Otto von Ballpark
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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark
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They also aren't technically allowed to agree to deals with prospects before July 2, but everybody does it. I am sure teams can come to verbal agreements about pool money prior to July 2nd as needed. Not sure if that would extend this far out though (or if it would even be worth it for a Rule 5 pick, I am guessing they come pretty cheap). -
If we want to subtract Bellinger, and add Alvarez, I think that's defensible. But it's also very possible in negotiations -- I don't think you wait or walk away if that's what is on the table and that is what you want.
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We were about to finalize the deal online, but then Dave St. Peter picked up the phone and their modem lost the connection.
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Meaning, the current offer is pretty much De Leon plus lesser prospects? That's what I'm thinking too, and that's still a pretty big gap to overcome. Or do you think the offer could be De Leon plus Bellinger, but the Twins are holding out for Alvarez as a third prospect? That seems like a pretty big gap the opposite direction. Neither scenario quite conforms to Dave's source, though.
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Then why the heck are the Twins leaving the meetings? If the Dodgers want him that bad, I'm pretty sure we can sit down to final negotiations and figure out the 3rd or 4th pieces.
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Thanks for the info on slots. As for when they can starting trading, see this from BA: http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/mlbs-new-international-rules-change-game/#3s3MBuGmgdjisGB4.97 I suppose like any trade, they can make a side agreement to make a future trade, but not only would MLB frown on that, but it probably wouldn't be terribly practical this far out.
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Technically true, but I don't think you pack up and leave while on the verge of completing a major trade either. If 2 of De Leon/Bellinger/Alvarez are on the table, and the Twins fly home, then the Twins aren't serious about trading Dozier, or they are snubbing the Dodgers. Since I don't think either of those are true, I think the Dodgers offer on the table is quite a bit less than that and no deal is imminent.
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Normally, yes -- they get the full pool, but can't sign anyone for more than $300k. So they can trade some "slots" in that pool that would otherwise be of little use to them. But the Padres just went over in the current signing period. So they're not subject to the $300k per player limit until next July. If they traded slots now, they'd probably just have to pay an increased corresponding penalty, no?
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Not a problem. It would make more sense to trade the top pick Diaz for the #3 pick Cordoba, but alas, that's not what happened. I'm still kind of confused how we got the 10th pick Haley, if that's the guy we wanted all along. We pretty much had to know that none of the other teams picking in the top 10 wanted him? And what do the Angels get out of this? Part of the cash we will receive from the Padres for Diaz, I suppose?
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Sounds pretty clear that we got Haley. But indeed it was confusing. MLBTR breaks it down like this: Diaz: Brewers –> Twins –> Padres Torrens: Yankees –> Reds –> Padres Haley: Red Sox –> Angels –> Padres –> Twins I have no idea why Haley had to go to the Padres first, and not directly from the Angels to the Twins... although maybe he didn't really, I think it may have been a 3-way trade that just got mis-reported.
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I don't think Cordoba is coming to the Twins. We're getting a PTBNL or cash for Diaz: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/padres-acquire-rule-5-picks-miguel-diaz-luis-torrens.html
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Is that speculation, or is this confirmed somewhere? I haven't seen anything about the Twins taking on a second Rule 5 pick.
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Eaton to the Nationals for Giolito and more
Otto von Ballpark replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Other Baseball
That sounds about right. I think there are enough red flags about these guys (and their Red Sox haul) to temper expectations a bit. Moncada and Giolito may be the #1 and #3 prospects right now, but it feels a little bit like they are getting those rankings or holding onto them by default, rather than being truly comparable to some other recent top guys. Not that it necessarily makes them bad trades for the White Sox, but I don't think they robbed the Red Sox and Nationals here either. -
The Dodgers would never include Vandelay -- he's potential two-way player (importer and exporter).
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I think if they are cheap, and you have the 40-man room, you might as well grab a bunch now and pick the best one at the end of spring training. Improves your odds in the Rule 5 draft considerably. Heck, if they play DL games, they could probably roster 2 all season using only 1 roster spot, if they wanted.
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Well, the Reds other catcher pick Luis Torrens only managed a .664 in A ball last year (not even high-A). They may have picked him higher to try to flip him, knowing they could get a guy like Turner later? The Reds are pretty thin at catcher and seem determined to rebuild slowly, so who knows. EDIT: And it's done! Torrens flipped to the Padres.
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Actually, neither of those was a particularly "big trade" -- Arrieta was for renting Scott Feldman, and Kluber was for renting Jake Westbrook or Ryan Ludwick (depending on how you slice the 3 team deal). And the thing about Kluber/Arrieta type targets is they're not difficult to acquire. They are difficult to identify and develop to their full potential, of course, but not to acquire if you have an asset of any value (as evidenced by the names above). If the Dodgers have two big names on the table, I am sure the Twins can have their choice of Dodgers farmhands performing comparably to early Kluber and Arrieta as the third piece to get things done. That's part of the final negotiation, the step that you normally jump to once the two big names are on the board.
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LeMahieu's 2016 screams fluke even more than Dozier's. LeMahieu's career WAR was 6.2 entering last season, over the equivalent of 3+ full seasons, and it was mostly defense. Dozier posted a 6.5 last year alone. Plus, nobody puts much faith in a single season like that in Coors Field -- batting champions Morneau, Cuddyer, and LeMahieu! Not sure if LeMahieu is notably cheaper either -- he's only $1.2 mil cheaper in 2017, and he's arb eligible for 2018 and his batting title might inflate that quite a bit even if he comes back to earth next year.
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For Sale, maybe. But Sale is better with a much larger trade market. The Twins have relatively few options to play against the Dodgers, especially if the target is pitching. (And especially now that maybe their second best suitor, the Nats, are out.) I guarantee the White Sox didn't sit on the Red Sox offer once the top two names were on the table, and they didn't sit on the Nationals offer for Eaton when those top two names came up. Two of De Leon/Bellinger/Alvarez for Dozier would pretty close to a "f*****-A" trade offer by the Dodgers, and I think it is highly unlikely the Twins would sit on that without meaningful engagement (which would be noticed by others at the winter meetings) for upwards of 24 hours now.
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That's fair, I was surprised by the Eaton return too. But it still doesn't make sense to me for the Twins to sit on a roughly comparable offer from the Dodgers. To me, an offer of De Leon/Bellinger or De Leon/Alvarez is basically akin to putting Giolito/Lopez or Moncada/Kopech on the table -- it means you want to get it done. I don't think the Twins front office would play games at that point -- if you're not willing to immediately engage that offer and get something done, it's a sign you're not really serious and that could put the whole thing in jeopardy. The Dodgers could turn around and ink Turner at any moment and completely change the complexion of their needs at 2B. (Or jump on a fire sale deal from the White Sox for Frazier and others.)
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It's not really a rush thing, though. Once two top prospect are on the table, things get done. I doubt that the White Sox were sitting on Moncada/Kopech and Giolito/Alvarez offers while they pondered their options in the Rule 5 draft. Teams don't offer two top ~30ish overall prospects just to be told to wait.
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By the most recent MLB rankings, Eaton fetched #3 Giolito and #38 Lopez, plus a third pitcher Dunning -- not sure how he'd rank, he was picked 29th overall in June which is pretty good, but he was a college pitcher in low-A so I don't think he cracks a top 100 yet. Bellinger and De Leon were 32-33 in the rankings; Alvarez 91. If two of those are on the board, you've largely matched the Eaton return as much as possible. At that point, you hammer out the details and get it done, and you can probably get a wild card like Dunning in that process. You don't have to hold out to haggle over those last pieces. Who around the league could we even play against that? The Nationals are out; the Braves would be hard pressed to match it with Swanson off the table. The Yankees could do it, but pretty much only with position player prospects.
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I don't think Dozier is such a hot commodity that they could sit on an offer of two top 30-ish overall prospects (which is what De Leon and Bellinger would represent). That's comparable to the Sale and Eaton returns. If that was on the table, the Twins would hammer out the deal then and there.
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But if the Dodgers really offered De Leon plus Alvarez or Bellinger, I don't think we'd be in a waiting mode, which seems to be the consensus of reports (and isn't really contradicted by your report). Unless you think the Twins have been in active final negotiations with the Dodgers since yesterday and no one else has noticed, which might be believable in sleepy Minnesota but hardly in LA.
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Yes, he still retains his Rule 5 restrictions. He only loses them if we make a deal with his original team (the one he would revert back to if we don't keep him on the 25-man).
