Western SD Fan

Just saw a report that Gerrit Cole has a right elbow issue and may miss time. Maybe a good time to see if the Yankees are willing to trade for Paddack.

Here's a question to the intelligence of the group here on Rule 5 for Castellano. I'm not suggesting that he is hurt right out of spring training. I'm asking if he suffers a lengthy injury and lands on the 60-day IL which would allow the Twins to take him off the 40-man? Or does he have to stay on the 40-man regardless of injury or be offered back? I'm not wishing ill will upon him. Just curious what the rules are on injury.

One part that I haven't heard anyone discuss as of yet is that this is also a tryout for Ty France for potentially signing with other teams. Stranger things have happened than the FO bringing in some competition for the younger players to motivate them to secure the job. We have all seen a player that seems to have an excellent spring but still doesn't make the team. Considering this is not a guaranteed contract, France basically gets the workout of a spring training and an audition for another team in case he doesn't make the current roster.

I live in Western South Dakota that carried both Rockies and Twins on Fubo. I found the pre and post-game adequate enough to catch me up on what is going on, especially since I only followed them on Twins off days (Twins broadcasts first!). They covered the upcoming matchup, yesterday's matchup, tomorrow's matchup, and their next broadcast. Essentially everything I needed to watch the game that day. There will be time to record player profiles and more human-interest stories for things like rain delays or postponements if an affiliate is not playing at the moment. I will admit that the production was definitely more simplistic in nature, but it got the job done and I was happy watching Rockies games.

This smells like Logan Morrison all over again. We feel like we needed to fill a spot and one was filled.

One piece of information about PECOTA that would be useful to know. PECOTA was originally designed by Nate Silver (remember FiveThirtyEight, political predictions?). Now that I know that tidbit of information, I have no faith in this model as my first assumption is that it will be as far off as anything Nate Silver has ever developed.

I agree that something needs to be done, but I'm not sure what it is the best appropriate action. I'll go through by subject on things that I see and some changes that could be made. I'm not sure how this would affect the players and/or what concessions will need to be given to the players to get these though. Deferrals: This seems to be a large contention point at the moment. If I am reading Sportrac correctly, deferred contracts like Ohtani's are recalculated in full when calculating the luxury tax. I'm unsure I want to take this tool away from the players as this is more of a personal income tax move that benefits the player more than it does the organization, especially if the full amount is still be used to calculate the luxury tax. Luxury Tax: While we are on the topic, there are some tweaks to this that can be addressed. I believe some of the other teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Mets) abuse this system by paying a low luxury tax percentage the first year, a slightly higher amount the second year, then skirt just under the tax threshold the third year so the luxury tax penalties reset. This should be tweaked to a rolling average of 3 in 5 or 4 of 5 years in order to trigger the more rigorous luxury tax penalties. The concession to the players should be a luxury floor as well where if teams continue to abuse the floor, a percentage of their revenue sharing should be taken away as well. Revenue sharing should be used for player salaries. International Revenues: Another issue has been that there is a significant advantage in revenues from players, specifically Japanese players, generate 10s to 100s of millions of dollars to an individual team by signing up for networks like Sportsnet LA, YES, or Marquee for examples. One tweak that could be made is that 100% of these international subscriptions should be the property of MLB and distributed to all 30 teams in addition to 48% the domestic TV revenues. I don't know how much money this amounts to, but it would help reduce the vicious circle of paying for international superstars and essentially funding it by international subscriptions. Tickets and merchandise sales should stay 100% with the club. Others: Per McKibbin's article, which was linked above and definitely encourage to go read it, the Dodgers currently are exploiting a loophole which was specifically created for them at a time when they needed it. They don't need it now and it needs to be closed. Other penalties which can be addressed may be instead of dropping a team's position by 10 spots, just straight up taking away the draft pick. Removing a team's international pool money could be another penalty. Finally, unfortunately none of these ideas will actually help the Twins in the near or distant future. We currently don't spend enough to attract the best talent consistently nor do we spend so little that an additional fusion of revenue sharing will actually help. I would like to see more guardrails put into place so that all revenue sharing should be required to be used for payroll.

Using Baseball Reference, I note that he was used in multiple innings 23 times and at least 2 innings 13 of those times. He was the stretch guy that helped bridge the bullpen between the starter and the back end of the bullpen. I believe Sands and Varland can become those workhorses that the bullpen needs to keep the game within reach and should be left there. They may not make the "starter" money, but they will likely have a job longer than the starter they could become.

I know many of us, me included, have been dreaming of what a new ownership group would look like and can do for the organization. I'm not so sure that even new owners would increase spending in the short term, due to the CBA expiring after the 2026 season. Rumors I have been reading throughout the sport has been there is an uneasiness as this date approaches and MLB owners are willing to lockout the players to control spending, especially the Dodgers. I am not trying to have that debate at the moment but expressing the concern that even a new ownership may not want to expand payroll with a chance to lose money within the first 5 years of ownership.

I don't understand what all of the controversy is about. We know that Buxton will start the season as CF, but will likely play anywhere from 90-110 games, which leaves some options open. Buxton and Castro won't have to play much spring training to be ready to go from a fielding perspective. That leaves plenty of spring training time for finding a backup for Buxton and improve on the skills necessary to play CF, which to me is what spring training is ultimately for. It sounds like they want to give Martin as many reps as they can to prove that he can be capable at the position. Martin should still be pushed in spring training by Keaschall, Keirsey, E-Rod, or anyone else in the organization capable of playing CF. Even if you believe there are better prospects, developing him into a capable CF will still be a bonus as a potential trade piece, especially if he becomes a plus defender.

Here's a couple of things that I don't see anyone discussing that I believe need to be considered: AJ Preller is a wheeler/dealer. He has not been scared of prospects in the past and uses them basically as trade chips to try to improve his team in the present. If Preller identifies prospects that he believes he can flip right away, I believe he will take prospects as part of a trade. As an organization, we should be thinking a little more short-term considering all of the rumblings of a lockout after the 2026 season. From what is being reported, the majority of owners want some form of a salary cap and are willing to risk a shutdown to get some concessions. We saw first-hand the effects of what happens to our prospects in the minors when there was a shutdown during the Covid year and a lockout where they cannot graduate to the majors would have the same effect. I'm not suggesting that we sell the entire farm system to go for it. We are not that kind of organization and need to stay the course, but sometimes the course picks up speed from time to time. One final bonus if we are able to acquire Cease or someone like him. If the season somehow goes haywire by the trade deadline, we can always trade Cease and still recover prospects or offer the QO and take the draft pick at the end of the season.

One point to consider, especially in regard to trading with the Rays, is they are currently in revenue and location hell. I follow Brodie Brazil on YT and he has been reporting about the mess with Tropicana Field and the new ballpark construction. TB has already signed an agreement with the Yankees to rent out Steinbrenner Field in Tampa for 2025 and there is no guarantee that they will even fix the Trop as it's estimated to cost $56 million. The Rays also have the same problem we do in terms of a TV contract with Diamond. All of this to say they may likely be a more competent version of the A's until the new stadium is completed and they will likely not want to take on any money or contracts as the revenue will just not be there to support it, even with revenue sharing payments. I'm not sure why no one has considered trading Dobnak. While he does not command much money ($3M), we are talking about not taking on Tonkin's salary ($1.5 - 2M) due to the fact he costs too much. We have enough pitching in STP to not need Dobnak as a spot starter. See if you can find someone willing to take a flier on him for cash considerations.

It's still the offseason for the Twins, right? Once Matt gets a staff underneath him and a general philosophy in place on how he wants to fix the hitting, why can't he work with the upper prospects to help deliver a new organizational message? Obviously, he's not going to do this during the season, but he could analyze these prospects and give them something to work on in the offseason. If we are talking about how AAA players like Kiersey Jr, Rodriguez, or Eeles are supposed to graduate and play in 2025, why wouldn't we want Matt to have an opinion on how they prepare for the next level. Again, that shouldn't be his main job, but to suggest that he can't have an opinion seems silly if we are expecting these prospects to make a difference on the team in the future. As for Cruz, I would love to see him as an assistant. He's not going to be running the hitting philosophy of the team, but his knowledge to help the young players when they are going through slumps, or to point out things with pitch recognition or how to defend the plate to cut down on the strikeouts looking. These are the small things that helps with BABIP and OPS that we could use some improvement on, especially if we want to face tougher pitching in the playoffs, or even the random left-hander. Until results improve, I still see Jamie Moyer coming out of retirement and being able to get Bartolo Colon-type innings with this lineup.

Kiriloff may come down to 40-man roster spots vs resigning him. We should tender him a contract, if my memory serves me right, we have had similar conversations about Larnach vs Wallner, where to put Miranda, and prior to that we were having discussions about Rooker vs Larnach. This is sometimes the problem when you draft the same type of player over and over again is that you get redundancies in the minors and when they finally graduate, there is no place to put them. It is just the sad state of affairs when we have to worry about less than 1% of payroll because it may cost too much to keep. With that being said, I'm not really passionate either way and no matter what is done, I'll probably support it as trying to better the team.

We always want to compare to the Guardians bullpen, but all of you have forgotten one important element to the comparison: Carl Willis vs. Pete Maki. Carl Willis is the master and until he retires, we will not be in the same league as him and that is nothing against Pete Maki as a coach. I would love to see the Twins sign a strong LH FA and then let Moran, Funderburk, and Headrick try to make the team as a second LH reliever. As for the bullpen order, it seems like the successful teams had a mid-leverage fireman that could get them out of an inning and also be used for an additional inning or two from the 4-6th inning. If this was a normal organization, resigning Theilbar may be alright. But I don't trust Baldelli or Maki with Theilbar and he will be used similar to this year and be a cop out to not signing a better LH reliever. FInally, we also need to figure out what to do with Paddack. Idk if he becomes that length fireman out of the bullpen or use him as a 5th starter. I'm sure he would be the 5th starter since Festa and Matthews have options, but I'm not sure he is better than either of them at this point.

IMO, the bullpen was the last part of the ship to sink. Early and at the end of the season, the tepid offense cost us more games than the bullpen as a whole. It is tough to blame a bullpen coughing up the game when you only score 3 runs or less. A bullpen is the NFL version of the game-manager quarterback. You expect them to manage the game and hopefully not cost you the game. The lack of pitchers able to go more than one inning of effective work was always troubling to me. Unfortunately, all we had in LH pitching were LOOGY's and could have been deployed that way. Then Rocco does what Rocco does bringing that LH for the next inning and was shockingly shelled. The FO/Ownership did not address a solid LH option all year and did not try for a starter when Ryan went down. As for 2025, Jax needs to stay in the bullpen. I can see why he wants to convert back to a starter as he sees free agency approaching and knows that even bad starters are given $10-$15 mil vs stud relievers getting in the $7-$11 mil range. A core of Duran, Jax, Sands, Alcala (if they don't abuse him like they did this year), Winder (?), maybe Varland as a fireman that can go 2-3 innings. Consider Topa and Stewart as one pitcher since that will probably be all you will get out of them. That is 7 of 9 bullpen guys. Go get 2 good lefties and that looks like a nice bullpen.

Appears from the rumors, there is already an ownership group led by Dave Stewart working on buying the White Sox. Idk if that means that he may relocate the White Sox to Oakland since Stewart is a big Oakland guy. Not likely in the interim since the Coliseum is in worse shape than Guaranteed Rate Field, but it might kick the Oakland area officials into gear about a new stadium if Stewart promises to move them. The one thing I can say about the Pohlads is that they are intentional, I don't believe they would have announced that the team is up for sale without discussing selling the team with a couple potential buyers. I agree with a lot of the posters here that adjusting the payroll won't entice or detract a buyer. I cannot imagine that a new owner would want all of the marketable players strip mined and traded off, especially since I don't believe they could get a fair value in return. One item I hope the new owners consider that I believe was poor planning was to attempt to establish an Upper Midwest Sports Network partially owned by the Twins. I think they could have partnered with Midco, who is 49% owned by Comcast (thus preventing this whole backlash of nobody being able to see the Twins this summer). Midco Sports has grown considerably and covers much of the sports in the Upper Midwest, currently including University of North Dakota and South Dakota football games, Summit League and Northern Sun Basketball. Expanding into MN wouldn't be hard to add NCHC Hockey (UND, St. Cloud State, MN-Duluth, Nebraska-Omaha, or maybe get to rebroadcast Golden Gopher hockey if the Big Ten Network isn't). Find a way to add NDSU, SDSU, and St. Thomas football and I think you could make a network work. Finally, Midco Sports could broadcast St. Paul Saints games and maybe even Cedar Rapids games, like Marquee does for their affiliates. This is my pipe dream and dreaming of a way to produce year-round revenue off of a locally owned RSN. Obviously, it needs a different model than the current ones, but just an idea.

As a subscriber who had both Rockies and Twins for years, the Rockies stayed on all cable and satellite channels this year even with the possibility of streaming through MLB.TV. I also see now that they are finally agreeing to streaming in-market, they moved me to out of market. Oh, the $1.000's of dollars I could have saved if they did this years ago. 🙂

According to Sportrac, we have an estimated payroll of $114,7 million before considering all of the pre-arb and arbitration players discussed above. I can immediately wipe off $18 million through buyouts of Margot and Farmer. Margot's buyout is paid by the Rays according to Sportrac, so there really is no reason to keep him. If we take the numbers presented in the article as accurate, that adds $33.2 million. We are already at $129.9 million for 16 players before we pay our pre-arb players and FA scrap heap signees. Let's assume we fill out our roster from our farm system or scrap heap signees making about $1 million each, which adds another 10 million, which we need to cut somehow to get back down to $130 million. This is where the FO needs to get creative. I agree with the suggestion that we sign and trade Castro. I really want him on the team, but he's unfortunately an expensive luxury when I could have had someone like Solano, who signed with SD for around the league minimum. I felt that Farmer was a luxury for this year's team even before his performance. Dobnak is earning $3 million to take a spot in St. Paul. It's clear that he has been passed up by Festa, Matthews, and SWR and needs to find a way to get rid of his salary likely through a trade. Another question would be how much do we have faith in Camargo? If so, maybe we can find a way to trade Vasquez and get rid of the $10 million on the books. Maybe we can sign Grandal for a $2-3 million contract. Those moves, if possible, clears $19.2 million and gives us a chance to sign some players to potentially upgrade our bench, bullpen, or even leave a little meat on the bone so we can make a deadline trade since it is apparent by this year's deadline that this payroll amount is a hard cap with no wiggle room.

Since there have been a few posts that claim that we don't bring stats to our criticisms, let me quote myself in an earlier post on this thread 🙃. Maybe Sportrac isn't an independent enough resource. Most of us that have been dedicated fans for years understand that a small/medium market team is going to have good years and rebuilding years, and payroll should reflect that. As @Fire Dan Gladden commented earlier, perception matters. Ownership had opportunities to show the fans their commitment to the team by spending some of the Bally contract they received or by making a more meaningful trade at the deadline when it was announced that qualified teams (I am assuming the Twins would have qualified) could receive up to $15 million to jump start the trading deadline. Ownership did virtually nothing. I see a lot of comments related to how Tampa Bay, Cleveland, KC, and Baltimore can compete with lower payrolls than the Twins. Some of us may have forgotten how many years that KC, Detroit, and Baltimore had spent in the wilderness before they finally came out of their respective rebuilds. I don't believe any of us who are realistic fans expect us to compete in payroll with the top dogs. We do expect that they don't hamstring the organization when there is a playoff window open. If ownership had come out after announcing their one-year deal with Bally and stated that they were going to give Falvey some "flexibility" in payroll to shore up our needs, I'm not sure we are having this much of a conversation, at least I wouldn't. As a small/medium market team, we have to hit on player development, scouting, coaching, and managing and spend when we have the opportunity to go for it. If not, then organizational changes need to be made or what is the purpose? Perception matters.

Any current media company, bank, or food production company would fit your mold here. I'm not here to argue the reasons why, just answering your question. As for the ownership, they have been the only constant since Target Field has opened in 2010. Again, if you refer to Sportrac for MLB payroll ranks since Target Field has opened (2011 is as far back as they go), you get the following ranks: Average: 18.43, Mode (common ranks): 17th, 19th, and 23rd, and Median: 19th. They have consistently operated in this range since the current FO has taken over and does not appear to change anytime soon. If I was a MN resident, I would be livid as ownership lowered payroll after 2012 and has been happy in the doldrums ever since even though MN taxpayers have to foot the bill after being promised a competitive team if only, they built them a new stadium. I, like many others on here at TD, were incredibly frustrated when ownership made a statement about "right-sizing" the payroll. At first, I was understanding since the Twins were potentially losing a significant part of their revenue in RSN money. I just watched a YT video from Brodie Brazil pointing out that an average of 23% of a team's revenue comes from this source. Given the cut in payroll, it almost looks like a similar amount. Then they resigned for Bally for somewhere between $40-$50 million (as estimated by sources). I once again had hope that they would spend some of the money they received for reupping with Bally, but no. They had another chance at the deadline when it was reported by MLB that they would allocate up to $15 million to teams to try to get some trades moving. While it is unknown how much the Twins would have received from this allocation, it's safe to say they could have done more than they did at the trade deadline and not hurt their own payroll allocation. There is definitely plenty of blame to go around for this year's collapse. The players didn't perform in the situations they needed to. The manager and coaching staff inexplicable decision making and clear lack of communication to the players when it was apparent that they were heading for a collapse. The FO failure to properly shop at the scratch and dent store of players. Ultimately, the buck stops at ownership who failed all of us by not giving us the tools to believe in this team and now the direction of the organization. We have all seen the letter penned by Diamondbacks ownership for the Jordan Montgomery signing and even Jerry Reinsdorf penned a letter to the White Sox fans taking some of the blame and promising to do better, and he is the most tone-deaf owner this side of John Fisher (maybe we have a new owner to claim that title 🫠). This response to the season is John Fisher-esque stating to his team's fans: "We tried". I tend to disagree.

This may all come down to what Santana is willing to take to resign. If it is reasonable, maybe you resign Santana with the possibility to trade him during the year for some pitching help. Even if Kirilloff comes back injured or not playable, you have Miranda, Julien, and likely Castro coming back to fill that spot. I'm assuming your infield will be Miranda (Santana and/or Kirilloff ), Julien (Lee), Correa, and Lewis with Castro filling in as the super utility man that he should be and not a regular starter. I would also like to see Lee start in St. Paul to get his confidence back up before coming back to the MLB club unless he really shows improvement in spring training that they can't keep him off the roster.

I had to take a little time off from commenting on this site not because of the fans but because the team left such a bitter taste that I just needed to decompress from the season for a few days. I've caught up with all of the articles and comments. With that being said, lets bomb this thread with everyone's favorite: Lies, damn lies, and statistics! Since we love analytics (insert sarcasm here), lets analyze Rocco's performance. Year Record Payroll (Rank)* Avg. Age (Rank)* PH AB's (Rank)** Platoon % (Rank)** Salary on IL (Rank)* Days on IL* 2019 101-61 125.2 (19) 27.3 (18) 66 (25) 59.7% (6) 28th 629 2020 36-24 59.7 (19) 29.5 (1) 28 (20) 62.1% (4) 8th 389 2021 73-89 121.4 (17) 28.5 (12) 97 (17) 55.5% (11) 20th 1,713 2022 78-84 150.4 (17) 27.0 (27) 104 (7) 52.9% (18) 12th 2,363 2023 87-75 156.1 (15) 28.8 (7) 162 (3) 56.3% (9) 13th 1,980 2024 82-80 131.0 (19) 28.5 (11) 134 (1) 62.5% (4) 11th 1,641 * taken from Sportrac **taken from Baseball Reference Note: Payroll rounded and in millions Comments from looking at this table. I attempt to analyze the number of roster permutations by the platoon %. I couldn't find a site to better rank the days on the IL so I had to settle for Salary on IL (supposing that the better players are getting paid more and that affects the on-field performance, obviously results may vary). I was surprised that 2019 was not an older team because I believed the narrative that Rocco didn't have to do much to manage this team. This team was by far the healthiest team we have had. Additionally, Derek Shelton and Mike Bell were probably better bench coaches than Jayce Tingler. Sadly enough, I believe this year with the juiced balls and the three true outcome approach doomed us into believing this was the future of baseball. When MLB adjusted rules for pitch clocks, three batter minimum, and larger bases to encourage stolen bases, we didn't adjust. As noted in different interviews with Lewis, Miranda, Lee, and Larnach, they tried to tweak their swings in the minors to encourage home runs and launch angle over average, hits, productive outs, or other fundamentals such as base running and bunting. Payroll has been a huge issue on here where ownership has cut the legs out of the FO from making the moves we needed to build a better team that could withstand the injury bug that seems to have plagued the Twins since 2021. 2023 looks like the outlier in spending and they seem to like to be somewhere between 17th - 19th. While ownership needs a share of the blame for not giving the FO the funds to build a better team, it also looks like the FO has not done a good job shopping in the scratch and dent section. Rocco seems like he really likes having the platoon advantage at any cost given his ranks in platoon % and PH AB's. We have seen this in the last couple of years where the opposing team would have an opener, and we completely upend our lineup when the bulk guy would come in. When we needed that pinch hitter late in the game, he wasn't there because he was already subbed out. Again, I was surprised that we were older than average the last two years given the number of rookies that we have had to depend on to get through the year. That probably says more about the age of our rookies when they join the team than the number of appearances rookies had to make. 2019 is looking more and more like an outlier. This could be due to better coaching (James Rowson, Wes Johnson, Derek Shelton), Nelson Cruz as a "player-coach", just being healthy: a common quote is the best ability is availability, no need to pinch hit as we had built massive leads, and finally outside forces liked juiced balls and rule changes to encourage pace of play and not just the three true outcomes. We all have been taught the age-old lesson of not putting all of your eggs in one basket. It seems that Rocco and Falvey have put too many eggs in the analytics baskets and cannot adjust to the changing landscape of timely hitting and stolen bases. And, as other posters have noted, did we know that Francona was available?!? If not, then Falvey should be fired. If we did, then Falvey should be fired for not taking a chance to upgrade managers!!! Just think if Tito could have convinced Carl Willis to come over from Cleveland and work with our pitching staff.

Ok. What do you think about the speculation of Jax wanting to be in the rotation? I think it would be a mistake but I’m curious of other’s opinions.

I actually heard booing on the TV when Martin jogged over to retrieve the double and let another run score.