Otto von Ballpark

I can't see the full article as a non-subscriber, but only 2 of the top 12 "Cream of the Crop" guys from this BA preview were actually selected -- Haley and Tyler Webb: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/rule-5-draft-expanded-preview/#tK2STbKIPtrI1qYh.97

While I don't doubt the sincerity of Dave or his source, I'm not sure this report is good (assuming it is accurate). The Dodgers have made an offer, that much seems to be known from other sources too. But if the offer contained two of De Leon, Alvarez, and Bellinger (or whatever other top Dodgers prospects I may be missing!), I don't think anybody would be waiting or drawing it out -- the Twins would pretty much engage the Dodgers and hammer out the details immediately at that point. This suggests to me that the Dodgers offer is pretty light -- basicially De Leon and a couple minor pieces -- and Dave's source seems to think the Twins will break down and accept an offer that most of us would be disappointed with. (Or the source is over-confident that the Twins can get an upgraded counter-offer readily accepted.)

Just out of curiosity, what was you miss?

CF to RF penalty is something like 9 runs, although he could make that up fairly easily by going from a below average CF to an above average RF (which he has shown some ability to do). I know corner players are less desirable for good reason, but Eaton is an interesting case that seems to present multiple viable options to his club. And it sounds like the Nats plan to take advantage, using him in CF in 2017 and then shifting him to RF the following year after Werth's contract is up.

So Dave, we remember your Mauer extension news. What were the other Twins tidbits that comprise your "3 out of 4" record?

They probably don't want Turner in CF long-term before he has had a chance at SS. Remember Danny Santana? No team knows where it is going to be in 5 years, but that doesn't mean 5 years of control has no value. They have more options with Eaton -- if the team fades after a couple years, they can always flip him to rebuild/reload. If he struggles, well, the last 2 of those 5 years are team options. There is zero time to realistically flip Dozier, and zero chance of extending him as cheaply as Eaton is controlled. Finally, you keep assuming that Dozier is definitively better than Eaton based entirely off of 2016. Eaton has the higher career OPS, for Pete Redfern's sake. Eaton has steadily averaged 16 Rbat the last 3 years. Dozier did post 30 last year, but was actually -2 the year before that, and 13 the year before that. There is a good chance that that Dozier is no better offensively than Eaton in 2017, and an excellent chance that any Dozier advantage is relatively minor (under 10 runs or 1 win). And in terms of defensive value, there really isn't that much difference between an averageish defensive second baseman and a slightly below average defensive CF or an excellent defensive corner outfielder. The 2B positional adjustment is +4, and Dozier has averaged +1 Rfield, for a net +5 runs per season. CF positional adjustment is +3, and Eaton has averaged -2 runs in CF, for a net +1. 4 runs difference, less than half a win. Plus there is evidence that Eaton could be a superlative corner OF -- RF comes with a -6 run positional adjustment, but Eaton had 22 Rdrs in his time in RF last year, more than making up for that and even some potential offensive difference. Not to say that Dozier can't be a better player/fit for some teams, but it is not definitive at all.

To be fair, I they have a right to be upset a bit. Pretty bad the way they have wasted the cheap primes of some very good players, even if this is the best way to salvage something going forward.

Dozier wasn't even a Dozier until a few months ago. I think you overestimate the ease of finding a comparable player to Eaton. He has averaged 5.1 bWAR over the past 3 years. Dexter Fowler's career high is 4.2, and his next best is 2.8. And he's 3 years older than Eaton, and will cost a first round draft pick and a lot more than Eaton's current contract. Not to mention, the Nats don't have unlimited funds. Getting a strong outfielder at a discount is what helps them afford a Max Scherzer. (Moreover, if you are discussing Dozier vs Eaton for the Nats specifically, the Nats are stacked in the middle infield with Turner, Murphy, and Espinosa. There is just no way that Dozier would be of equal value to them as Eaton. The calculus is hopefully different for another club, of course.)

You're knocking a .790 OPS, but last year was Dozier's first time topping .762. Consistency also comes into play -- Dozier has a much more volatile projection. Also reports on Eaton's CF defense are somewhat mixed. I wouldn't be surprised if he handled it at an average level for a year or two yet (he is still 2 years younger than Dozier after all). And if you don't like him at CF, you still have a plus corner defender. If Dozier slips a bit defensively at 2B in his 30s, what do you have?

Didn't Jeremy have a source that confirmed Ervin was headed to the Blue Jays at the trade deadline too?

Rumor has it the Nats may move Harper to CF and keep Eaton in a corner.

Below average defensively, not overall. Also, might want to check on that for Dozier. Altuve and Canon both outpaced Dozier by a good amount in bWAR.

No doubt. But teams aren't necessarily willing to give up a lot of talent to make that particular upgrade.

Doesn't seem like any other media outlets have picked up that report, assuming it was a report and not speculation.

Florida. Twins has first pick, picked the Marlins choice of player, then flipped him to the Marlins for their choice Santana and some extra cash.

There's been nothing remotely this concrete reported yet, though. Biggest thing was the Dodgers piqued the Twins interest, but even that called more rumor than fact.

I don't think so. They can protect quite a few players for the minor league phase.

The Nats were pushing Giolito this past summer too.

Who is this source feeding his exclusive blockbuster information to the "Spirit of Vodka Dave" and leaving major media and social media outlets in the dark? Is Mark DeRosa involved somehow?

I don't know if teams are in the market for an Ervin type, though.

Eaton has a career 116 OPS+, which was higher than Dozier's previous career high. Also he is 2 years younger with 5 years of control on his deal too. And Giolito is notably below Urias. Giolito is still a prospect, Urias is a budding star.

Dodgers need outfielders? Pederson, Puig, Thompson, and Tholes were all better than Rosario last year, both offensively and defensively per B-Ref OPS and Rfield. They still have Van Slyke too who has better career numbers than Rosario despite losing much of 2016 to injury. There's room to add another option out there, but Rosario probably isn't worth much to them. Backup 2B is also meaningless, the Dodgers would still have to carry a utility infielder who would be far better with the glove than Rosario who hasn't played the position at all in over 2 years, and hasn't played it with any regularity for over 3.

"Freaking potent" is probably an oversell, or not taking park factors into account. The Rockies offense was 8th of 15 in the NL, and 16th of 30 in MLB, by wRC+ last year. And that's with career seasons from LeMahieu and Blackmon, and Story probably due for some regression too. And they just spent $70 mil and the 11th overall pick on a lateral move at 1B (plus a backup SS/CF, if you give Desmond credit for positional versatility).

Desmond is going to play 1B? That's terrible. Desmond had a 104 OPS+ last year, 100 career. The Rockies 1B last year, Mark Reynolds, had a 101 OPS+, and a 104 career mark. And Reynolds graded out as an average defender at 1B too, and played for a $2.6 mil salary. Even Desmond's positional flexibility isn't worth much in Colorado, because they are set at CF and all around the infield. He's basically a glorified 1B and corner OF there.

Some might quibble with "fair deal." After his hot start, Desmond finished last season with a 104 OPS+. He has a 100 career mark, and hasn't been significantly better than that since his age 26-27 seasons. He hasn't been much other than an average defender either. And in the last year of teams being able to lose first round picks, the Rockies just forfeited the #11 overall pick (and its accompanying slot value) for the right to guarantee Desmond $14 mil per year for his age 31-35 seasons. It's a fairly weak market too, so it doesn't look like the Rockies will even be able to sign another FA with qualifying offer attached (which would have effectively bumped Desmond's forfeiture down to a 2nd rounder). Trumbo, Encarnacion, Bautista, Fowler, Jansen, and Turner are the only ones left.