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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    The positive results of that appearance are about as meaningful as the negative results of the next one. You've got to look at the process to really tell if he is "fine", and from my vantage point he still looks quite a bit less than 100%. Could/should still be a key reliever for us down the stretch, but we're going to have to watch him carefully.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Dominant? The first batter Kipnis sac bunted on the first pitch, the next batter Lindor hit a fly ball to right that should have scored a run but they held the runner at third. The final batter (Michael Martinez, a 33 year old career .186 AVG utility guy who replaced an injured Brantley) hit a grounder up the middle that Dozier made a nice backhand play on. Perkins didn't throw a pitch for a ball all inning, but in total he threw 6 pitches and didn't miss a bat once (5 swings for contact and one called strike). It was an effective appearance in terms of results, obviously, but it hardly seemed dominant.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    For reference, I looked up Bob Allison's 1961 streak (July 16 - August 29). .281/.411/.555, .966 OPS, better than any of Allison's full season OPS figures, roughly translating to a 150 OPS+ with the Met Stadium park factors that year. Mauer's .771 OPS is his current streak would be about a 106 OPS+. I don't have a B-Ref play index subscription, but it would be interesting to compare Mauer's streak performance to others.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes. Actually, it doesn't really have to do with Santana -- the new rule is your 25-man playoff roster isn't submitted until just before each playoff round begins, and it can be comprised of anyone on your 40-man roster as of midnight August 31. (The 25-man roster on August 31 is irrelevant.) You can also petition to replace injured and perhaps suspended players with non-40-man guys from your organization as of midnight August 31, but seeing how Aaron Thompson is still on the 40-man and sitting at home, we don't seem to using the spots we already have, so I doubt it will make much difference.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, and more accurately, the roster can be changed between each round of the playoffs (and the wild card game counts as its own round). Not that we'd probably make many changes without injury (and injuries allow mid-series roster changes), but we could change its composition a bit between rounds if so desired.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Yep, teams pretty much do this (well, they usually keep one other rested starter in case of emergency or extra innings).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree that we would have to load up on bullpen arms, but I don't think O'Rourke or Graham are very exciting, especially given their usage so far in the regular season. Milone or Nolasco seem to be the best bullpen wild cards.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Milone is a lock? I thought he was injured and out of the rotation right now? Wouldn't Pelf be that 4th starter?
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the link! Based on his AA stats and age, this is what they found as comparables: Will be fun to watch next year!
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, remember that is using Fangraphs' stat projections, which still project the Twins as the worst team in the league over the rest of the season, basically unchanged from their preseason projection (72-74 win pace over a full season). I much prefer their "season to date stats mode" which gives the Twins a 22% chance, or their "coin flip mode" which gets us up to 28%.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not just you, I've noticed that too. I'd rather they showed their competitive fire in a way that wasn't so annoying, but I guess it's good to know they care.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Definitely, and that is a consideration for the current Twins. Although the premise here is that Ervin is a lot closer to an ace at the present moment than a few other members of our rotation (notably Hughes, who is scheduled to face Kluber twice, and Pelfrey, who is in line to start a potential game 163).
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    A short rest start Oct. 1 would make Santana available for a possible game 163, again on short rest, on Oct. 5. Although even on the normal schedule, Santana would presumably be available in relief (2 days rest). As it stands, Pelfrey would be in line to start a possible game 163 on normal rest, or Duffey on short rest (and Duffey on normal rest for a wild card game).
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Darnell been sick, he hasn't pitched in 3 weeks. Also, a spot start means someone else loses a start, rather than the Santana suggestion of re-arranging for match ups or Game 162/163/WC availability. Pelfrey already lost a start to Hughes... given how long it took for Darnell to see Minnesota this year, I am not sure he'd be a better bet than either of those guys, even if he was healthy.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I think this is somewhat overstating things. There were rumors that Nolasco was discussed, not that anything was close. (It's not at all clear what was going on with the Padres at the deadline -- I am sure a lot of guys were discussed with them who will never be moved.)
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    If there is a chance of us developing a starter that would fit in Nick's list above, I think we have to try it. We're not adding such a starter by trade or FA at this point, and the veterans Hughes, Santana, and Nolasco have had difficulty reaching that standard even in their primes. I would be surprised if none of May, Duffey, or Berrios was in the MLB rotation at the start of next season.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I get the impression that this a temporary thing due to Perkins' health. Late in the season enough that "temporary" probably means rest of the season, though (and hopefully postseason!). If it was April through July, I expect we'd see Perkins back in the closer role already, as we probably will in April 2016.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, no other starter would "lose" any regular season starts, unless Santana started Game 162 on short rest over Gibson on full rest. Until that point, it's just re-arranging them so Santana might be available to start game 162 or a potential tiebreak game 163. And that arrangement might be a benefit -- if game 162 is meaningful for us, and a wild card game appearance is likely, having Santana available to start (or at least pitch a lot of relieve in) game 162 and saving Gibson for the wild card game when Santana wouldn't be eligible might be a nice option. Or using Gibson for 162 and having Santana on full rest available for a tiebreaker game 163.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    There's two theories on the Kluber game. One approach is trying to match ace vs. ace, the other is letting a scrub start it as even your ace might be likely to lose against their ace.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Interestingly, Trevor May also met that criteria when he was sent to the bullpen earlier this season (if you round up his 7.95 K/9 at the time). Hope we don't see either him or Duffey in next year's pen!
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    From my link above, Santana on short rest would face Simon in Detroit, Carrasco in Cleveland, then whatever KC throws out in Game 162 (or normal rest for a potential tiebreaker game 163). That could be better than letting Santana face Wolf in Detroit and Guthrie vs. KC on normal rest. Although I am not sure there is enough separation in skill among the Twins starters to really make this worthwhile.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Unfortunately, Santana's turn has landed on our last two off days, which reduced the chances to skip other starters to get Santana more turns on normal rest. Depending on how tonight goes, I think you could make a case for Santana's next start getting pushed back a day -- ESPN's probables currently has him set to face Randy Wolf in Detroit on Sunday, when he could be more useful facing Kluber again in Cleveland on Monday. http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/schedule/_/name/min/minnesota-twins Although with the current rotation plan, Santana would have two days off before a potential game 163 tiebreaker, meaning he could easily be available out of the pen for it.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually Sano wasn't called up until 3 weeks after the Super 2 threshold. Might have cost us a win or two during a rough month of June.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Hunter is much better and more important to Twins history than Bartlett, Kubel, and Guerrier. He also wasn't at the stage of his career yet where he had to accept a minor league invite to spring training. Still doesn't make him a Twins legend.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I should have quoted it, but the post I was reacting to was immediately above mine and called Hunter a "Twins legend." I have seen John offer similar statements. I don't particularly care how much you want to credit Torii's leadership for wins and losses in 2015, but I don't think his sole leadership was cited much as an important factor from 2001-2007 (or from 2008-2010 after he originally left), so I think history will ultimately judge him more on his statistical record. I think he was better and/or slightly longer tenured than some of the other notable pieces on those early clubs (Jones, Guzman, Cuddyer, etc.), but I really don't think his pre-2015 Twins contributions rise that far above "good, fun player on a few good, fun (if not particularly playoff successful) teams". By 2015, Torii's complete MLB record was starting to look impressive simply for his solid longevity, which colored his return to Minnesota, but half of his relevant seasons had been accumulated elsewhere.
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