Otto von Ballpark

In his last official start (versus the Mets), Molitor also pulled Berrios after only 4 IP and 80 pitches so he could pinch hit Logan Schafer with two outs and nobody on base. Berrios is obviously still a work in progress, but it does seem like Molitor is employing an unusually short hook for him.

It would be a pretty weird limit, if that was the case. As Thrylos notes, he was at 77 pitches for the game, which he has matched or exceeded in all of his MLB starts this year except the 3 times he got knocked out super-early. Plus he was only at 18 pitches for the inning, and as noted, he already had 2 outs.

It's not a matter of them being conniving. It's just a matter of comfort. And once we establish there is a need to go outside, they might be most comfortable with the outside hire who is interested in making the least amount of waves. (Again, that's not my take on Falvey yet, but that's how I understand that concern.)

Don't worry, the Twins still have a week to make the significance of the 100 loss threshold seem quaint by comparison.

It's not a binary, either-or thing. There are degrees of maintaining the status quo, and one of those degrees would be hiring a less aggressive outside candidate. I don't share that particular fear of Falvey at this point, however.

You are correct, but he was actually the #3 pick in the now-discontinued January draft. Not sure how that #3 would translate to the standard June draft...

I was planning on attending Sunday, so I was rooting for them to win Saturday and stay at 99 for another day. Unfortunately, the 100 loss vibe Sunday was skewed by the Vikings win...

I agree that earlier is good, as there are a number of changes this team needs to make that can't wait until November. But I wonder why the speculation is that McLeod wouldn't leave Chicago before November, but Falvey will leave playoff-bound Cleveland before the season is even over? Neither one seems like they'd be in a position to actually do anything for their respective teams during the postseason. I assume they'd both get invited to the executive suite throughout, plus a World Series ring if it comes to that. I see Berardino and Bollinger are both saying "nothing's official" so maybe they are trying to postpone this a bit, although it would be hard to postpone it too long.

McLeod worked in the Padres front office on two separate occasions, in addition to his stints with the Red Sox and Cubs. Not that it should much matter -- if a guy looks like he might have the skills to set up a good drafting and development show here, does it really matter what MLB contracts his bosses handed out at past gigs? If you insist on "small market payroll experience" as a requirement, you'd basically be cutting off hiring front office talent away from many of the consistently best organizations in baseball.

Doesn't sound like it: https://twitter.com/DWolfsonKSTP/status/780433350896910336

MLBTR and Keith Law are saying Falvey to the Twins now too, specifically as president of baseball ops: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/09/derek-falvey-favorite-twins-front-office.html

FWIW, Mauer does much better at B-Ref (2.2 WAR) than Fangraphs. Vargas still beats him prorating his WAR to the same number of PA, but not by much (2.6 to 2.2), and that's a pretty big gulf to cover by prorating...

Cleveland certainly doesn't feel comfortable paying for more than a mid-rotation starter in free agency (probably not even that), Josh Tomlin is their only drafted starter, Danny Salazar is their only other "homegrown" starter (international FA), and both were drafted/signed 10 years ago while assistant GM Derek Falvey was still in college. I don't doubt that we need to get better at drafting and we should look at that, just saying that the focus on drafting and "homegrown"-ness of players probably obscures the bigger problem of development. (It's obviously complicated, though.)

Right. But development doesn't necessarily have a ton to do with whether they are strictly "homegrown" as in originally signed/drafted by the club. Tons of great teams and players would fail the "homegrown" test in the starting pitching department. The better list than "no homegrown starters since Radke and Garza", would be "no good young starters since Garza" (or Baker), homegrown or otherwise. If the Twins had actually produced some guys like Santana, Liriano, Milton, Mays, Lohse, and Silva these past few years, we likely wouldn't be having this conversation.

I know. I also know virtually nothing about swing or pitch mechanics. I'm just a fan who likes to discuss my team, that's all. And from where I sit, admittedly a long ways away, it looks like Falvey could be riskier than McLeod.

When is the Yankees job opening up? McLeod almost certainly can't afford to be passing up a lot of GM opportunities now, hoping for an elite one later. By the time Cashman is gone, there will likely be multiple names around the league held in the same esteem as McLeod's, perhaps even one in the Yankees own front office. Also, when was the last time an elite franchise's front office was that unstable as to require hiring an unproven outsider? Most times, they have an internal line of succession or get a proven outside (Epstein to the Cubs, Dombrowski to the Red Sox, etc.). And if the Yankees or whomever really want McLeod, they could poach him from Minnesota just as easily as from his current position with the Cubs.

From my list above -- big bonus differences were Kalish in 2006, Middlebrooks in 2007, Westmoreland in 2008, and a few odd names in 2010 (David Renfroe, Madison Younginer, Kendal Volz, and Brandon Jacobs). Moreover, outside of Westmoreland's $2 mil and perhaps Renfroe's $1.4 mil, I'm not sure Twins management would have turned down any of those requested outlays if TR/Smith had argued for them. Note the Twins somehow managed to go way above slot for BJ Hermsen. The financial advantage here, while it exists, is hardly worth noting in an examination of McLeod's record.

More on this... Draft bonuses http://www.angelfire.com/vt/prospectwatch/index888.html 2004 20. Minnesota, Trevor Plouffe, ss, Crespi Carmelite HS, Northridge, Calif.(1,500,000) 22. Minnesota, Glen Perkins, lhp, Minnesota.(1,425,000) 25. Minnesota, Kyle Waldrop, rhp, Farragut HS, Knoxville, Tenn.(1,000,000) 35. Minnesota, Matthew Fox, rhp, Central Florida (950,000) 39. Minnesota, Jay Rainville, rhp, Bishop Hendricken, Pawtucket, R.I. (875,000) 61. Minnesota, Anthony Swarzak, rhp, Nova HS, Fort Lauderdale, Fla. (575,000) 65. Boston, Dustin Pedroia, ss, Arizona St. (575,000) 2005 (23) BOS Jacoby Ellsbury of Oregon State U. OR (1,400,000) (25) MIN Matt Garza rhp Fresno State U. CA (1,350,000) (26) BOS Craig Hansen rhp St. John's U. NY (1,325,000) (39) MIN Henry Sanchez 1b Mission Bay HS, San Diego CA (42) BOS Clay Buchholz rhp Angelina (Texas) JC TX (800,000) (45) BOS Jed Lowrie 2b Stanford U. CA (762,000) (47) BOS Michael Bowden rhp Waubonsie Valley HS, Aurora, Ill. IL (730,000) (54) MIN Paul Kelly ss Flower Mound (Texas) HS TX (650,000) (57) BOS Jon Egan c Cross Creek HS, Hephzibah, GA (625,000) (73) MIN Kevin Slowey rhp Winthrop U. SC (495,000) (80) MIN Drew Thompson ss Jupiter Community HS, Tequesta, Fla. FL (475,000) (84) MIN Brian Duensing LHP U. of Nebraska NE (400,000) 2006 20. Minnesota — Chris Parmelee, OF, Chino Hills (Calif.) H.S.(1,500,000) 27. Boston — Jason Place, OF, Wren (S.C.) H.S.(1,300,000) 28. Boston — Daniel Bard, RHP, North Carolina(1,500,000) 40. Boston — Kristofer Johnson, LHP, Wichita State (850,000) 44. Boston — Caleb Clay, RHP, Cullman H.S., Alabama (775,000) 64. Minnesota — William Benson, LF, Joliet Catholic Academy, Plainfield, Ill. (575,000) 71. Boston — Justin Masterson, RHP, San Diego St. (510,000) 83. Boston — Aaron Bates, 1B, N.C. State (440,000) 96. Minnesota — Tyler Robertson, LHP, Bella Vista (Calif.) HS (405,500) 103. Boston — Bryson Cox, RHP, Rice (250,000) 119. Minnesota — Whitney Robbins, 1B, Georgia Tech (265,000) 126. Minnesota — Garrett Olson, 3B, Franklin Pierce (250,000) 133. Boston — Jonathan Still, C-OF, N.C. State (225,000) 156. Minnesota— Devin Shepherd, RF, Oxnard (Calif.) HS. 163. Boston— Dustin Richardson, LHP, Texas Tech. (107,000) 186. Minnesota— Jeffrey Christy, C, Nebraska. (25,000) 193. Boston— Zachary Daeges, 3B, Creighton.(30,000) 216. Minnesota— Jonathan Waltenbury, 1B, Henry Street HS, Bowmanville, Ontario.(128,000) 223. Boston— Kristopher Negron, SS, Cosumnes River College. (105,000) 246. Minnesota— Brian Dinkelman, 2B, McKendree. (13,000) 253. Boston— Rafael Cabreja, CF, James Monroe HS, New York.(65,000) 276. Minnesota— Sean Land, LHP, Kansas.(70,000) 283. Boston— Ryan Kalish, CF, Red Bank Catholic HS, Shrewsbury, N.J. (600,000) 2007 28 Twins Ben Revere OF ($750,000) 55 Red Sox Nick Hagadone LHP ($571,500) 62 Red Sox Ryan Dent SS (571,000) 84 Red Sox Hunter Morris 3B AUBURN (did not sign) 92 Twins Danny Rams C ($375,000) 114 Red Sox Brock Huntzinger RHP ($225,000) 122 Twins Angel Morales OF ($234,000) 144 Red Sox Chris Province RHP ($120,000) 152 Twins Reggie Williams OF ($153,000) 174 Red Sox Will Middlebrooks RHP ($925,000) 182 Twins Nathan Striz RHP NORTH CAROLINA (did not sign) 204 Red Sox Anthony Rizzo 1B ($325,000) 212 Twins Mike McCardell RHP ($75,000) 234 Red Sox David Mailman 1B ($550,000) 242 Twins Daniel Berlind RHP ($80,000) 264 Red Sox Adam Mills RHP ($25,000) 272 Twins Danny Lehmann C ($100,000) 294 Red Sox Kade Keowen OF ($123,000) 302 Twins Steve Hirschfeld RHP ($55,000) 324 Red Sox Ken Roque SS ($70,000) 332 Twins Blair Erickson RHP ($15,000) 2008 14. Twins Aaron Hicks OF/RHP Sr. B-R 6-2 170 Woodrow Wilson HS Long Beach, Calif. 10-2-89 SIGNED $1,780,000 30. Red Sox Casey Kelly SS/RHP Sr. R-R 6-3 190 Sarasota HS Sarasota, Fla. 10-4-89 SIGNED $3,000,000 31. Twins Shooter Hunt RHP Jr. R-R 6-3 205 Tulane U. Wyckoff, N.J. 8-16-86 SIGNED $1,080,000 45. Red Sox Bryan Price RHP Jr. R-R 6-4 200 Rice U. Marble Falls, Texas 11-13-86 SIGNED $849,000 60. Twins Tyler Ladendorf SS So. R-R 6-2 210 Howard (Texas) JC Des Plaines, Ill. 3-7-88 SIGNED $673,000 77. Red Sox Derrik Gibson SS Sr. R-R 6-1 170 Seaford HS Seaford, Del. 12-5-89 SIGNED $600,000 85. Red Sox Stephen Fife RHP Jr. R-R 6-3 210 U. of Utah Boise, Idaho 10-4-86 SIGNED $464,000 92. Twins Bobby Lanigan RHP Jr. R-R 6-4 215 Adelphi (N.Y.) U. Staten Island, N.Y. 5-5-87 SIGNED $417,000 108. Red Sox Kyle Weiland RHP Jr. L-R 6-4 195 U. of Notre Dame Albuquerque, N.M. 9-12-86 SIGNED $322,000 126. Twins Daniel Ortiz OF Sr. L-L 5-11 165 Benjamin Harrison HS Cayey, P.R. 1-5-90 SIGNED $253,000 142. Red Sox Peter Hissey OF Sr. L-L 6-0 165 Unionville HS West Chester, Pa. 1-17-90 Virginia 156. Twins Nick Romero 3B Jr. B-R 6-1 200 San Diego State U. Chula Vista, Calif. 7-15-87 SIGNED $179,000 172. Red Sox Ryan Westmoreland OF Sr. L-R 6-2 180 Portsmouth HS Portsmouth, R.I. 4-27-90 SIGNED $2,000,000 186. Twins B.J. Hermsen RHP Sr. R-R 6-5 225 West Delaware HS Masonville, Iowa 12-1-89 SIGNED $650,000 202. Red Sox Ryan Lavarnway C/OF Jr. R-R 6-3 210 Yale U. Woodland Hills, Calif. 8-7-87 SIGNED $325,000 216. Twins Dan Osterbrock LHP Jr. R-L 6-3 186 U. of Cincinnati Cincinnati 1-27-87 SIGNED $121,000 232. Red Sox Tim Federowicz C/RHP Jr. R-R 5-10 198 U. of North Carolina Apex, N.C. 8-5-87 SIGNED $150,000 246. Twins Jeff Lanning C So. R-R 6-2 210 U. of New Orleans Ankeny, Iowa 1-1-87 SIGNED $105,000 262. Red Sox Michael Lee RHP Jr. R-R 6-6 190 Oklahoma City U. Bellevue, Wash. 11-18-86 SIGNED $100,000 276. Twins Mike Gonzales 1B So. L-R 6-6 235 Diablo Valley (Calif.) JC Brentwood, Calif. 6-16-88 SIGNED $85,000 292. Red Sox Christian Vazquez C Sr. R-R 5-9 195 P.R. Baseball Academy Caguas, P.R. 8-21-90 SIGNED $80,000 306. Twins Evan Bigley 3B/OF Jr. R-R 6-1 180 Dallas Baptist U. Lancaster, Texas 3-9-87 SIGNED $75,000 322. Red Sox Pete Ruiz RHP So. R-R 6-3 205 Santa Barbara (Ca.) CC Rough and Ready, Calif. 8-21-87 SIGNED $100,000 2009 22 22 Minnesota Twins Kyle Gibson RHP Missouri Greenfield, Ind. C $1,800,000 28 28 Boston Red Sox Reymond Fuentes OF Fernando Callejo HS Manati, P.R. HS $1,134,000 14 46 Minnesota Twins Matt Bashore LHP Indiana Tipp City, Ohio C $751,500 21 70 Minnesota Twins Billy Bullock RHP Florida Davie, Fla. C $522,000 28 77 Boston Red Sox Alex Wilson RHP Texas A&M Hurricane, W.Va. C $470,700 21 101 Minnesota Twins Ben Tootle RHP Jacksonville State Oxford, Ala. C $324,900 27 107 Boston Red Sox David Renfroe SS South Panola HS Batesville, Miss. HS $1,400,000 Mississippi 21 132 Minnesota Twins Derek McCallum 2B Minnesota Shoreview, Minn. C $209,700 27 138 Boston Red Sox Jeremy Hazelbaker OF Ball State Selma, Ind. C $191,700 21 162 Minnesota Twins Tobias Streich C West Virginia Ridgway, Pa. C (2) $150,000 27 168 Boston Red Sox Seth Schwindenhammer OF Limestone Community HS Bartonville, Ill. HS $140,000 Illinois 21 192 Minnesota Twins Chris Herrmann C Miami (Fla.) Tomball, Texas C $135,000 27 198 Boston Red Sox Branden Kline RHP Gov. Thomas Johnson HS Frederick, Md. HS Did Not Sign Virginia 21 222 Minnesota Twins Brad Stillings RHP Kent State Washington Courthouse, Ohio C $125,000 27 228 Boston Red Sox Madison Younginer RHP Maudlin HS Mauldin, S.C. HS $975,000 Clemson 21 252 Minnesota Twins Brian Dozier SS Southern Mississippi Fulton, Miss. C (4) $30,000 27 258 Boston Red Sox Shannon Wilkerson OF Augusta State (Ga.) Dacula, Ga. C $100,000 21 282 Minnesota Twins Nick Lockwood SS Tampa Jesuit HS Tampa, Fla. HS $125,000 South Florida 27 288 Boston Red Sox Kendal Volz RHP Baylor Bulverde, Texas C $550,000 21 312 Minnesota Twins Blake Dean OF Louisiana State Crestview, Fla. C 27 318 Boston Red Sox Brandon Jacobs OF Parkview HS Lilburn, Ga. HS $750,000 Auburn (FB) * bonus found at http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Henry_Sanchez

Still not sure how legit that is. Sure, the Red Sox had a higher draft budget, but he hasn't been with the Red Sox since 2009, and he's been working under draft pool restrictions since 2012. (Not to mention, involvement in the development of those players would probably overwhelm any draft bonus advantage.)

Mauer doesn't lead the team in OBP, unless you insist on a strict 502 PA threshold for consideration, in which case your sample is pretty meaningless as it is limited to Mauer and Dozier. (By the same threshold, Mauer is last on the team in a lot of categories too. ) I'm not sure what qualifier threshold B-Ref uses when you sort stats on a team page (340 PA?), but out of 10 guys, Mauer is 2nd to Grossman in OBP, 5th in AVG, 9th in SLG and ISO, 5th in OPS+/wRC+, 8th in base running runs, etc. All for an offense that is 9th, just a tick below average, in run scoring. (He does grade out well in fielding runs, although on a per-game basis he's behind the admittedly small sample of Park, and by virtue of his positional adjustment, he's still negative dWAR.) It would be stupid to cut him right now, but a role reduction might be wise. At least while you are "rebuilding" and trying to evaluate other assets. If nothing else materializes, you can always plug him back in as a decent OBP-only 1B/DH option whenever you need to.

Even then, I'm not sure it's correct. Baker was comfortably above average with the Twins. I guess he was drafted before Garza but obviously his Twins tenure extended well after. (Slowey too was a borderline average starter through 2010.) Also, I don't get the obsession with "homegrown". The much-praised Cleveland rotation is mostly not "homegrown". The generally successful Twins starting staffs from 2001-2006 weren't "homegrown" except for Radke. I'm not convinced that drafting is the definitive failure here.

My fear is that this decision could be based on: 1) Falvey talking a better game than McLeod 2) Familiarity via the AL Central 3) Willingness/ability to work under frugal payroll constraints

Thanks for the link. I am mildly concerned because Falvey is simply named in that article as the administrative head ("And Derek Falvey, the Indians’ director of baseball operations and, in the eyes of many, a future general manager, oversees the Indians’ whole pitching program."). How much was really his doing, or is he just the well-spoken administrator who mostly got lucky with the people working underneath him? It's hard to know, because Falvey has only been with Cleveland exclusively in his baseball career, and not for very long (started as an intern out of college in November 2007). By comparison, McLeod has been around the pro game longer (started with the Padres in 1994, was running Red Sox drafts by 2004), and Epstein/Hoyer have already plucked him for their organizations 3 different times. I guess that's no evidence he could be an effective administrator or "top dog" but it feels like he has a better set of qualifications overall.

We would have had a real chance at 100 losses given a full 162 game schedule in 1995. 88 losses in 144 games prorates to 99 over 162.

Meyer's first attempt at pitching into the 6th inning led to trouble tonight -- 2 consecutive 4 pitch walks ended his night. Then former Twin Deolis Guerra did him no favors by allowing all 3 inherited runners to score. Through 5 he was pretty effective: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 4 K, 70 pitches, 42 strikes Final line 5.1 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 4 K, 82 pitches, 45 strikes