Here's one thought that nobody has really addressed yet in terms of future planning, which starts with this upcoming trade deadline: a potential lockout of the players following the 2026 season. Think of it as a hurricane out in the Atlantic that we know nothing about its track, but we need to be cognizant of its potential impacts. At worst, you're looking at a 2027 season that could be shortened or cancelled. For the first time, MILB players are part of the MLBPA and its negotiations. It would be unlikely in the wake of a work stoppage that the minors continue to play games and players will continue to develop like they have in the past when there has been an MLB labor stoppage. One other thought would be the upcoming post-ASB schedule, 3 @ COL, 3 @ LAD, 3 v WAS, 3 v BOS. That's a reasonable schedule to go anywhere from 7-5 to 9-3 and now you're above .500 and likely within 3 games of the Wild Card.
With that thought in mind, here's where I think the August 1 roster should be and I love playing this like a bad Choose Your Own Adventure Novel. 🙂 As always, I reference my go-to on these matters: Sportrac's Multi-Year contract page here - Minnesota Twins Multi-Year Table
Option #1: Sell Hard - This means you've given up on 2025 AND 2026 and you're shooting for 2027 or maybe even 2028 and just trying not to be the White Sox or Rockies for the next two years. You trade all the usual suspects (Castro, Bader, Coulombe, Paddack, France, Vazquez (provided you can find a buyer, may have to sweeten the pot to get a taker), and possibly Topa since it's unlikely in this scenario you're picking up his $2M club option anyway. Then you sell anyone with potential value to pick up cheaper MLB players and/or prospects in AA or AAA since we want their ETA to be sometime in 2026 with the expectation of trying to compete in 2027 or 2028. This would include Ryan, Jax, Duran, and maybe even taking calls on Stewart and Larnach. I would have included Pablo Lopez here, but he is still on the IL and wouldn't be available by the trade deadline. If I sell everything that isn't nailed down on this list, I clear almost $48M in payroll for next year. This is of course before the remaining spots are filled by AAA players or trash heap pickups in the offseason, which will likely add another $20-30M in payroll for 2026. I do not see this as a likely scenario as this will kill any goodwill left with the fans and possibly lower the overall value of the team right when ownership is in the middle of negotiations to sell the team.
Option #2: Sell Little - You're still selling the usual suspects, but you're taking offers on most anyone, but they better be really good offers as you're planning on running some form of this team back next year. This may even include a conversation with Castro, Bader, or France that you really do like them and would like to take a chance at resigning them in the offseason, but you're still trading them. This is one of the more likely outcomes, but it will depend on how they come out of the gates post ASB.
Option #3: Do Nothing - Only thing I would add to this is they may do very little selling or buying in this scenario. Maybe you trade Castro because you're blown away by an offer and with Keaschall coming back, that provides you with the IF flexibility to trade him. Maybe you get a role player, say, a Keirsey Jr type player with better hitting skills that you could actually stick in the lineup. Maybe you still trade Paddack with the expectation the Matthews will be back before the deadline and Ober won't be too far behind (or vice versa). Either way, you're expecting to run this team back and you'll deal with the payroll issues in the offseason, maybe with a dream that the team will be sold by then. Given the FO tendencies and the upcoming post-ASB schedule, this seems to be the likeliest scenario, much to the chagrin of many of us in Twins Territory or on Twins Daily. This scenario also does the most to protect the value of the team while in negotiations of selling the team.
Option #4: Buy Baby Buy! - To borrow from the YouTuber UrinatingTree: We Gonta World Series! Let's buy for the upcoming stretch run with our high-end talent out there! Considering many of our arbitration players are on the wrong side of arbitration and without a class of prospects ready to graduate in the next year. I also do not think there are any potential players out there that will help this team make the kind of run we need to justify this scenario. This is an obvious one-word answer. NO. Even when we have been in a position to do this (2023), we haven't pulled the trigger with anything of substance. This is more unlikely than the burndown option I started with.