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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Not bad, but as you allude to, it's 62 PA of .417 BABIP with roughly the same modest ISO and BB% he's had all season. Any reports on Kepler's defense in CF this year?
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps, but the Twins didn't really have a need for "shuttle guys" in 2012-2013. They were desperately giving extended auditions to 3, 4, or even 5 starters at a time. And I think we've been carrying an extra pitcher for most of 2014 too, even with the shuttle plan (Guerrier? Deduno AND Swarzak?).
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Swarzak and Deduno have definitely felt redundant for much of the season, although I'm not sure Deduno is the one to cast off now. He makes the league minimum and at least got interesting results as a starter as recently as last year. Swarzak could make close to $2 mil this offseason, and does not appear to have the trust or ability to be anything other than a mop-up reliever. I guess they both could be offseason cut candidates, I suppose.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    The AVG looks nicer, but that's actually an even lower ISO and BB% (and slightly higher K%) than his disappointing first half of the season.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure they didn't utilize it before. Deduno and Walters were notable out of options guys, but DeVries, Diamond, Hernandez, Worley, Hendriks, Albers, Gibson, etc. all had minor league options remaining in 2012-2013 (and Hernandez, Hendriks, and Albers all had one left for 2014 too, plus Gibson of course). I think they just have better pitchers for a change.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Thielbar takes over for Duensing. Maybe Johnson is the second lefty in the pen, but it seems strange the Twins haven't bothered to use Johnson out of the pen at all this year if they really thought he was a top choice for that role. Statistically, he struggled in Pittsburgh's minor league bullpen in 2012, and only got a brief look there in 2013.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    No doubt it's been a lost season for Buxton, but there is plenty of doubt that he'd "already be ensconced in CF with the Twins" by this point. I generally don't think the Twins are slow to promote prospects, but Buxton ended last season in high-A. He would have needed an immediate continuation of his 2013 A-ball performance in AA then AAA, plus a lack of any kind of injury, even minor ones which could have delayed his promotion at all. And even then, I am guessing his AAA promotion would have been midseason, and his MLB promotion would have been Sep. 1st (or perhaps now, to get a jump on Sep. 1). Although I also tend to think the Twins are less likely to promote elite prospects at the end of a season if they aren't on the 40-man roster yet (i.e. Mauer 2003), barring immediate MLB need (i.e. Kubel 2004). Doing so needlessly risks wasting service time in case of injury, like Kubel 2005. With Sano on the shelf too, I think Buxton would have needed a historic performance in 2014 to see MLB action.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Could the effect of defensive shifts be more pronounced with 2 outs and RISP? Defenses more willing to sell out for a shift in that situation? Batters behaving more predictably? Also, how many of these 2 out, RISP situations involve relievers as compared to starters? Are starters now more likely to get pulled earlier in such situations? Or even worse relievers could be more likely to get pulled too, in favor of dominant bullpen options (and many teams seem to have multiple of these). Higher-K tendencies of batters could be more exploited in such situations too.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Albers had options remaining too, and was part of more SP-starved Twins/Rochester teams. He's a year younger than Johnson as well (so basically 2 years younger at the time he was sold). Colabello also had options remaining, but it appeared the Twins were fully willing to sell him with his permission.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    The remaining option year is nice for Johnson, but Pino has even more remaining options. So does May, Darnell (lefty!), Meyer, and Gilmartin (lefty!). Even Milone is another lefty with another option remaining, should we really need it. We probably should have been auditioning Johnson for a bullpen spot this year, because if he has any chance to stick on the 40-man this winter, I think that is it.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    If we're willing to keep him on the roster, Deduno is cheap for the foreseeable future (he won't even be arb-eligible until after NEXT season). Obviously, that alone shouldn't win him a spot over Swarzak, but if they are remotely comparable back of the bullpen / spot starter options, Deduno should probably win out. Same for Duensing vs Thielbar, really. And given that the next 7 weeks are unlikely to tell us anything about these players that the last 4-5 years haven't already, hopefully the Twins are ready and willing to make a move on them now.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, if you limit this examination of Twins decision-making to free agents available in December 2012, sure, KC was probably as good as the Twins were going to do without a huge contractual commitment. But -- it's not like the names in this particular FA market were a surprise to anyone. The rules for FA were not changed, they were all 6+ year veterans, known for a year-plus as likely FA. But the previous offseason, the Twins did even less despite having similar serious impending rotation issues. As soon as TR took over after 2011, the Twins entered slow rebuild mode, which meant roll the dice with whatever's left under contract while restocking the minor leagues, augmenting with only bargain bin FAs when absolutely necessary. That's how our 2013 rotation (and team) came to be, not through one poor FA SP class. And those critical of the KC signing generally object to the slow rebuild, or at least committing so exclusively to it.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Good move by TR! For as much as a "leader" and good example that Correia is, I wonder if his stubborn refusal to pitch out of the bullpen delayed our opportunities to trade him (assuming he is starting, at least initially, in LA). Confidence is necessary for pro athletes, but I like to see a little more flexibility from role players like KC.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I think there is a lot more of the mediocre expiring contracts / getting expensive veterans on this 25-man roster, than borderline guys getting evaluated right now. Pino, I guess, and Pressly, although both could easily be optioned and recalled after Sep. 1 when Meyer will presumably be shut down. Colabello? He's a virtual lock to be removed from the 40-man after the season. Schafer is too, although I understand they just picked him up and want a look at him -- arb-eligible guys with a "shot at being the 4th OF heading into next season" are DFA'd after the season all the time, if only to re-sign on a cheaper, more flexible minor league deal (see Sam Fuld last winter). Otherwise, Vargas is sticking on the 40-man regardless -- he certainly doesn't need to be on the 25-man for urgent evaluation purposes. EDIT TO ADD: Also, when a lot of these evaluations (Pino, Johnson, Darnell... Swarzak with a start too?) have been rotating through 2 open rotation spots the last month and a half, 40-man roster spots are a big criteria. They could add Meyer to the roster for Saturday's start, send him back down to AAA Tuesday, and recall him Sep. 1 (if only on paper, assuming he is shut down) and not even burn an option year on him.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    In an election year? No way. Congress isn't in session now anyway, and won't be until September 8th. I suppose if we could get a congressional committee to announce an investigation into the alarming lack of pitcher strikeouts in Minnesota, and TR was called to testify, that might put some heat on him.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Kris Johnson would also be a possibility for Saturday's start. Whoever does it, it could easily be a one-off start: they presumably want a permanent spot for Milone now (Pino's spot, beginning Monday/Tuesday, as Seth guessed), there is another off day Thursday Aug. 14, and Nolasco could return to take the open spot as early as next Friday August 15. Basically, this Saturday's starter may not be wanted/needed again until the doubleheader August 23. They obviously went with starters other than May for one-off (or two-off) opportunities earlier in the year, I wonder if that holds true in August.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    He played Sunday, but not Monday (with an off day yesterday).
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Releasing him would clearly eliminate salary as a concern for an acquiring team. While I don't think anybody wants to add him to their roster at this point, if they knew the Twins would be picking up the tab, perhaps they'd give him a look, if only to release him themselves later. I would guess the assumption in making trade proposals with the Twins is that the Twins will not eat any salary. The downside is, if he sits inactive for a couple weeks, he may be even less desirable (if that's possible) to a team for September. Still better than releasing him August 31st / September 1st. Theoretically, that leaves virtually zero time for him to latch on with another team in advance of the playoff roster deadline (again, not that anyone particularly wants him on their playoff roster).
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    The whole point of promoting Meyer to MLB is so we don't have to go to Indianapolis to see him pitch. Unless you're suggesting we go to Indianapolis and bring him back with us. Meyer might even be a willing abductee. Although the proper National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation form would be to kidnap TR and bring him to Indianapolis so he can realize how poorly he has treated Meyer.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    For the record, I don't endorse the Randy Johnson example either. Meyer's case for promotion is made quite easily without it.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I take this as an endorsement of gracefully parting ways with Correia after the season, rather than releasing or demoting him to the pen earlier? Earlier you suggested releasing him August 31st... not sure I understand. If you're willing to do that, you should be willing to release him now.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    The innings limit is in regards to his season innings total. Rob Antony was quoted this spring as targeting a "standard" 30% increase, which would put Meyer in the 135-155 IP range for 2014 (depending on whether you count fall 2013 instructional league innings). And I have no problem with that. 2012 was a full healthy season for Meyer, 25 starts in ~130 game season. His 2 month absence in June and July of 2013 are the only starts he has missed in his nearly 3 year pro career thus far.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Just to be clear: I don't advocate Meyer in the bullpen. I was responding to a poster who advocated pitching him out the bullpen in September. I was merely asking, if September, why not now?
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    First of all, almost everyone advocating for him to be promoted now is not suggesting a bullpen role. That's the compromise position with those who are resisting him starting in MLB right now. Secondly, if the primary criteria is finding 2015 Twins, there is no shortage of available 40-man roster spots right now. Florimon and Schafer are both out of options next spring, and project as very long shots to make the 25-man roster. Fryer is also out of options, and is almost certainly replaceable in the offseason. Correia and Willingham will be off the 40-man roster anyway by late October if they don't sign extensions (unlikely). Burton has an option which could easily be declined. Duensing and Swarzak are getting expensive and their roles are largely redundant with the cheaper Thielbar and Deduno, respectively. Edgar Ibarra was just sent down to AA, suggesting he's not a strong candidate for 40-man retention.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Why couldn't he pitch out of the pen now, when he isn't up against any innings limit and his arm is presumably fresher? I just don't get why he needs another 30 IP in AAA right now, on top of the 112 IP he's already logged at that level this year, as opposed to some similar number in MLB, in advance of the 2015 season where he can hopefully contribute from day 1. Somehow, the reasoning always comes back to: - he's not a fully finished product (rookies never are) - he might struggle in his first taste of MLB (duh) - we should wait until September (why?) - it might tax the bullpen (we have tons of bullpen options) - Correia's still on the roster (who cares?) - it would use an option year (factually incorrect) - we can control him until age 32 if we keep him down until May 2015 (depressing) None of which is particularly compelling to me.
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