Otto von Ballpark
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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark
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Is "camping with the dolphins" kinda like "sleeping with the fishes"? -
Update: $1.25 mil base salary, plus incentives.
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I wonder if "non-guaranteed" simply means it is subject to the same termination pay clause as arbitration eligible deals (so the team can cut him by March 15th and only owe him one month's salary).
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Why didn't the marching band simply refuse to yield? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5ecvBaqHBk&t=280
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What happened to Ken Bone?
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Technically, as an arb-eligible player, the Twins can cut Santiago by March 15th and only owe him one month termination pay (roughly 1/6th of his salary). That's pretty rare, and I am sure the Twins won't do that to Santiago, of course. It did happen to Emilio Bonifacio a few years ago.
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Not sure what you mean? Just pointing out that the Dodgers made a $32 mil investment in Alvarez recently, one that doesn't appear to have been unsound. It would be weird for them to deal him, plus other prospects with value, for $60 mil surplus value from Dozier over the next two years. Hence why I suspect Alvarez hasn't ever really been on the table (at least not along with De Leon or Bellinger).
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I'm not showing Matt Boyd any particular "love". You said they would have more reinforcements available if they had taken a better approach. They did have a reinforcement in Boyd, one who performed better than Smyly in their 2016 MLB samples, in addition to reinforcements in Fulmer and Norris. Are you really arguing that, had the Tigers not forfeited their late first round picks in 2010-2012, they would have definitively had more than 3 starting pitchers come up from the minors in 2016 to pitch acceptably well or better? Feel free to use average returns on 19th and 27th overall picks, if you prefer. They're not that great. Unless you want to play "hindsight draft" it is extremely unlikely that those 3 picks would provide the Tigers as much value as Fielder/Kinsler, Martinez, and Valverde. Those guys have already helped the Tigers to a World Series appearance, two ALCS appearances, plus an 86 win season in the wild card hunt in the 7 seasons since they forfeited that 2010 pick. And they could still get more value from two of those players too, either in performance or trade. I have followed this discussion, and I think you're repeatedly making a generic argument without looking at the particulars. Yes, having an average farm system is better than having a bad one, all else being equal. No one is going to argue with you on that point. But all else isn't equal here -- the Tigers haven't been particularly limited in budget, and have received considerable MLB contributions from FA and trade acquisitions (even prospects!), as recently as this just-concluded season.
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Thanks for the update!
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They were going for it last year too, and they signed Utley over better options (Zobrist, Murphy, trading for Neil Walker). And Utley was coming off a worse season then too. And for all intents and purposes, Utley is still their incumbent second baseman, even if he's not technically signed right now -- I don't see him signing anywhere else until the Dodgers close that door, especially now that the Angels have acquired a 2B. Born and raised in LA, plus he can get more money, more playing time, and a better shot at the postseason in LA than anywhere else.
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By defensive metrics, they are pretty close. Remember Forsythe wasn't a fulltime 2B anywhere until 2015, really, and his worst marks defensively at the position came in his utility years. Just averaging the last two years: Dozier: +0.7 UZR/150, -5.5 TZ/yr, +0.5 DRS/yr Forsythe: -1.4 UZR/150, -8.5 TZ/yr, +5.0 DRS/yr Hard not to see that as a wash. Offensively, Forsythe is actually 1.4 runs ahead of Dozier in Rbat per 500 PA over the last 2 years. Even if you average their last 3 years, when Forsythe was still a pretty bad hitter, Dozier is only ahead by 3.7 runs per 500 PA. Dozier and Forsythe have the exact same number of above-average Rbat seasons (2 each). And Forsythe's came consecutively, if you want to consider consistency. Dozier's advantage is pretty much entirely based on how much you buy into his 2016 hitting explosion, which was about 1 win (10 runs) above Forsythe's peak. Plus a minor bonus for a couple extra average hitting seasons (2013 and 2015) on his resume too, which raises his floor above Forsythe's. Considering that Friedman left Tampa on his own, and that his replacement was his former right-hand man Silverman, I don't think it would notably change their approach to trading. If anything, they might have an easier time finding common ground. In a general sense, Tampa seems to have closed more deals than the Twins (or Indians with Falvey) in recent years, that could help them come to an agreement too.
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Technically 21st in bWAR at 2B, but within a rounding error (0.2) of 16th and league average production: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2016.shtml#team_output::none Similar story by fWAR, 17th: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2016&month=37&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=11,d Utley intends to play and hasn't signed elsewhere, so I assume he's still an option for the Dodgers.
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Sure, he gets points for durability. I'm not claiming I'd rank him 40th overall. Just saying it's a lot more complicated than looking at raw WAR totals for 2014-2016.
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Why wouldn't Forsythe be in the same discussion? If you get to cherry pick Dozier's last 3 years, I don't see what's the harm in cherry picking the last 2 years and seeing that Forsythe is virtually equal in performance/value to Dozier over that time frame. Not saying Forsythe is actually equal or better, but he can absolutely be part of the discussion. Ryan Braun is also not an "absolute butcher" in left field; you are probably thinking of his early career work at 3B. Metrics have him right around average for his career work in LF, without any definitive recent trend downward yet. Considering that the Dodgers managed league-average production at 2B last year, and significantly below league average production in LF, it's not far-fetched to think they might choose to invest more in a LF upgrade than 2B.
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I think you are mis-interpreting -- obviously the money is already spent. But it can serve as a proxy for value -- it's a data point suggesting that Alvarez was worth ~$32 mil just a year ago. And that has probably increased a bit now that he's had a healthy and successful transition so far; maybe even further because prospects like him are harder to acquire now with the hard cap on international spending.
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Not sure that's quite right either. WAR is a counting stat, and Dozier has the 3rd most PA in MLB over the last 3 seasons. If I take the top 100 WAR guys from 2014-2016 at Fangraphs, and sort them by WAR per PA, Dozier ranks 40th. His age doesn't help him either, when you consider there are young guys like Addison Russell and Christian Yelich just behind him in this ranking.
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Weird Bert Blyleven Story
Otto von Ballpark replied to Brandon Warne's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I doubt it was intentionally fabricated, and it's not at all a weird thing to mis-remember. Blyleven was traded a lot, and it is logical that when his teams were shopping him, he would ask about being traded to the Angels since he is indeed from California. Don Baylor is a memorable player whose longest tenure with any team was with the Angels, and in fact he was with the Angels when Blyleven was traded both after 1977 and again after 1980. It sounds like Blyleven is simply mis-attributing that specific circumstance to the 1985 trade discussions instead of his earlier ones, which doesn't seem unusual after 30+ years. (Sounds like a lot of discrepancies I notice in conversation with older relatives during the holiday season too. ) -
Another way to look at Yadier Alvarez: the Dodgers just signed him a year ago for a total cost of $32 million ($16 mil bonus + $16 mil penalty). Elsewhere in this discussion, the surplus value of Dozier's remaining contract was pegged at $60 mil (based on the average of his performances the last 3 years). So by including Alvarez, the Dodgers, in a way, would be giving back over half the surplus value they could reasonably expect out of Dozier.
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I'm not sure ultimatums are going to work here. The Dodgers didn't do anything long-term at the position last year, and still got league average production out of the position. That is certainly an option for them again in 2017. Their only below-average position last year was LF, and they've already dropped Howie Kendrick and are probably looking for increased contributions from among Thompson, Toles, Puig, and Van Slyke.
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Cameron did nail the Chris Sale return perfectly.
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How Will The New CBA Affect The Twins?
Otto von Ballpark replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Interesting question! The next Moncada or Alvarez (20 year old Cuban stars) could sign a ~4 year deal in Japan, getting more money than any MLB team could offer, and then come to the USA at age 25 and sign a MLB deal with zero restrictions. -
Yes. Forsythe is actually a pretty good match for Dozier: same age, largely same performance over the past 2 seasons, 2 years club control remaining for ~$15 mil. Plus some added flexibility in the field (not so important now that Turner has re-signed), and in his contract (his second year of control is actually a club option). Friedman even traded for Forsythe while he was still in Tampa, before going to the Dodgers, and apparently the Dodgers inquired about him this past summer too. I haven't seen any chatter about Forsythe for the Dodgers since Nov. 20, but maybe that's just because I don't know Tampa's equivalent to Dave! http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/dodgers-interested-in-logan-forsythe.html
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Depends on what Kinsler's demands would be. Right now he is going to hit the open market next entering his age 37 season, he can't expect much of a long-term deal at that point. So there could be some value for him in simply guaranteeing his age 37-38 salaries right now. Another way to look at it: tear up the two years left on his current deal, and give him a new 4 year deal. I'd still say it's unlikely, but it might just be because the Tigers have similar high prospect demands as the Twins.
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How long have you been saying "the Tigers are moving down not up"? Even a broken clock is correct twice a day... Kinsler is 34, Martinez is almost 38. Every team should be listening to offers on those players, regardless of contention status. Up front? Kinsler and Martinez are still contributing now, 4-5 years later after those forfeited draft picks. Why can't you credit the Tigers for that? Why pick on them because they didn't instead roll the dice on Matt Barnes and Clint Coulter (the two guys taken with the picks they forfeited)? Knowing when to forfeit draft picks and trade prospects, and knowing what veterans to acquire, is a skill. And the Tigers have been good at it.
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Smyly got them Price, who helped them to the playoffs once and then got them Norris and Boyd who were both better than Smyly last year. I don't think you're really thinking this through. It sounds nice in theory to say "they should have focused less on winning now and more on the farm system and they would have been better off" but there are so many variables around player acquisition and development, it rarely works out so neatly. The Tigers aren't perfect, but by any reasonable measure, they have a good team and have had a very good 10 year stretch. It seems folly to criticize them for taking the "wrong" approach.
