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Rod Carews Birthday

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Everything posted by Rod Carews Birthday

  1. Rod Carews Birthday
    Certainly it was a close race as all three were excellent, but I actually would perceive Mauer's omission as a slight. I do think that coastal bias is a real thing, and yes, you are correct that St. Louis isn't on a coast (last time I checked), I can't really explain it, except for long, long baseball traditions, but the Cardinals (and the Cubs actually) usually get the same sort of favorable coverage/outlook from the national media that teams like the Twins, Brewers, Royals, White Sox, et al. never receive. The most obvious ways are direct and immediate, but the more insidious part is that the continuous glorification and coverage of those teams does lead to a different perception of them by the public on an ongoing basis. You may not or may not agree with me, but I think it happens all the time professional sports. I don't like it, but I can't do anything about it either.
  2. Rod Carews Birthday
    Things like this happen (to every team). That is why and how the MLB draft is massively different than the NFL or NBA drafts which are much more projectable -- and even those teams miss a lot. In baseball, it's a pretty big crapshoot as to who will actually progress enough to become a major league player, let alone a star. This one didn't work out, but so did many, many others for the Twins, and for every ML team.
  3. Rod Carews Birthday
    I did check this year. It's not great, but his track record is impossible to ignore. And yet, we would base how much leeway to give Wallner on a season in which he has been injured (and probably is still a bit hobbled) approximately half the games and not on his track record? By those standards, Buxton would be long gone and we would have DFA'd Joe Ryan two years ago when he was trying to pitch through injury (ill-advisedly as it was). You should check some rosters. I'm certain that the Dodgers would love to have him in LF, the Guardians would take him in RF, the Royals would love to have him anywhere in the outfield, the Astros would love to have his bat somewhere, and the Phillies would gladly trade him even up for Max Kepler. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that at least three of those teams are playoff teams.
  4. Rod Carews Birthday
    I’m sure he’s not being brought in to be a part of the rotation in the majors. He’s exactly the kind of signing that every team makes of “guy that is capable of starting a game in the majors and we don’t really care what we do with him afterwards”. That way, they can bring him up in a pinch, have him start a game or two (or long relief) and either demote or cut him and are no worse off. At the moment, between injuries and ineffectiveness, things are a little lean in the starting pitching department.
  5. Rod Carews Birthday
  6. Rod Carews Birthday
    Well, prior to this year he had approximately one year (a little bit more) of plate appearances with some pretty excellent results (35 HR, 131 OPS+). This year, in approximately 20% of a season’s worth of plate appearances (remember, he was out with an injury for quite a while), he’s so terrible that he is still at a 99 OPS+. So, based on his track record, I think he is worth taking more time on. He has been, and still is a good player, but not an MVP candidate. We need more of those, not less. As to whether he is a positive asset, it seems fairly obvious that he is. If you want to “sell any positive asset and rebuild”, be ready for some very sad baseball for the rest of the year and next year at least. We don’t have a bunch of prospects that are MLB ready and breaking down the door to replace the traded players, and it is likely any prospects acquired will be a year (or a few) away from the majors as well. Would it be as bad as last year’s White Sox? Maybe. Maybe not, but I would just as soon allow them to keep that dubious distinction and not put that in the record books on the Twins ledger.
  7. Rod Carews Birthday
    Trading Castro won’t surprise me — and if they fading to the trade deadline, they absolutely should do that. Trading Larnach in some ways makes the most sense. I don’t think he has nearly the ceiling that Wallner has, plus he’s closer to free agency than Wallner. As with every trade, the return is key, and I’m not sure that Houston has the prospects (that they are willing to part with) that the Twins would want in exchange. If the Twins become true sellers at the deadline, fans should be ready to get some underwhelming returns for players that they are fond of. Most of the time, the prospects won’t see the majors for a while and in the meantime the team is likely to really sink. Without prospects knocking down the door in the minors, the potential of having a good season next year is also very low. I would like to see the Twins do a little selling and a little buying at the deadline. The priorities should be a controllable catcher and some sort of big bat. However, just know that it’s going to take some chips to make those things happen. I don’t think that going “all in” makes sense, nor does tearing it all down.
  8. Rod Carews Birthday
    The problem is that people watch player performances like day traders on the stock market. Take the longer view. He will be fine.
  9. Rod Carews Birthday
    I am in complete agreement. The answer is VERY few teams and a few don't really have any. If what someone was/is looking for is a bulletproof bunch of five starters, all dependable to start a playoff game, well good luck. Maybe being a Dodger fan is in your future, and even they are having a few issues. However, the Twins have had MUCH more success building a pitching staff in the past five years than they had in most of the previous 30 years. I call that a win. Whether it fits the contrived notion of "pitching pipeline" is irrelevant. Unfortunately, someone (perhaps on TD?) coined that term and it has become the meme by which everything is measured and critiqued. Retire the term and just enjoy some decent pitching while we have it.
  10. Rod Carews Birthday
    Perhaps I didn’t convey the nuances of this very clearly. I didn’t make that comparison because I thought that Festa and/or Matthews were destined to become Twins legends like Viola, Radke, and Santana. I made it to make the point that the first couple of years in the majors are difficult for nearly all players — pitchers in particular. Since Viola, Radke, and Santana also struggled initially, it should also help to dispel the notion that a lack of instant success dooms Festa, Matthew’s, et al. to failure. You chose to make this about chronological age, which is not a concept without merit, but that was not my argument. Judging from your post, it seems like you are maybe 75-25% that age is the determining factor. I am probably 75-25% the other direction. Obviously, we come at this from different directions, and that’s OK for both of us. For the record, I wish your son the best in his football pursuits, but it seems likely that he has less in common with JJ Watt than any current Twins pitcher has with a former Twins pitcher. I don’t think these guys are about to become legends, but completely writing them off because of their age doesn’t really work for me. YMMV.
  11. Rod Carews Birthday
    Keep it classy!
  12. Rod Carews Birthday
    Castro, I believe, was DFA'd before the Twins got him. That's not a glowing recommendation for bringing him up early either. IF the player is ready at a younger age, of course that bears for greater success because as they hit their prime they will be even better, but you can't will them to be successful just by putting them there.
  13. Rod Carews Birthday
    I'm not comparing at their chronological ages. I'm comparing their first couple of years in the league. I'm not suggesting that the two of them will become these star pitchers. I'm merely suggesting that Viola, Radke, and Santana weren't world beaters the first year or two they were in the majors. As I said earlier, if you want guys who are going to dominate the competition (or even be really competitive) right out of the gate, it's going to be a mostly disappointing endeavor, but I will applaud greatly if the Twins uncover one. Bert Blyleven was pretty dominant at 19 years old, but he's in the Hall of Fame. I'll be very happy with good solid MLB starting pitcher as my measure.
  14. Rod Carews Birthday
    Yes it does. And it also does with the Twins many times. But, it doesn't exist anywhere all the time. As for the original issue with Brooks Lee, there is always the chance that the great high school player, excellent college player, and very good minor league player isn't quite up to the same standard at the major league level, for the aforementioned reasons. I hope that's not the case, but we don't know for sure yet.
  15. Rod Carews Birthday
    Fine. Your mileage varies. I get it. However, if you are going to sit around and wait for a pitcher to come up and dominate, it’s going to be a VERY long wait — on this team or any other. Those are very fluky things and we’ll see if he maintains it after 20 starts. Also, compared to the average pitcher in those years, Radke and Viola were probably on the low end of the spectrum for innings pitched per start. It was a different league and a different time. They certainly weren’t striking out as many hitters per nine innings as Matthews and Festa either, but that apparently doesn’t matter. .
  16. Rod Carews Birthday
    They are glorified rookies. VERY few pitchers come up and dominate. Viola didn’t. Radke didn’t. Not even Santana. They need developmental time, and so far, their early achievements mirror those of other good pitchers. Might they become disappointments? Sure, but it’s too early to decide that.
  17. Rod Carews Birthday
    Your point is well taken, but part of the issue is also that everything is harder in MLB than it is in college, or even AAA. The ball is hit harder, moves faster, comes off the bat weirder from better pitching, etc. I’m not defending, his lapses, but often it’s not as easy as trying harder, and equally often, that “hustle” is just false hustle or urgency produced by poor playing position.
  18. Rod Carews Birthday
    I’m pretty sure this would be too messy to actually figure out, but Bride, as a position player, pitching four times in 15 games has got to be some sort of (sad) record. Surely Elias must have stats on this some where.
  19. Rod Carews Birthday
    This is indeed my fear. On paper, if there is an actual budget that won’t just be stripped away when opportunity presents itself, subtracting substantial contract money should free up said money to be spent on new players moving forward. I’m not sure we can currently trust that this will happen. If it would happen, I would advocate for trading Pablo Lopez. He’s really good. I really like him. But, with Ober (who you can’t really trade right now), Ryan, and Lopez all being free agents in the same year, one of them has to go eventually, and Ryan and Ober are cheaper to hold onto. I recognize that this puts some trust into guys like Festa and Matthew’s, but they look as good as any young pitchers that we have had in the past, so I say take the chance.
  20. Rod Carews Birthday
    He’s probably great but Philip Humber and Dallas Braden pitched perfect games in the majors and that didn’t make them superstars. If the real analysis holds up, I’m fine with it. But don’t be distracted by the shiny object.
  21. Rod Carews Birthday
    You are definitely right that "assuming" debt is factored into the sticker price on most things, and I would be very pleased if you are right, but I'm not optimistic. When the $425M debt was made known, it was presented in a manner that suggested that the buyer would assume the debt. Otherwise, the debt is a non-issue, so why would it have been brought up?
  22. Rod Carews Birthday
    And that’s the scary part. It probably shouldn’t make the Twins more valuable but the Pohlads may think it does and hold on for a higher price that isn’t coming. Meanwhile, here we sit.
  23. Rod Carews Birthday
    Walker Jenkins I hope so, but injuries have been a real issue. . . I want to see him play!!Emmanuel Rodriguez I think he is sort of a much better version of Eduard Julien. Again. . . health!!Luke Keaschall I'm OK with #3 on Luke Keaschall. They hype train has gotten a little over the top (again) on him at the MLB level. Charlee Soto He's easily our best potential remaining pitching "official prospect". Let's wait and see what develops, but my fingers are crossed here. Andrew Morris I put more emphasis on proximity to the majors, and Morris looks like he could help us sooner rather than later. Not sure he's a front of the rotation guy, but as a #3 type guy, he could be super valuable. . . and soon! Kaelen Culpepper He's in the same "young prospect" club as Soto. Looks promising, but needs lots of development. Dasan Hill Super Intriguing, especially as a lefty, but so so so far away from the majors at this point. Billy Amick I like Amick a LOT. He could potentially be the good power corner infielder that we desperately need on the Twins. Brandon Winokur Maybe could be useful someday - a lot of all or nothing though. Kyle DeBarge Seems like a good prospect, but I don't think we know enough yet. Marco Raya The healthier, but more carefully monitored, pitching prospect than Prielipp. Not fully convinced on his ultimate value, but possibly a good bullpen arm. Connor Prielipp Talent. . . yes. We need some healthy pitching for an extended streak before he gets my vote to be inside the top 10. Gabriel Gonzalez Seems like he might be putting it back together after some less than stellar results. CJ Culpepper Sure he throws a lot of different pitches, but are they good enough to be useful at the MLB level?Khadim Diaw Maybe he could be the catcher #1 in the future. Looks pretty solid at CR.Yasser Mercedes Speaking of dreaming. . . I think he could really be special, but a lot more time is needed.Ricardo Olivar Seems like he could be catcher #2 in the making. PLEASE let this be true!Carson McCusker I really don't think that he will make it at the MLB level, but a guy can dream and drool! Yunior Severino Seems like a DH waiting to happen. Probably more likely to pan out than McCusker, but the clock is ticking big time. Payton Eeles Seems incredibly likely to be a AAAA player, but you never know.
  24. Rod Carews Birthday
    It's pretty hard to directly compare the two, as we don't really have solid numbers for either one and several factors. . . stadium, fan base, etc. are hard to quantify. That being said, I think it is fairly certain that the $425 million debt is a bit of a poison pill for anyone looking. I think that the billionaire or group of them that buys the team may not care about a player or two making an extra couple of million, but that's a big number even for someone rich enough to buy the team. If I read this correctly, in essence they have turned down offers of $1.5 billion + $425 million (debt) or $1.925 billion because they want $2.125 billion (with debt) or more for a franchise that CNBC values at about $1.65 billion (and they probably have pretty decent information). So, they are asking for about half a billion more than the street thinks the team is worth. Hold on tight people and bring a snack. This is going to be a long bumpy ride.
  25. Rod Carews Birthday
    If the trade can be made for a non-prospect or a barely-prospect, then I think it's a reasonable idea. Given the current lack of depth at catcher in the system, this could be a flyer worth taking. I wouldn't overpay for him, but I wouldn't mind employing him.
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