" 29.3 WAR to injury compared the AL Wests 44.1 and as has been discussed, the AL West teams are actually working to improve where the AL Central are almost all standing pat.
  7. NYCTK
    It's a great little escape in the winter. ZiPS has the best roster as something like this: C Ryan Jeffers 1B Edouard Julien 2B Luke Keaschall 3B Royce Lewis SS Carlos Correa LF Matt Wallner CF Byron Buxton RF Emmanuel Rodriguez DH Gasper, Mickey C2 Christian Vázquez IF Willi Castro OF Trevor Larnach B4 José Miranda
  8. NYCTK
    I think we all know the reason this is a borderline playoff team is only because the AL Central is the worst division in baseball so a mediocre team (or 3!) is able to sneak in. Vegas has the line at 83.5 wins. I'd bet the under if I were a betting man. Easy money.
  9. NYCTK
    How dare fans want ownership to put together a team that can advance at least to the ALCS more than once in 33 years. This comparison is, frankly, ridiculous. If you're disappointed with Kepler, you'll almost never be satisfied by any player short of an actual Hall of Famer. If I were to guess, you were one of the hoards of fans criticizing Joe for not being an MVP candidate every season. Calling him an overpaid bum.
  10. NYCTK
    I mean...it's the offseason and we all knew the Twins weren't doing anything. So, I don't know what you expect. Anyways, Fangraphs posted the Twins ZiPS projections! Rodriguez has a very weird line of 211/343/397. Seems about right. He's going to be a very, very frustrating player.
  11. NYCTK
    Sure, but helps that three off those teams cleaned up against the White Sox. Guardians only ones that didn't ironically. AL West probably a bit worse last year but not by much.
  12. NYCTK
    Perhaps. Way more likely to be a Twin than Alonso though.
  13. NYCTK
    Why do people keep saying this? This isn't true. Just like the Twin Cities aren't a small market. I feel like the Twins org has brainwashed it's fans into a 'poor us' mentality.
  14. NYCTK
    Not really, that's still really impressive. Watching and tracking pitches with that movement and velocity is difficult and the introduction of the digital tools, the umpires are getting better each and every year (though this is potentially due to the old guard retiring out of the league). I actually hate the strike zone displayed on the television because it's not always accurate and does nothing but get fans in a tizzy. I'm ambivalent about introducing the strike/ball challenge system. Seems to be pretty well implemented in AAA but I've never actually watched it in context of an actual game.
  15. NYCTK
    Adam Dunn was shockingly "only" ~38% TTO in the minors. Judge ~ 41% Happ ~40% Schwarber ~ 41% Wallner ~ 47% Julien ~ 50% Emmanuel is sitting right with Joey Gallo at 56% So, we can see him become successful, but...I'd say Gallo is the median good outcome. The chance of him being a spectacular bust seems very high.
  16. NYCTK
    He struck out 12 times in 30 plate appearances with the robo ump in AAA.
  17. NYCTK
    The thing is he isn't really a high level prospect. He's very, very intriguing. But his red flags prevent him from being a top level prospect. His strike out propensity actually means he likely WILL have some terrible stretches that get him sent down at some point.
  18. NYCTK
    No, because this has the free agents already removed from the roster. Digging deeper, looks like it's nearly all adjustments made on defensive projections. Team defense collectively is -1.8 runs below average, opposed to -11.4 at the end of the season. Half a run here, half a run there. 4.4 runs better for Royce Lewis seems to be the single biggest adjustment. So...that's cool I guess...
  19. NYCTK
    Comps bWAR - Schwarber: 15.4 Happ: 17.7 Gallo: 15.4 Only to say, Twins fans gotta get over their hatred of Gallo. He had a pretty good career. Just not with the Twins. A career like Gallo should be very welcome for a second tier prospect. With a player that looks like he will similarly strike out in 1/3 of his plate appearances (at least initially) that really limits his ceiling. But like you showed with Happ, there's always a chance he improves upon that specific skill in time.
  20. NYCTK
    Sitting at work, I just decided to run a fun little exercise. I wanted to see how much teams have improved themselves during the offseason (so far). Comparing the team's projected depth charts from November 5th to today: Team fWAR added Tigers 3.0 Twins 1.2 Royals 0.3 Guardians -1.4 White Sox -2.1 No surprises there. But what I found more interesting was that the division that was arguably the worst in baseball in 2024 has done, by far, the least to improve for 2025. NLW 9.5 NLE 9.2 ALE 8.6 NLC 8.0 ALW 6.6 ALC 1.0
  21. NYCTK
    Believe me, I'm happy to have an entire series dedicated to ****ing on rich *******s.
  22. NYCTK
    I just don't see the value in this level of pedantry (and sometimes seeming outrage) around someone that proved himself to be a vile human. If he instead was acting as an enforcer for the mob during prohibition, and then went on to become a mob boss himself later in life, no one would be getting outraged if someone conflates his career timeline and says he was a mob boss during prohibition.
  23. NYCTK
    Wondering what went wrong with a player that was never a top end prospect but still became a 20 WAR player just tells me the only thing wrong was unfair expectations.
  24. NYCTK
    I agree. But he went on to become the evil banker stereotype. So who really gives a crap that some people conflate "evil man helped kicked people out of homes during great depression" with "evil man kicked people out of homes during great depression".
  25. NYCTK
    So now we're just being pedantic. Not particularly useful, especially for a guy that went on to prove he's evil. He earned money by assisting in the foreclosure of homes during the great depression.
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