LyleCole

Obviously, since I was referring to the draft I meant they do not prioritize catching in the draft. If you look at the entire front office tenure since 2017 they have used very little draft resources at the position. Their draft model for the position seems to be to find an athletic catcher that can play other positions with reasonable hit tool or just draft backup quality college catching. They have drafted only two catchers in the top 7 rounds since 2017: Ryan Jeffers a hit first guy who became a better catcher and Diaw. Here is the draft year and the round they selected a catcher 2017 17, 21, 37, 38 2018 2nd (Jeffers), 8, 13, 25, 28 2019 29th, 38, 39 2020 None 2021 8th, 9th 2022 11th 12th 2023 None 2024 3rd (Diaw) 2025 none

On the current roster, I would sell everyone except Buxton, Lewis, Lopez, Duran, and Ryan. Probably Ober too because with his 2025 his value is probably too low and we are better off just holding that card. Castro, Larnach, Jeffers, France, Paddock. If another team wanted them we should make the move. If the front office does not realize we are sellers and not contenders, they are out of the loop.

I would say the Twins did a couple of things I thought were changeups from previous drafts. 1. We drafted way fewer college seniors than we seemed to draft in previous drafts. In 2025 we selected only 2 college seniors and they were late round picks (18th and 19th round). This means in the draft slotted rounds we did not take a senior NCAA player who normally are signed to lower slot values. In 2024 we drafted 5 (5th, 10th rounds). In 2023 we drafted 4 (7th round). In 2022 we drafted 5 (4th, 7th, 8th, 10th, 11th). 2. We drafted 3 4 yr college sophomore eligibles including our 3rd and 7th round pick, along with 16th rounder. In 2024 we drafted 1 sophomore eligible, Merit Jones who we redrafted in 2025. IN 2023 we did not draft a single sophomore eligible. In 2022 we drafted one, Tanner Schobel who was our 3rd round pick. So we selected more in 2025 than previous 3 drafts combined. 3. This is just a casual obervation, but it also seemed to me that in the 2025 draft the Twins selected their players much more to what the different rating consensus was. If you use MLB draft prospect ratings, the Twins selected their first 7 players within range of how MLB rated them. In 2024 their 4th and 5th round players were not even rated in the top 250, and Diaw their 3rd rounder was rated much lower. And this is the pattern in the 2023 and 2022 drafts. I am not sure what the explanation, if any, for why they did not draft 4th years seniors, although the higher number in 2022 was probably due to the covid years. Just some thoughts.

They seem to have spent the last couple of drafts/signings sticking their system with almost catchers. They drafted Diaw in the 3rd round last season and he is hitting pretty well in Cedar Rapids. He is a catcher (25 games) and OF (10 games). They have Ricardo Olivar in Wichita and he is hitting pretty well. He is a catcher (28 games) OF (18 games) and DH (20 games). AA also has 2022 draft picks Andrew Cossetti and Noah Baez who are more traditional catchers. 2021 draft pick Noah Cardenas is in AAA.alog with Jair Camargo. While with the exception of Diaw I don't think we have much talent in the minors at this position, they have catchers enough to fill the minor league rosters. This does not seem to be a position that the Twins management prioritizes.

I am not as sold as some on this Twins draft and I think it is very questionable overall. I am not sold on the first round pick Marek Houston. I think the defense projects but there has to be significant questions on his hit tool. I mentioned in a comment, out of 28 hits in the Cape Cod Summer League he only had 2 extra base hits, both doubles. His slugging percentage was under .350. IT is very hard to be an effective MLB player, even an advanced utility player, with that level of power. I said this in another comment, but I think people are overstating his floor by a wide margin. I really like the concept of Riley Quick and based on his raw pitch potential I am actually surprised he did not get drafted well before pick 36. He seems like a pitcher that could advance through the system quickly except for the fact he has had arm troubles which will create a more cautious approach and that the sum of his pitches against live batters is much less than the raw effectiveness of the individual pitches which suggest command issues. I know he has starter potential but I wonder if they should move him to the bullpen like Jesse Crain to reduce the wear on his arm and concentrate on being a total fastball-slider with only mixed in change and lower pitch counts per outing. The last pick I really know anything about is Q Young. You can describe this pick as a major "hit or miss", but in the end that is what his professional baseball career will come down to. There is one hell of a lot of swing and miss in that hitting profile, and that is against much lower level competition and much less effective offspeed and breaking pitches. THis is the case with a lot of these young hitters and I think it is the most difficult thing for a young hitter to learn. Expect huge strike out percentages that will continue to climb as he moves up competition level.

Professional pitchers are just going to throw fastball strikes against him because he can't do much damage to them.

Yeah, true. But in the big leagues if you do not have power it is tough to advance. Pitchers do not have to worry about you being dangerous. I get the 15 home runs (11 at home) last season, but if you look at his Cape Cod wooden bat stats he only had a .329 slugging percentage. He had 26 hits for Bourne on the Cape, but just 2 doubles as the totality of his extra base power. An extra base hit percentage of 7.6% is pretty weak contact and while he had 28 walks on the cape and a .465 OBP, advanced professional pitchers are not going to walk him no matter how much plate discipline he has. You never know what is going ot happen with these prospects but I think the talk of his high floor is a bit much to tell you the truth. MLB gave Marek a 50 hit and 45 power but I think they are way overstating it to tell you the truth. A 35 power is more accurate and I just fear his hit rating just will not transfer to higher levels of pitching he will see in professional baseball. I think his floor is a poor man's Mark Belanger. I hope I am wrong and other hitters, Dozier being the best example, have developed pull side power as they matured. WHile I think some of the claims on his defense are a bit overstated too, I hope he can develop into a guy with a decent OBP and a solid MLB level shortstop in the field.

Riley was picked because he represents a chance to win every bench clearing brawl. But good power stuff that just needs command.

Boston took the guy I wanted.

Interesting selection to me since they drafted Culpepper, Debarge and Amick in the 2024 draft and Keaschall and Winokur (who they continue at SS) in the 2023 draft. Houston is probably the one true SS in that group, but it is an fully cluttred infield group in the minors now.

I would like to see the mock draft The Athletic presented with Oklahoma pitcher Kyson Witherspoon being selected at 16. That would be perfect. They have another college pitcher I would be interested in Santa Barbara Tyler Bremmer going 13th. Lot of high school and college middle infielders available in that range of the draft and my actual prediction of who they select is Georgia high school SS Daniel Pierce

I just don't see the trade value there, especially since Duran is still under team control. That is valuable to a team like Minnesota. I sort of have this view that if you trade a pitcher for prospects, the main centerpiece should be a pitching prospect coming back. The reason is pretty straightforward: if you trade a pitcher for a short stop prospect, and the prospect fails, you are missing out on two positions. Arjun Nimmala seems to have a lot of pop in his bat, but even with all of that he is only a .740 OPS guy in A+ ball and was a .790 OPS guy in A in 2024. Lots and lots of strikeouts. His career batting average in the minors is .234 and OBP .334. Just seems like a lot of issues here that will take a long time to develop. Maybe if the "overpay" is Nimmala and Yesavage, something I doubt the Jays would do, you could consider it. But that would just barely move the needle for me. Last thing, if you look at the system, and made that deal, who would be the future closer for this team if they ever became competitive?

The normal analysis should be that the Twins should be sellers. No matter where they sit right now, this is simply not a very good team. And 9 times out of 10 I would agree, and perhaps there are a couple of players that could move to open up spots for players like Emmanuel Rodriguez and perhaps give a look to some of the AA/AAA pitchers that have pitched well. But this is the 1 time that I don't. Maybe it isn't this season's fate, but I say lets run it back one more time and see if we can actually put together a healthy lineup for one damn time in this Twins' era. Buxton, Lewis, Correa, Wallner, Keaschall, Brooks Lee in the field. Lopes, Ryan, a healthy/bounceback Bailey Ober, and Johan as the closer. If those guys were healthy and they put it together they are a contender in 2026, especially if we give a shot to some of the prospects and they develop. But, in 2026, if it is still falling apart at the seams, sell and sell hard.

Well if your crowned anything it was a huge mistake. Joe Ryan wasn't DEVELOPED in the Twins system. He pitched a grand total of 2 games as a 25 year old in the Twins minor league system. He was "developed" in the Ray's system. Even with Ober's struggles this season, and he seems like a guy who is going to go on the 60 day disabled list, he is the one starting pitcher the Twins have developed on their rosterBut he is the only pitcher drafted in the Falvey era that has panned out. Historically, developing starting pitchers has been thin gruel for the Twins. Jose Berrios, drafted in 2012 is the next most recent starting pitcher drfted by the Twins that was successful as a starter and he was traded 4 years ago. Others are Kyle Gibson, drafted in 2009. Scott Baker drafted in 2003. Nick Blackburn drafted in 2001. Maybe Kevin Slowery, drafted in 2005. A wild card is Fransisco Liriano who was acquired in a trade but played A+ - AAA minors in Twins system. He was drafted in 2001 and came ot the Twins in 2004. And Matt Garza who was traded away. Think about this though. IN the 24 years since the Twins drafted Nick Blackburn, all of the starting pitchers they drafted, all of the signing bonus the paid, all of the first round draft picks in this century that were starters: Steven Waldrop, Matthew Fox, Jay Rainville, Matt Garza, Shooter Hunt, Kyle Gibson, Matthew Bashore, Alex WImmers, Hudson Boyd, Berrios, Kohl Steward, Tyler Jay, The Twins have been somewhat successful in turning starters into relievers like Glen Perkins and Taylor Rodgers, even Griffin Jax for that matter. But they have historically been very poor in developing starting pitchers from their own system.

The economic reason why sports teams are so valuable is the absolute favorable tax treatment they get from the amortization of the assets. It is hilarious that you wrongfully condemn the bill because it favors the rich (a very poor analysis that you allow partisans to undertake) especially since the tax provisions removed many of the deductions that rich tax payers enjoyed: reducing the SALT exclusions (which liberals from high tax states begged to increase) and limitations on mortgage deductions. Relative to their taxes paid, the lower income tax payers received much more benefit including the 12% tax rate, the massive increase in the standard deduction, and in the new bill "no taxes on tips" and "overtime" which are huge tax benefits given to the working class income groups. But then, you apparently complain about eliminating tax breaks for sports franchise owning billionaires. I totally favor the basis adjustments which corrects the massive giveaways to these owners.

With respect to the steroid and other PEDs, if the pitchers were 'roiding and the hitters were 'roiding it seems that there should be a cancellation of impact. Bonds. Clemons and most of the top players from that era should be in the HOF. For example, Pete Rose MUST BE in the Hall of Fame. His off field issues can be discussed but if we compare him to others in the Hall his conduct isnt as egregious as it seems. The sole criteria for being in the HOF should be being amongst the absolute best players of your era. It should not be some career stats players get over a long period of time like Don Sutton. Nor should it be because they are golden boys or match your political philosophy. I

My favorite non-star from the Twins lineup back in the 70s. Even though by the standards of the time I knew he was an effective player because he got on base and don't forget he was a versatile (but probably not great) positional player that played just about every position. One of the reasons I loved Bill James' analysis from the first time I read his material in 1982 was it laid out things I always suspected. Baseball people owe a huge debt to Bill James for opening up a whole new world in this game.

I strongly believe that the Twins need to make space on the roster and offensive depth chart for Emmanuel Rodriguez. The time is not for him and it isn't as if he is an 18 year old kid. He will be 22 years old at the start of the season. I think Larnach would be the extra man out and he might have some trade value but then they might want to keep him around for the inevitable injury to Buxton, Correa, or Lewis. OF Rodriguez-Buxton-Wallner (Castro) INF Miranda-Julien/Castro-Correa-Lee C Jeffers DH Royce Lewis 4th OF (if not traded) Trevor Larnach UT-Martin

Disappointing that injuries curtailed his career. I think his 2023 season, with a OPS+ of 116, was a very encouraging season for Kirilloff. Double digit home runs and .270 batting average and .348 OBP as a 25 year old player looked like a season he could build off of. I thought his walk rate and power would increase as he was more experienced. But the injuries were just devastating to his career. Even as a minor leaguer he missed an entire season (2017) and he only played 100 or more games in a single season of his professional baseball career. The injury issue has been a major problem for the Twins. Don;'t forget the devastating injury Jason Kubel had when he was tearing up the minor leagues, and the concussions that derailed MVP players like Joe Mauer and Justin Mourneau's career. (The 2010 season Mourneau was having before his concussion he was hitting .345 with a .437 OBP and .618 slugging..... ). In the modern world, I would love to see a season in which Buxton and Lewis were healthy the entire season... just once.

Except the local revenue value of Chicago is worth much more than the Twins. Local sports revenues in Minnesota are small relative to their market size.

I think the situation is a bit more complicated than this. 1. What do we really know about the players that were truly available at the deadline and the demands those teams were asking for them? We are making assumptions about the market and the Twins entry into that market. I think we were in a position that we had a lot of minor league players on the "untouchable" list (Jenkins, Keaschall, Lee) and probably overvalued other players like Festa and Varland to make any deals. 2. I think the Pohlads have been a notoriously cheap organization. We made the playoffs in the Mauer-Mourneau era, but that was usually because we won the least competitive division in MLB. But, I think another $10-15 million invested in those teams, relatively small dollars especially once we moved into Target Stadium, would have made the team true contenders. 3. Minnesota is a cheapskate sports state to begin with. Our owners have always hidden behind the "small market" claims, but in reality the entire state is essentially anti-sport. Our local advertising revenues are amongst the lowest in professional sports. One way I always demosntrate this is that Minnesota is by far the largest state that has only one D1 football program and one D1 basketball program. Iowa, a state with HALF the population has two D1 football teams and a DQ FCS football team, and three D1 basketball programs. Alabama, a state of comparable size has six D1 FBS football programs, 4 D1 FCS football programs, and ten D1 basketball programs. We still have not failed to make the playoffs, but it is rare that a late season addition really changes things around. And sometimes, even successful deadline trades look bad in the long run. In 1987, the Tigers made a deadline trade for a starting pitcher named Doyle Alexander. Alexander went 9-0 down the stretch with a 1.53 ERA helping the Tigers win their division by 2 games. But he went 0-2 against the Twins with a 10.00 ERA, and in the next two years with the Tigers he was a 88 ERA+ pitcher. The pitcher the Tigers gave up was a 20 year old 1985 22nd draft pick that had a 5.73 ERA in 1987. John Smoltz. More than the trade deadline, I think we just did not get enough pitching depth to start the season because of the payroll limitations. It also hurt that Duran was out and wasn't 100% effective. Girffin Jax and COle Sands were good. Alaca was decent. They lack a leftie in the bullpen and they cannot assume that some of these 32+ year old arms are going to be effective. Make a point to get a solid arm in the pen next season, then if Brock Stewart or some other player bounces back they will have great depth. But the Twins will most likely instead RELY on Brock Stewart to bounce back.

End of the minor league season, and one of the sad parts about that is considering the futures of some of the players in the system. At the lower end of the minors, they always have another step up to look forward to, but when you reach AAA level, for many players there is no more upward mobility. Looking at the Saints players by age: 24 years old Patric WInkel, Yunior Severino, Payton Ecles, Jair Camargo, Travis Adams, Christian MacLeod 25 years old Alex Isola, Maddux Houghton 26 years old Anthony Prato, Carson McCusker, Will Holland, Brent Headrick 27 year old Chris WIlliams, DaShawn Keirsey, Michael Helmon, Josh Winder To reach that level of baseball, you were almost always the best or amongst the best players on your team: little league, Babe Ruth, high school, VFW, college, even professional baseball. But that next step is a difficult one. I expect a few of these names to move organizations for new opportunities, and a few might have more AAA level time to play out. I simply wish them all the best.

Short term trends in baseball are essentially meaningless.

LOL. There is a strong tendency for players to revert to the mean. Christian Vazquez has been in the major leagues for 10 years. He has hit over 280 in 2 of those seasons (2017, 2020). He is a career 255 hitter with a lifetime 303 OBP. Moving him to the leadoff hitter based on this small in season sample would be foolish. But then, they led off a guy with a 294 OBP today.

Only a satirist would propose a hitter with a .257 OBP for the season and .303 for his career as the leadoff hitter. As Bill James, the father of all of the modern analytics demonstrated, the critical thing to scoring runs is to get runners on base, particularly the person who leads off the inning. THe best OBP players should be the leadoff hitter and the clean up hitter. The concept of having your best hitter bat 3rd I think is wrong even though most managers do it. James thought it should actually be the power hitter in the lineup that has a lot of strikeouts batting before your best hitter in the cleanup spot, That could generate a lot more good pitches to hit because they would not want to put runners on ahead of your best hitter. Also, your worst hitter should hit 8th, rather than 9th. The 9th hitter should be in position to set up the top of the order if they reach base. I think if I was doing a lineup for the Twins it would be Correa-MIranda-Buxton-Lewis-Wallner-Jeffers-Kepler-Larnach-Castro