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Hawkeye Bean Counter

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Everything posted by Hawkeye Bean Counter

  1. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Between Jeffers and Vasquez yes Jeffers has the most value. We have 3 more years of control with Jeffers. Jeffers is a massive improvement in the lineup and has been pretty solid behind the plate. I think you ride Jeffers the next 3 years and see what happens. If he keeps putting up 3 WAR years, first that is very good for us performance wise, secondly I have been hitting hard on this topic a bit but I think the Twins will be more than willing to keep giving players the QO and letting them sign elsewhere for the additional draft picks. Yes they are just draft picks, but that is high level currency that can either improve your system, or flip for a short term upgrade for the team. Right now here are your possibilities 2024- Kepler (40-50%) 2025 - Polanco (20-30%) if we keep him would need a good healthy year on the field 2026 - Jeffers (30-40%) 2027 - Lopez, Duran, Ryan
  2. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    2 years 16 million ouch. No offense even last year I had minimal belief in Pagan. You need to put him in low pressure situations and if he isn't getting hitters to chase on out of the zone pitches he is largely ineffective. He is not a high pressure position reliever. More just a filler to get through innings in low pressure situations. That isn't a 16 million dollar reliever. Add in he is going to a bandbox for half of his games and I don't see this ending well. 2 years 9 million was his expected contract.
  3. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    interesting indeed.
  4. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    A #30 to #33 draft pick. You know a similar type pick that we used on Chase Petty that we were then able to flip for Sonny Gray. Yes draft Capital that can turn into prospects. Or may give the front office the ability to trade our Competitive Balance pick, the only pick that can be traded especially if we get another late round 1 pick. However, I would rather make 4 picks in the top 44 so picks and see what they can do. The more assets an organization has, A. It likely allows for a better product on the field B. Gives more options to maneuver whether trades or otherwise to fill organizational needs.
  5. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I know not rule 5 but would anyone take a flier on Austin Meadows. Either as a AAA signing or depth signing for the MLB club. We didn't do very well with the mental health on Lopez. However I think the Orioles just caught lightning in a bottle with him. Meadows has more talent than Lopez. Just curious what everyone thinks.
  6. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I anticipate a 130-135 range. I expect 1 decent signing but have no idea who or what that might be. So far a CF, or 1st baseman and maybe some relief help is the most likely spots for some signings. Plus I could see us taking on some salary with trading for a pitcher, but also trading away some salary as well. Too hard to tell at this point.
  7. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Front office has already said they want another Starter most likely in the trade market. However, it seems most teams want 6 starters going into the season. I could very well see Varland or Ober being number 6 and starting in AAA. You are not putting your best players in their spots but inevitably you will need another starter some point in the season. We need 6 viable starters and Varland easily is one of those. He is a #5 pitcher at worst which has value exemplified by what the Cardinals did with Lynn and Gibson. However, for the team he can be the #2 reliever for a long time in my opinion. Him and Duran would be an excellent 1, 2 punch and then can add in Jax as well. Most likely he stays in a starter roll and then I foresee him moving back to the bullpen if still having mediocre stats and we are in the hunt at the end of the season for the playoffs before he cements himself as a reliever. Thats my guess anyway before a long offseason and and even season for that matter.
  8. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I see Varland as a bulldog of an elite setup man. Otherwise at best he is probably a #3 starter. Value wise, a #3 starter is worth more, but personally I think he can be elite in the bullpen. It is too early in the offseason to say because we didn't resign Maeda or Gray (we were never gong to resign him), is showing how we are going to treat Varland. However I think they have stated they view him as a starter, so most likely he will move back unless the front office and Varland have had a talk in the offseason and agree the bullpen is the best spot for him. Even if he goes back to being a starter, I think sooner or later he will be back in the bullpen in the next year or two.
  9. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Mike I know he had bad luck before, but in the prior 3 years he had the lowest babip of any player. I didn't realize how bad his luck had been, but also how long it had lasted. Maybe he will go on a 3 year stretch of good luck 😉. We do have to acknowledge that he is likely getting some help from less shift. He will always be shifted but even 3 to 4 more singles raises the BA 10%. Kepler should be a .260/.330/.820 guy. His WAR the last 3 years is 2.1, 2.2, 2.9. He is also only had 1 year really below 2 (He was a 1 WAR, another year he did have 1.9 but not significant difference for this discussion). We like to downgrade players and look at their warts yet not really see how good they are. The war shows a player that is a 20 mil player consistently whether he is hitting or not. If he is hitting then he is an elite player. If he has 4 years of 2+ WAR I can guarantee he will be qualifying offer.
  10. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Tell me why the Twins would go hard after a player when they can get significant draft capital if they let him go? We signed our Ace in Pablo. We can fill in for a #2 with the trades as discussed here.
  11. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I still stand by a big trade likely involves 1 of Julien and Lee, I would trade Lee as you will likely get more value for him. I understand the defensive difference between the two players, I just think Julien can play respectable defense while having a better bat than Lee. Maybe I am wrong. This only happens if you are going after an elite pitcher with 2 or more years of control. I could also see Soto as a potential trade bait as well but beyond that, will just have to wait and see what they do. 1 of Polanco and Julien is likely traded. I really don't think Kepler gets traded this year. As to Vasquez, who knows. I think you just keep him as the backup and see if he bounces back. Catching is one of those positions where hitting seems to vary considerably. So we overpay a bit for a backup catcher, there is worse ways to spend that money and unless someone is going to give you close to the value of the contract I think you would have to eat too much salary to make the trade work or giving away a prospect as a sweetener.
  12. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Kepler hit at over a .290 clip for 3 straight months. Kepler has never done that before. That looks repeatable, and looks like more than just a small sample size. Yes maybe he would be able to string together 3 months again like that, but if strings together 5 months of .270 BA with a very respectable OPS that is definitely a 3 year 50+million contract. He is swinging much more frequently 50% of the time, and making contact earlier in counts on better quality pitches than trying to hit borderline strikes protecting the plate. Being aggressive at the plate can work and along with more confidence and less shift worked out well to end the season. Now maybe pitchers will begin to throw more junk early in counts against him. But if he lays off this you are getting into hitters counts and in even a better spot. Even with the more aggressive approach he wasn't striking out at a significantly higher rate. Just putting more balls in play with better contact, but not necessarily more power, the homer rate actually dipped a bit. He doubled his hits from the prior year to right field, 12 to 24. A mix of better contact and less shift. Kepler was well over a negative 1 war in the first 3 months. He pulled in well over a 4 WAR to end the season. You extrapolate that out and thats a hell of a player for a season. 8 WAR type player.
  13. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I believe on a 1 year deal he is worth closer to 23 to 25 million. A team is willing to go higher on a 1 year deal than a multi year deal. It is basically the strategy that Trevor Bauer took. It really comes down to what type of player is Kepler next year. If he just averages out last years statistics into this year he is well worth a qualifying offer. I personally think he figured something out so will likely be well worth the qualifying offer. If that is the case it will just come down to health.
  14. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I was thinking about this more lately. I could see Polanco being flipped, but if Kepler just performs the same as he did last year and averages his performance out (instead of poor spring hot late summer fall) he is easily a 3 to 4 year 20 million AAV player. That is another Qualifying offer pick. A team like the Yankees would not get that value if he were to leave they would need to resign, that also means they would have to give up a very good compensation to get him. We currently have an outfield that is currently not in a stable position. I think this team is big on accumulating as many "free assets" as they can, and the draft compensation from the qualifying picks will continue to be a big part of their strategy moving forward. Polanco right now unless he has a really strong year next year, just does not look like a player that would command a 50+ mill contract. Plus he is in the infield where we have a lot more depth.
  15. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Sounds like the cardinals may be putting on Steven Matz on the trade block as well.
  16. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Cardinals will likely be shipping off 1 to 2 outfielders if that is what you want to go after. Nothing exciting but its something that has been mentioned a bit.
  17. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    More than $50 million so should be between the first and second round. Before competitive balance but not sure on the prospect promotion for Arizona and Baltimore getting the rookie of the years.
  18. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    if he would have waited I think 4 and $100 would have been a possibility. The issue is I don't think he wants to pitch in the big markets after his New York experience.
  19. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I think the strategy is actual pretty decent. Will be a bit of a stop gap but still what they want to achieve. Gibson and Lynn are both pitchers that you can slot into your 4 and 5 spots. I think both Lynn and Gibson will perform slightly better than last year. Gibson getting out of the AL east and Lynn just had a rough year last year. Both are work horses and tend to avoid the IL. They are boring but excellent 4-5 options. They still need a #1 or #2 to pair with Gray but will likely go the trade market for that. They locked pitchers up before a frenzy as teams that lost out try to go to the 2nd and 3rd tier. The will have revamped their SP line up for not exorbitant dollars but reasonable. The issue is Lynn and Gibson are both 1 year stop gaps so will either give time for prospects to develop or be back in the FA market next year.
  20. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The expectations were for anywhere between 3 years 60 million and 3 years $72 million. To sign this early I would guess closer to that higher number. Cardinals were desperate for quality starting pitching.
  21. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The issue for an ace or a #2 for 1 year is the compensation. Most likely younger pitchers can be offered the QO and get draft compensation. In the Sonny Gray situation it worked out well because not only did you get great performance, but you can parlay that into another lottery ticket high school pitcher most likely similar to Petty. Then it is does Petty make it or the pick. However we have already accumulated nearly a 10 WAR from 2 years of Sonny. That is a huge amount to catch up on. Joe Ryan has given us 3.8 WAR in 2 1/2 seasons.
  22. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Or do the unthinkable and trade Correa. However I don't think thats likely especially with the no trade clause, just saying. I think his postseason did answer a lot of questions though and he had a healthy season which makes his contract seem pretty reasonable now.
  23. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    If you want to look purely at age due to him losing his 2020 season to Covid, fine that is your prerogative. Juliens second year of playing he played primarily in AA no different than Lee. If you want to look at small sample size though Julien did much better than Lee's in AAA in a similar amount of at bats. All I am saying is Julien was very much underrated coming up through the system and I think Lee is slightly overrated, but that he is a very good looking prospect and has a very very high floor. Lee has performed well at every level and I expect him to do very well in AAA this year. He will be a very solid major leaguer. There is nothing wrong with that. Julien has had a higher OPS and OBP at every level, whether you want to scoff at it or qualify it that is fine. The only major differentiator is Lee plays a premium position at SS and will likely be a 3rd baseman. The issue is we have Lewis there right now.
  24. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Mike, Lee is a great prospect and we were lucky to get him. However I would say the exact same thing about Julien. Both have a high trade value in the calculator, but I think Juliens bat will be better than Lee. That isn't anything to sneeze at, and maybe Lee will be better. When you look at their stats though they have followed the exact same trajectory and at similar levels at a similar age and Julien did better at each level. What does that say, its that there is bias in the rankings. What I am looking at is we don't have enough positions for all our infielders unless 1 moves to 1st or DH. I would be fine with having another great contact hitter on the team. I also recognize that one of the 2 is a likely trade candidate.
  25. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Julien has outperformed Lee at every level. I think he is pretty locked in. Add in his improvement on defense, unless the Twins are blown away with a deal, you don't trade away a top 10-11 obp and top 25 OPS player unless getting ample return back. Unless you think he will regress but he has been incredibly consistent moving up the levels. As he gains more name recognition he may start getting a few more of those close calls as well.
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