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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    McLeod's brand-new 5 year contract with the Cubs probably precludes it.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Hammel and to an extent Lackey hardly fit the description of "spending lots of money." Their combined guarantee ($52 mil for 4 player seasons) falls right between Nolasco (4/49) and Santana (4/55), and also less per year than the Hughes extension (3/42). Zobrist is in that department too (4/56). Other Cubs free agent acquisitions with 1+ bWAR include Fowler (1/13) and Ross (2/5). If a new Twins front office can better target guys in that range, more power to them! Lester I will grant, as well as Heyward, although the latter clearly hasn't contributed much if anything to the Cubs turnaround so far. Take away those two, the Cubs still make the playoffs this year and last, with a payroll in 2011 Twins territory.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Brock, odds are Ramos will miss a significant portion of the 2017 season (or at least, be unable to catch for a significant portion of the season). In that case, it's hardly in the Nats best interest to give him a QO, which would give them no discount on 2017 but also no control or options for 2018 and beyond. A better approach might be a two year deal, like some pitchers have been signing lately after surgery.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Another look, by average tOPS+ by decade: Decade tOPS+ Close and Late 2010s 90.1 2000s 92.5 1990s 94.2 1980s 96.7 1970s 99.8 1960s 99.7 1950s 100
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    While we certainly hear those excuses, I don't think they have actually been the primary driver behind the trend. Relief pitching is just more effective. A good thing to check on that would be the relative production (tOPS+) for "late & close" situations through the years: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=MLB&year=2016#clutc::none Just glancing back at 10 year intervals, it certainly seems like batters are losing effectiveness (and thus pitchers gaining effectiveness) in such situations: Year tOPS+ 1966 102 1976 98 1986 98 1996 93 2006 93 2016 88 I guess you could still deploy ace starters in complete-game fashion, but once you've established that relievers can often approach ace performance in late innings, and you already have such relievers on your roster, there just isn't much to be gained at that point by making your ace go the distance more often.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I notice this is 2016 data only. Platoon splits, among others, can seem pretty variable year to year because of the nature of the smaller sample. Furthermore, every one of these guys has split the 2016 season between the minors and the majors, so by comparing their platoon splits by level in 2016, you are effectively cutting an already small sample in half. Not really any conclusions you can draw on this data, as presented.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Dean Chance permanently plays with the "Angels" now. With strict no-trade protection this time. http://www.latimes.com/sports/sportsnow/la-sp-sn-dean-chance-angels-cy-young-winner-dies-20151011-story.html
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Hoyer and McLeod both got 5 year deals too: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/09/cubs-sign-theo-epstein-to-five-year-extension.html I wonder what bearing this had on McLeod's interview here in Minnesota...
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    If you're not willing to give Epstein a 5 year contract in these circumstances, with his overall record, you are pretty much never willing to give a 5 year contract to anyone, ever.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't there is much like that you can conclude from this sample, other than he wasn't overmatched once he got his feet wet. The hope is he builds on this level of performance, I am sure, either as a starter or reliever. Or perhaps that he has rebuilt some trade value. I'm not sure Meyer couldn't have performed like he has so far had he stayed in Minnesota, given a logical and consistent usage plan. It was mostly the plan I wasn't optimistic about anymore (although I hoped the new front office hire would get a crack at that -- Falvey in particular might have had some ideas for Meyer).
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think anyone is claiming MacPhail was perfect, just that he had an overall positive record here. And every World Series team in history is probably the beneficiary of good luck. His Cubs did come close to the World Series in 2003, closer than the Twins have come since MacPhail left. And while MacPhail obviously can't take too much credit for things after he left those jobs, both the Cubs and Orioles made the playoffs the first year after he left with rosters he largely built, which somewhat offsets leaving the 1994-1995 Twins in a bad position when considering his career record.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, when he pulled Santana last night, I figured that puts to rest the theory that he's trying to grind out marginal wins to help save his job. Still, his quick hook seems unequally applied to Berrios. Some of the other pitchers have been allowed to run up 90-100 pitches just to get through the 5th this month -- very doubtful they get pulled at 77 pitches with 2 out in the 5th, or pinch hit in a meaningless situation in the top of the 5th, even if they would have been removed not long after. I wonder if Molitor isn't reacting to the Sep. 5th game against KC, where Berrios gave up 3 run HR with 2 outs in the 5th, and he's now in the mindset of pulling him too early rather than too late? Of course, Berrios was at 88 pitches and facing Morales in that situation, as compared to 77 pitches and facing Dyson a couple nights ago...
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    That could be. Nolasco actually had 3 similar months by FIP with the Twins, and his September for the Angels still has a higher xFIP than those (suggesting he's benefitting in part from an unusually low HR rate at the moment): http://www.fangraphs.com/splitstool.aspx?playerid=3830&position=P&splitArr=&strgroup=month&type=2&startDate=2006-4-5&endDate=2016-9-29 It has been his best month ever by wOBA, and it has been his second most successful month by ERA, though (his only better one was August 2013 with the Dodgers), and 4th best month by WHIP (although one of his better WHIP months was April this season with the Twins!): http://www.fangraphs.com/splitstool.aspx?playerid=3830&position=P&splitArr=&strgroup=month&type=1&startDate=2006-4-5&endDate=2016-9-29
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Meyer's last start of the year, a rematch vs. Oakland. 3 hits led to 2 runs in the first, but Meyer shut them out after that. Only 4 innings, 78 pitches (must still be on a Molitor-style pitch count ), but also only 1 walk, his lowest total/rate so far. 4 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 5 K, 78 pitches, 46 strikes His final line for LA this year: 21.2 IP, 17 H, 11 R*, 13 BB, 24 K, 4.57 ERA (4 of his runs were inherited, actually Angels relievers allowed all 4 runners they inherited from Meyer to score. Meyer left with a cumulative 2.19 run expectancy in those situations, so probably only 1 or maybe 2 can reasonably be attributed to his relievers.)
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, the Nishioka signing prompted the Hardy for Hoey trade. Not sure there was any great need for Nishi before that...
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I think it took a bit more than luck to take Griffith's collection of players and get two titles out of them, plus two more competitive seasons in 1988 and 1992. Or at least, MacPhail put them in good position to take advantage of good luck? Also, Radke, Hunter, Koskie, Guardado, and Hawkins were all drafted in the MacPhail era too, so he didn't leave the cupboard completely bare.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Ervin Santana was pulled tonight after 5 innings and 77 pitches, in what became loss number 102, so maybe Molitor is just trying to do some intensive bullpen auditions?
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Molitor Math: Latin pitcher + Latin catcher = Victory!
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    The Cleveland front office was not known for its acumen, that decade or several of the preceding ones. We did trade them Jay Bell, a 19 year old shortstop who was barely a year removed from being the #8 overall pick in the draft, more than holding his own at high-A at the time (and moved up to AA for Cleveland without missing a beat). Could Nick Gordon be a part of a "total junk" trade package this winter?
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    The optimistic part is that perhaps Molitor senses his job isn't as secure as has been reported, if he really sees a difference between 99 and 100 losses, or 102 and 103 losses. If his job were truly secure, I presume he would have been told by now in no uncertain terms that he won't be held responsible for further 2016 losses attributed to a prospect like Berrios.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Blyleven was actually acquired in 1985, and he was a career 127 ERA+ pitcher at the time in the midst of a 128 ERA+ season (and coming off of a 144 the year before). Third place Cy Young finishes both seasons. The bulk of a Hall of Fame case already established. You might be selling him short here. He's really nowhere near Santana, Hughes, Nolasco, or any of the pitchers on this winter's list, which was the context of that comment and this discussion.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Erickson turned out to be a pretty effective workhorse for a decade. The shape of his career was admittedly a bit weird, but I'm not sure I'd be disappointed if Berrios basically doesn't miss a start for the next 10 years and posts a 105 ERA+ in that span. Radke would be a step up from that, I suppose, although the difference isn't as great as it might seem. Radke's career ERA+ was 113. The big difference is that Radke's effectiveness lasted an extra two years, while Erickson got hurt at 32 and hung around until the bitter end. Ervin Santana was maybe another step below (career 101 ERA+) although he's showing signs of better longevity right now.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I thought that 5/75 was a bit high since he's come down to earth a bit this season, but 4/50 was probably in play, maybe even 4/60. Most definitely agreed on the QO if it is offered. Fortunately for Ramos, the Nats don't have much in the way of internal replacements (Pedro Severino is young and interesting but probably not the type of prospect they want to rely on), so they might be forced to make a fair bid for Ramos even if they don't make a QO.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I think he would have easily topped 3/30 if not for the injury. Yeah, he was bad in 2015, but that was more of an outlier than his 2016 has been in the other direction. (66 OPS+ after a career 104 mark entering that season, as compared to 123 this year after after a career 93 mark entering the season) I'll add the Red Sox are not necessarily "set" at the position unless you buy Sandy Leon's remarkable turnaround. And you don't have to limit the market to "over-spenders" if you are only talking a total contract value of $40-50 mil or whatever. Almost every team in baseball can afford that if they want to, and probably has doled it out recently -- heck, the super-frugal Pirates gave their catcher a 3/31 extension early.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    First time seems like a bit of an exaggeration. Ramos spent full seasons in MLB with zero days on the disabled list in both 2011 and 2015, prior to 2016. (Not to mention most of his minor league career?) He obviously wasn't an iron man but he acquitted himself pretty well in playing time outside his knee surgery in 2012, and then his hamstring issues in the first half of 2013 (related to the knee surgery perhaps?). You also have to remember Ramos is exclusively playing catcher in the non-DH league. First 5 full seasons, starts at catcher: Posey 483 Mauer 481 Ramos 417 A little on the low side, but not remarkably so. Obviously that his leg has failed again in 2016 is a bad sign, and just before FA is rotten luck. Hope he still gets a decent contract, and comes back strong.
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