Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,669

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    74

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Another interesting tidbit on the Dozier and Bautista tangent. Bautista's age 29 season was his high career high, by far, in terms of isolated power. 50 points higher than his next best season (the following year). Fortunately for Bautista, in his breakout he had also made significant strides in BB and K rates, and was likely to improve on that career low BABIP going forward too. Unfortunately for Dozier, his age 29 performance boost is based almost entirely on isolated power, about 90 points higher than his next best season. Still, it's not as insane as Bautista's was, and while his BABIP is a career high, it's still lower than league average so maybe he can keep some of those gains.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    The context was his trade value, though. Put another way: the trade market is "clearly" going to view 2016 as his "likely" career year.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    No, you make some fair points. It's not necessarily a diss on Dozier, it's just a reality of his age and components. In the context of discussing his trade value, I think it's fair to note that. He can still be useful/valuable going forward, but he's got a tough case to make for "top 50 trade value".
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Bautista put up a 165 wRC+ in his age-29 breakout, compared to Dozier's 142, and more importantly, Bautista was walking almost as much as he struck out. (And indeed his walks went on to exceed his strikeouts the very next season, and several more times too.) Bautista achieved that level of performance with a career-low .233 BABIP, while Dozier is achieving his with a career-high .287. I don't think there are nearly as many indicators that Dozier can maintain this level of performance. Not all breakouts are created equal. I think it's pretty fair to use the word "clearly" here to emphasize that point. (I'd guess virtually all 29 year old baseball players are "likely" to perform worse in the future, so it's not particularly meaningful to apply that term so broadly.)
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    On the other hand, McLeod accepted the interview, when just a couple years ago he declined consideration for his hometown GM job in San Diego. http://www.espn.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/11159119/jason-mcleod-cubs-senior-vice-president-player-development-amateur-scouting-withdraws-name-san-diego-padres-general-manager-search At this point, though, I am wondering more if McLeod will be interviewing Pohlad, more than the other way around...
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Judging by her current position with MLB, Ng is probably more of an administrative type, which can be useful but probably isn't what the Twins need right now.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    And more to the point, I don't think the Twins current front office probably has any idea. What benchmark does Terry Ryan and Rob Antony have for judging Goin's performance? They've never worked with another analytics department. Goin's department should be up for serious review by the new hire as much as any.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    He is actually still on a 70-something pitch count. Still wasn't efficient Tuesday, but note all the runs came in the first two innings. He settled down a bit for the 3rd and 4th. It will be interesting to see him without the pitch count although that may realistically be spring 2017 at this point.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    That was a July trade, though. It was known that there was a pennant race and postseason for Zobrist to have an effect on. Not so for an off season trade.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    The Howie Kendrick trade is probably worthy of mention and analysis, but it was actually part of a 3-team deal and thus fairly complicated. Dee Gordon was probably the more notable second baseman moved in that transaction too.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Back to Meyer, he starts again tonight (Tuesday Sep. 13), this time against a contender (Seattle), at 9 PM CST. "Still building his pitch count" according to MLB.com, so you probably won't have to stay up too late watching him.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Note that I said "upper minors" (AAA), and I also meant to refer specifically to position players. I don't think it's all that common. Usually it's to send a message after a recent stretch of bad performance, injury, and/or a prelude to cutting the player. Recent Twins examples: 2015: Arcia, Pinto 2014: Colabello, Florimon 2013: Hicks 2012: Dozier It's most definitely a doghouse spot, and for Walker to be in it at this point is odd.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe we should have assigned Walker to Cedar Rapids again, for their championship drive...
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    But he's only been at that level for ~4 months. The choice at this point is whether we should bet on it continuing or not...
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Donaldson had a slightly "down" year in 2014 just preceding the trade (127 OPS+), but his 2013 was a match for Dozier's 2016. I don't know if any potential trade partners will apply such a strict recency bias to conclude Dozier now is way ahead of Donaldson then.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    "So, it says here in the Cubs media guide that you..."
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    That makes some sense on opening day 2016. Not so much by June and July...
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Suzuki just started at DH, so there might have been a little room there.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I just stumbled on Bregman's batting line today myself. Very nice rookie contributor right now! Vital with Correa banged up a bit (man, what an embarrassment of riches in that infield...). Looks like Gurriel has started off pretty well too.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Here's the PP story: http://www.twincities.com/2016/09/09/alex-anthopoulos-out-of-running-for-twins-gm/
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I'd give the edge to Dozier over Span too, but it pretty much comes down to the market. Hopefully a new front office will give us some confidence that they are being aggressive looking for opportunities -- it feels like that's how most of the best deals happen.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    2011, actually. His absence almost certainly led to a bit of slump upon his return that year, but I generally think his performance wasn't affected too much. His offensive game first tailed off in 2010.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    That's another good comparable, although Kendrick is a little more complicated because it was a 3-team deal. (It gets reported as two separate deals, but they were consummated together on the same day.) The Marlins, the team giving up Heaney, received Dee Gordon among others, and the Dodgers received Austin Barnes among others in addition to Kendrick.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    This isn't quite accurate. Dozier was promoted in early May after only 28 games at AAA, at which time he was hitting .276/.339/.371 for a .710 OPS. Not great, but pretty good for a shortstop in his AAA debut. After Dozier scuffled in MLB he returned to AAA for 20 games in August, during which he compiled a .171/.210/.289, .499 OPS line which reduced his season AAA numbers to those you reference. And Dozier notably was not called back to Minnesota when rosters expanded that September.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Didn't realize this was a Meyer thread! Anyway, I had a Dozier and Meyer related thought -- Dozier presently has some similarities to Span circa 2012. In 5 career seasons at that point, Span had 17.2 bWAR; Dozier has 18 (in about ~300 more PA). A lot of that was Dozier's poor rookie season, though -- Dozier had a bigger advantage over the previous 4 seasons (17.3 to 12.9), although about half that advantage is due to PA (Span missing time in 2011 due to the concussion). An even closer inspection suggests the two were a fairly close match in offensive effectiveness prior to Dozier's recent insane HR binge. Span managed a 5 bWAR season in 2012, mostly thanks to defense, while Dozier will finish at 6+ bWAR this year. Span was going to turn 29 the following February; Dozier turns 30 next May. Span had two more guaranteed years at $11.25 mil total, plus a $9 mil club option ($500k buyout). Dozier has two years left at $15 mil total. So in terms of what kind of deal could realistically get done, I would expect a Dozier trade return to be closer to the Span return, rather than the elite package that we would demand/prefer.
×
×
  • Create New...