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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe, but Miller's contract is so reasonable, they certainly don't have to. With that rotation, they must plan to contend in 2017-2018 too. Perhaps if they can bolster their offense in the process, they'd flip Miller, but 3B might be their only open spot on offense going into 2017, and Ramirez has had a nice utility season and could cover the position, Punto-style. Another Uribe type signing? (Maybe a non-tendered Plouffe?)
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    But they also have a lot more supply in the offseason. There is no FA market right now, and a bunch of teams are unwilling to trade MLB assets (because they too are contending). I'd add, I think teams are more likely to be optimistic about players bouncing back over an offseason rather than in-season. (For example, the Twins might have more hope this winter that Nolasco will finally have a decent year in 2017, as compared to their optimism about Nolasco having a decent final two months in 2016 when he's already had 4 months of 5+ ERA pitching this year.)
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Bundy is out of options, yes (thanks to being one of the last draftees allowed to sign a MLB contract). But he's not arb eligible -- he was on optional assignment pretty much all of 2012-2015. He's only briefly been on a MLB disabled list, late last year. Cot's has him with only 26 days MLB service time entering this season. So he can't be arb eligible until after 2018: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/baltimore-orioles/ All that said, Baltimore isn't trading him.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Big upgrade? Stroman has the same FIP and thus fWAR as Santana in 2016, plus he is averaging more IP per GS than Santana too. He was pretty darn good as a rookie (2 bWAR, 3 fWAR in just ~4 months in 2014), plus he came back pretty strong from missing 5 months for a non-arm injury in 2015. For a guy who peaked at #55 in the BA and MLB top 100, that's solid. Also, Stroman actually hasn't used any of his options yet. He was added to the 40-man roster in May 2014, and optioned for only 12 days that year (and you have to spend 20+ days on optional assignment to burn an option). He's been on the MLB roster or DL ever since then. Maybe they'd option Stroman or send him to the pen to conserve his innings this year (and bolster the pen, where Storen let them down), but I don't see them dealing him in favor of Ervin Santana. Long-term, Santana would probably replace RA Dickey, who is a free agent after the year and having a worse season than Stroman (slightly better ERA than Stroman, but much, much worse FIP).
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Or they could just send down Boshers, he has given up runs in 3 of his 4 games back, and they don't really need 3 LHP in the pen. Boshers was also fairly low leverage, which is presumably innings that Duffey will take, at least at first.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    He had to choose the list when we most certainly could have been interested in acquiring him.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps Milwaukee did talk to him about it earlier, and gave Cleveland a chance to come to an arrangement with him (i.e. an extension, or extra cash). But it didn't work out.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you are right, TR voted starting.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I appreciate the creativity of the Rosario/Abad deal. Cody Anderson seems the more likely get, as Clevinger seems pretty well regarded (B+ from Sickels). If included, Hillman would be a bigger piece than Anderson too, Sickels sounds like he might have him as a B. I am not sure they deal him without getting a C or 3B in return (they actually have 4 healthy OF who are out-performing Eddie Rosario in 2016 OPS+ right now).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    As for Sandy Alcantara of the Cardinals, Sickels also has him on the rise, suggesting a B- grade in his mid season update. Seems pretty steep for Kintzler, the Cardinals don't seem aggressive about trading prospects. Seems like they have targeted cheaper bullpen projects in the past? Their pen right now doesn't seem to bad either, yeah Rosenthal struggled and is hurt but Oh has been amazing, and they seem to have a few steady but not dominant Kintzler types already. Just noticed you also suggested sweetening the deal with a prospect, I would be curious what guys you would consider for that.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Very fun article, and good research! But I think you aim too high at times. Austin Barnes will not be a throw-in to a Nolasco-Sierra salary swap, they actually just recalled him. Also, even without Kershaw and Ryu, the Dodgers have 4 starters better than Nolasco, plus DeLeon in AAA if they choose to call him up. I don't think the Dodgers would be in a rush to make this deal before the nonwaiver deadline, and once we get to August, including Barnes would be impossible as he is on the 40-man and would not clear waivers (although I suppose he could be a PTBNL who comes over after the season). Barnes is a B- prospect by Sickels, and a good defensive catcher who is MLB ready. You have to include more value than Nolasco to get him, perhaps one of our B- prospects if the Dodgers like them, Polanco or Gonsalves? And if you acquired Barnes, why in the world would you call up Garver from AA?
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Thought experiment: if we hadn't already acquired him for Nunez, would you have accepted Mejia in return for Suzuki? Abad? Kintzler? Ervin Santana?
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I think I agree. It would be a fun trade to see as a fan, if nothing else!
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    The transaction tree is more just a trivia thing. I think absent Sulbaran, we probably would have acquired the DFA'd Nunez just the same with another fringe type prospect. That said, I hope there are even bigger things in store for this transaction tree, on the new Mejia branch!
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, they probably shouldn't have limited his reps this year by pairing him with Turner. That should have already been corrected with a promotion to AAA, I'd say. That said, I don't think some MLB catching reps before AAA ones is really that risky.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps. Although Washington is cruising to the postseason again with a fairly leaky pen, so Miller would be incredibly valuable to them. And while Giolito is obviously a top prospect, the Nationals do have Scherzer and Strasburg signed long term, have had little trouble developing quality starters around them, and also have Lopez as a top SP prospect too. If they think it will take Giolito a few more years to harness his talent, there are worse ways to spend that asset than landing Miller right now.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I am intrigued by Giolito at this point, more than enamored. Still a tough offer to decline. Although Miller has a 14.8 K/9 over the last 4 years, and a 1.86 ERA / 1.81 FIP the last 3 years. And he is even better than that in this, the present season, at age 31, and is signed affordably for ages 32-33. Perkins spiked up to 11.1 K/9 once, and also peaked at a 2.30 ERA / 2.49 FIP that year, and of course he's 33 this year. Those numbers would still fetch something today, although I'm not sure quite what. I don't recall, what was the market for relievers like in July 2013? That would have been the time to trade him, I guess, and instead we extended him the following spring. Actually you could make a good case that we should have bid on Andrew Miller ourselves in the offseason of 2014-2015! I suspect NY would have paid whatever it took to get him, but at 4/36 he turned out to be a steal. (We would have saved $22 mil too by trading and thus not extending Perkins...)
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Good post. To be fair to the Twins, while Willingham's value was at an all-time high in July 2012, I don't know if it was very high in absolute terms. Do SP hold their value better than LF/DH sluggers?
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think receiving skills have such a linear correlation with experience. Pinto was catching professionally for 7 years when he reached MLB, I just don't think he had the natural skills in that department. Garver was a 4 year catcher, and 3 year starter, at a pretty good college program, plus a few years in the pros now, so he's not a late conversion. I'll defer to others as to what his natural skills are at the position -- "worse than Turner" might still mean good enough for MLB.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the report! I didn't mean the Gilmartin thing to be a serious close comparison. According to Sickels, Gilmartin pretty much lost his #4 projection once he struggled in AAA in 2013 anyway, so I'd agree that Mejia definitely has the advantage right now. Just thought some of their numbers were similar, and their ages weren't too far off despite their different backgrounds.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    That's an interesting question. It certainly doesn't help that Milone is scuffling this year and earning $4.5 mil, but his career MLB performance to date looks not unlike Mejia's #4 type projection. And that salary may not climb much in arb, or perhaps could decline after a non-tender. Of course, it's not necessarily an either-or proposition.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    He's not a borderline top 100, unless he suddenly turns it up a notch. Nobody has him in their top 100, except BA's midseason list which excluded 2016 drafts/signings. Judging by his relative ranks from BA, MLB, and his grade from Sickels, he's probably part of a large (100+) group in consideration for 140-175 ranks overall, if more lists went down to that level. Mejia is doing just fine in terms of age, but probably not enough to warrant any bonus points. He had a better case when he reached AA 2 years ago, but he wasn't that good then. In the AFL last year and AA this year, he was probably close enough to average age (within 1.5 years) that it doesn't mean a whole lot anymore. And the AAA average pitcher age is 26.8, which you can imagine is skewed by a lot of non-prospects. But there is no shame in reaching AAA at age 23 as Mejia has done.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Could be, I'm no expert on that. I was thinking more statistically, and fairly generic in terms of "profile" (left handed, similar height, finesse/control oriented rather than power).
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks. That is encouraging -- still "projecting as a number four starter" but he also notes "with some chance to be a number three."
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, the 40-man thing will be a non-issue if they make some bold moves otherwise, either aggressive trading or cuts.
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