BK432

Sheer brilliance.

Hard not to like what Cade Povich has done so far this year. Pitching well at high A at a reasonably young age and hitting 97 shows that his velo is up a tick. Wouldn't be surprised to see his FV grade rise to a 40+ or 45 if this is indicative of how the rest of the year goes. Possible Top 15 Twins prospect next year.

I'm happy Buxton took the deal he did, but part of me remains surprised he didn't respond similarly to the Twins' offer in real life as he did to your OOTP 7/$100M offer.

I agree with the sentiment that what was proposed probably isn't enough, but: a) Trueblood didn't finish putting the deal together, he was just highlighting the integral pieces; and I think people are really UNDERVALUING the compensatory pick I doubt this is as far off as several believe it to be. Some people posting what they think the Reds would demand might be right - they might demand it as a starting point, but to think that Alex Kirilloff would need to be included is a tad absurd. 6 years of Kirilloff for 3 of Castillo is a loss before you go any further. And the Reds would know that.

I think this is where we lose a bit in translation as fans. Categorizing Kirilloff as a guy with no games above AA is both true but also direly in need of context. He did spend the entire summer in St. Paul and got to hit and play simulated games at what was more or less a AAA level. All accounts of that time that I've read is that he was the best player there. We didn't get to see that or evaluate that, but the Twins did. I have no angst about the decision - they may still decide to manipulate service time. But I also don't see it as a stretch that he very well is the right guy for the job now.

I'd place the odds that Nick Gordon is DFA'd before ever playing an MLB game at 60/40 or better. I'm surprised at the number of people who think he's close.

Bundy is not good and isn't going to be good. This trade won't matter to either team.

I love posts like these. It's always fun to go through the thought exercise. I really don't think they'll do anything until they get 32 teams, and then they'll go to 4 divisions or (gasp!) 8 like the NFL. Regardless, my only criticism is that MLB would never, ever, ever break up the Cubs and the Cardinals. Literally a 0% chance that would happen.

As an NL fantasy baseball player, I've been a huge fan of Yates the past couple years. He's seriously good and worth consideration. Good writeup.

I don't disagree with the notion that as we have our core in place that we should pivot at least a little to longer term deals. I do think it was smart to stick to shorter commitment until you know what you have.

It just seems like we're looking at the same picture, but seeing two drastically different things. They have plenty of money to continue to develop guys, pay arbitration salaries and extend where it makes sense. They also have plenty of money to supplement through FA. They've done, in my opinion, an extremely good job setting up that payroll flexibility (at times too good, perhaps) and planned well for 2020 and beyond with conviction. You asked for a plan - I'm not sure entirely what you're looking for, but I'll try my best. They'll probably let Pineda, Castro and Reed walk which is $25 million in savings. Hughes comes off the books at $6M. Schoop probably walks too, but they might re-sign him. Let's count him in at the same salary, $7.5M. Let's say they sign Odorizzi or similar at $15M. Let's say they sign Gibson or similar at $10M. Arbitration raises for Sano, Parker, Buxton, Rogers, Adrianza, May, Berrios. They may decide to let Parker and Adrianza go (or even May) but let's say they keep them all. $28M ($4M/player) seems like more than is needed but let's go with that number. Mejia is Super 2 so that might be another $500K if they keep him. All that is only a $5M-$6M increase over this year. THAT'S IT. And yes, as young guys develop and perform well, they'll get expensive. That is true. That's why a development machine in the minors is so important. The new regime has seemed to invest in that machine so that we continue to develop the prospects we have. It all seems very planful, at least to me.

Not really. In fact, I see the opposite. I see plenty of foresight into how the Twins built this roster in the last couple of years. No long term deals, saving room for 2020 and beyond. Now that they have inked Kepler and Polanco to long term extensions, they still have less than $20M guaranteed for next year and less beyond that. If Buxton, Sano, Berrios, Rosario and more continue to produce and want to sign, the Twins will have plenty of $$ to do that.

In case anyone wants a national perspective, here's Jay Jaffe (tldr, he likes it and thinks the Twins got better). https://blogs.fangraphs.com/twins-add-wins-with-marwin-gonzalez/

Great article. And yes, Royce was rated as a 65 FV on the Fangraphs top 130 that came out today, so that will be exciting too. A fantastic top two for the Twins.

Awesome post.

Really nice article. Like beckmt says above, their ability over the last couple years to stockpile some minor league talent should lead to some ability to make trades to improve the big club. I hope that comes to fruition.

Thanks for doing the work, Mr. Brooks. I greatly prefer data to old, tired narratives. Let's say this clearly. Adding one of the best players in baseball to a team that is $30M below last year's payroll number and with nearly unlimited payroll flexibility in 2020 and beyond should be a no brainer. If there were an offer, Machado can still choose to sign it or not. There are two sides to the deal. But not even making an offer? Not believing he could help the team? Inexcusable for an MLB executive. I really, really hope they're seeing if they can make an end run at this.

Let's get back to the point of this post. A Machado offer. If you pay the man, he'll sign with the Twins. If it's not his dream destination, for whatever reason, you might have to pay a small premium. So let's accept that. We have no idea whether or not that's the case here, but let's assume it is. We also know they are well short of their 2018 payroll number for 2019 right now. We know they have virtually no money on the books for 2020 and beyond. And we know we could still use an upgrade in the middle infield. We know he has a 7 year deal on the table with AAV of $25M. So how about a 4 year deal that beats the record AAV (currently 34M)? 4 years, $140M. $35M AAV. I'd put it on the table and dare Machado to walk away.

Dude....Guaranteed Rate Field is 4 miles south of downtown and Wrigley Field is 7 miles north of downtown. I'm skeptical that the climate differences are as big as you seem to be suggesting.

I think this is a very real possibility. And one I think could work. I just think they're close enough that spending some money to provide options is the most prudent path forward.

I don't disagree with much of what you say. Don't misunderstand my arguments to be of the same ilk at the CHEAP POHLADZ crowd. Spending money on free agents is far from the most important thing you can do to build a contender. What I will say though is that on paper, right now, the Twins will likely by a ~83 win team when PECOTA is released by Baseball Prospectus. The marginal value of adding 5-6 wins for the Twins is higher than it is for most teams in the league. They should be making bets to get those wins. Those bets might be expensive, they might not be. They have PLENTY of money to go out and make the moves they believe raise their projections to 88 wins. I'd advise against locking into long term deals given the current young core, but $$ shouldn't be a primary door-closer.

Hmm.....I kind of hate using WAR to evaluate single seasons of relief pitchers, but if that's what we're doing, I still think it's impossible to draw any sort of conclusion from all this data. And it's good data, but it's not information. How does average WAR for highest AAV compare to the lowest AAV? And the middle tier(s)? How should a team be spending its money? And how would the marginal dollars be spent differently (or would they be spent at all)? While the research and data is appreciated and impressive, I don't think any of this gets us much closer to answering those questions.

Yeah, the thing is, I truly have no idea. But it fits my script of what I want, getting the most talented guys regardless of experience, and looking to the college ranks. I'm cautiously optimistic. I really am loving what I'm reading about Wes. As with everything, however, we shall see.

I don't think the issue is the AAV so much as the contract length. If Dozier would do 3/75 I think the Twins would do it. But locking him up for 5 years starts to have an impact on the core of youngsters. I hope something happens to keep him here, but I guess I'm not too optimistic it will happen.

If Phil Hughes can't stick, I wonder if the Twins outright release him. Would be an expensive pill to swallow, but not sure what options they'll have other than if he suffers another season-ending injury.