Jump to content
Our top free agent ranking is up to 75 names; click here to check it out! ×
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,669

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    74

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I will say this: a Buehrle acquisition probably would not assuage those posters with the pet peeve about incorrect name spelling.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    If Buehrle is available for anything close to a salary dump, and you can't snag a better pitcher in FA (and/or you don't like the Masterson/Morrow/etc. rebound candidates), I would welcome Buehrle in a heartbeat. For all the talk about blocking someone, remember Twins starters had the worst ERA and lowest IP in the league in 2014 -- there is virtually no way such a staff can't add another quality starter from outside the organization. Not only would Buehrle almost certainly make us better in 2015, but we could very easily have the inside track to retain him on reasonable, low-risk, short-term deals into his later career too (think recent Andy Pettitte with the Yankees, or even Carl Pavano for the Twins 2010-2011 sans injury curse).
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Not by ERA, RA9 (includes unearned runs), or ERA+. Buehrle topped Hughes in every measure of actual run prevention in 2014, all while simply matching his 15 year (!) career averages in run prevention, peripherals, and durability. As compared to Hughes whose BB/9 rate was one-fourth of his previous career rate (and who also set by far a career high in IP). Not to knock Hughes, but Buehrle was pretty good in 2014, and it wasn't a fluke -- he's been doing duplicating almost the same exact performance every year for 15 years now.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting post, thanks. What about playoffs? I don't mean to rehash bad memories for Twins fans, but Maddon equaled Gardy's career playoff victory total by his 8th career playoff game. 13-17 overall isn't great, but it's way better than 6-21. Obviously we aren't terribly close to returning to the playoffs, but it might be nice to know our manager isn't just a good "long haul" manager but can also hang in the October elimination tournaments, should the opportunity (hopefully) arise. Here is another way to compare them: if my math is right, Gardy's teams are 25-38 against Maddon's head-to-head. Obviously the last 4 years have been terrible for the Twins, so that skews things toward the Rays (who only had 2 similarly bad years under Maddon), but even in 2006-2010 the Twins barely edged the Rays 18-16, despite the Rays having two 96+ loss seasons in that time. Gardy's success against Maddon is almost entirely based on Maddon's first year in Tampa (2006, when the Twins won the series 6-1) -- the Twins never won a season series with the Rays after that.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I've posted this elsewhere, but it's not so much spending. TR and the Twins have consistently demonstrated a real aversion to competitive bidding situations, regardless of cost. At the time TR stepped down after the 2007 season, the record bonus for a non-Cuban Latin American player was still under $2.5 million, or less than what TR guaranteed Ramon Ortiz or Rondell White for their services in 2007. The Twins just had zero activity in that market (or in Cuba or Asia). Just going off memory, I don't think the Twins ever went above "slot" for any draft picks prior to the cap system in 2012 (maybe Mauer in 2001?). Bill Smith got Miguel Sano in 2009 and tried posting on a few Japanese players (regrettably getting Nishioka), but obviously stayed fairly modest in the draft and domestic free agency. And even since his return, all of TR's domestic FA signings have been for fairly modest amounts and/or early in the offseason, suggesting only modest bidding markets for them. To his credit, there were finally reports of late activity last offseason for the Twins, in offers to Garza and Ervin Santana. Both involved special circumstances (historically bad starting staff, Garza as a former Twin, and Santana unsigned well into March) so I am still not sure if they represent a trend or mirage. We should see some similar activity (and hopefully an actual signing) this offseason if TR and the Twins have indeed turned a new leaf in this regard.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Oh yeah -- don't know if this has been mentioned or not, but apparently Maddon speaks Spanish fluently.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Do we really want to be locked in with an expensive guy on the wrong side of 60, just a year or two before our own younger, cheaper manager prospect is ready?
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Even if it is a long shot and Maddon isn't particularly interested in the job, I think pursuing him a bit communicates something good to the other candidates about the kind of manager/personality/culture the Twins want. (And communicates the same to the fans.) Kinda the same with big-ticket free agents -- I don't expect the Twins to sign many or any of them, but just knowing they are interested in the best talent sends a good message.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    He is definitely a personality, and in a good way. "Why Joe Madden is the craziest person in baseball" http://www.businessinsider.com/why-joe-maddon-is-the-craziest-person-in-baseball-2013-5?op=1
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Here's a couple examples I ran across of Maddon's in-game strategy: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/newsstand/discussion/buster_olney_on_twitter_sources_manager_joe_maddon_has_exercised_an_opt_out
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Has no one brought this example up in our managerial search yet? "Billy" Pohlad could be the next Billy Heywood!
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    "Never been swept in the playoffs" looks good to this Twins fan. Although a closer examination does show a Gardy-like "win 1, lose the next 3" routine in the 2011 ALDS, he also has a full 5-game ALDS loss in 2010, and in the 2012 ALDS, they actually won a game when down 2-0 in the series (in addition to the 2008 WS appearance, of course). He's also won more games over the last 7 seasons than Gardy did in his first 7, with a greater per-season win average than Gardy in our glorious "6 division titles in 9 years" run too, despite playing in a much tougher division. From 2008-2014, 3 WS participants (and 2 winners) have been from the AL East, and 7 ALCS participants. From 2002-2010, only 2 AL Central teams made the series (1 winner), and only 4 even made the ALCS (all 4 franchises except KC). So to answer your questions, I don't know.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Is MLB pissed off that this news broke during the World Series?
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Based on his response from the 2014 offseason handbook, I wonder if anyone dared ask him that again this year?
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins did almost double their SB in 2014 (to above league average) over 2013, at a much better success rate. According to B-Ref, the Twins also went from -8.2 baserunning runs (last in MLB) to +3.5 in 2014 (that would include taking the extra base, etc.). Someone posted the data that the Twins shifted a lot more in 2014, and with decent success compared to the league. The Twins infield defense was pretty well regarded in 2014 too, although by the B-Ref numbers it was pretty good outside of Plouffe in 2013 too. (I know Plouffe's general praise of Molitor -- has Molitor been any kind of fielding mentor for Plouffe?) Could be right place, right time -- as mentioned, the Twins were one the worst in the league at baserunning and shifts in 2013, so they probably had nowhere to go but up, especially with new some faces on the field -- but at least it's something.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Outside of that one disastrous 2004 season with Seattle (a year which presaged a decade-long absence from the dugout), Molitor is farther removed from working in another organization than Gardenhire was when he became Twins manager. I don't think of him as too much of an insider, though. Actually, at this point, I worry less that the Twins might seek the comfort of the familiar Molitor, and more that Molitor only seems to seek the comfort of the familiar Twins. (Also, can Molitor be fun and interesting? Genuinely curious. I think the entertainment factor of managers is being way under-rated around here. )
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Hughes' track record prior to 2014 doesn't even suggest #2-#3. He was a career ~91 ERA+ starter who didn't appear particularly durable. That track record PLUS fully considering his 2014 pegs him as a #2-#3 starter in my book for now. Not sure how we got on this tangent, frankly. I love what Hughes has done, but I guess I think there is still "room" at the top of the Twins rotation even with Hughes. And I agree that it's too early to give up on Nolasco.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I understand. I guess I would take any Twins comments about Molitor with a big grain of salt -- they are his current (and one of his only post-playing) employer, and currently interviewing him for a promotion. You're right, "brilliant baseball mind" is certainly not a requirement for the job, but I would hesitate to throw that around for anybody who is fairly novice in the coaching/management ranks.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    He was probably a smart player too, but it's not liked he was Jamey Carroll or Nick Punto and simply willed himself to be better. He was considered one of the top amateur players in the country by age 20. I liked his game, I will say that much. Good SB% and SO/BB rates. But I liked George Brett's game too (more career BB than SO!), and Ryne Sandberg (unheralded 20th round pick, with power, speed, and defense), and they don't look as smart now as when they were players.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Molitor was the 3rd overall draft pick in 1977. He may not have been Rickey Henderson in terms of physical gifts, but who is? He was plenty gifted.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Haren was not contingent on improving health, at least not by any commonly accepted definition of the term. Dude's started 30+ MLB games each of the last 10 years. He falls into your "statistical regression" bucket, he's just been thoroughly mediocre the last 3 years. But even for the injury guys, the roster spot isn't guaranteed, only the money. And while Santana and Johnson didn't work out and I won't blame the Twins for passing on them, these deals can provide benefit and I hope the Twins aren't passing on them on principle. They should do their due diligence on Masterson and Morrow just like anybody else.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Not free agency, but waivers. Like when the Twins wanted to remove Liam Hendriks from the 40-man last winter, they had to waive him, even though he had a minor league option remaining. The claiming team was able to then option him to AAA. Had he not been added to the 40-man, Kepler would not have been eligible for minor league free agency until after 2016, I think. Correct. So a team could very easily claim Kepler on waivers and stash him in the minors until opening day 2018, for only the cost of the 40-man roster spot. The decision point was last offseason -- the Twins could in theory have waited until as late as after the 2016 season to add him to the 40-man, assuming nobody claimed him in the intervening Rule 5 drafts. But all that would have gained them would be option years in 2018+, at ages 25+. If he's not a clear MLBer by that point, option years don't really matter (see Parmelee, Chris, spring 2014).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Hey, if only the Twins had been so lucky with Nolasco! I kid, I kid. Although the Johnson deal did have an interesting provision for a 2015 club option at $4 mil if Johnson started fewer than 7 games in 2014. Not quite as sweet as the recent Lackey and Garza club option provisions, but interesting nonetheless.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Santana (Johan) and Johnson (Josh) didn't pitch in MLB in 2014. I think you're counting Johnson's 2013 stats. Haren was no great shakes, but he wasn't really disastrous either (think recent vintage Correia).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Hold up -- I think the Kepler discussion started with the suggestion that he could be in the mix for our 2015 outfield (which is pretty crazy, IMHO -- would love him to take steps forward, but Kepler really shouldn't enter into our offseason planning at the MLB level). I don't think there is any pressing need to remove him from the 40-man at this point, is there?
×
×
  • Create New...