LyleCole

I just don't see the trade value there, especially since Duran is still under team control. That is valuable to a team like Minnesota. I sort of have this view that if you trade a pitcher for prospects, the main centerpiece should be a pitching prospect coming back. The reason is pretty straightforward: if you trade a pitcher for a short stop prospect, and the prospect fails, you are missing out on two positions. Arjun Nimmala seems to have a lot of pop in his bat, but even with all of that he is only a .740 OPS guy in A+ ball and was a .790 OPS guy in A in 2024. Lots and lots of strikeouts. His career batting average in the minors is .234 and OBP .334. Just seems like a lot of issues here that will take a long time to develop. Maybe if the "overpay" is Nimmala and Yesavage, something I doubt the Jays would do, you could consider it. But that would just barely move the needle for me. Last thing, if you look at the system, and made that deal, who would be the future closer for this team if they ever became competitive?

The normal analysis should be that the Twins should be sellers. No matter where they sit right now, this is simply not a very good team. And 9 times out of 10 I would agree, and perhaps there are a couple of players that could move to open up spots for players like Emmanuel Rodriguez and perhaps give a look to some of the AA/AAA pitchers that have pitched well. But this is the 1 time that I don't. Maybe it isn't this season's fate, but I say lets run it back one more time and see if we can actually put together a healthy lineup for one damn time in this Twins' era. Buxton, Lewis, Correa, Wallner, Keaschall, Brooks Lee in the field. Lopes, Ryan, a healthy/bounceback Bailey Ober, and Johan as the closer. If those guys were healthy and they put it together they are a contender in 2026, especially if we give a shot to some of the prospects and they develop. But, in 2026, if it is still falling apart at the seams, sell and sell hard.

Well if your crowned anything it was a huge mistake. Joe Ryan wasn't DEVELOPED in the Twins system. He pitched a grand total of 2 games as a 25 year old in the Twins minor league system. He was "developed" in the Ray's system. Even with Ober's struggles this season, and he seems like a guy who is going to go on the 60 day disabled list, he is the one starting pitcher the Twins have developed on their rosterBut he is the only pitcher drafted in the Falvey era that has panned out. Historically, developing starting pitchers has been thin gruel for the Twins. Jose Berrios, drafted in 2012 is the next most recent starting pitcher drfted by the Twins that was successful as a starter and he was traded 4 years ago. Others are Kyle Gibson, drafted in 2009. Scott Baker drafted in 2003. Nick Blackburn drafted in 2001. Maybe Kevin Slowery, drafted in 2005. A wild card is Fransisco Liriano who was acquired in a trade but played A+ - AAA minors in Twins system. He was drafted in 2001 and came ot the Twins in 2004. And Matt Garza who was traded away. Think about this though. IN the 24 years since the Twins drafted Nick Blackburn, all of the starting pitchers they drafted, all of the signing bonus the paid, all of the first round draft picks in this century that were starters: Steven Waldrop, Matthew Fox, Jay Rainville, Matt Garza, Shooter Hunt, Kyle Gibson, Matthew Bashore, Alex WImmers, Hudson Boyd, Berrios, Kohl Steward, Tyler Jay, The Twins have been somewhat successful in turning starters into relievers like Glen Perkins and Taylor Rodgers, even Griffin Jax for that matter. But they have historically been very poor in developing starting pitchers from their own system.

The economic reason why sports teams are so valuable is the absolute favorable tax treatment they get from the amortization of the assets. It is hilarious that you wrongfully condemn the bill because it favors the rich (a very poor analysis that you allow partisans to undertake) especially since the tax provisions removed many of the deductions that rich tax payers enjoyed: reducing the SALT exclusions (which liberals from high tax states begged to increase) and limitations on mortgage deductions. Relative to their taxes paid, the lower income tax payers received much more benefit including the 12% tax rate, the massive increase in the standard deduction, and in the new bill "no taxes on tips" and "overtime" which are huge tax benefits given to the working class income groups. But then, you apparently complain about eliminating tax breaks for sports franchise owning billionaires. I totally favor the basis adjustments which corrects the massive giveaways to these owners.

With respect to the steroid and other PEDs, if the pitchers were 'roiding and the hitters were 'roiding it seems that there should be a cancellation of impact. Bonds. Clemons and most of the top players from that era should be in the HOF. For example, Pete Rose MUST BE in the Hall of Fame. His off field issues can be discussed but if we compare him to others in the Hall his conduct isnt as egregious as it seems. The sole criteria for being in the HOF should be being amongst the absolute best players of your era. It should not be some career stats players get over a long period of time like Don Sutton. Nor should it be because they are golden boys or match your political philosophy. I

My favorite non-star from the Twins lineup back in the 70s. Even though by the standards of the time I knew he was an effective player because he got on base and don't forget he was a versatile (but probably not great) positional player that played just about every position. One of the reasons I loved Bill James' analysis from the first time I read his material in 1982 was it laid out things I always suspected. Baseball people owe a huge debt to Bill James for opening up a whole new world in this game.

I strongly believe that the Twins need to make space on the roster and offensive depth chart for Emmanuel Rodriguez. The time is not for him and it isn't as if he is an 18 year old kid. He will be 22 years old at the start of the season. I think Larnach would be the extra man out and he might have some trade value but then they might want to keep him around for the inevitable injury to Buxton, Correa, or Lewis. OF Rodriguez-Buxton-Wallner (Castro) INF Miranda-Julien/Castro-Correa-Lee C Jeffers DH Royce Lewis 4th OF (if not traded) Trevor Larnach UT-Martin

Disappointing that injuries curtailed his career. I think his 2023 season, with a OPS+ of 116, was a very encouraging season for Kirilloff. Double digit home runs and .270 batting average and .348 OBP as a 25 year old player looked like a season he could build off of. I thought his walk rate and power would increase as he was more experienced. But the injuries were just devastating to his career. Even as a minor leaguer he missed an entire season (2017) and he only played 100 or more games in a single season of his professional baseball career. The injury issue has been a major problem for the Twins. Don;'t forget the devastating injury Jason Kubel had when he was tearing up the minor leagues, and the concussions that derailed MVP players like Joe Mauer and Justin Mourneau's career. (The 2010 season Mourneau was having before his concussion he was hitting .345 with a .437 OBP and .618 slugging..... ). In the modern world, I would love to see a season in which Buxton and Lewis were healthy the entire season... just once.

Except the local revenue value of Chicago is worth much more than the Twins. Local sports revenues in Minnesota are small relative to their market size.

I think the situation is a bit more complicated than this. 1. What do we really know about the players that were truly available at the deadline and the demands those teams were asking for them? We are making assumptions about the market and the Twins entry into that market. I think we were in a position that we had a lot of minor league players on the "untouchable" list (Jenkins, Keaschall, Lee) and probably overvalued other players like Festa and Varland to make any deals. 2. I think the Pohlads have been a notoriously cheap organization. We made the playoffs in the Mauer-Mourneau era, but that was usually because we won the least competitive division in MLB. But, I think another $10-15 million invested in those teams, relatively small dollars especially once we moved into Target Stadium, would have made the team true contenders. 3. Minnesota is a cheapskate sports state to begin with. Our owners have always hidden behind the "small market" claims, but in reality the entire state is essentially anti-sport. Our local advertising revenues are amongst the lowest in professional sports. One way I always demosntrate this is that Minnesota is by far the largest state that has only one D1 football program and one D1 basketball program. Iowa, a state with HALF the population has two D1 football teams and a DQ FCS football team, and three D1 basketball programs. Alabama, a state of comparable size has six D1 FBS football programs, 4 D1 FCS football programs, and ten D1 basketball programs. We still have not failed to make the playoffs, but it is rare that a late season addition really changes things around. And sometimes, even successful deadline trades look bad in the long run. In 1987, the Tigers made a deadline trade for a starting pitcher named Doyle Alexander. Alexander went 9-0 down the stretch with a 1.53 ERA helping the Tigers win their division by 2 games. But he went 0-2 against the Twins with a 10.00 ERA, and in the next two years with the Tigers he was a 88 ERA+ pitcher. The pitcher the Tigers gave up was a 20 year old 1985 22nd draft pick that had a 5.73 ERA in 1987. John Smoltz. More than the trade deadline, I think we just did not get enough pitching depth to start the season because of the payroll limitations. It also hurt that Duran was out and wasn't 100% effective. Girffin Jax and COle Sands were good. Alaca was decent. They lack a leftie in the bullpen and they cannot assume that some of these 32+ year old arms are going to be effective. Make a point to get a solid arm in the pen next season, then if Brock Stewart or some other player bounces back they will have great depth. But the Twins will most likely instead RELY on Brock Stewart to bounce back.

End of the minor league season, and one of the sad parts about that is considering the futures of some of the players in the system. At the lower end of the minors, they always have another step up to look forward to, but when you reach AAA level, for many players there is no more upward mobility. Looking at the Saints players by age: 24 years old Patric WInkel, Yunior Severino, Payton Ecles, Jair Camargo, Travis Adams, Christian MacLeod 25 years old Alex Isola, Maddux Houghton 26 years old Anthony Prato, Carson McCusker, Will Holland, Brent Headrick 27 year old Chris WIlliams, DaShawn Keirsey, Michael Helmon, Josh Winder To reach that level of baseball, you were almost always the best or amongst the best players on your team: little league, Babe Ruth, high school, VFW, college, even professional baseball. But that next step is a difficult one. I expect a few of these names to move organizations for new opportunities, and a few might have more AAA level time to play out. I simply wish them all the best.

Short term trends in baseball are essentially meaningless.

LOL. There is a strong tendency for players to revert to the mean. Christian Vazquez has been in the major leagues for 10 years. He has hit over 280 in 2 of those seasons (2017, 2020). He is a career 255 hitter with a lifetime 303 OBP. Moving him to the leadoff hitter based on this small in season sample would be foolish. But then, they led off a guy with a 294 OBP today.

Only a satirist would propose a hitter with a .257 OBP for the season and .303 for his career as the leadoff hitter. As Bill James, the father of all of the modern analytics demonstrated, the critical thing to scoring runs is to get runners on base, particularly the person who leads off the inning. THe best OBP players should be the leadoff hitter and the clean up hitter. The concept of having your best hitter bat 3rd I think is wrong even though most managers do it. James thought it should actually be the power hitter in the lineup that has a lot of strikeouts batting before your best hitter in the cleanup spot, That could generate a lot more good pitches to hit because they would not want to put runners on ahead of your best hitter. Also, your worst hitter should hit 8th, rather than 9th. The 9th hitter should be in position to set up the top of the order if they reach base. I think if I was doing a lineup for the Twins it would be Correa-MIranda-Buxton-Lewis-Wallner-Jeffers-Kepler-Larnach-Castro

One suggestion I would have for the Twins is Trevor Bauer. He is pitching in Mexico and seems to still have his stuff from video I have seen and the statistics, including a 19 strikeout game. I don't know what his contract situation is in Mexico, but bring him in on a AAA contract.

1. Emmanuel Rodriguez I have him ahead of Jenkins because of proven performance. A career .940 OPS who mixes hit, power, and speed. 2. Walker Jenkins #5 overall pick in a stacked draft, he could have more power upside than Rodriquez with a solid projected floor for a 19 year old. 3. Luke Keaschall This guy has professional hitter written all over him. Might be a bit aggressively ranked because I don't think all of the power will follow him to the MLB level, but the OBP should. 4. Kaelen Culpepper Most recent first round pick. This ranking is assuming he shows he can stay at SS, eliminates his chase, and shows he has a bit more power than anticipated. 5. Brandon Winokur Another 19 year old who is holding his own in professional baseball. Probably more slated for corner OF than SS he is playing, but he has the potential to leverage his great size to be a solid hitter. 6. Charlee Soto Going from young to younger. The 2023 draft is well represented on this list. Soto has the raw stuff to be an ace, but at just 18 years old there is still a lot of development. 7. Zebby Matthews One of the college group of 2022 draft college arms (Matthews 8th, Connor Prielepp 2nd Morris 4th, Kyle Jones 7th, Cory Lewis 9th, CJ Culpepper 13th). Matthews has improved his velocity and in the early break from the gate is in the lead. 8. Marco Raya Based on age and stuff, ranks here and ahead of Festa and other pitchers. Aggressively pushed to AA at age 20 he seems to have hit a bit of a wall there. While he is holding his K/9 level his BB/9 almost doubles at the AA level. Plus, while they have been uncharacteristic aggressive in promoting Raya, they are incredibly conservative in usage. Raya has averages only 3 innings per start in his career and has pitcher only 154 innings to date. 9. Andrew Morris In the horse race to the big leagues, Morris is stride for stride with Zebby Matthews and there is no guarantee which will reach the big leagues first (and there are still dark horses in that race if they can get back healthy). 10. David Festa Solid stuff, but it appears to me that the results do not match the potential.

It also has other features that make it unlike all of the other drafts that make the selections somewhat strange. MLB draft is the only professional draft in which trading draft picks (with the exception of the limited trades they allowed in recent years) isn't allowed. MLB draft is also the only draft that selects high school age players without any draft right follow on. And, it is the only draft in which there is an explicit draft pool so it isn't just the signability of the player it is fitting that signing into the cumulative draft pool. I personally believe that the draft rules should be constructed so that the best players are selected first. I would allow teams to trade draft picks just like all of the other professional sports. That means if a team has a potential problem with signing a draft pick (especially at the top of the draft) they can trade the pick and get extra compensation rather than being forced to select another player. I would return to the draft and follow rules so a team can sign a player they drafted up to the next draft at a minimum. I would consider allowing a team that drafts a high school player to retain the draft rights of that pick until the next draft cycle that player is eligible (junior year if player goes to college).

Perhaps. But it isn't necessarily worrying it is questioning the draft strategy.

Again, you can only play one 3B per game, and these guys are limited defensively to 3B, 1B and then DH. IF they all are great picks, then great. But that is not likely and I would much, much , much prefer that we develop 3 MLB starting level players at 3 different positions than 3 of the same.....

If Lee and Lewis are gone in 3-4 years, I have no interest in being a fan of this team. And while it is "great" to have multiple MLB starting caliber prospects for a position, it actually creates difficulties in developing them and maximizing the value of the prospect.

The problem is they have to play somewhere. From what I have Culpepper might have plus fielding potential as a 3B, but the other two are more limited on the defensive spectrum. There is the additional problem that somewhere these prospects bump up against players like Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis and even Jose Miranda.

What I don't understand is selecting three college infielders with consecutive picks that are all kind of 3B types. I am sure they have their own projection plans that they know better such as converting a player like Amick to corner OF or even 1B. I don't think that baseball drafts should be based on "needs", but I think they have a slew of college pitchers like Zebby Matthews and Andrew Morris in the AA and A+ levels to want to use any of their top 69 on that "demographic" (a new term I dislike). On the other hand, the Twins system really lacks younger pitching talent outside of Soto and Raya so I like the pick of Dasan Hill and I would look to finding some other HS pitchers in the next couple of rounds and concentrate my bonus pool on them to get them to sign.

I would go with Mike Sirota, OF Northeastern with next pick.

I am sure there are more college SS/3B left to draft......

Billy Amick is a Twins type of pick.