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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. That's assuming Buxton, Escobar, Polanco, etc. all fail, which would indeed be a setback for the team but really has very little to do with Santana's present position.
  2. I sorta understand getting a look at Santana at SS, but for a team that has been so thoroughly mediocre up and down the roster for 4 years, it seems a little too cute to mess with two of their 2014 bright spots in this way. I also think Molitor and perhaps Gardy before him has become a little too enamored of fellow infielders at the expense of outfielders. Giving outsize importance to the primary utility man role, factoring infielders as backup outfielders, etc.
  3. Outfielders 2004-2006: Span 2007: Pridie 2008-2012: Hicks 2013: Buxton
  4. Baseball America's best defensive infielder after each season: 2004: Plouffe 2005: Plouffe 2006: Casilla 2007: Romero 2008: Tolbert 2009: Polanco 2010: Polanco 2011: Dozier 2012: Michael 2013: Santana They seem to have quit such rankings at that point, or maybe they are behind a paywall (although they still do best in league stuff?).
  5. Probably true, which is why Plouffe got the distinction the year he was drafted and his second year. But I think it is notable that he received no such distinctions from BA after that. I don't think the distinctions for Hicks are purely on his prospect status or reputation, though.
  6. In some ways, those data points suggest we should have given him a longer leash in the OF. It's not perfectly analogous, but in 2012 Plouffe had a breakout season playing 3B, a position he had never before played in MLB and only barely played in the minors (76 games total, and only 8 games over the preceding 3 seasons). We didn't send Plouffe back to SS for 2013, even though Florimon was likely a worse option at the position than Escobar now. In 2013, Dozier had a breakout season playing 2B, a position he had never played in MLB and only played 47 times in the minors. We didn't send Dozier back to SS for 2014, even though again Florimon was the top option at the spot. Not sure why it was out of the question to let Santana continue to play the OF to begin 2015, with Escobar at SS (and only one utility infielder on the bench). Actually, to complete the Dozier/Plouffe analogy, we could have shifted Santana to LF and acquired a CF version of Florimon (ace glove, no bat) to support him (and Arcia, and the pitching staff) defensively.
  7. You could have had him back this spring. Cleared waivers for the Astros, was sent to AAA. The problem wasn't losing Presley -- the problem was never finding/targeting players notably better than Presley (and some notably worse).
  8. Baseball America has some interesting historical ratings. Trevor Plouffe: ORGANIZATION BEST TOOLS Rated Best Defensive Infielder in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2004 season Rated Best Defensive Infielder in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2005 season Aaron Hicks: ORGANIZATION BEST TOOLS Rated Best Athlete in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2008 season Rated Best Defensive OF in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2008 season Rated Best Outfield Arm in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2008 season Rated Best Strike Zone Discipline in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2008 season Rated Best Athlete in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2009 season Rated Best Defensive OF in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2009 season Rated Best Outfield Arm in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2009 season Rated Best Strike Zone Discipline in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2009 season Rated Best Strike Zone Discipline in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2010 season Rated Best Defensive OF in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2010 season Rated Best Outfield Arm in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2010 season Rated Best Defensive OF in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2011 season Rated Best Outfield Arm in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2011 season Rated Best Defensive OF in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2012 season Rated Best Outfield Arm in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2012 season Rated Best Strike Zone Discipline in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2012 season LEAGUE BEST TOOLS Rated Best Outfield Arm in the Midwest League in 2010 Rated Best Outfield Arm in the Florida State League in 2011 Plouffe's defensive rep was probably never very strong (best of a weak group?) and evaporated fairly quickly (he was spending time off of SS as early as 2006, in high-A ball, only his second full season as a pro). Hicks could still be a special case, for both defensive and offensive evaluation (not to mention transition/adjustment to MLB).
  9. I addressed that in my last paragraph. I don't think so. I think you could say "They WILL bat around" in anticipation of the completion of the 9th PA. But I don't think most observers would bother, since the more notable event of the 10th PA is still a possibility (if not also guaranteed, depending on the runners/outs). If you say "batted around" when the 9th guy steps to the plate, what do you say if/when the the 10th guys steps up for his second PA of the inning? The latter is certainly a more interesting event, to me, anyway, and is more deserving of a well-known special term.
  10. More data points suggesting a deference to veteran's (and anointed starter's) preference taking priority over optimal asset deployment. See also: Pinto in AAA (deferring both to pitcher preferences and to Suzuki), the opening day bullpen, veterans on minor league deals with opt-outs, Correia starting into August last year, etc.
  11. I think there are two contexts, validating both 9 and 10. While the inning is in progress, the notable event is the leadoff guy coming up to bat a second time (10th PA) -- that's when you would note that they've batted around. In the context of reviewing a just-completed inning, the notable event is that everybody batted at least once (9th PA finished), so you could also note it then. I don't think you could say it when the 9th guy comes to plate if there is any chance the final out could be made on the bases and the 9th plate appearance would not be completed. You can't retroactively remove "batted around" status. (If completion of the 9th PA is guaranteed due to the number of outs/runners, perhaps you could say "They WILL bat around this inning" but I'd probably withhold the comment until the 9th plate appearance concludes. At that moment, the possibility of the leadoff hitter coming to bat again is by far the more notable event.)
  12. On the flyball, could the run saved be credited to the defense rather than Mauer? Perhaps another difference that good OF defense can make, forcing the other team into more conservative baserunning? Not that Mauer is without fault, but it is interesting to consider the defensive angle. Cain is pretty darn good out there.
  13. I find it works better if I drink BEFORE Gladden speaks.
  14. This is all I've read: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/21/bbo-twins-royals-writethru-idUSMTZEB4L4ZIHTB20150421
  15. I don't think anyone wants to play (or see) 18 consecutive innings of minor league baseball. These guys already ride buses and play for peanuts, give them a break.
  16. Generally agreed, and Gibson's first start this year looks like it could be a bit of an outlier in terms of GB/FB rate. I wouldn't even be thinking about bouncing him from the rotation in the near future, although his prospects for a 2015 breakout have diminished somewhat.
  17. Back to Arcia, here is a direct link to the video: http://m.mlb.com/video/v81918783 It doesn't look good, that's for sure. I might bench the Royals announcers for repeatedly mis-pronouncing Arcia's name too: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGXQIy-FUow
  18. Interesting. I would say 10 too, but after reading the article, I can see a case for 9. Either way, you don't want to be on the pitching/defensive side of the inning! I suppose if the final out is made on the bases, you could get both -- the 10th man came to the plate but didn't record a plate appearance.
  19. You did see my post, right? Obviously I wouldn't rely on this sample yet (and indeed I didn't quote any stats myself), but your refutation of the stats with "these stats say differently" was not true in the least. The stats you quoted didn't say anything except how many innings each qualified player had logged, ranked from least to most. Notice how the UZR columns are blank for 2015 at Fangraphs? That's the actual skill estimate part of dWAR. Those are probably the columns you should look at (UZR or UZR/150, or DRS, or TZ) if you are comparing players at the same position anyway, rather than dWAR.
  20. It's not true. The poster was quoting Fangraphs dWAR, which at this point in the season is simply the generic positional adjustment. The player's actual defensive performance as estimated by UZR is not yet included. So you can put away the pitchforks.
  21. If you are looking at Fangraphs dWAR, there is no published UZR data for it yet. Arcia's 2015 dWAR is simply the generic positional adjustment, and he happens to have the 2nd fewest innings among qualified LF. Likewise Hunter has the 10th fewest innings among qualified RF.
  22. It's a vesting option, not a player option. (Vests with 485 PA in 2016.) Grantland had me worried there for a second!
  23. This is the more interesting Twins style trend of 2015, I think: http://www.si.com/extra-mustard/2015/04/16/twins-business-casual-player-photos
  24. This isn't Mauer's first flirtation with a beard. Spring training 2010 and I believe also 2007 too. It's perhaps his first extended regular season beard action, though. How about going back to this look? http://mlb.mlb.com/assets/images/3/1/8/108549318/mauerHS_5gb1y34w.jpg I'd also endorse this Photoshop rendered look: http://cdn.na16.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/joe-mauer1.jpg
  25. This is why I suspect Pinto staying in AAA isn't necessarily a direct product of an evaluation of his abilities. I think it's largely a deference to a veteran that they like to determine his own playing time.
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