Rod Carews Birthday

For some bizarro reason Brooks Lee still seems to be regarded as the guy who must be a good player because of . . . pedigree. . . polish. . . intangibles. . . reasons. . . I just don’t get it. He is probably at best a utility guy, but I would prefer my utility guys to either hit better or field a LOT better. Is he as good as Al Newman? Nicky Punto? Willi Castro? Marwin Gonzalez? Even Nick Gordon? I think that the idea that a prospect “has a high floor” is like saying a player is “scrappy” or “hustles” or “battles his tail off”. It probably means he’s not good enough to be evaluated positively on his actual performance. As Charles Barkley has been known to say, “It means he can’t play.”

The 2027 season is a LONG ways away, and we’ve been down the path of “this certainly will happen” before. Yet, when the time came, it was long forgotten. The only reasonable assumption is that you try to compete every year and put the best team on the field that you can. COULD there be a partial lost season in 2027? Sure. But it is hardly a done deal. I’m betting that the owners won’t want to take the chance on alienating their dwindling fan base. As for tanking to build the next championship team, first of all, this isn’t the NBA, where a single player can make an immense difference. Draft picks, even amazing ones, aren’t going to play in the majors right away. Prospects in baseball are a very inexact science. AND, perhaps most importantly, do you have the faith that our current FO should be trying to build the NEXT team?

You are correct in that the starting rotation provides an excellent foundation, and that the offense could at least be OK (although I'd prefer better than that). However, as currently constructed, the bullpen is a disaster area. People say that it will all be fine with late additions and converted starters. Perhaps. . . . but that takes time, and the team that at full strength sometime in July might be playing at an 85 win pace might have already lost enough games at a 60 - 70 win pace that it won't matter. Make some trades for some bullpen pieces (or sign someone)! If we don't do that then it probably makes little difference what else happens.

The definition of pipeline is very simple, but the implication and connotation of pipeline in sports is that there is a succession of quality players coming through it (think Iowa Hawkeyes Tight Ends). Not sure where the Twins (or most teams for that matter) have a a pipeline at virtually any position. The players highlighted seem very “average” and most will never sniff the majors, however, they are still professionals and are out there to win baseball games. Calling them part of a pipeline sets unrealistic expectations and does them a disservice.

Ranking prospects (or teams for that matter) is a fun activity but the reality is that all of these players have a 1st to 100th percentile range of outcomes. So, all things being equal, this ranking is reasonable. However, someone in this group is likely to have an 80th percentile career and someone will have a 20th percentile career, and for the most part, that will determine their ultimate value to the Twins (or some other team if we trade them). I think the most important statement is that there are several players that can make a claim to being #2 in the pecking order, plus a few more that weren’t mentioned in the article. That’s ultimately a good sign for the team if we can get all of these guys to perform in the majors.

I agree with most of the posters on this topic. It isn’t that the activity is early or late, it’s that it is poorly chosen. I can definitely get behind the Bell and Caratini signings, but it’s only a start. Falvey has certainly made some decent signings late, and has probably saved a little money,, but a greater number of them have proven ill-advised and mediocre. What I do like about this article is that it reinforces that there are still players out there to be signed, even if we as fans would rather all of the holes had been filled and a big bow put on the offseason by now. For now, I will keep hoping for some good signings/trades that will help move the needle in the right direction.

Good luck! I hope he can make his second all-star appearance there. I'm glad the Twins didn't sign him because I don't think he really fits that well, but I wish him the absolute best in Denver.

SWR was solid last season -- everything that you would expect from a #4 type starter and maybe a little bit more. Ober, our supposed #3, pitched more like a #5, and at times like a guy that didn't belong in the rotation. If last year is the barometer, Ober seems to be trending down and SWR seems to be trending up, or at least even. IF Ober can fix his issues, he's probably better, but I'm only giving that about a 25% chance of happening. If I have to pick between the two, TODAY I'm picking SWR. Can Ober come back or was his success built with smoke and mirrors? Not sure.

An awful lot of questions. . . . not many answers. I don't think it is unusual for a team to go into a season with an unsolved problem or two, but this team has a ridiculous number of them.

Ugh.

We got rid of Gasper? Wow! Great trade! Oh, and we got a guy? Even better. I know it wasn’t actually a trade but was effectively one for a guy who may not inspire but whose profile fits the team’s needs better than Gasper. Not amazing but tinkering like this is valuable if you can get it right.

ABSOLUTELY!

I think far too much is being made about Joe Ryan’s supposed disgruntlement with the MN Twins. Probably the most controversial thing he has said was about being surprised and finding difficulty with motivation after the trade deadline. That makes him. . . human. I’m sure it was very tough seeing his friends and colleagues dealt away and having to continue to pitch for an obviously depleted team. The fact that he came around to the party line about “positioning for the future” speaks volumes to his ongoing commitment. He’s also no fool. The better he pitches, the better his payday will be in the future. Joe Ryan will be fine. If only the rest of the team were as big of a problem as he is. He’s going to arbitration as a rising pitching talent in the league. This is not an uncommon development in MLB. That’s why arbitration exists. Jose Berrios did the same thing (and lost). He would like more money and while I think he likely deserves it based on his production, the team would like to not pay him more money. At the end of the day, baseball is still a business and he is an employee trying to get the best payday he can. I wish my job worked that way. I think I could have made a little more money.

Patience. Patience. Patience. This is the time of year when everyone assumes that every prospect will be the franchise savior and become a start. He might be, but it's far too early to worry about how agressively they will push him in the minors. If he is awesome and healthy, and continues to be awesome and healthy, he will be up quickly. Unfortunately development is rarely a straight line ascension.

I think the big questions in here are 1.) Can they figure out a way to build a good bullpen on the fly? And 2.) Can they expect any improvement from their younger players? First the bullpen. I’m going to go on record and say that bullpens are almost always a crapshoot. The last two years, on paper, the Twins should have had one of the very best bullpens in baseball (pre-deadline). They were OK, but weren’t amazing. On the other hand, some of the other lesser regarded bullpens pre-season wound up being pretty good. I’m not saying that they shouldn’t try. They absolutely should sign someone or several someones to bolster the unit. It might work. It might not. Not very predictable. Second, the younger hitters. Wallner was better two and three years ago, so it’s not a stretch to think he might be better than last year. Lewis SEEMS to be finding his way a bit more. I’m going to bank on his talent shining through. It might not, but it’s not crazy. Lee. I’m not a fan, but he can’t likely be worse than he was last year at hitting. All three point to improvement. NOT stardom, but above average bats. The young-young guys — ERod, Jenkins, Gonzalez, Keaschall, etc. Keaschall isn’t going to be better this year on a rate basis than last year, however his counting stats might be better as he plays more games by staying healthy, thus making him more valuable. The three potential rookies look very promising and are as likely as anyone’s rookies to make it. I can feel reasonably OK about this group. Will they make .500? Maybe, maybe not. It’s hardly guaranteed but it is certainly not a ridiculous thought. Plus, it gives me as a fan some hope that the Twins might be worth watching. YMMV..

I would agree that I'm not a fan of this happening either. However, I think it is appropriate to poke a bit at this pristine athlete with very strange views. It was stupid. He got caught. No sympathy from me. Before someone says "what about all of those guys that didn't get caught?", I don't think it's possible to determine that someone was using if they didn't get caught. I certainly think that it's a whole lot more likely that they were clean than guys who did get caught. This is likely game - set - match for Mr. Kepler.

The question is whether it is best to throw a lot of money at a couple of guys at the "top" of the class, or is it better to cast a really wide net. This goes against my nature, but I think that casting the wide net might be just as, or more, effective. There is SO much room to be wrong on these not-fully formed athletes, that having more (with obviously more misses) may help find that one or two that will do well.

@RandBalls Stu, you are one of the primary reasons that I come to Twins Daily. Your posts are everything satirical posts should be -- funny, ironic, reflective, and giving one the wonder that they might possibly be true. Don't ever stop!

The Twins undoubtedly have a large number of pitchers that would probably be best served by spending time facing major league hitters. That doesn't mean that they will all be successful major league starters, but for now they are on that trajectory. However, with 3/5 (probably 4/5 if Ober is still here in April) of the rotation spots spoken for, there isn't a lot of room. Certainly someone can (and should) go to St. Paul, but that still leaves Zebby, Festa, Bradley, and Abel fighting for one spot, and that's without the assumed transition to the bullpen for Raya and Prielipp. I'm not that optimistic that Ober is going to come back and be successful this season, so I look at trading him for an established reliever and a flyer on a lower level player. I'm also trying to trade Larnach for a reliever as well -- but there's plenty of room there. In my mind, you give all four of the guys plenty of chances in the spring, send down the guy who has identifiable specific things to work on, move the one short on stamina to the bullpen, and go from there. That still gives you an extra one, but don't worry, someone will get hurt. Every team has that happen to them every year and the 2026 Twins will be no different. If you get TWO of the young guys tearing it up, then trading a starter at the deadline will be decidedly less painful for everyone involved.

Yuck. Hopefully there is some bounce in one or more of these guys this year. We should at least get some sense of that during spring training. My hope is that all of these guys are on a short leash and not guys that we are going to trot out there every day regardless of what they are doing. For all of the weeping and gnashing of teeth over Manny Margot (and I definitely wept and gnashed), he had both a better track record AND hit better than these guys did last year. Yikes! It feels like a hold my beer moment for the front office!

This is kind of a weird stat, but it’s interesting none-the-less. I think you are very correct in saying that it is more favorable to position players in general and highly punitive to relief pitchers. Those guys largely go unnoticed unless they blow the game and don’t get enough credit for the “hold”. What I am most skeptical about is that this stat is or isn’t predictive or really that representative of a player’s output. How much is just luck? How much is opportunity, and opportunity cost? Interesting exercise (and thanks for doing the work), but not entirely sure what it tells us.

The first part of the list, 16-20, made me a little queasy and generally unexcited. Spots 11-15 made me feel a little better. Now, 6-10 at least make me feel like there is some potential there. The two pitchers at the back end are unproven but certainly promising. Buxton, while frustrating at times, is still Buxton. I'm a big E-Rod fan. I don't know if his act will play in the majors, but it certainly could if he can stay healthy. He probably has just as good a shot at Rookie of the Year as Walker Jenkins -- who actually scares me a little. I honestly like your take on SWR. He gets absolutely no love from anyone but still has managed to be a mostly productive pitcher that keeps the back of the rotation from being a big mess. If he's our #4/5, I'm pleased because it means we've got a pretty good #1-3 (come on Ober!). He feels like the opposite of Brooks Lee, the guy who everyone "just knew" would be a star who "can't miss" and has proven nothing. SWR, on the other hand, (and I know he had a good pedigree coming over from Toronto), everyone seems to want to write off as a mere placeholder, and yet, here he is, still holding down a spot in the rotation. Barring injury, he'll still be in the rotation in 2027 as well, and that's what makes him valuable.

While it's obvious that in MLB not all markets are created equal, I find it very difficult to imagine how they could have lost that much money only from their baseball team. Do I think that they could have lost it in the commercial real estate market? Sure, but the choice to pin that on the Twins was theirs, not the fault of the gods, the fans, the players, or the management. This really is the same playbook, just repeated with different "fill in the blanks" style numbers. Time for a new playbook and new ownership. A couple of weeks ago, I stated that I would happily give Tom Pohlad a chance to be a good CEO, provided he came through on changing the narrative. It's not looking positive so far. Clock is ticking Tom. Clock is ticking.

The good news, if there is any, is that there are plenty of guys who can ride the St. Paul express back and forth between AAA and MLB. That means that they will probably have in essence a 10 or 11 man bullpen, rather than an 8 man bullpen. Not that all of those guys will be successful, but it does create a backup plan to the backup plan. Would a veteran reliever with closing experience be nice? Sure. You bet. But I don't think it's a disaster at all without one. Duran, Nathan, Guardado were all failed starters who we counted on to become shut down relievers, and they did it -- without any closing experience. I recall some guy named Hawkins also did something like that. He might be useful this year.

Rabbits. . . . just like rabbits.