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Beast

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Everything posted by Beast

  1. Beast
    I’m not overly excited about Ober starting game 1. But, I agree that he’s the best option. If we can somehow steal game one with an offensive outburst, having Verlander out of the way with Lopez and Gray lined up would look pretty good.
  2. Beast
    Any lineup featuring a batting order of Altuve, Bergman, Alvarez, Tucker, Abreu, and Brantley is extremely scary. They also have a competent player like Dubon, and Jeremy Pena, who had a a career playoff OPS over 1.000 in 60 ABs. Verlander is the most experienced playoff starter we’ll ever see. He’s started 34 games, won 16, has struck out over one guy per inning. Talk about his decline all you want, but his ERA this year was 3.22 with a 1.12 WHIP. Those are right in line with his career numbers. Framber Valdez is arguably the best LHP in the game (and we can’t hit lefties). He’s started 12 playoff games and won 7 with a 3.41 ERA and 75 K in 68 innings. Cristian Javier has pitched 32 postseason innings as a 26 year old with a 2.20 ERA and 48 Ks in 32 innings, WHIP well under 1. Urquidy has struck out a batter per inning over 36 playoff innings with a 3.72 ERA. Pressly has struck out 48 over 38 playoff innings with a 2.56 ERA. Stanek has struck out 20 over 16 playoff innings in 19 games with a 1.69 ERA and a .69 WHIP. Neris has a 1.5 ERA, .33 WHIP, 9 Ks in 8 playoff appearances Graveman, 1.64 ERA over 9 appearances. Montero, 1.93 ERA 10 appearances. Maton 1.15 ERA 15 appearances. Oh, and they know Carlos Correa at the plate like the back of their hand. Take out Maeda, who hasn’t been used yet, and we have 17 playoff appearances across our entire pitching staff before this season. The high leverage guys (Duran, Jax, Stewart, Thielbar, Varland) have 1 appearance combined before this season. The offensive side is pretty barren outside of Correa also (Vasquez has some experience, but awful offensive numbers). The Astros don’t care about the regular season. They don’t miss Springer and Correa. They’re the current defending champs. Their core has been in the World Series 4 of the last 6 World Series, winning 2 of them. Let’s not try and fool ourselves. This is the team to beat this time of year, and it’s not even close. Can they be beaten? Sure. But, we should be very, very concerned about this series. I’d rather play any other team in baseball. They are loaded with elite playoff performers with cast iron cannonballs between their legs.
  3. Beast
    Walker JenkinsBrooks LeeEmmanuel RodriguezMarco RayaDavid FestaCharlee SotoBrandon WinokurDanny De AndradeCory LewisCJ CulpepperJose RodriguezTanner SchobelLuke KeaschallConnor PrielippTanner HallKala'i RosarioYasser MercedesAustin MartinYunior SeverinoZebby Matthews
  4. Beast
    There is more to it than a stupid decision by Toronto’s manager. That really has nothing to with Baldelli. There is more to it than Lopez and Gray’s starts in this series. There is no “myth.” Who is complaining about it right now? We have seen Baldelli pull pitchers at questionable times. He’s not made those types of decisions lately, that I can recall. Not sure what the article is driving at. That Baldelli has never made any questionable calls? That people have issues with decisions he’s previously made were wrong? That everyone else is doing it, so it’s OK? I think we just saw what can happen when a manager overanalyzes. I think we saw Baldelli do that that multiple times in the series with pinch hits. It just happened that the decisions didn’t come back into question because of a loss. But, I would’ve questioned if, for example, we lost a game or the series because Willy Castro struck out and grounded into a double play with the bases juiced in late inning situations, when it could have been Matt Wallner at the plate. Or, if Jax blew the game to Guerrero or Bichette in the 8th where he could’ve used Duran. Or, if Polanco committed a fourth costly error or misplay because Baldelli kept running him out there. Baldelli has done plenty of questionable things in his career. He made plenty of questionable calls in that series. Let’s be careful in crowning him because Lewis, Lopez, Gray, Correa and a nails bullpen carried him to one wild card series win against a Blue Jays team that looked lost. He needs to show me more.
  5. Beast
    I’ve never felt better about about a Twins team making a run in the playoffs in my life. ‘87 and ‘91 excluded because I was barely alive. That’s a low bar to clear. I’m still not overly confident. I’m so jaded from decades of following this team, a nagging voice in the back my head is still telling they’ll lose the next 2. Also, some things that transpired last night still make me nervous. We need someone other than Lewis to hit a baseball. They might just start walking him to clog the bases since he can’t run. We can’t rely on an uncharacteristically erratic pitcher and tipped pitches to draw out long ABs and walks. We couldn’t capitalize on some RISP opportunities or against late in the game against some average relievers. We can’t keep taking our 3 best on-base and power threats out of the lineup in the middle of the game leaving Castro and Solano to hit with the bases loaded in key spots. We can’t make multiple defensive miscues. We’re going to be tested tonight. Berrios will have some extra motivation. Gray isn’t known as a big game pitcher or going deep in games, and we used our best bullpen arms last night. Can’t wait to see the lineup, but if I’m Baldelli, I’m trying to find a way to give Polanco a seat tonight.
  6. Beast
    Lopez and Lewis were amazing. Bullpen was amazing. Correa and Taylor’s defense, though. They deserve just as much credit. We lose if Correa doesn’t pull a Jeter on Polanco’s gaffe and Taylor doesn’t catch Chapman‘s deep fly to right center.
  7. Beast
    Really disappointed that Buxton can’t go. Say what you want, but even as a pinch runner or pinch hitter against a lefty, he could make a huge impact if somewhat healthy. Id also like to see Larnach, if healthy. Pinch hitter for Taylor late in the game against a righty. But, as stated, nothing egregious here.
  8. Beast
    Pretty simple what got them there. Incompetent roster management. They’ve (referring to all applicable Twins FOs) done a decent job in putting together a starting point. But, they stop short. They don’t do enough in the off-season, and either sit on their hands at the deadline or make a bad trade. Everyone else gets better, while they stay stagnant, so they’re almost always at a talent deficit in the postseason. You lose 18 straight by having inferior players. Also, horrendously one sided umpiring. Some of those Yankees losses were some of the most blatantly biased officiating I’ve ever seen in any sport at any level.
  9. Beast
    They should have another champaign celebration if they avoid the Astros.
  10. Beast
    Do they deserve to be division champs and locking up a playoff spot right now? No, not really. In any other season or division, they’d likely be praying to make up 4-5 games in the past 7-8 games to scrape by as the third wildcard. Also, their 3 best players might not available, or may be extremely limited, for the first round. Hard to not let that take the shine off a bit. They did it, though. They’ve finished strong. They’re finally not leaning on the previous regimes talent. Anything can happen in the playoffs. There are some things to be happy about, here. But, for those who seem to think this vindicates the FO, I can’t get on board with that yet. Win a series and I’ll start listening.
  11. Beast
    Castro has done nothing but come up big when given the opportunity. Credit to him and the FO. Finishing a couple of games back of the #2 will feel like a big missed opportunity. Huge difference in having to play someone like Houston in round one, or sitting and waiting with home field for round two. Being a little more proactive with the bullpen could’ve changed that. Not only acquiring somebody, but shuffling roles. Letting Jax run up 10 losses feels like it could’ve been avoided, among others. Regardless of when/where/who we play, it’ll be an uphill battle if we don’t have Correa and Lewis. I’ve seen “good news” on potential injuries go up in flames too many times to be comforted.
  12. Beast
    I would do it again in a heartbeat. We have guys that can replace Arraez, to an extent. I like Julien at second long-term. If he fizzles, we have guys like Lee, Martin, Schobel in the system. The way Polanco has been playing, maybe he comes back. It’s not hard to find a 1B that can hit a little bit. We have a few guys in the organization, and they’re dime-a-dozen on the market. It would be impossible for the Twins to replace Lopez. He’s a workhorse with a sub 3.5 ERA and a million strikeouts, capable of silencing the premier lineups in the game. He’s only 27 and locked up through 2027 at a fairly reasonable rate. Additionally, I’m not convinced there’s going to be longevity for Arraez as the premier average hitter in the game. He’s missed a lot of time in his career. He doesn't hit for a ton of extra base power, and can’t play any premier defensive positions. For some context, his career OPS is exactly .800. Max Kepler is OPSing .803 this year. He’s having a much better year than his career averages this year (.842 OPS, nearly 5 WAR), but is that sustainable? Arraez is also going to have to get paid at some point, and it’s going to be significant. I’d rather be locked in to Lopez than Arraez. Finally, to date, Arraez’s WPA in the playoffs is -0.10. His cWPA is -1.0%. That’s only 5 games, but has provided negative value in the playoffs despite a pretty darn good first series against the Yankees. Bottom line is, the drop off from Lopez to his potential replacement, is much greater than the drop off from Arraez to his replacement.
  13. Beast
    Overall, a decent outing from the bullpen. 1 run in 5 innings. But, hard to keep that perspective. You’re not going to hold many leads right now when Floro, Pagan, and Jax are going 4 innings. Nobody outside of Duran and Thielbar have any business being anywhere near a high leverage inning in the playoffs.
  14. Beast
    We can’t have both Gallo and Wallner on the roster, IMO. Gallo has a leg up at first glance with his defensive flexibility. I was also about to comment on his experience as well. But, shockingly, Gallo has played in 1 playoff game (a second as a late inning defensive replacement). I think Wallner has a better chance contributing as a late inning pinch hitter, which is about all either should be used for. At the end of the day, flip a coin and pick one, then leave them on the bench as much as possible. They’re the same guy.
  15. Beast
    Sure would be nice to find a place for Kirilloff and Larnach against RHP right now. Both are on fire. Wallner has gone fairly cold. It looks even worse if you take out the BP against a position player. Julien is slashing .236/.367/.303 over the past 30 games. The OBP is very good, but could use a little more thump from someone hitting in a prominent lineup slot. We all know how Gallo has been playing. Bring up Kirilloff and Larnach. Get them some major league ABs before the playoffs. Gallo and Stevenson are expendable.
  16. Beast
    Nothing is more satisfying as a fan than to see the guys Cleveland claimed, likely just to block them from the Twins, contribute to both of their losses. That’s what’s it’s come to for Cleveland as an organization. They absolutely stink, so all they can do is try to play spoiler for others.
  17. Beast
    I’m not advocating he go anywhere, but Wallner’s emergence may be slowing a bit. Over the 13 games he’s played, he has 7 hits, 4 RBIs, and 15 Ks. If he has a bad series against Cleveland and Larnach keeps hitting, you have to start thinking about it.
  18. Beast
    It is in their control. They needed bullpen help. They could’ve traded for Lopez. They could’ve signed Matt Moore for relative peanuts. Everything breaking wrong for this team (except injuries to an extent) isn’t an accident. They put themselves in the position. That said, dumb loophole that allows one team to load up like that. It should go in some sort of order. Maybe based on priority assigned by the team to each player they submit a claim for. Once you claim one player, you go to the back of the line on the next one.
  19. Beast
    There is zero chance that the Twins would lay out the kind of contract to sign Ohtani. Especially with the Correa contract on the books. There is zero chance Ohtani would have any interest in coming to Minnesota. Who wants to come to this dumpster fire (of a State and a baseball team)? Who wants to be part of the most laughable losing streak in postseason history in any sport (when the division incompetent enough for us to sneak in)? Who wants to be part of half-assed rosters, where investments in players are made more for PR purposes than to win (look at this damn bullpen, you can’t tell me they’re trying). Who wants to come in and perpetually kick the can down the road waiting for some fairy tale wave of prospects that has never and will never arrive while you waste your career away in obscurity? We used to be able to sell Minneapolis as a pristine, safe, vibrant, artistic, innovative, etc. city with a low cost of living. Now it’s just a dump with one of the highest state tax rates in the country. No better quality of life or less corrupt than any other city with a team. You’d do just as well to live in LA or NY. The only difference is the market is smaller. Oh, and Minnesota Nice hasn’t been thing in the City for decades. I’ve been a Twins fan for my entire life, and even I wouldn’t sign with this franchise right now without a huge premium. Why in God’s name would one of the biggest international athletes in the world (in any sport) come to baseball and purgatory?
  20. Beast
    There were some boneheaded mistakes in this one, and the Rangers are awful right now, but still a good series win to keep the division lead at 6.
  21. Beast
    I’m concerned. Regardless of the reason why he’s struggled. When he’s at his best he’s absolutely dominant. The bullpen is built around him. There’s nobody else. If he’s throwing arrow straight and getting knocked around to the tune of a 4.50+ ERA, he’s a liability. There’s big time playoff implications there.
  22. Beast
    Yep, this is a huge problem. Look at that loaded position player group on the 26 man. Willy Castro, Donovan Solano, Kyle Farmer, Joey Gallo, Michael Taylor, Jordan Luplow, overcooked Jorge Polanco and Christian Vasquez….not to mention the guys set to walk like Kepler….how are we ever going to find ABs for top prospects with such a dynamic group of studs?! We just may have to donate players to a less fortunate team to clear out some of these all-time greats. We currently have 3 position players on the active roster that I could care to keep. Jeffers, Correa, Wallner. Buxton, Lewis, and Alex K. can’t stay on the field and never will. We have 1 position player prospect in the top 100 that’s even remotely close to the majors, and he’s probably got another year. It’s absurd to look at this team, the active roster vs IL, recent performance, history, etc. and think we’re fresh out of space for talent. It can be argued team has the worst roster, and maybe even farm system, from AA up, of any team near .500 or better in the MLB. We have more roster space than we know what to do with.
  23. Beast
    Don’t put it past this team to miss the playoffs. They’re doing all they can to keep Cleveland in it.
  24. Beast
    This team can barely keep its head above water with quality starting pitching. If we have to use Dobnak, we’re in trouble.
  25. Beast
    Larnach just doesn’t seem to do anything overly impressive. He’s had some moments, but is just kind of there. It’s early, but Wallner seems to have more “splash” plays (to steal a football term). Not only at the plate but in the field. They could very well end up having similar careers. That may be the most likely outcome. A few years as journeyman type, slightly above replacement level, corner OFers. It’s too early to say Wallner is a known commodity. Guys get off to hot starts. But, Wallner is out to an early lead.
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