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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    That seems to be the top conclusion at this Dodgers blog: http://www.dodgersnation.com/dodgers-analysis-trading-brian-dozier-can-cost/2016/12/14/ Calhoun is actually interesting. Yeah, I hear he can't really play 2B, and I'm guessing that 27 HR season in the minors last year is a bit inflated by league/park, but he does seem to have some offensive skill AND he hardly ever strikes out. 11.6 K% in AA, 11.7% for his whole minor league career. I think that could be useful to the Twins, even if he winds up in a corner OF.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    No info from Gleeman today -- someone here just posted a Gleeman tweet from 8 days ago.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Faedo? That name smacks of a legacy pick!
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    The $100k is the up-front payment, but at any point the player can be returned for $50k, so it's really only a net $50k investment to make a Rule 5 pick. That's still peanuts for every MLB team. And the Rule 5 player's minimum salary is offset by whatever player they would be replacing on the 25 man roster. If the Twins didn't pick Haley, they'd just give that spot and its salary to someone like Pat Light, or sign another vet for even more than the minimum salary like Abad last season. If teams don't make a Rule 5 pick, it's not about money -- it's about having a better use of the 40-man / 25-man roster spot.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    But you can't just assume that had they acted differently, they would have more/better pitchers to bring up. Who are these specific pitchers that Detroit sacrificed in "win now" efforts that could have helped them in 2016? Jacob Turner (ERA+ of 62)? Drew Smyly (83)? Robbie Ray (89)? In fact, like I showed, 2 of their top 3 starters last year were minor league call-ups, and were actually byproducts of "win now" moves -- Fulmer (135 ERA+) who they got for Cespedes, and Norris (123) who they got for Price. Plus Boyd (91) who they also got for Price. They did forfeit first round picks from 2010-2012 due to free agent signings, although the odds of those picks (19, 19, and 27 overall) producing quality MLB SP were probably pretty low. And the Tigers have received a lot of benefit to date from those FA signings, including Victor Martinez and Prince Fielder/Ian Kinsler, so it's not like those picks were lost for nothing.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Unlikely, and perhaps impossible. Teams can't trade from their bonus pools until the signing period begins on July 2nd, and I believe trades have to be settled within 6 months. And as a practical matter, Rule 5 picks aren't worth that much -- maybe the Twins netted $100k cash with their Rule 5 deals? And bonus pool money is worth more than its cash number, so that would translate to a pretty trivial sum (~$30k?) of bonus pool money.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    At least thanks to the original voided contract and then re-signing with the same club, Perez will now either be placed on the 40-man roster next winter, or he will be subject to the Rule 5 draft. So he'll have a quicker path to the majors. That benefits him (although perhaps not as much as the additional $3 mil in bonus money would have benefitted him!).
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    The main thrust of the article is actually a very specific thing. Perez signed with the Astros for $5 mil a couple months ago, then after a physical they were able to void his contract. But players who previously had a contract with an MLB club are exempt from bonus pool restrictions. Perez is arguing that his voided contract should put him in that exemption group. But of course, MLB says a voided contract means you weren't ever really under contract. And apparently Perez has accepted that fact, judging by his new contract with the Astros. Really doesn't have anything to do with his age or the new rules, specifically.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    But, that $10 mil "market value" figure is actually inflated because of other MLB signing rules. It's based on Perez hypothetically being exempt, but a whole ton of other amateurs, both international and domestic, having their signing ability restricted. And like Ben pointed out above, it's not a particularly new rule. The exemption age has been 23 since 2012, I think. It will go up to 25 next year, per the new agreement. Perez at age 20 wouldn't meet either threshold.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    That .280 figure is actually Dozier's career high BABIP to date. I don't think it's correct to assume he will improve on it simply because it is lower than league average. He profiles as a lower BABIP type hitter. (Not saying he can't be a valuable hitter in the future, just that you can't really count on increased positive value from this aspect of his game.)
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Since this thread started a few days after that Gleeman tweet, that's probably why it hasn't been referred to much. 8 days (and counting) is a lot of time for that "lotta Dodgers steam" to dissipate.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Who was the mythical "another pitcher" that would have been available to Detroit last year, had they chosen a different strategy? Actually two of their top 3 starters (Fulmer and Norris) were proceeds from "win-now" moves (Cespedes and Price). Their worst trade recently had nothing much to do with a "win now" approach but was just a bet on the wrong young player (swapping Travis for Gose, although even there, Travis would have been blocked by a better player in Detroit).
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, way too much. I'm not sure why you'd call Pederson a "bounce back candidate" as he just posted a career high 129 OPS+, second best on the 2016 Dodgers and not far off Dozier's 136. True, Pederson has been platooned, but as a LHB he's the larger share of the platoon, he's still just 24 years old making the league minimum salary, and he's controlled for 4 more seasons. Pederson actually has a reasonable case for being more valuable than Dozier!
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Teams with a rotation like the Twins current have generally aren't looking at competitiveness. That's the thing -- who have we talked about trading Ervin to? The Rangers? Darvish and Hamels. Orioles? Tillman, Gausman, and they hope for Bundy. These clubs don't need a guy at the top of the staff, like the Twins have recently; they need a solid arm to round out their top 4-5. They might be willing to devote some resources to it, but dollars AND prospects might be too much. They can afford some time to see if such an arm emerges from internal options or scrap heap pickups before they commit prospects as well as dollars for a guy like Ervin. His market might heat up in July, but it's hard to say if it will heat up enough to make it worth moving him. It apparently didn't this past July.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    My hypothetical Twins were to be presumed in the same "mode" as the teams that might consider Ervin right now.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, when a team has two consecutive picks, they don't necessarily pick the best one first. Actually they probably want to pick the better one second to justify a slightly lower bonus. (Trout was the second of two consecutive picks that year too.)
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Ah, I didn't realize until now that the other groups in your study were limited to the first 5 rounds, it wasn't really clear. That helps.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Imagine if the Twins were in the market for a starter, not to put us over the top but just to round out a staff. How many posters here would be willing to give up decent prospects in trade for Ervin Santana? Or would more people advocate buying low on a couple of options like Nolasco and Milone first?
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I think there is a small effect. It's a data point suggesting that he relied on PEDs before but either won't be able to use them going forward, or using them will risk a year long suspension. Which wouldn't be such a big deal if he was a free agent right now, because the signing team would reclaim his salary during any suspensions, but there is no such mechanism to reclaim prospects spent to acquire him in trade (just like there wasn't any mechanism for the Twins to reclaim the draft pick they forfeited to sign him, even though he had yet to throw a regular season pitch for us at that point). It's probably way down the list of concerns, but I wouldn't discount it completely. The biggest issue is probably that he's just not viewed as a front-line option, and teams are far more willing to part with cash rather than prospects for such a player (or just wait and roll the dice on internal or lesser options first).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    The later round unsigned picks are primarily the problem, Seth -- team don't necessarily have any real ability (or realistic intent) to sign such players. Teams shouldn't get credit for those picks. The round in which the Twins picked George Springer doesn't even exist anymore. I'm not picking on the Twins for this, just pointing out that including these guys doesn't help the analysis.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Profar already has over 3 years service time. He is only controlled through 2019, so 3 more seasons (or 1 more season than Dozier). (B-Ref says "Free Agent: 2020" but that means he is a free agent for the 2020 season, so club control ends on him after 2019.)
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Read the context of my post, please, rather than responding to one clause in one sentence. Specifically, the immediately following clause of "More importantly, WHEN he will have to be paid" Dozier is only controlled for 2 more years. He's closer to a rental than he is to a long-term asset like Eaton. Every team thinks about that when acquiring a player.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Puig cleared trade waivers. That doesn't mean no one was willing to take his contract for free -- there is a gentleman's agreement among clubs not to claim players unless you are willing to meet the asking price. We don't know the Dodgers asking price -- it's quite possible they made it known they would not move him for anything less than a solid prospect, so other clubs passed on making a claim so they could continue negotiating. (Putting in a claim and letting the Dodgers pull him back would have precluded further negotiation.) I'm not saying Puig has great trade value, but I think it's better than most of us are suggesting. The Dodgers aren't giving him away -- they have no real reason to do so.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    We're still in a "pre-trade" world, and what Dozier will have to be paid, and more importantly when, will affect the likelihood of a trade and the quality of the return. If the Twins are really trying to push the return beyond two very good prospects, I'm not sure the Dodgers will agree. I imagine Dozier has a lower projection than either Eaton or Sale, and he's controlled for a shorter time -- yet if Dave's source is correct, we're essentially holding out until we can get an equal return as those guys.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    No teams wanted Puig at the deadline at the Dodgers asking price. We don't know the Dodgers asking price. I'd be careful about extrapolating too much from that. Even now, when Dave reports the Twins don't want Puig for various reasons, I think a big reason not mentioned is that the Dodgers would want to get more back for including Puig. If the Dodgers were willing to move Puig to whoever was willing to pay his remaining salary, I guarantee someone would have taken him off their hands already.
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