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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fine, but I'd save it for responses to the posts and posters that actually trash Ryan. This thread was offering tons of reasoned and nuanced opinions on the Nolasco signing, and it just feels like dragging it down to start bashing unnamed TR haters...
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting. It should be noted that Shields has been much better lately. Actually, folks have been citing the roll that Santana has been on -- 2.02 ERA his last 7 starts. Well, Shields has a 2.11 ERA his last 7 starts. (Santana has the edge on peripherals, but they've both been benefitting from a low BABIP.) Shields is up to an 86 ERA+ on the season, which is pretty incredible compared to where it was a month ago. Also, with the money the Padres are picking up for Shields, the White Sox can shop him now with only $24 mil guaranteed left on his deal, as compared to Ervin's remaining $33 mil.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    It's a little early to say that. Slama rose through the system at a acceptable rate, reaching AAA during his second full pro season and MLB during his third (he was drafted in 2006, but didn't sign until just before the 2007 draft). It's just that he was mostly buried at AAA for the next 3+ years. Hildenberger is on track to reach AAA in this, his second full pro season, and should hit MLB next year. (No evidence yet of him getting mostly buried at AAA for 3+ years, fortunately!)
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    It's also true. I liked Charlie Brown too, but I never wanted him to kick that football...
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I am rooting against the Cubs, because I like them as lovable losers.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Outside the most extreme internet commenters, I don't think this is an accurate description of opinions around here. TR isn't getting savaged just for the Nolasco decision alone -- TR generally gets savaged for the totality of a bunch of decisions, including Nolasco, the Hughes extension, the handling of Trevor May, etc. Decisions that have left us with many losing seasons, including a particularly bad 2016, with few decent assets to trade either. The other trap that we can fall into is, of course all of TR's decisions have some justification, even Nolasco. That doesn't absolve TR of responsibility. If the standard for judging a GM's moves was only "does the move have justification", almost anyone could be a GM. I hope we are holding MLB GM's to a higher standard.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Hildenberger doesn't need to be added to the 40-man for Rule 5 protection until after the 2017 season. So I wouldn't bother promoting him to MLB this year -- use that opportunity for Chargois, Melotakis, and Zack Jones instead. Even Wimmers or Baxendale, I suppose.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed. Jones is looking like an easy 40-man add this winter, or obvious Rule 5 pick if left unprotected again. If we have any concern about him that we want to address before that decision, we should probably challenge him with a AAA and/or MLB promotion soon.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Ah, good catch. I was a stickler about the buyout before, but I've just read $27 mil so many times now, I thought it included the buyout. So yeah, we're at $33 mil remaining guaranteed on Santana, $5 mil this year and $28 mil after. That said, I think a decent offer for Santana is almost as unlikely as any offer for Nolasco. Even if Santana is a decent pitcher on a decent contract, there just isn't a history of that level of pitcher, at that age and with that kind of contract, getting traded at the deadline for a solid return. I think the deadline is a time when teams want to add premium talent (i.e. Chapman), or they want to get a good deal on someone's surplus asset (i.e. Melvin Upton to the Jays). Santana will fall in the latter group.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed. And part of that is taking advantage when good value comes to you, like the original Hughes deal. I'm guessing that offseason, and TR's performance overall, would be viewed very differently if we hadn't blown up the original Hughes contract the following winter. We basically squandered the positive counterpoint to Nolasco's struggles, and Santana's suspension.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Was TR under contract for 2017 too? Gardy was definitely under contract after 2014. I don't really see how Antony being under contract for 2017 is meaningful, assuming that Antony would be owed a far smaller "severance package" than either of those guys.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    There is some truth to this. While we all focus on Santana's remaining 2/27 after this season, Ervin is still owed about $5 mil for 2016 too, and given our position, that is just money down the drain. There could be a right mix of prospects and money that makes this interesting, even if it's short of overwhelming.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    They'd have to absorb virtually all of the money, I think. See the Melvin (BJ) Upton deal to Toronto -- San Diego paid $17 of his remaining $22 mil, and Upton has been an above-average hitter and defender this year and last. Baltimore was actually interested in swapping Jimenez for Upton, but apparently they didn't like the financials (Upton is owed about $4 mil more)? Chris Davis mega-deal aside, they are relatively frugal. I doubt they would have the stomach to pick up much of Nolasco's deal. Vance Worley seems about as good a bet as Nolasco to hold down the fort at the back of the rotation. Milone is a different matter -- he's pretty affordable.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    With enough makeup, we could make Lohse look a few years younger too!
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Last I saw was that he started playing catch on July 7: http://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/twins-alex-meyer-starts-playing-catch/ No word yet on whether he has completed that game of catch. Maybe he is going for some kind of record?
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Possibly. But at what cost? I have no doubt that multiple teams would be interested in Milone and Nolasco at minimum salary, but at that point it doesn't make much sense for the Twins to dump them (particularly if they have a spot in the pen to stash them).
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, some of us also don't feel compelled to fully trust this team on the nuances of player development, given the last 5 years.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    It's a good haul, no doubt. But those limited regular season innings will help as the Cubs try to secure home field advantage in the postseason. And of course, the Cubs hope they are followed by some much higher-leverage innings in the postseason. The other thing about Torres is, he's a good prospect, but he's quite a long ways from the majors, and his future value is mostly being determined by his tools at this point (he's had a solid year at a young age at high-A but no standout skills have been demonstrated quite yet). Lest we forget, Deolis Guerra was BA's #35 prospect in MLB when we got him in the Santana trade too, actually higher than Gomez (#52). And the other players are worth very, very little. Warren has been bad this year, requires a 40-man spot, and is in the middle of his arb years so he's no longer super-cheap. Probably a nontender candidate this winter. McKinney will require a 40-man spot this winter if they want to protect him in Rule 5, which they might not -- he looks like Ben Revere without the steals, average, low K rate, CF defense, etc. Crawford would require a 40-man spot too, if he was actually worth protecting (I don't think he is). So, in addition to Torres, they got a nontender guy a little early, and a couple fringe Rule 5 eligibles.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure that is true. I think the waivers remain in effect through August 31st only if the player hasn't been outrighted yet. Meaning we could have waived Milone in May, but elected not to outright him until a later date. Once he was outrighted and later added back, I think the process restarts. If what you are saying was true, then we'd see a lot more guys getting added and dropped "freely" from the 40-man roster May through August, after only clearing outright assignment waivers once. And I don't think I've ever seen such a thing. I can't find any clear confirmation of this, but I did find an example of Bill Hall, who in May 2012 cleared waivers and was outrighted to AAA, then was added back shortly thereafter, only to have to clear waivers again to be outrighted in June. That sequence of events seems to support my interpretation of the rule -- Baltimore would not have had to expose Hall to waivers the second time if the original waivers were still in effect. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/05/outrighted-to-triple-a-bill-hall-2.html http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/06/outrighted-to-triple-a-bill-hall.html
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Not only are these suspect stats, but some of this seems factually incorrect too. 2016 stats Chapman 2.22 WPA, 17:3 SD/MD (85%) Jansen 1.06 WPA, 23:5 SD/MD (82%) 2015-2016 stats Chapman 4.85 WPA, 48:10 SD/MD (82.8%) Allen 3.14 WPA, 50:11 SD/MD (82.0%) Kimbrel 3.05 WPA, 57:13 SD/MD (81.4%) Yup, Chapman is clearly at the end of this list... Add to the fact that the Cubs already had a closer, and there were other closers being offered in trade, and none of these other "dominant" guys are pending FA being offered in trade (with the exception of the already traded and questionable record of Ziegler), I am pretty sure it was Chapman's dominance that made him an acquisition target, more than his closing mojo.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    SD/MD? And WPA? Sounds like you are the one who's looking at closer credentials, not the Cubs. And you know that WPA is a counting stat? And Chapman missed the first month of the season? Chapman ranks 8th among relievers in WPA this year at Fangraphs, but has a higher WPA/IP rate than 6 of the guys ahead of him. (Edit: Coke to Brock!) If you want to diss Chapman because of the off-field stuff, that's fine, but it doesn't change the fact that he is clearly one of the most dominant relievers in the league (a reputation that isn't earned in a year or two by SD/MD and WPA). And his trade to the Cubs is primarily based on that record, not his closer credentials, and thus has no bearing in the thread subject at hand (Kintzler).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Well stated. The jury is obviously still out on Buxton in MLB, but it was probably better to pick top 2 in 2012 too than #5 (the oft injured Kyle Zimmer). That year the Astros leveraged their #1 into an under-slot Correa and above-slot McCullers later. Not that #4 or #5 picks are bad players, but you generally don't have the same shot at elite talents or leveraging slots like you do at #1 or #2. (That said, from their August/September records, it looks like the Twins may have been more or less tanking at the end of the season from 2011-2013.)
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Makes me wish we had actually tried that -- Pelfrey has managed 0.6 bWAR since he returned from surgery in 2013. In that same time frame, Kintzler has managed 2.8 bWAR....
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Hey, Palka still has a couple months of being 24 years old. Let's not age him prematurely. So you're saying, an astute GM might flip Palka for catching depth this winter?
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I don't see that. When we acquired him last year, Jepsen had a career 0.6 HR/9 and 8.5 K/9 in consistently high leverage work. Kintzler has stepped up nicely, but even this year he has a 1.2 HR/9 and a 5.9 K/9, and similar rates for his career (0.9 HR/9, 6.5 K/9). For his career, he's been a neutral leverage pitcher. He's more valuable than, say, Blaine Boyer, but I think his effectiveness is probably viewed as closer to Boyer on the spectrum than even Jepsen 2015, much less the arms that went before Jepsen last year and the arms that are being swapped and discussed so far this year.
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