Greggory Masterson

Haven't we done this before? Sweet Lou, Absentee Cody, and Ol Gregg are feeling the angst and so are you, so we read and reacted to YOUR gripes about the Twins, players wearing hoodies, and the term "DFA'd." They also recap the last 2 weeks of Twins baseball, trying to look for the bright spots, and speculate whether Big Dude Who Dings Dongs, Carson McCusker will get a shot soon. Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 Listen using iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-twins-off-daily-podcas-167548600/ Listen using Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/nvclbt0w Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@twinsdaily View full article

Because of this silly question I did some digging, and I believe that Baldelli has multiple options remaining but he reached five years of service time as a player so the discussion isn't worth having

Jose Miranda and Edouard Julien both started the season on the periphery of the Twins lineup. One of them has taken advantage of the opportunity early this season, retelling one of the oldest stories in the game. Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images It’s still far too early in the season to start talking definitively, and the Twins have a ton going on right now, but I think this is a notable enough development to write about. Edouard Julien and Jose Miranda came into 2025 with shockingly similar stories, and they’ve quickly embarked on diverging paths. Let’s actually start with where they differ. Although they both have a significant offensive shortcoming, they’re almost the complete opposite—to boil it down to its most basic form, Miranda needs to stop swinging so much, and Julien needs to swing more. "When an aggressive hitter gets even more aggressive, then there’s probably overaggressiveness," Rocco Baldelli said of Miranda on Sunday. "But he’s always gonna be a guy who’s gonna be looking to swing the bat. That’s just by nature, who he is and who he’s always been. It’s part of the good version of Jose Miranda, too. It’s a guy that when he gets a good pitch, he hammers it right away. He’s not gonna be up there waiting around, taking pitches in the zone that he thinks that he can barrel up. So I think finding a level of patience at the plate—that’s a relative term, when it comes to hitters. But no matter who you are, everyone has a point of passivity, and also overaggressiveness. So I think he just wants to do something so badly that he’s wanting to swing the bat before he knows what he’s swinging at." The only other big difference is that Julien has settled in at second base and Miranda is a third baseman, but even their defensive profiles share similarities: they’re both below average. Julien is at second base because his arm doesn't work anywhere else, and Miranda is at third because his range doesn't work anywhere else. Both could be said to profile long-term at first base, though the Twins seem squeamish to move either there. I mean, they signed Ty France for $1 million to move both off of the position. Both have also played a game at shortstop during blowouts in the last year, even. Both have had short stretches looking like significantly above-average big-league hitters, but both have had stretches where they’re unplayable. Both face uncertainty as to what sort of role they will fill this year, and the Twins face uncertainty over which version of each will be available to them this year. And both need to be the good versions of themselves, because they’re at risk of being pushed out of the infield picture entirely, with Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Carlos Correa, and Luke Keaschall all looking like potential mainstays on the dirt. They both made the Opening Day roster in reduced roles. Miranda was given the third base job only due to an injury to Lewis. Before that, the plan seemed to be that he would play some third, some first, and some DH, but instead, he got everyday consistency. Julien only got a spot on the roster at all because Lee began the year on the injured list. There was something of a position battle at second base this spring, and until his injury, most assumed Lee would get the job. I think that pretty well sets the scene. Julien didn’t play the first three games of the season, and although Miranda started those games at the hot corner, he batted eighth in all three games, slotting ahead of only Harrison Bader and Christian Vázquez. Admittedly, Julien was ill for those games, so it’s unclear what his usage would have looked like under better circumstances. But both have played quasi-regularly to this point in the season, forming a three-spots-for-two-men rotation with Bader (who starts in left when Trevor Larnach is the DH). Through the first 14 games of the season, they had received nearly identical playing time. Miranda had started eight games and played in 11, registering 35 plate appearances, compared to Julien’s 36 plate appearances, starting nine games and playing in 12. Miranda had a miserable .143 batting average and an OPS of .371 (over 80% lower than average). Julien had a more respectable, but not great, .273 average and .697 OPS—right around the league average. But then Saturday’s game happened. Julien started the 15th game of the season and registered a hit in two plate appearances, but he was lifted in the eighth inning for Miranda to face a lefty reliever. Miranda also got a hit, but he was then tagged out in one of the more boneheaded baserunning gaffes the Twins will have this season (I pray). On Sunday, Julien started at DH and homered, pushing his season OPS up to .769. Miranda was demoted to St. Paul after Saturday’s game to make room for Lee, who also started Sunday. "I had a pretty thorough conversation with Jose Miranda when we sent him out—when we optioned him," Baldelli said. "Obviously, I’m not gonna dive into the details of that conversation, but I had a couple of different messages for him, and it’s time for him to go down, play well, and get his season rolling." There’s no telling what the rest of the season holds, but Julien is taking advantage of the opportunities he has. It’s not a unique story, but it is one that defines a ton of players’ careers. Wally Pipp has gotten the bad break of living in historical infamy for it, but this happens all the time. Two players get a shot. One seizes it. If you just read that and think I said “Edouard Julien and Lou Gehrig are comparable,” please let me stop you. It’s just the quickest example. A player only gets so many opportunities to show a team, or the league, that he’s worthy of playing time—or even instructional time. There are only so many plate appearances—or hours in a coach’s day— to go around. And when there’s a looming infield crunch, every opportunity matters. Miranda now seems to be somewhere around eighth on the infield depth chart, ranking behind Julien, Correa, Lewis, Lee, France, Willi Castro, and maybe even Keaschall (if he proves he’s healthy). I mean, Mickey Gasper is also still on the roster (but destined for a much smaller role, so we can probably ignore him for this conversation). Fifteen games to start a season is a small sample. Matt Wallner opened the season dreadfully in 2024, but by rate stats, he ended up being the second-best batter on the team. Sometimes in baseball, though, that second (or third) chance never comes. You can get passed by by guys who do take advantage. In 2019, Luis Arraez leapfrogged Nick Gordon due to Gordon’s injury—and then proceeded to hit .400 for two months, preventing the Twins from ever sending him down again. Rob Refsnyder parlayed about 20 games of very good play for the Twins in 2021 into a decent little four-year career with the Red Sox as a role player. These small samples have a huge effect on guys’ careers. Julien has taken advantage of the small opening on the Twins roster. He might even settle into the regular leadoff spot, like he did Sunday, if he keeps hitting. "Eddy looks really good right now. I think he's very comfortable at the plate," Baldelli said after Sunday's win. "I think he's seeing the ball very well, I think he's looking for pitches in different parts of the zone. He's on heaters; he's on offspeed pitches. He drives the ball really well to the opposite field, and when you see him doing that, you know he's feeling it." Of course, again, I’m not crowning Julien, and I’m not calling for the banishment of Miranda. Who knows? Miranda might show back up in July and lead the team in batting average for the rest of the year, and Julien might fizzle out in May and spend the rest of the year in St. Paul. But right now, one has done what he needs to, and one hasn’t. I think the dichotomy is worth recognizing. View full article

Why can't the Twins send Chris Paddack to Wichita? Here's your answer. Image courtesy of © Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images It’s been less than two weeks, and the Twins have already started digging into their minor league depth, so it’s probably good for a discerning fan to know which players have minor league options. Head-scratching decisions often make more sense when considering the option information, so let’s overview the system. First, let’s touch on some rules. They’re a bit complicated but graspable with some patience. If you already know the rules, skip to the player lists. Minor League Options Defined To be eligible for an MLB active (26-man) roster, a player must be on that team’s expanded 40-man roster. A player on the 40-man roster can be in the majors or minors, but only players on the 40-man can be on the MLB active roster. Therefore, any player not on the 40-man roster must be added to both the 40-man and active rosters to be eligible to play. If there is no room on the 40-man, a current member needs to be removed, generally by exposing him to outright waivers or by transferring them to the 60-day injured list. If exposed to outright waivers, any other team in the league willing to take on the player’s salary and place him on their active roster (or expose him to waivers again) can claim him. Naturally, a player would need to be injured for the 60-day option to be available. To send a player to the minors while also on the team’s 40-man roster, they need to have option years remaining. If the player has no option years remaining, they must be exposed to waivers before being sent down. Number of Options When a player is added to a 40-man roster for the first time in his career, he has three option years. Option years are used when the player spends time in the minor leagues, whether it’s a full season or a few weeks spread over months. A player can be sent down once or several times in that year, and it will still count as a single option year, assuming that he meets the 20 day threshold. Players who do not play in the minor leagues in a given year retain their option years. If a player uses an option year in 2025, he will have two remaining. If he then spends all of 2026 on an MLB roster, he still has two. If he then gets sent down in 2027, he will have one. If he’s sent down again in 2028, he will have no options left, and if the team wants to send him to the minors in 2029, he would need to be waived first. Nuances There are some nuances to these rules to be aware of. First, if a player is in the minor leagues but is not on the 40-man roster, the team is not using one of his options. However, if he is called up to the major league team, and thus added to the 40-man roster, the team can only send him back down by using one of his options (if he has any) or exposing him to waivers. As of 2022, a player can only be sent to the minor leagues five times in one season, which includes starting the season in the minors. After the fifth time, the subsequent demotion requires the player to be waived. They will still have any future option years, though. Occasionally the years are malleable, and additional option years for a player may be added by the league. More specifically, the player must fit the criteria of having used all three options before getting 5 years of professional service (full season baseball). For example, Lewis Thorpe had four option years for this reason. In fact, a few Twins have. Gilberto Celestino had one option remaining in 2022 and was demoted mid-season. However, he was recalled within days after an injury to an active roster player, and because his demotion was so short, he did not use an option year. It needs to be over 20 days to count as an option year. Players with at least five years of service time (time on an MLB active roster) can refuse a demotion, even if they still have options remaining. You will rarely see a 35-year-old sent to AAA, even if he has an option remaining, because he can simply say no, forcing the team to either release him or send someone else down. <-> The Twins Roster Let’s look at the Twins players’ situations with all that out of the way. It should be noted that even if a player is listed with options remaining, that doesn’t mean we think they will be sent down or are even likely to. (Things would have to go really bad for Jhoan Duran to be sent to St. Paul). This information is from FanGraphs’s Roster Resource. MLB Players who can Refuse Demotion As discussed, these players have enough service time to refuse demotion. In rare cases, if the player and team agree that some time in the minor leagues would be beneficial, and he still has at least one option year remaining, it could happen. However, it’s rare enough that you shouldn’t hope that Chris Paddack agrees to spend time in St. Paul this season. Jorge Alcalá (as of this week), Harrison Bader, Byron Buxton, Willi Castro, Carlos Correa, Danny Coulombe, Ty France, Christian Vázquez MLB Players Out of Options These players can be sent down, but they would need to be exposed to waivers first. [author's note: Blewett is currently on waivers]. Scott Blewett, Brock Stewart, Michael Tonkin MLB Players with One Option Remaining These players are currently on the active roster (or injured list) and can still be sent down this year. However, if they are sent down and use an option year, they will have no options in 2026. The team could be a little more hesitant to use that final year than they would otherwise. Jhoan Durán, Edouard Julien, Trevor Larnach, Cole Sands, Louis Varland, Matt Wallner 40-Man Players with Multiple Option Years Remaining If necessary, any of these players can be sent back and forth with little concern. Travis Adams, Jair Camargo, David Festa, Kody Funderburk, Mickey Gasper, Griffin Jax, Ryan Jeffers, DaShawn Keirsey Jr., Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Austin Martin, Zebby Matthews, Marco Raya, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Justin Topa 40-Man Players in the Minor Leagues with One Option Remaining These players are currently in the minors (as of 4/12), and if they hit the 20-day threshold then it’s their last year. Come 2026, they would have no options remaining. Matt Canterino, Diego Cartaya, Jose Miranda Notable Minor League Veterans without Options and/or Sufficient Service Time There are a handful of minor league veterans that are not on the MLB roster. If these veterans are called up, they either have no options remaining (*) or can refuse the demotion due to service time (®), so sending them back down would be complicated. Prepare to lose them if you see them (as has already happened with Darren McCaughan). Mike Ford*, Richard Lovelady*, Darren McCaughan*, Anthony Misiewicz*, Erasmo Ramírez®, Huascar Ynoa* Notable Minor League Veterans with One Option Remaining If these veterans are called up, they still have one option remaining, so they can be kept in the system and demoted, but this would be the last year, without exposing them to waivers. Daniel Duarte, Alex Speas Notable Minor League Veterans with Multiple Options Remaining With this group, if they’re called up, they can be demoted with very little option year consideration. Any prospects you have in mind that hasn’t been listed in this document probably has no MLB services time and thus has three options remaining. Armando Alvarez, Jacob Bosiokovic, Allan Cerda, Randy Dobnak (seriously; his time at AAA has mostly been off of the 40-man roster, including right now), Brady Feigl, Ryan Jensen <-> Thanks for input from John Bonnes, Jeremy Nygaard, and Jack Goin over the last couple of years on this writeup, correcting many of the errors that I made. View full article

We live to serve

The season has just begun, and the Twins are already fighting to just keep their heads above water. Sweet Lou and Ol Gregg have a cathartic discussion for the first ever Twins On-Daily episode. After an episode of Gripes about pitchers' inability to throw to first base, luck not being the answer for everything, and the hopeless state of the fanbase, they finish on a Sweet Nothing. It was quite touching, if I do say so myself. Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 Listen using iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-twins-off-daily-podcas-167548600/ Listen using Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/nvclbt0w Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@twinsdaily View full article

The presence of a plan does not guarantee it's a good one

The Twins have been remarkably consistent in their lineup construction against righties—but only in the top half of the order. What can we learn from these early looks? Image courtesy of © Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images If you’re in the “Players need consistency in the lineup to succeed” camp, you’re probably a little more satisfied with Rocco Baldelli’s lineups in 2025. At minimum, he’s run out the same top of the order every day against righty starters—Matt Wallner, Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Trevor Larnach—though that alleged consistency hasn’t done much to help them as a group (note to Gregg: don’t let your bias show too strongly). [Note to readers: the foregoing note to Gregg was from Gregg, not your trusty editor. I keep telling him to just let his rampant bias flow.] {Note to editor: Can we please handle this in private? Greggory.} Within that pattern is an encouraging development: all four are playing every day (other than Wallner and Larnach, against the one lefty starter that they’ve faced). The bottom five spots in the lineup have varied, but there’s been a level of consistency even there. Willi Castro has played every day, although sometimes it's been at second base, and other times at third. Ty France has started eight of nine games. Ryan Jeffers and Christian Vázquez have alternated behind the plate, resulting in five starts for Jeffers and four for Vázquez. Given the Twins’ limited bench, they have a narrow rotation in these lineups outside of the catcher spot. Most days, two of Jose Miranda (six starts), Harrison Bader (six), and Edouard Julien (five) will start, minus the odd start by Mickey Gasper (two, though one was in place of France at first). DaShawn Keirsey Jr. has not started a game this season. At first glance, the back end of the lineup appears scattershot, only repeating one time in the first nine games (Games 1 and 3: Jeffers, France, Castro, Miranda, Bader). However, some “rules” emerge, if you’ve stared at the lineups as long as I have ahead of writing this. If you’ve ever done those brain teasers that go something like “Arrange these 5 boxes, the green and blue boxes can’t be next to each other, the red box and yellow box must be next to each other, etc.,” you’ll know what I’m talking about. And those rules probably inform us a bit on how Baldelli views his options (though let’s not get carried away; this is more a fun exercise than a research paper). The Catchers (Jeffers and Vázquez) At the beginning of the season, this was pretty straightforward. When Jeffers started, he hit 5th. When Vázquez started, he hit 9th. Jeffers has moved around a bit since the opening couple of series, as he’s now also hit 8th and 6th, but that can be explained by two of the below players. Vázquez is going to hit 9th whenever he starts. That’s pretty simple. Ty France France has only hit 5th or 6th, and there’s a pretty clear pattern as to which spot he hits in: if Jeffers is hitting 5th, France hits 6th. If Jeffers isn’t in that spot, then it’s France. The last four games that France has started, he’s hit 5th. He’s been spraying the ball all over the field, and even though he hasn’t been good this year (.520 OPS), he’s been better than many of the other hitters on this list, so his spot has held steady. Willi Castro Castro is one of three players (Buxton, Correa) to start all 10 Twins games, which includes the nine they’ve played versus righties thus far. He batted 7th the first four games, moved up to 6th (behind France) the next three, hit 5th the day France sat, and then dropped back down to 7th in the most recent game. His positioning can be attributed mostly to one factor: his handedness. In lineups with only two lefty hitters (Wallner and Larnach), Castro will almost always hit 7th by default. He’s better against righties, so having him sandwiched between two righties protects him (and the team) from lefty relievers, though to a lesser extent than Wallner and Larnach. Having the three of them bat 1-4-7 spreads them out, and it’s a consistent pattern of Baldelli’s lineup construction over his tenure. I’m relatively confident in this, because once Julien was added to the lineup (Games 4-8), Castro began hitting higher up, but then dropped back to 7th when Julien sat (with the exception of Game 4, when Jeffers hit 5th, bumping France to 6th, leaving Castro and Julien to hit 7th and 8th, because we already know the France and Jeffers rules). Castro has been hitting higher than Jeffers of late, as well, likely because he’s simply performed better, being one of the team’s most consistent hitters in this young season. Harrison Bader Bader has played a lot, and he’s leading the team in OPS—pushing up against 1.000, at .988 with three home runs. However, he’s been a weak hitter with a great glove for most of his career, relegating him to the bottom of the lineup, because you, I, and Baldelli all lack faith that he’ll continue to be the club’s most effective hitter. As such, he’s been relegated to the 9th spot—unless Vázquez starts. Then, he’s 8th. It’s a pretty simple rule. Edouard Julien Julien, the third true lefty when he starts, has been mostly relegated to the 7th spot, for the rule discussed in the Castro blurb—he’s a lefty. Spacing him, Wallner, and Larnach out with two righties between them protects the lineup. There was the game in which Jeffers pushed France, Castro, and Julien down, but the rule holds pretty consistent. Jose Miranda Fans are split on Miranda’s role and potential, but it seems that management isn’t. He got starts over Julien early in the season while the Canadian was dealing with the stomach flu, but he mostly hit 8th, even falling to 9th when Vázquez and Bader both sat. Miranda did hit 6th in the most recent game, but that was out of default by the rules discussed here: France hits 5th, Castro hits 7th without Julien, Bader hits 8th when Vázquez catches, because Vázquez always hits 9th. Mickey Gasper He hit 6th once and 8th once, and you can basically backtrack through the rules to figure out why. Game 8 was a little wonky, but if you look at it, it makes sense, given Jeffers's and Castro’s differing performance levels. Now obviously, all of this will change over the season, or when Buxton and Correa aren’t in the lineup, or when Royce Lewis comes back and probably assumes the 5th spot. But it is a fun exercise to try to tease apart the lineup construction logic. Is it super meaningful? I’m skeptical, but it is something that a lot of people care about. How do you feel about the lineup construction early in the year? We’ve had a lot of games against righties already, so we’ve got a solid sample to choose from. View full article

Wow how is way better without that Greggory clown edit: mods how do you delete a comment please respond

You cooked me here; I can't lie.

Incorrect. I think that Ryan Jeffers is a fine, average-level starting catcher. At no point in the article did I say that the Twins should extend Ryan Jeffers. I’m personally not a “big fan” of him (here’s me also exploring the idea of trading him over the offseason: . I just used Raleigh’s extension to explore the idea. The contract number that I threw out was an estimate of what it might take to actually get an extension done given his production, age, and remaining team control. And for this type of exercise, I tend to overestimate the cost, because I’d prefer the complaints to be “he’s not worth that” instead of “dream on that’s a sweetheart deal.”

It's admittedly a huge part of this conversation/decision, but the writeup was getting long and I had a lot of aspects I wanted to note, so I ended up deleting a bit of the 28 y/o and arbitration years discussions

come on edit: for the uninitiated

"He’s never caught in more than 86 games in a season, and he’s stayed relatively healthy, only missing significant time in 2022 (presumably due, in part, to the Twins’ commitment to splitting time to keep both primary catchers fresh). The lack of miles on his tires may protect him a bit from a catcher’s typical aging curve (or cliff). However, that brings up another point: Jeffers has never been a full-time catcher. The last three catchers to get multi-year extensions consistently caught at least 100 games per year. If the Twins are committing that money to Jeffers, would they need him to catch more often than not, and would his body hold up to that workload? We’ve never seen it before for him, so that’s a question." Jeffers and the other 3 catchers' ages were referenced several times, as well as the danger of signing up for an aging catcher's services, given their aging curve. There were also multiple notes that Jeffers is not the same caliber of catcher as Raleigh (despite roughly equal offense), which is why I didn't suggest signing him to a contract that paid out 20M in any year. If Raleigh was going to sign a six year deal that only bought out his last year of arbitration, his AAV would be in the 20s, not 17.5.

It's a tough game to play because there just have not been may catcher extensions in the recent past. Raleigh's 3 years of arbitration got bought out at about 11M each, but then it jumps into the 20s after that. Jeffers isn't worth that. And Smith's 14M AAV would have likely been higher had he signed for 6 years like the others. When I play the unwinnable game of guessing contracts, I tend to err on the side overestimating the cost. I could feasibly see a 4/48, a 3/45, 3/40, or something like that getting it done, but I'm not paid enough to soothsay.

Sweet Lou, Car Rant Cody, and Ol Gregg overreact to everything that happened in the Twins' first game of the year. Send Pablo to Cedar Rapids and plan the Harrison Bader MVP celebration! The crew also discusses the Cardinals' pregame ceremony, predict team MVP, Cy Young, and so forth, and struggle through a blind lineup. The season is back and so are we, every off day! Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 Listen using iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-twins-off-daily-podcas-167548600/ Listen using Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/nvclbt0w Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@twinsdaily View full article

Ryan Jeffers only has two years of team control left with the Twins, and there's no clear replacement. Would it be possible to extend the soon-to-be 28-year-old, following the Mariners’ lead? Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images In your head, Ryan Jeffers might be a young building block for the Minnesota Twins, but time is running low on his tenure. Since his debut in 2020, he’s more or less been the Twins' starting catcher. At minimum, he's held a substantial portion of a timeshare behind the plate—whether that be alongside Mitch Garver (2020-2021), Gary Sánchez (2022), or Christian Vázquez (2023-2025). He’s hit fairly well, sporting a career 104 OPS+, which is about average for the league overall but much better than the average catcher. The offensive standard for backstops hovers around 90, or 10% below league average. In that context, a 104 OPS+ is substantial. In 2024, Jeffers came in at 103. In 2023, that figure was 133, nearly 50% better than the average catcher that year. His defense has graded out inconsistently. Early in his career, his receiving was his strong suit, and the major questions were about his arm. Over time, his reputation for framing diminished, but he improved in controlling the running game. He seems to be reliable in challenging pitches in the automated ball-strike system, as he was fairly successful during spring training. In all likelihood, starting next year, that will become an actual (and fairly valuable) skill. I have laid out this information to set up a comparison to the Mariners’ Cal Raleigh, the latest of a few catchers to be extended recently. Raleigh signed a six-year, $105-million extension, with a vesting option for a seventh year. Raleigh shares some similarities with Jeffers. They’re around the same age—Raleigh is about half a year older. Raleigh had two years of team control after 2025 before his extension—one more than Jeffers. They both hit well for catchers. Raleigh has the better career mark, with a 112 OPS+, though Jeffers has been almost exactly as good if we only consider the last two seasons: 117 for Raleigh and 116 for Jeffers (which admittedly may be buoyed by the latter's outstanding 2023). Ryan Jeffers v. Cal Raleigh, 2023-24 In addition to being the better hitter for his career, Raleigh controls the running game and receives substantially better than Jeffers. Raleigh won the Gold Glove for American League catchers last season and the Rawlings Platinum Glove, given to the best fielder in the league across all positions. He’s very good. Jeffers isn’t Raleigh, so his figure probably wouldn’t come in so high. For reference, Raleigh’s $105 million is divided up like so: 2025: $11 million 2026: $11 million 2027: $12 million 2028: $23 million 2029: $23 million 2030: $23 million 2031: $20 million (vesting option, $2 million buyout) Other relevant recent extensions include the Dodgers buying out Will Smith’s last two years of team control and eight additional years (until his age-38 season) at $14 million per year in 2024 and Atlanta buying out all three years of Sean Murphy’s arbitration, plus three more years and a team option ($15 million for his age-34 season) for $12.2 million per year, on average. Smith and Murphy are also viewed as better hitters and defenders (though that’s debatable, with Smith) than Jeffers. All three of these comparable cases were extended earlier in their arbitration processes than Jeffers, which does diminish their average annual value, given that they have less leverage for those years, and Smith’s long contract is structured to spread money out and manipulate the luxury tax system for the Dodgers. (I’d be surprised if he finished the contract.) However, each was extended ahead of his age-28 or 29 season, right in line with Jeffers. So, what might an extension for Jeffers look like? Perhaps it would be five years, with an average annual value around $12-15 million. He only has one arbitration year remaining, which removes some of the artificial suppression on the yearly value. A five-year, $70-million contract would align him with Murphy’s (arbitration-deflated) deal and retain Jeffers through his age-33 season. I’m sure I could be talked into something longer or shorter, more expensive or less expensive, maybe with a vesting option for his age-34 season, but $70 million over five seasons is a decent spot to start thinking through this. Is this something that the Twins would want to do? There are a few factors at play. Right now, $14 million (the average annual value for this hypothetical deal) would represent about 10% of the Twins’ total payroll, just a hair less than the money Byron Buxton is getting—though also less than Jeffers and Vázquez are making combined this year as the catching tandem. That’s not an insignificant amount, and we’ve already seen the repercussions of an aging catcher getting an eight-figure salary with Vázquez’s performance over the last three years (which, by the way, does still indicate that the team is open to multi-year, eight-digit AAV contracts for starting catchers). Given this concern in particular, it’s worth speculating on how Jeffers will hold up as he ages. Catchers do not age gracefully. It’s a demanding position that ages a young man quickly. Jeffers is a big guy, at 6-foot-3. However, he’s been lightly ridden over his career. He’s never caught in more than 86 games in a season, and he’s stayed relatively healthy, only missing significant time in 2022 (presumably due, in part, to the Twins’ commitment to splitting time to keep both primary catchers fresh). The lack of miles on his tires may protect him a bit from a catcher’s typical aging curve (or cliff). However, that brings up another point: Jeffers has never been a full-time catcher. The last three catchers to get multi-year extensions consistently caught at least 100 games per year. If the Twins are committing that money to Jeffers, would they need him to catch more often than not, and would his body hold up to that workload? We’ve never seen it before for him, so that’s a question. Finally, the last factor that needs to be considered here is the alternative options. The Twins do not have a clear replacement for Jeffers come 2027. Right now, they have two minor-league catchers on the 40-man roster, in Jair Camargo and Diego Cartaya. Camargo seems destined for a career as a backup catcher, and assuming he plays his way into that role, he could be an inexpensive catching partner with Jeffers for the life of his extension. However, that plan would likely require Jeffers to get above the 100 games caught threshold. Cartaya, once a top prospect, still has a ceiling where he could feasibly become a starting-caliber catcher, but that’s assuming a lot for a kid who’s struggled over the last couple of years. However, he is still young, and he could get to a level where the Twins feel comfortable splitting time between him and Jeffers more evenly. He could also top out as a more traditional backup, and fill a similar role to the one we discussed with Camargo. Then again, perhaps neither of them could ever be viable options. Who knows? Outside of those two, the Twins don’t have a name that jumps off the page. Ricardo Olivar, Khadim Diaw, or Ricardo Pena could be options, but there are huge questions for those names (and any others in the system). If the Twins don’t extend Jeffers, they could still need to invest salary or prospect trade capital in covering the positions in the years after Jeffers exits. It may just be a question of whether they want to pay Jeffers a good chunk of change, or someone else (probably worse) a bit less. View full article

@Lou Hennessy please provide our friend here with a bingo board of their own.