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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    One aspect of this is, what does Pinto think? I'm sure he wants to play more, but I'm sure he also appreciates the MLB salary and accommodations. Given his recent struggles, it's probably best to send him down to get his bat clicking, but I would recall him as soon as that happens, even if it's just to be a twice a week backup catcher. The best players deserve to be in MLB, and I want the best players available on this team.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    In addition to being small samples, those are still very strange and unsustainable batting lines. How many guys have a .400+ OBP with .040-.080 isolated power? And low .200s AVG? Progress will be when he starts looking like a .250+ AVG baseline hitter, or when he can sustain .120+ isolated power. Walks and OBP are nice, but he has to have SOMETHING else.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Hunter actually "got it" just before his 25th birthday in 2000 -- he dominated AAA, was recalled, and basically hit like classic Torii the last few months of the MLB season. Gomez arguably started "getting it" at age 25 too, when his power took a big jump. Hicks is still short of both of their ages -- turns 25 in October -- but he's closer than you suggest. Also, Hunter (and Gomez) never really struggled like Hicks is doing -- even before they "got it", they were .250 AVG hitters with .100+ isolated power. Hunter in particular didn't K much either. Neither one was a good MLB hitter at that point, but those are pretty standard MLB lines, either for bench/role players or developing players. Hicks' line is just weird -- consistent sub-.200 AVG, power evaporating, but walk rate rising? Enough weird stuff going on there to suggest maybe he's still a capable player just mired in a bizarre phase right now, although he could very well be an incapable player in such a phase too. He won't get tossed out yet -- hopefully he can play everyday in Rochester for awhile, maybe even well into 2015, and see what happens.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Albers was just one example. AAA league K/9 is around 8 right now, so Gibson was not displaying any standout skill. Can't always rely on those guys to translate their K ability to MLB. It's hard to get a read on Pelfrey's early career as he didn't spend much time in the minors -- he had some early small sample BB/9 spikes, but by age 24, his first full MLB season, he had pretty much settled into a 3 BB/9, 5 K/9 guy, whose effectiveness was dependent on his BABIP fluctuations.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    This sounds like Deduno?
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Is OBP the only criteria for #3 hitter, though? And at that, Mauer's OBP this year is only marginally better than that of Plouffe and Arcia (and identical to Morales' career OBP). Meanwhile, his power is dramatically less than basically everyone else in our lineup -- like, similar to 2014 Hicks power (or lack thereof). In fact, by OBP and ISO, Mauer is basically an equivalent hitter to Hicks so far this year. (B-Ref's Rbat has them about equal too.) And I think we are creeping beyond slump territory here -- we're 40% through the season, and he's shown no real signs of recovery. Even if it's not absolutely necessary yet, it would be nice to see early confirmation that we're not going to hang on with him too long at the #3 spot, and that we're not going to let him dictate where and how much he plays forever regardless of his current on-field abilities/performance.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Andrew Albers was around 8 K/9 at Rochester last year too. Rate stats don't translate to MLB the same for all players. So far, Gibson's career is looking like that of a young Mike Pelfrey a few years ago (groundballer, low K, average-ish BB rate), and his results seem similarly inconsistent.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, Dozier and Plouffe were always used as everyday players (Plouffe albeit at different positions). 500+ PA (combined majors and minors) every season. Neither was asked to learn or adjust sitting on the bench. Who was the last Twins prospect or regular who broke into MLB in an extended bench role? Cuddyer 2004 maybe, but even he totaled near 400 PA. Admittedly it's a little trickier for a catcher, they generally don't have much positional versatility (should Pinto see some reps in the corner OF? 1B?). Probably why they were so willing to trade Ramos too (I was hoping they would deploy Ramos like they did Doumit just two years later). But I generally agree with you -- I'd keep Pinto in MLB for now, even as a backup.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Since May 8 (after which Pinto's playing time dropped dramatically), Suzuki has started 21 of 30 games at catcher (113 per season pace). Only 2 DH appearances during that time. I think 70/30 is a safe estimate for the split, assuming Pinto stays up and starts leveling off offensively. I too could see it going up to 80/20 if Pinto gets worse or if Fryer/Herrmann take his place, especially if Suzuki keeps hitting and we stay in the neighborhood of contention.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed. I'd leave him at #2. I'd like to get Mauer out of the middle of the order, although I doubt that will happen. Actually, if/when Santana/Escobar come back to earth, that might be a good time to try Mauer at leadoff!
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Not to make this a Mauer thread, but yeah, I've got the concussion fear too. We're nearing statistically significant sample size and he's having easily the worst stretch of his career, in just about every category. What is it with the Twins and career-altering concussions? I can't immediately think of this happening to any other players or teams, yet it's apparently happened to the Twins twice in four years, to star-level players, no less.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Not to downplay Correia's performance, but any time a guy shuts down a tough lineup, then is followed by a succession of relievers who do the same, I do wonder if the tough lineup just had a bit of a collective off-day. It happens, and the Jays are particularly streaky. My other thought is: how much difference is there between Correia and Nolasco? Probably not 2 years, $39 million worth... looks like Correia generally performs in line with his FIP and Nolasco worse, and they're both about equal this season so far.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    It does seem like the Twins have downplayed the Pelfrey situation this year, like they want to quietly hide their mistake. Then again, the injury is actually a somewhat legit excuse for it, and as much as he was projected as a member of the rotation, he's not making that much money either (although the second year guarantee was probably a bit much).
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I say keep Pinto up. Even if he's the backup, I like the idea of having a useful backup catcher for a change. Pinto's been pretty bad the past month, but even then he's got a ~.600 OPS during that period which is probably the upside for Fryer or Herrmann. I would like to see Gardy and the team get creative with his playing time, though. (And no, that doesn't mean Pinto in CF ) Morales will need some days off in the early going, Willingham should get regular rest, and Mauer looks like he could use it as well. If Mauer was willing to pick up an outfielder's glove a few times, we could stagger their days off so Pinto could DH for virtually all of them. I'd rather see that for awhile then messing around with Parmelee, Nunez, Fuld, or Hicks in the corner OF spots, or even Parmelee at 1B. Maybe some time in the outfield would take Mauer's mind off his offensive struggles too. If that extra DH time doesn't kickstart Pinto's bat, and we're still doing okay in the standings, he could gradually recede to the traditional backup role. Of course, if Suzuki starts to slip or we're not climbing up in the standings, I would hope the 70-30 catcher playing time split would move closer to 50-50 (or better yet, 30-70 in favor of Pinto).
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Suzuki's games caught pace is actually only 115 or so, which would equal his 2012 season, and that pace has been pretty steady all year so far.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, they've kinda boxed Pinto in too. He hasn't been getting many reps at DH or C, and he is only going to get less with Morales in the fold. As I mentioned upthread, he's already been reduced to a 260 PA/season pace the last month. He's raked the last few years, but that was with 500-600 PA seasons. I imagine it's a difficult transition. I guess I'd frame it less that he's "Gardy's next target" but that Pinto is in a tough situation. (And Gardy & the Twins are in a tough situation too, if they want Pinto to succeed but still want to win this year.)
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man. It's been an encouraging staff down there for sure, but Johnson and Pino are each in their 6th season in AAA. And Achter is a reliever (Pino has been one too). Promotion should be based on not just performance, but also talent (and of course position and duration of need -- no sense activating Meyer for a single spot start). If Meyer and May are anywhere close to Johnson & Pino in performance, they should get the first nods for any long-term MLB starting pitching openings.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I am mostly in agreement with you, but your stats are a tad misleading -- Pinto's just under 70% of games PLAYED for the season, but he's under 60% for games STARTED which is probably the more appropriate measure. Your .466 OPS slump period was just the first WEEK of May, which probably isn't a fair sample to dramatically change someone's playing time. Up to and including that slump: 550 PA/season pace (and a .781 OPS, nearly identical to Suzuki's current .784) Since the slump: 257 PA/season pace (and throwing out the games in NL parks... 258 PA/season pace). With Kendrys Morales in the fold, he will soon be at a Mike Redmond, backup to Hall of Famer, playing time pace (averaged 186 PA/season as a Twin). I don't mind that as long as Suzuki is the hot hand, but at the same time, I do feel like part of Gardy's job here is to help his players succeed, and early returns suggest that a strict backup catcher role may not be the best for keeping Pinto sharp (which could hurt us later if/when Suzuki tails off or gets injured).
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps, but it would be interesting to know the Twins plan for him. If they want to avoid a shutdown if he is otherwise pitching well (starting/relief/whatever), I have no problem with continuing to limit his pitches or innings per start right now.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    If he's being outperformed, it's by a fairly subjective criteria. Meyer is dominating K/9, not just on the team but in the league (ranking first among qualified starters, a full 1 K/9 ahead of the 2nd place guy -- who by the way, has already been promoted to MLB). And his BB/9 is in the ballpark of average so he grades out very well in K:BB ratio too. May might be better so far, but only because he's been outstanding and he's 3rd in the league in qualified starter K/9 (still 1.5 behind Meyer, though). Others have been encouraging but I would not say they've performed better than Meyer overall. Darnell is averaging only 5 IP/GS even without any pitch count restrictions; Johnson and Pino have been league average or worse in K/9 as starters, and they are both in their 6th year in the league. And the 40-man should be of little concern. Barring a sudden development, Pelfrey should be 60-day DL'ed soon. And all of them have option years remaining beyond 2014, so there is no "rush" to evaluate any particular guy.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Shouldn't Kris Johnson have 2013 listed as an option year too? He was optioned by the Pirates last August (although it appears it was just for one start?).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    In a business where one of the more frugal teams is willing to pay $2 million to see if a dead cat bounces (Kubel after spring training 2014), even $12 million for a one-year commitment for a healthy quality 30 year old player is still pretty modest. Delaying the deal by two months to allow the team to assess cheaper options first, and then prorating the salary for the remaining time is an even better deal for the Twins. And cash aside, a one year (or less) contract with no players traded or draft picks surrendered is about as "modest" as MLB player acquisitions get, from a team commitment perspective. I give the Twins credit for getting it done in the face of competition, though. The real test will be if they are willing (and able) to pull the trigger again on a similar offseason move, because I don't expect they will have the luxury of a mid-season signing like this again.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Uh, if this is some kind of "young guys need pennant race experience somewhere" argument, I find that to be perhaps the least persuasive argument yet for not promoting Meyer and May. (I'll charitably assume the argument is not that the needs of the Rochester Red Wings take precedence over the needs of the Minnesota Twins in June.) And "a month or so" of MLB experience? There's over three and a half months left to the MLB season. They could spend the majority of their 2014 seasons on the MLB roster, even if Meyer was shut down Sep. 1st.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    The poster wasn't picking on Pelfrey -- they were just providing another example of how Morales' $7.5 million is indeed "modest cash" in modern MLB (even for the Twins).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    If called up right now and never demoted again, Alex Meyer would not be a free agent until age 31. I doubt the Twins are concerned about that. (To get an extra year of control, you'd have to keep him in the minors until May 2015... but then he'd be a 2015 Super-2 player, with 4 years of arbitration salaries instead of 3... unless you kept him down until July 2015... and the cycle continues ) If he was near a shutdown point in terms of innings or fatigue, I'd say wait. But he still has almost 100 IP left before the suggested 2014 limit. He could come up today and take regular turns in the MLB rotation until Sep. 1st and not exceed that limit. (And his more recent pitch count limit suggests to me they want save some of those innings for MLB, maybe even into September if he's pitching well?)
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