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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    And Walker's 40 man benefits continue. Tell me again why he would have preferred to clear waivers and be outrighted off the Twins roster?
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't forget Cal Ripken Baseball, which featured the Boston batting champ Spade Froggs!
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Good point. Wolfson said on Twitter that the podcast would mention a "Big name FA #MNTwins have expressed interest in" but it does not appear to have been Napoli. The only MLB free agent mentioned was Edinson Volquez (who had already signed elsewhere by the time of the podcast). https://twitter.com/DWolfsonKSTP/status/803800347517091840
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    It also adds an extra layer of uncertainty to the World Series schedule -- under the old alternating system, every fan knew the dates of potential World Series home games at the beginning of the season, and under the ASG version, every fan knew in mid-July. Now, many fans won't know until after both LCS wrap up. Not that it's a big deal, but the negative effects of non-record-based HFA seemed so slight to begin with, that it seems worth noting.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    That's pretty far-fetched. The Twins or Tigers would still have to reach the World Series for the White Sox to even achieve the desired (minor) effect in your scenario. And I can't imagine any player or coach remotely caring about that level of potential "spite" -- seriously, changing the order of the home/away games for a team, if that team reaches the final championship series? Who cares? Even fans, who buy into "spiting a rival" more than the guys on the field, probably wouldn't care about this. Heck, if it brought any kind of national media attention to the game, the players and coaches would probably want to perform better rather than tank. (And if that team is in a non-playoff position itself, they are probably fighting for their jobs at that point.) There is a ton more risk of a team tanking to knock a division rival out of the playoffs, or into a less advantageous first round or wild card matchup. And we don't even care about that, because it's pretty much a non-issue. The HFA scenario is a step below that, a non-non-issue, I suppose.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. And we're not looking to deal Dozier because of money, so there is no harm in picking up a speculative piece with the payroll we would be shedding. I have no problem with Puig at 2 years, $17.5 mil (again, assuming he's not the centerpiece of the deal).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Napoli's been fading the last couple years, and he looked like an easy out in the postseason this year. I don't like the idea of Falvey going after his own familiar suspect!
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    That would mean even more rapid-fire claims and DFAs, which is apparently what most other posters in this thread are trying to avoid.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I think national media members probably have a similar bias as fans do, just for different reasons. It is harder to speculate about trade packages around lower tier prospects, and such suggestions don't get much attention either. I'd guess every national writer regularly speculates about top prospects getting dealt when few actually ever get moved. I'd guess team fans, while overrating their own players/prospects and also wishing and hoping for the best return, also often fall into this trap. It is just a lot harder and less "sexy" to conjure up a trade package that doesn't include elite prospects. While the Dozier talk is fun, ai suspect that nothing remotely concrete has been discussed, leaving fans and the media to pretty much aim for the sky. Especially when they are trying to predict the return on a trade that isn't terribly likely to happen anyway -- almost by definition, a team may have to "overpay" just to conceive of getting a deal done.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure if pay is a completely separate issue. We all sort of accept that athletes can get jerked around a bit if they are compensated for it. Problem is, minor leaguers don't seem to get compensated much for it (akin to college athletes too). And while your rule would stop some waiver claims, I'm not sure that's good for guys like Walker. So he clears waivers a couple weeks ago and gets outrighted by the Twins -- how is that better for Walker? While salary isn't an issue in the offseason, benefits are: http://athletewealth.com/mlb40man/ Also, presumably if Walker can survive on a 40-man roster through the tender deadline, he can lock in a higher minor league salary for 2017? (Not sure exactly how that works, though.) And maybe your rule would be enough to encourage another team to try waiving and outrighting their own version of Walker that they were previously considering protecting.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Prorated to Garbe's PA, Jackson had 44 XBH to Garbe's 24. 15 HR to Garbe's 6. That's a pretty massive advantage, no? And a similar difference in their age-19 seasons. And Jackson didn't lose that playing time due to health, his team chose to hold him back in extended spring training. Part of Garbe's better K rate is also due to his era -- his league's K rate was 3.4% lower than Jackson's league K rate. Although Garbe still has an advantage in that department, it's not as big as a straight comparison would suggest. (Likewise in BB%, while Jackson trails Garbe slightly, he actually outpaces his league BB% by a slightly greater margin than Garbe too.) Garbe was pushed a step further up the ladder those years, but still, I see some semblance of a skill (power) in Jackson's performance to date. Obviously not enough to put him on a MLB track alone, but something is better than nothing.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, though, increasing the burden on the claiming team only further encourages teams to drop guys from the 40-man roster. I think the issue you describe is partly mitigated by the fact that team assignments don't really matter in the offseason -- it will make no material difference to Walker to be property of 3 different organizations this month. Maybe akin to a pay raise, giving the players a small cut of the waiver fee would be appropriate? Not enough to make them want to get waived, but enough that they are adequately compensated if they have to at least consider moving or changing other plans.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course. I didn't mean to imply that organizations don't differ in their opportunities for a player, that much is obvious. Just saying that if the Twins and Brewers both want to outright him off their 40-man roster, the Twins don't have any greater claim to do so. Your very limited free agency idea is an interesting one, although again a lot of the benefit would go to teams. The Twins would have more incentive to drop guys like Walker from the roster if you give them another way to possibly retain them. And the player's "choice" in the matter is so limited as to be virtually nonexistent (pretty much whatever 2-3 teams that had an open 40 man roster spot to claim you during the waiver period, but didn't want you on said roster). Pro sports leagues are inherently pretty unfair to players in terms of team assignments and other contract restrictions, and fiddling around the margins isn't going to do much. An across the board increase in pay and benefits for minor leaguers is past due, and many times more important than tweaking waiver rules.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    A .659 OPS is similar to a .740 OPS? For context, I know Garbe was in the FSL, but it looks like Garbe had a higher league OPS too (.697 vs .672). Admittedly A+ is a step above A, but it does appear that Jackson has shown some power skill so far that Garbe never demonstrated.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Good point, I had forgotten about Heyward -- although indeed that trade only very broadly resembles the Dozier situation. Heyward had just turned 25 years old when they acquired him, just a year older than Miller. (And Miller had already lost some of his shine at that point, resembling the "#3 starter" type that so many here want to avoid leading a Dozier return.) The Cardinals also got a pretty good bullpen weapon in Jordan Walden in that trade, although he succumbed quickly to shoulder injury. And with the death of Oscar Taveras, the Cardinals had a pretty obvious hole in their outfield plans for Heyward to fill, unlike their current crowded infield which would require jettisoning someone on a long-term contract to fit Dozier.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Jackson has been a disappointment so far, but he's not a BJ Garbe level bust yet or anything. A 120 wRC+ in his first full season of A ball last year at age 20, 140 in a partial season of A- last year. If he adds some positional versatility, he could be on a MLB track. Successfully switching back to catcher would be huge for that. Still pretty unlikely, but the Braves didn't give up much to take that chance -- in fact, they have freed up a 40-man roster spot to use somewhere else. (And Jackson, like Nick Gordon, will not require a 40-man spot for another 2 seasons.)
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    At least Dean is signing this deal under his own power as a true free agent. It was hard to embrace many of the Twins recent moves to Asia (Albers, Johnson, attempts with Colabello and Vargas) because the players were sold by the club, without getting an honest shot to catch on with other North American clubs first.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Dean is probably an unlikely candidate to hit 40-50 HRs a season. Perhaps he could allow that many, though!
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I should also note, for any teams craving Dozier's 42 HR power, they can now have Chris Carter's 41 HR power for virtually nothing. Of course, "virtually nothing" also describes what Chris Carter provides on a baseball field, aside from those HR.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    It should be noted that Wong started the year poorly (64 wRC+), was demoted briefly in June, and came back much better and closer to his old self (99 wRC+) whom the Cardinals already awarded a long-term contract. He's also a plus defender and baserunner. I would be mildly surprised if they decided to move on from him at this point. They've got a crowded infield, but more likely they move on from Peralta and mix-and-match Wong, Carpenter, Diaz, and Gyorko. The Cardinals also don't have much of a recent history of dealing top prospects, IIRC. And while the Cubs are obviously very good, I don't think the Cardinals are sweating that much. Given their payroll constraints, Pittsburgh has likely peaked for awhile, and Cincinnati and Milwaukee are still very much rebuilding. If they can't win the division, the Cards should still be firmly in the wild card mix again without making any splashy moves (which again, I don't think they have much of a history doing -- it would be almost like predicting a splashy move for our Twins!).
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting move by the Brewers, bringing Eric Thames back from Korea and dropping Chris Carter: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/brewers-sign-eric-thames.html If nothing else, it should provide more data for future Korea-to-USA stat projections...
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Or, more likely, it just means the Twins aren't likely to trade him. But I agree, it has been a bigger conversation this offseason than what I was expecting, which has been fun and interesting even if nothing materializes.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I see no reason to think Castro would be fluent in Spanish. I don't know his precise ancestral roots, but it sounds like they've all been born and raised in America dating back at least a couple generations: http://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/astros/article/Burning-desire-to-win-5259737.php In college at Stanford, Castro "majored in sociology, with an emphasis in business and economic sociology": http://www.gostanford.com/news/2013/4/17/208432460.aspx
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    On the other hand, though, rentals often inflate returns, because the acquiring team is guaranteed a pennant race (and sometimes virtually guaranteed a postseason berth) with the new player. I guess the Dodgers have about as good of a chance as anyone for 2017 right now, but I'm not sure we can really project an offseason return for Dozier based on rental trade returns plus a bonus for Dozier's contract control.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    There could definitely be improvements to that system! Although on the flip side, this contributes to scarcity of available players which can boost individual player values. The biggest example is MLB free agency -- recall how Charlie Finley argued in the 1970s that they should make every player a free agent, every year. There would still be some bidding wars for top talent, but overall that would have depressed player values. I think the same sort of applies to marginal guys like Walker. There are plenty of other assets like him -- but most of them are not freely available at any given moment. The Brewers probably don't claim him if a bunch of similar assets are free agents every year, or aren't subject to the draft or whatever. Maybe Walker doesn't even get added to the Twins 40-man last year either if that is the case. Maybe electing free agency, if that was possible for Walker, would depress his value -- would teams be less interested in signing him, knowing their control would expire after 1 year?
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