Hawkeye Bean Counter

You do have Julien and Holland (finally started looking like could make it to the big leagues this year before his tibia fracture) from the 2019 draft. Even still I fully agree with your assessment.

There was major questions how good of hitters were in the draft class, the expectation was prospects only up to about the #60 to #70 range were decent hitters then a pretty big drop off. So when the Twins continued to take a hitter heavy approach, I understood it as they went very heavy pitching wise last year but was curious how they would perform and look. For a game, and a single game, I think we can say that narrative was wrong. Those hitters looked like they belonged. We will see if it develops into anything more than that, but for now we she all be pretty pleased.

LOL you tend to be furious about a lot of things. We have the batters to compete. Pitching, you have the potential to have 3 strong SP going into the playoffs and a pretty deep pen. To me it looks like you have enough. Ryan is the one I get concerned how he would do in the bright lights. As long as we don't go into a tail spin to end the season it looks like a pretty successful season. We also have the 3rd highest percentage to get to the WS out of the AL teams.

Hall has taken a little longer to figure things out. However, he is starting to show signs of figuring it out. He has always been known at control pitcher with quality secondary pitches. The concern was always if he could increase the velocity. Now it does appear, his control has gone down this year as he has tried to increase velocity and quality of the stuff. Ultimately I think he will begin to get more comfortable, and his control will really begin to stand out similar to Andrew Morris. He is still one that I am going to keep an eye on, because he has the ability to take off like Morris has this year.

We will know in the next 2 weeks. Really need to sweep the Sox this weekend.

The quality of pitching was not good and the cost was high, and we needed to shed salary to take on a pitching contract. That is a pretty tough scenario. I do think we could have renegotiated with Flaherty and the high asking prices wouldn't have been as high as was earlier. However I am not sure this management would have been willing to take another risk on player that is dealing with a significant injury (bad back, has had 2 injections in a month). As I said in the run up we are likely better hanging on to what we have, and we seem to have enough depth of pitchers and hitters, to handle injuries as they come. I really hope we start to get healthy.

I think overall this is a lot more complicated than most fans are making this out to be. I do think Falvey and Levine have done a pretty good job, there have been some missteps, but overall very good outcomes. I do think they are struggling with the owners, which I will get into in a bit. I think the Pohlads are feeling the heat, its why when they got doxxed with their phone number, their was a pretty strong reaction and Falvey really tried to walk back anything regarding ownership. My feeling yesterday was this was really the beginning of the end for Falvey and Levine without a new contract. To me seems to be a very stupid decision by ownership if they do let them walk. But lets be clear, Falvey came from Cleveland where they are more financially constrained than us. Also the transition of switching from cable contracts to a streaming/local broadcast model is going to affect every organization. So unless you are going to a top 7-8 org., I am not sure there will be a significant different, plus they have built a very nice war chest of prospects and young players. Going to restart somewhere else with a much shorter leash and a tougher division than the AL Central isn't everything its cracked up to be. Ultimately we needed to trade Kepler to take on any pitching trade, and that went by the wayside when the Yankees pulled the trade on Flahrerty. I really think it was pretty close to a straight up trade with maybe a slight prospect from our end. Ultimately, am I disappointed with ownership. Yes, I was hoping for a 1 year reset on salaries, that we jumped way to high, due to the Correa opportunity. It appears to be more than that, but I also think it is a bit out of Ownerships hands as well. Now they have done a horrible job at PR and framing things and trying to look like they are doing their best to put a competitive foot forward. They have allowed the framing of this to be the ownership are tightwads. I'll be curious to see if new contracts are offered, if new contracts are accepted, or if there is a clean break and reset. For all those who have criticized the job Falvey and Levine have done, it can get much worse. Lets win this division and then see where everything breaks. Ultimately winning heals a lot of wounds, and if we win with our players without any big trade, we have more ammo for trades in the offseason when trades are much more balanced.

He signed a 32 million dollar contract as a poor defensive left fielder. I don't know, I think it really come down to his end of the season. He could push closer to 50 million on a 3 or 4 year deal due to the better defense if he gets hot down the stretch.

Thought this was an actual move LOL.

There is a possibility they can find something there, that is the one thing with relievers, you never know when things can suddenly click. Whether Thielbar, Jax, or Stewart. The Twins do seem to find value. Even still I am not highly optomistic and I think this may be very similar to a Floro situation last year.

Kepler is a very good right fielder, he is dependable, solid in the field and when his bat gets hot is one of the better outfielders in the game. There is still an outside shot he gets really hot the remainder of the year and the Twins can tag him hoping to get an additional 1st round pick. With the organizations allergy to increased payroll right now and Kepler just being good not great so far, this is not the most likely outcome, but still a possibility. I do wonder . . . Falvey said they had something in the works that effectively fell through. I am wondering if it did include in some format Kepler going to the Yankees for Cortez. It was pretty evident Cortez was on the block dependent on them getting Flaherty and that obviously fell through. What is weird is they went and got another SP and still didn't trade Cortez. Who knows what was going on there.

Yep its right . . . Ummm, you are saying you couldn't find anyone to trade Staumont to for a prospect in a sellers market?

if you are facing 2 lefties in the next 3 batters it isn't.

He fills a role, don't put him in leverage situations against righties, and he does pretty well. Wish we could have gotten a slightly higher quality reliever, and maybe they think they can tweak him. Jay Jackson from Toronto doesn't give me a lot of hope though 😉. Oh well lets see if they do anything else. Hey but no one can say they didn't make a trade at the deadline . . . LOL.

Eh, for what we paid, can be a useful piece in the bullpen. Really we didn't have that many holes. Unless something jumps out this is likely it as I suggested earlier. The prices were just too high to get much accomplished with a long term goal of competing year in and year out.

Since Tarik is divisional rival, and they don't have to trade, and there seems to be a massive premium this trade season, I think that calculator is a tad off. How about 4 of our top 6 prospects to get those 2 players. That is probably what you are looking at.

Now Baltimore getting Rogers.

I think Philly, Baltimore, Yankees and Dodgers would still be ranked higher. Even if they are all in the same grouping you are looking at no better than 20% shot at a WS. If you think this is the time to go all in fine. I just think you will have better opportunities to go all in, and likely in years where it is not an extreme sellers market.

What was the dodger salary that year? How good of a team were they? They were an elite teaming adding to it. If the Twins added a #1 pitcher and an elite reliever they would still not be the favorites to win the world series. That effectively is my point.

Similar to Kikuchi, I think the value of a pitcher who has potentially more stuff is going to be much more expensive than a SP like Fedde. Will know here shortly. Thinking we will stand pat.

Interdivisional trade, sounds like something very feasible chpettit. Deadline deals are generally overpay. Its offseason deals where you tend to get more equal value. Giving up Emma Fest and Raya, likely is hurting, but if you are going for it, you will need at least 1 more good reliever so giving up another top 7 prospect maybe more. I am also not sure Detroit would think those 3 are enough. They would probably want to swap Jenkins for Rodriguez. The theory is if you are going for it, you are probably trading for a #1 pitcher, very expensive, you are trading for an elite reliever, still costly, maybe uprgrading another reliever and possibly upgrading a bat. You would likely be giving up 5-6 of your top 10 prospects and a couple of you 10-20 prospects as well. Just look how much we gave for Mahle. So when looking at it from that front, yes you are using most of your ammo for mostly a 1 year increase in chances to get to the playoffs. Prospects are prospects, but who would have thought SWR would be providing the value he is to the team this year.

Pretty much if you get to the playoffs you have a 5% chance. So as much as yes you want to play silly games, I would like multiple chances at winning it all, than 1 slightly better chance in 1 year.

So would you rather have 1 option to win the WS in 5-6 yeas at maybe 20% probabilities, or 5-6 with 6-8% for each year. Going for it in 1 year, where you have to do massive overpays for minimal improvement is not a wise scenario. Now you can go the Braves route, where you get players that are struggling but have some pedigree and hope to catch lightning in a bottle. If trading Duran is heavily in their favor they will, but that means you need to find someone willing to massively overpay. Then the question is do they pivot and use resources to get another reliever and possibly another SP. Its all hypothetical at this point other than we know they are willing to listen to offers on Kepler and Duran.

The playoffs is ultimately catching lightning in a bottle, different strategies have worked, 2 elite pitchers, ok pitching good hitting, great bullpen ect. Looking at this team, you have right now would could be a very good bullpen, 2-3 solid to above average starting pitchers with SWR more than holding his own, and what could be a very good lineup with a lot of depth. Besides a lefty reliever, there is not an obvious hole. Ultimately you want as many shots to get to the playoffs, and hope things begin to break your way. I like the Braves approach of finding some cheap replacements without going all in from a couple years ago. Ultimately I want us to continue to have internal options to provide the depth we need. Trade values seem to be much better in the offseason. Which means if they were to trade Duran, it would likely be a trade heavily in the Twins favor, so ultimately I would not be too upset with it.

The issue is the Twins would be asking for salary as well, as they are unable to take on more salary, increasing the trade compensation, and risk.