Greggory Masterson

Both of you should be on the lookout for Part 2, where JD makes a cameo

Awesome! My background isn’t in organizational leadership, but I do have a history in other organizational disciplines. Part 2 will be released soon, and then Part 3 and on will be somewhat dependent on the feedback I get from the first two parts. If there are topics in the comments that people indicate interest in, I’ll work them into the series!

To paraphrase Justice Potter Stewart, 'Leadership—I know it when I see it.' We can all agree that leaders exist, but unpacking what makes a leader is more complicated. Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports Teammates, media, and fans laud Carlos Correa for his leadership ability. Shoot, players on other teams compliment Correa for being a leader: On Tuesday, Correa was caught putting his arm around Carson Williams, a 19-year old Rays prospect, after the youngster committed an error in a spring training game. When it comes to identifying what exactly he does as a leader, though, we can struggle to quantify it. Today, we’re starting an ol’ Gregg deep dive into leadership, its observable outcomes or benefits, and why Correa gets explicitly highlighted as a leader. You can take this series as a continuation of this blog post looking at what “clubhouse presence” might generally mean for a player like Correa. I’ll reference papers discussed there, so if you’re interested, check out that blog. Leadership Defined Let’s start at the top with a definition of leadership. Many will cite traits or behaviors like empowering others, providing support, giving guidance, or something like that. However, at its most basic level, leadership is influence. Leaders influence those who follow them into certain behaviors. Leaders can come in all forms. One easy way to think about them is informal or formal leaders who can be from inside or outside of a team. A player like Correa would be an informal leader inside the team. Under our definition of leadership, an excellent informal leader can change others’ behavior. Now, it’s possible to influence behavior positively or negatively, so it’s crucial to have the right type of leader. A bloviating blowhard can walk into a clubhouse and certainly influence their teammates, but if that influence isn’t beneficial for the team, then what’s the point? Even worse, a front office could bring a leader into the clubhouse, but the team could still reject that person as a leader. Clearly, this was not the case in Minnesota last year, at least from outsiders’ perspectives. So let’s move on to how players become leaders. Leader Emergence As mentioned in my previous blog post, players can have informal roles like leader that are not officially bestowed on them by the powers that be (as opposed to first baseman or leadoff hitter). Instead, their teammates agree that that person fills the role. In a study led by Jeemin Kim of Wilfred Laurier University, teams tended to be most satisfied with their play when verbal leaders made up 10-15% of the team. On a baseball team, that would be between two and four players, and Correa certainly fits that bill on this Twins team. Long ago, a psychologist named Robert F. Bales put forward a theory suggesting that three things mattered for a person to fill an informal role: being noticed, skills, and likeability. These three factors matter for all roles—not just leadership. For example, the role of clubhouse cancer would require a person to be very good at disrupting the clubhouse. Let’s stick, though, to the role of informal leader. That player needs to have influence, be likable (to some extent), and be noticed for his traits. Correa has the on-field ability of one of the top players in the sport. That helps, but plenty of talented players aren’t seen as leaders. Instead, he must also help guide teammates, provide an example for them, and be there for them—all of the things people think about when they think of a leader. He doesn’t need to be all of them, just enough of them to be noticed by his teammates. From a social scientist’s perspective, he has an increased potential to be noticed simply by his position in the field. Teams have what are called social networks—complex relationships between players. These networks can be mapped out and measured. Networks can come in all types, such as friendship or time spent playing together. Players with more friends on the team can have a wider friendship network, and teammates who have played longer can have stronger familiarity bonds with each other. A team is a series of different types of networks that can become somewhat confusing. For the visual of you out there, see the network I approximated based on coordination. Thicker lines indicate more substantial levels of coordination needed for the players at each position on the field. They’re also color-coded, with purple being the strongest, yellow being medium, and red being the weakest. This map isn’t exact, but it gets the point across. If you look closely, shortstops and catchers appear to require the most coordination with their teammates. Catchers specifically work incredibly closely with their pitchers and then everyone else to some extent. Shortstops have, at minimum, a moderate level of coordination with everyone else on the team, save the pitcher (though even that could be higher if you consider the amount of coordination necessary for shifting and pitch selection). This diagram isn’t just me making things up to support my thoughts. As far back as the 1960s, social scientists observed this very thing. Having more ties and stronger ties makes a player more centralized in their network, and Oscar Grusky of UCLA discovered that the more central a player’s position was, the more likely they were to become a manager. This finding isn’t a new discovery in the baseball world, either. Many reading this already know that catchers and middle infielders are more likely to become managers than pitchers or outfielders. However, it’s worth noting that psychology has been on the same wavelength as conventional wisdom in this regard. All this is to say that a player like Carlos Correa is in a prime position to be identified as a leader by his teammates. In the next installment, I will look at what sort of leadership Correa exhibits that solidifies him as a leader. Bales, R. F. 1966. “Task roles and social roles in problem solving groups”. In Role theory: Concepts and research, Edited by: Biddle, B. J. and Thomas, E. J. 254–262. New York: John Wiley. Grusky, O. (1963). The effects of formal structure on managerial recruitment: A study of baseball organization. Sociometry, 26, 345–353. doi:10.2307/2786074 https://www.jstor.org/stable/2786074 Kim, J., Godfrey, M., & Eys, M. (2020). The antecedents and outcomes of informal roles in interdependent sport teams. Sport, Exercise, and Performance Psychology, 9(3), 277–291. https://doi.org/10.1037/spy0000179 View full article

Has anyone actually ever seen Terry and Seth in the same room?

If you’re looking for an obscure storyline to follow in 2023, pay attention to the seasons of four key impending free agents. Image courtesy of Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports The rules governing MLB are nothing, if not labyrinthine. The draft rules are no different. Between qualifying offers, competitive balance picks, and the standard first-round pick, the Twins have the potential to fill their draft boards. MLB teams can offer their impending free agents a Qualifying Offer (QO) at the end of the season. If the player rejects it, teams can receive an additional draft pick. The rules are complicated, but if the Twins are still a revenue-sharing recipient and the player signs a contract north of $50 million, they will gain a draft pick between the first and second rounds. The pick would be between the second and third rounds if the player signs for less than $50 million. Have you got it? Super simple. The bottom line is that if the Twins give the QO to an impending free agent, and he rejects it, they essentially get an extra first-round pick. Do the Twins have any players who could receive the QO? Yes, several. To give a player the QO, the team has two criteria. First, the player must not have received a QO from their current team or any other team. Second, the player has to have spent the entire season on the team’s roster. The Twins have seven players projected to be eligible for the QO. However, the QO is a one-year deal equal to the average of MLB’s top 125 player salaries, likely around $20 million. Something has to go horribly right for three players—Donovan Solano, Michael A. Taylor, and Emilio Pagán—to sniff the QO. Depending on how they play, a solid case can be made for each of the other four to receive the QO. It’s something of a win-win for the team. If the player accepts the offer, the team pays them a hefty salary for only one year—no strings attached. The team gets a draft pick for their troubles if they reject it. So, who are these four players, and what are the odds they will receive a QO? Kenta Maeda Maeda is likely the longest shot in this camp, but it’s not unfeasible. It’s hard to predict how he will play this season, coming off of Tommy John surgery at almost 35, but if he pitches anywhere close to how he did in 2020, it’s reasonable. He would also be the most likely of the group to accept the offer. At his age, his chances of securing a multi-year deal are lower, so if he doesn’t think he could get a deal in free agency around $50 million over two years (Justin Verlander’s 2022 deal coming off of Tommy John, for reference), a $20 million payday would be good for him. It would also be an affordable veteran arm for the younger 2024 team. Sonny Gray 2023 will be Gray’s 11th year in the big leagues, but he signed an extension early in his career that kept him from testing free agency (and kept him underpaid). Now he’s 33 and an established #2 starter heading into free agency after the season. A comparable (albeit more durable) player who signed a deal in free agency this year is Chris Bassitt. Bassitt signed a three-year, $63 million contract with the QO attached to him. If Gray has another season like 2022, with better health and more innings, he could be in line for more than Bassitt got. The Twins would gladly bring him back for $20 million or get a draft pick. Tyler Mahle Mahle is the highest-upside pitcher in this group and, not coincidentally, the youngest. If his shoulder proves healthy and he keeps his home runs down in pitcher-friendly Target Field, he could put together a season solidifying himself as an upper-level number-2 starter. In 2022, similar starters in age and ability Eduardo Rodriquez and Marcus Stroman fetched contracts over $70 million guaranteed. Rodriguez had the QO attached, and Stroman accepted his QO the year prior. If Mahle and his representation saw $70 million as feasible, they would likely pursue free agency. Given his age, he may sign a contract for five-plus years, taking him into his mid-30s and even push $100 million. Again, the Twins would gladly accept either outcome from him. Joey Gallo Here’s the wildcard. Gallo is a two-time All-Star and Gold Glove winner. He also hit .160 last year. If he had been a free agent last offseason, he would have netted over $100 million on his next contract, even with his struggles down the stretch. Instead, he’s on a make-good, one-year deal with Minnesota. If he rediscovers his form, playing elite defense in the outfield, getting on base at a .335 clip, and hits 35 home runs, he will assuredly receive the QO and reject it. Even if he plays at 80% of that pace, there’s a case to be made. (Andrew Benintendi signed a five-year, $75 million deal this offseason). What are the odds that all four players play well enough to justify a QO? Probably low. The Twins current front office has only ever offered one player the QO—Jake Odorizzi in 2019—and he accepted it. I would be shocked, though, if none of them received it, and I think there’s a better chance for all four to get one than for none of them to get one. Combined with their standard first-rounder and a potential competitive balance pick, which they have been receiving lately due to market size and revenue, the Twins could have as many as six draft picks before the second round. I’m not saying it’s likely, but as JP from Angels in the Outfield would say, “It could happen.” I’m sure Twins scouting director Sean Johnson is licking his chops. View full article

I refuse to do so

Yes, and one of Bill James’s closest confidants

Ben Franklin, a Founding Father of sabermetrics, once said, “A run saved is a run earned.” No disrespect meant to our greatest president, but a run earned is also a run earned. Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports As we each race to be the first person to put the cart before the horse of 2023 Spring Training Flavor of the Week Edouard Julien, it’s worth taking a minute to consider where the lad will play. He’s not renowned for his defensive chops, but he may be able to hit well enough to stick at second base. “Gregg, you lout!” you might be saying, “You messed up the phrase; it’s ‘defends well enough to stick at second base.’” Allow me to explain. Many are familiar with the concept of the defensive spectrum. shortstop, catcher, and centerfield are the most demanding positions, whereas first base, left field, and designated hitter are the easiest. Most players are moved down the spectrum as they are proved incapable of being one of the best defenders in the world at each position. There’s no shame in it. However, the further one moves down the spectrum, the more their value is derived from their ability to hit. Andrelton Simmons made an 11-year career out of a bat 13% below league average. He wouldn’t have even been drafted if all he could play was first base. Teams will give players as many chances as possible before sliding them down the spectrum, so Julien played exclusively at second base in 2022 at AA Wichita. The Twins are in luck if his big bat can stick at second. Playing Julien at second (or third, for that matter) frees up playing time for even less gifted defenders who can only play first base or designated hitter. You don’t have to believe in the value of WAR as a statistic to agree with a basic premise: a player should create more offensive runs than they give up defensively. If the bat is good enough, teams can deal with suboptimal defense. Two prime examples of this working out are the cases of Gary Sheffield and Derek Jeter. Sheffield played shortstop, third base, left field, and right field during his career, and he was awful at each spot. Sheffield was an approximate 80 WAR hitter for his career but lost approximately 20 WAR because of his defense. Still, he hit well enough to have a strong Hall of Fame case. Most people are also familiar with Derek Jeter’s defensive woes. The Captain—never moved off short—is regarded as a poor defender due to his lack of range, despite his Gold Gloves and propensity for highlight plays. It wasn’t the end of the world for either player because their bats more than made up for their defensive ineptitude. Julien isn’t on a fast track to the Hall, but if he hits enough, he can make it work at second base despite his lack of range and arm. Scouting reports are not kind to the young Canadian, as FanGraphs and MLB rate his defense as a 30 and a 40 on the 20-80 rating scale, respectively. The Twins themselves have dealt with bat-first infielders in recent years. Jorge Polanco certainly made it work. Despite his defensive struggles, he was named to the 2019 All-Star team as the starting shortstop. He hit 20% higher than the league average that year, with a slash line of .295/.356/.485 and 22 home runs. Even after his move to second base, where he is still a slightly below-average fielder, he hits enough to be consistently rated in the top 10 second basemen in MLB. Luis Arraez, often the first comparison drawn for Julien, given his positional “flexibility” and high on-base skills, was moved to first base out of necessity. Arraez has been an average-to-below-average second baseman, but he can be an option there because of his excellent on-base skills. In 2022, he was named an All-Star with a .338 batting average at the break. Although he struggled down the stretch with nagging injuries, he still hit 30% above league average for 2022 and was an above-average big league regular throughout the year. However, Julien’s defense appears worse than Polanco’s and Arraez’s. Although he shouldn’t at this time be expected to make an All-Star game in his career, he probably needs to hit somewhere in the same ballpark as Polanco and Arraez to overcome the additional runs he would give up as an everyday second baseman. Two other fun examples are worth mentioning. Daniel Murphy could affectionately be called a first baseman playing second base. Through his first seven years in the league, he hit about 10% better than the league average, and although he gave up many runs with his poor defense, he was still a solid regular. Then, in 2016, he hit a blistering .347/.390/.595 with 25 home runs and a league-leading 47 doubles. His defense was no longer a consideration. When you win the Silver Slugger, how you field doesn’t matter much. Eventually, he did move to first base, though Father Time was also catching up to him, and he couldn’t produce enough to be a Major League first baseman. Alfonso Soriano, another slugging second baseman, won the Silver Slugger three times in his five years as an everyday second baseman. He also led the league in errors at second base all five years before being moved to left field. All things considered, errors aren’t the most reliable statistic, but leading the league in them at your position is not a good thing. Still, Soriano was an All-Star four times during that stretch, hitting approximately 20% higher than the league average. If Julien comes up and tears the cover off the ball as he has at every level of the Minor Leagues, playing poor defense might not be the end of the world. However, his defense probably can’t be horrible without him being a Silver Slugger candidate to justify sticking at second base. If he can improve defensively to merely below average, a solid bat might be enough for him to play there. He could also hit enough to justify bouncing between second, third, left, and first based on need, similar to early-career Arraez. Also, Chuck Knoblauch. View full article

I appreciate it! I excluded Jeffers because he was injured during the Cleveland games in September

Great work on this, Matt.

Well, last year's reserves certainly weren't the Heavy Brigade. Edit: Charge of the Light Hitting Brigade is a nice name for last year's September roster.

After the Twins succumbed to injuries late in the 2022 season,, club officials have worked to improve depth over the offseason. Will it be enough? Image courtesy of © Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero. I am Carlos’s bamboo ankle. Yes, the Twins lost the second-most days to injury in the 2022 season, but that isn’t the whole truth. As a skeptic or a naysayer may remind you, players like Jhon Romero and Randy Dobnak led the team in days lost. However, the more significant issue was their lack of health down the stretch. Somehow, the Twins still had a share of first place on September 4. No matter how they got there, they could win the AL Central—if they could keep pace with Cleveland. There were eight crucial games down the stretch against Cleveland, and the Twins won only one. I am Alex’s shortened ulna. Some days are the sort of day where the sun only comes up to humiliate you. In those eight games against Cleveland, the depleted Twins were without Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler (he did start two games but was on a broken foot), Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Royce Lewis, Ryan Jeffers, and Miguel Sano. On aggregate, the lineup looked like this, more or less, presented with games started during that stretch, 2022 fWAR per 550 plate appearances, and 2022 OPS, for those of you who are statistically inclined: 2B) Luis Arraez (7, 2.9 fWAR, .795 OPS) SS) Carlos Correa (8, 4.1, .834) 1B) Jose Miranda (8, 1.3, .751) LF) Nick Gordon (7, 1.9, .743) 3B) Gio Urshela (8, 2.4, .767) DH) Gary Sanchez (5, 1.5, .659) RF) Jake Cave (7, 1.6, .644) CF) Gilberto Celestino (5, 0.0, .615) C) Sandy Leon (4, -2.5, .502) Starter fWAR: 13.1; OPS: .701 Bench: Matt Wallner (4, 0.8, .709) Kyle Garlick (2, 0.3, .717) Mark Contreras (2, -0.9, .441) Jermaine Palacios (2, -6.4, .413) Total fWAR: 6.9; OPS: .661 As mentioned, Kepler also started two games, and even Billy Hamilton got a start during that stretch. Sticking feathers up your butt does not make you a chicken, though. That group is not a winning team, nor is it even a treading-water team. It is unreasonable to believe any team will play at a 90-win pace with six Opening Day starters and two top reserves on the IL. But fans can expect at least a fight. Club decision-makers should, too. I am Trevor’s herniated core. Since then, the front office has traded for Kyle Farmer and Michael A. Taylor, who started at shortstop and centerfield, respectively, for poor teams last year. They signed 2020 Silver Slugger second baseman Donovan Solano to a one-year deal. Joey Gallo and Christian Vazquez join the squad with a mostly healthy injury history. These additions should help—in theory. If the exact string of injuries were to occur again, the lineup could look something like this in 2023 (presented with 2023 fWAR per 550 plate appearances and OPS, projected by FanGraphs ATC): 1B) Miranda (2.5 fWAR, .743 OPS) 2B) Solano (1.5, .711) 3B) Farmer (1.6, .676) SS) Correa (4.4, .811) LF) Gordon (1.8, .719) CF) Taylor (1.8, .660) RF) Gallo (2.0, .732) C) Vazquez (2.6, .671) DH Wallner (-1.0, .669) Starter projected fWAR: 17.0; OPS: .710 Bench: C) Tony Wolters* (0.0, .538) UT) Willi Castro* (2.6, .648) OF) Celestino (0.0, .642) IF) Edouard Julien* (2.3, .698)** Total projected fWAR: 21.9; OPS: .686 * denotes not on the 40-man roster ** Julien’s ATC projections were awful due to a comically heavy hit to his defensive metrics, so ZiPS was used here Other players who could be plugged in here include Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, Elliot Soto, Kyle Garlick, Tyler White, and the rest of the veteran catchers. Some noticeable beneficial changes emerge here. Wallner, Gallo, and Vazquez effectively replace Cave, Sanchez, and Leon as bats in the lineup. Taylor moves Celestino to a reserve role. The losses of Arraez and Urshela hurt, but Solano and Wallner aren’t awful replacements. Another factor is the hypothetical development of upper-level-minors prospects. Wallner, for example, is a carryover from the rock-bottom roster, but in theory, he should be better than he was last year. Buzz around Julien is heating up, and he may be an impact bat in 2023. That isn’t a given, though. Other guys like Lee and Martin may even play their way into a role that would move Solano or Farmer back to the bench, but it’s not prudent to count eggs before they hatch. I am Jorge’s trick ankle. If we were to exclude anyone with injury question marks, Correa would be out of the picture, replaced by someone like Martin. There would be some scrambling of the lineups, and it would hurt. If Lee is Major League ready, it might not hurt as much, though without pain, without sacrifice, we would have nothing, like the first monkey shot into space. I am Royce’s twice-exploded knee. What if every single starter on the 2023 roster is injured? How would the roster look? We can add Gordon, Gallo, Miranda, and Vazquez to the list. On the bright side, Larnach, Lewis, and Jeffers are back in the mix. 1B) Julien* (2.3 fWAR, .698 OPS)** 2B) Solano (1.5, .711) 3B) Farmer (1.6, .676) SS) Lewis (1.7, .732) LF) Larnach (0.2, .681) CF) Taylor (1.8, .660) RF) Wallner (-1.0, .669) C) Jeffers (2.4, .684) DH) Castro* (2.6, .648) Starter projected fWAR: 13.1; OPS: .684 Bench: C) Wolters* (0.0, .538) OF) Celestino (0.0, .642) OF) Garlick (0.6, .675) UT) Martin (0.7, .622) Total projected fWAR: 14.3; OPS: .664 * denotes not on the 40-man roster ** Julien’s ATC projections were awful due to a comically heavy hit to his defensive metric, so ZiPS was used here I’m unaware of a team that can do much more than tread water without any of their starters, but this roster is one way it could shake out. Some may say that it looks better than last year’s September roster. Some may think comparing two bad teams isn’t worth considering. Others may believe that losing all hope is freedom. I am Ryan’s contused thumb. The goal was clear this offseason: build depth. Even if the Mona Lisa is falling apart, they must do everything possible to protect against a complete collapse, as we saw in 2022. Whoever takes the field needs to put up the fight club officials have come to expect from their guys. It remains to be seen whether or not they built up enough depth to withstand the throes of a season. Perhaps this is what happens when you build a roster on health question marks. Perhaps no amount of depth can protect a team against losing half of their key pieces. I’m not here to determine whether or not they did what they needed to; I just wanted to share this back-of-the-napkin mental exercise. And melodramatic prose. I am Byron’s … everywhere. Only after disaster can we be resurrected. It’s only after you’ve lost everything that you’re free to do anything. Nothing is static; everything is evolving; everything is falling apart. Do you think that Falvey, Levine, and co did enough? View full article

Yes! From 1959-1962, they played two a year. They were within a month of each other and basically had the same rosters for both games. From what I know, it was something players were open to because it added money to the pension pool.

On their way to stepping over MLB’s color barrier, Roy Campanella and Willie Mays called Minnesota home. It was short, but it was memorable. Image courtesy of © Malcolm Emmons-USA TODAY Sports Looking back on Minnesota baseball history, Black players like Kirby Puckett, Dave Winfield, Mudcat Grant, or Torii Hunter often stand out. Two names, even more recognizable, are often overlooked. Roy Campanella Roy Campanella was the sixth player to break the MLB color barrier and the third Brooklyn Dodger. He was on Branch Rickey’s shortlist of players he had signed to integrate baseball. As the son of a Black mother and an Italian-American father, he was seen as a candidate before Rickey settled on Robinson. Before signing with the Dodgers in 1946, he spent nine years with the Negro Leagues Washington Elite Giants, having joined the team as a 15-year-old. In 1946, he was sent to Nashua, NH, after Brooklyn determined that the Danville Dodgers in Illinois was not a location prepared for integration. He then spent 1947 in Montreal, where Robinson had played the year prior, rather than for the AAA St. Paul Saints. Again, the Dodgers feared the American Association was unprepared for integration. Robinson broke the MLB color barrier in 1947, playing first base for the Dodgers, and Dan Bankhead became the second Black Dodger later that season. Campanella was knocking on the door of the big leagues, and at the beginning of the 1947 season, he registered his first MLB plate appearance as a Brooklyn Dodger, being hit by a pitch, as was the practice at the time for Black players. He played in a few more games in Brooklyn but was sent down to AAA as part of an early-season roster trim. Before becoming a fixture behind the plate for the Dodgers, he needed to make one more stop: Lexington Park in St. Paul. Although not the first Black player to play in MLB, he was the first in the American Association. By public accounts, the Twin Cities welcomed him. Hitting a home run in six consecutive games with 20 RBI in a week will do that to a community. Many wondered why it had taken so long for a Black player to come to play professional baseball on their fields, and Campanella made a case for more to be accepted into town. His success as a ballplayer was bittersweet for the fans, though; the better he played, the sooner he would be called up to Brooklyn. Campanella spent only 39 memorable days in St. Paul, belting 13 home runs with a .325 batting average over 35 games. He left for Brooklyn amongst Minnesota well-wishers who became lifelong fans of the star catcher, supporting him from a distance. For ten years, Campanella sat behind the plate for the Dodgers, seen as one of the top players in the game. He was an All-Star for eight consecutive years, winning the MVP three times. Unfortunately, his career was cut short due to a car accident that left him paralyzed, but in 1969, he was inducted into Cooperstown. He may be more famous for his Hall of Fame plaque, or his mentions in Billy Joel’s We didn’t Start the Fire and Talkin’ Baseball by Terry Cashman, but for five weeks, he was the talk of the town in the Twin Cities. When he left town, there was excitement about more Black players playing for Minnesota teams. Willie Mays The Twin Cities didn’t have to wait long before an even more significant Black figure came along. Another New York team also had a Minnesota farm team in the American Association—the Minneapolis Millers—who would get their own slice of Black baseball in the form of the Say Hey Kid. Willie Mays was the 17th player to cross the color barrier at the Major League level. Like Campanella, he began his professional career as a teenager in the Negro Leagues, playing for the Birmingham Black Barons in 1948. Upon graduating high school in 1950, Mays had several contract offers but chose the New York Giants. As a 19-year-old, Mays moved to Trenton to play in the Giant’s minor league system, seeing success, hitting .353 with four home runs in 81 games. The following year, 1951, he moved to Minneapolis to play for the AAA Millers. If Twin Cities residents thought what Campanella did was special (and it was), they had a pleasant surprise with Mays. The 20-year-old, playing against a league of grown men seven years older than him on average, hit a blistering .477 with an absurd 1.323 OPS for the Millers. His prowess with the bat wasn’t the only draw; he was also the most outstanding defensive centerfielder of his time (if not the greatest ever). The young man, who would go on to make a play simply known as “The Catch” just three years later in the 1954 World Series, was making highlight plays nightly in Minneapolis, including one catch climbing the wall in a style that Stew Thornley compared to Ken Griffey Jr. or Bo Jackson. Those who did not learn their lesson about the fleeting nature of superstar prospects from Campanella’s time in the Twin Cities four years earlier had only themselves to blame for missing out on Mays tearing the diamond at Nicollet Park. He was in town for an even shorter time. Although he was with the team for 38 days—one fewer than Campanella. To make matters worse, the Saints were on the road at the beginning of his stay with the team, and he left the team for New York while they were on another road trip, actually staying in the Twin Cities for just over two weeks. Mays didn’t even make it to June before leaving for New York. The spring weather had been poor, and many in town passed up a chance to see him, hoping to catch a game later in the season. So many had missed their opportunity that these people came to refer to themselves as the I Didn’t See Him Club. Mays, too, left a group of lifelong fans in Minnesota. To soften the blow, the owner of the Giants, Horace Stoneham, wrote a letter published in local newspapers thanking the Twin Cities for supporting Mays and the Millers, promising to send additional talented players. He never sent anyone like Mays. We can’t blame Stoneham for that, though, because only a handful of players in history are on Mays’s level—if anyone. That same year, he was named Rookie of the Year. Three years later, in 1954, he would make The Catch, win the World Series, and be named MVP. He won MVP again in 1965 and racked up 24 All-Star games in a 21-year career (the math checks out, I promise). Mays ranks fifth all-time in WAR, per Baseball Reference, with 660 home runs (6th all-time) and 12 Gold Gloves. He was an all-around star, the likes of which we have not since seen. Mays, too, is enshrined in the chorus of Talkin’ Baseball and is one of the bastions of the sport. At 91, the 1979 Hall of Fame inductee still serves as one of the sport’s great ambassadors. And the last thing he did before becoming all-caps WILLIE MAYS was amaze the spectators who braved the weather to watch him play home games in Minneapolis. The sixth and seventeenth players to break the color barrier in MLB were Minnesota ballplayers the same year they made their historic entrances. Even if it was only for five weeks each, we should remember them in the annals of Minnesota baseball history. View full article

It’s interesting you mentioned Thielbar—he rarely threw more than an inning, and never more than two in a game. However, he was the most likely player to throw back-to-back, other than Joe Smith, which is almost like throwing more innings, because this team tries its darnedest to avoid back-to-backs. If the pen was full of guys who could pitch back-to-back like Thielbar, the lack of bulk innings wouldn’t be as big of a deal. Of course, many of those back-to-backs involved only getting a couple of lefties out on one of the days, but still.

Fans who were frustrated by the lack of a competent multi-inning reliever in 2022, and also are bewildered that Emilio Pagán is still on the team, may want to look away from their screens. Image courtesy of J Cogbill Photograpy Gone are the days of Terry Mulholland. At least in Minnesota, you will rarely see a strange man sitting at the end of the bullpen bench who will, five times a month, run in to pitch four or five innings of low-leverage relief, only to retreat into the shadows until the next week, when his arm is needed again. The Twins tried to employ such a pitcher in 2021 when Randy Dobnak broke camp with the club as a long reliever. However, the team struggled to find him regular work, which had two adverse effects—it used a bullpen spot, and Dobnak (who was very much in their plans fresh off his five-year extension) could not continue to develop with the erratic schedule. That is not to say that the team doesn’t send guys out to eat innings occasionally; it simply works differently in the modern game. Instead of retreating to the end of the bench, they typically ride the green line back to St. Paul in favor of a fresh arm. The bullpen seems set in most people’s minds, with some hierarchy featuring Jhoan Durán, Jorge López, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Emilio Pagán, Jorge Alcala, Jovani Moran, and Trevor Megill—each of whom has seen a good deal of Major League work. However, all are considered short relievers to one degree or another. This concentration of short relievers became a point of consternation in 2022, as the bullpen was stretched to cover four to six innings most nights. The team tried not to throw players on back-to-back games either, and you don’t need to be a math major to understand why that’s untenable with an eight-man bullpen. Twins Manager Rocco Baldelli doesn’t want to face that again this year, and a long reliever is a big part of that. “I personally think our best bullpen has, and always has, one option that can give you 50-75 pitches out of the bullpen. I’d like to carry someone like that at all times.”, Rocco said Friday to Twins Daily’s John Bonnes and the other Twins beat writers. “Is that going to be the case? No, we probably won’t be able to do that in all 162. But I think having someone like in the vast majority of our games will be very helpful. I also think we have those guys.” Given that, we may see the likes of Cole Sands, Josh Winder, Jordan Balazovic, Ronny Henriquez, or Brent Headrick called up to do something similar. Sands, Winder, Henriquez, and Headrick may be prime candidates, as they seem most likely to be relievers eventually (though Henriquez is also dealing with a sore elbow.). Calling a player up like this is more the exception than the rule when it comes to divvying up innings, though. Although the Twins could roster someone like Dobnak or Sands to be a-low leverage option, it’s debatable whether that will happen practically. I’m interested in speculating on how the Twins might get bulk work from this group—even if that doesn’t mean employing a true fulltime long reliever. I dug through 2022 usage patterns for Twins relievers with more than 15 innings and five relief appearances.Four types of usage profiles emerged in doing this. Short Relief The first is true short relief. Players like Joe Smith, Thielbar, López, and Michael Fulmer rarely threw more than an inning, and none had an appearance of two or more innings. They were also the most likely to be used on back-to-back days, with each over 20% of their appearances on zero days’ rest. Long Relief On the other side of the spectrum were pitchers predominantly used in long relief. There were two of those guys—Sands and Aaron Sanchez. Sanchez threw five relief outings, pitching 5, 3.1, 3, 3, and 1.2 innings. Had he been on the roster all season, he would have been a true long reliever, but he only filled this role in September after rosters were expanded. However, the Twins signed him as a minor league free agent this winter, so he is another option to fill this role at least partially. Multi-Inning Relief Then we get to the guys who were used somewhere in the middle, which is probably the modern version of a long reliever. Some of these guys were green line regulars, like Moran and Jharel Cotton. They threw more than one inning between 25% and 50% of the time, often when ahead by more than four runs or trailing. Although Moran and Cotton were sent down after multi-inning appearances several times, Trevor Megill remained on the roster after his initial call-up in 2022, despite having options remaining and throwing more than an inning 30% of the time. Megill’s usage was a bit all over the place in terms of leverage, and he may present the biggest question mark regarding his role for the 2023 bullpen, assuming he breaks camp with the team. Role Changers Finally, we have a group of pitchers that fluctuated between groups. The most pleasant surprises last year were Durán and Jax. Both players began the season as freshly-converted starters pitching multiple innings in the middle innings, but they transformed into predominantly one-inning guys. Both threw more than an inning about a quarter of the time, but most of those appearances came at the beginning of the year. For example, Jax recorded more than three outs just thrice in the last 100 games of the season. In the opposite direction, Emilio Pagán and Tyler Duffey began the season as single-inning options. They were converted into Cotton-esque innings-eaters by the end of the season due to performance reasons. Pagán, in particular, was an interesting case, as he took on more innings but was also relied on to throw in back-to-back games quite often. If there is one positive trait most can agree on, it’s that Pagán possesses a rubber arm. So What Will We See? At the beginning of the season, at least, the betting money would have to be on Megill, Moran, and Pagán being run out for multi-inning appearances. Suppose Pagán continues his improvements from late in the year (ironically in his new, low-leverage role). In that case, he may be in line for a hybrid role, lower on the bullpen hierarchy, but still trusted in some close games, depending on the rest status of other arms. Many fans are clamoring for Moran to be used as a second lefty rather than a long reliever, and if he develops control, he may be more suited for that role. Similarly, if Megill stops leaving balls middle-middle, he can ride his 100 MPH fastball a long way. Bulk innings may be given to whichever arm is freshest from that group, and if one emerges as a primary or secondary setup man, they may actually lead the bullpen in innings, taking the Griffin Jax path. There may be a rotating cast of waiver claims, semi-prospects, and minor league veterans at the end of the pen, soaking up innings before returning to St. Paul, or being jettisoned into the sun, never to be seen or heard from again. However, between Pagán, Moran, and Megill, the Twins may have a group who can fill multiple innings at a time while also seeing a moderate amount of medium-to-high-leverage innings. View full article

I really appreciate it. I have a second topic I’m working on that probably won’t be enough for a full article, but I’ll be posting it on my blog, Brewed in the Trough here on TD sometime this week. Keep an eye out for it!

It had more meanings in those days than it does now, but one of them was "poor, white, southerner." No one can agree on where the original name came from, though. Edit: another tie, the Atlanta Crackers (the white team) was a minor league affiliate of the Twins in 1964.